Prime LeBron James is the most resilient scorer in NBA History

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Re: Prime LeBron James is the most resilient scorer in NBA History 

Post#141 » by Heej » Wed Apr 17, 2024 10:14 pm

OldSchoolNoBull wrote:
Heej wrote:
OldSchoolNoBull wrote:
The thing is, even if what you say is accurate, you are still comparing one era to another here. That is not era-relativity. In order to know the things you're talking about - what schemes were more modern vs what weren't, etc - you'd have to know what happened in the league after player x(in this case Jordan) played.

In era-relativity, you are comparing the player only to the league he played in. That's it. I know people have strong feelings for and against that, but for those of us that support such a worldview, there are important reasons for it that go far beyond the scope of a Jordan/LeBron debate. If you don't ascribe to era-relativity, then eventually, whether it's in 20 or 50 years, there will come a time when people make Top 100 lists that don't have a single pre-merger player on them. Even now, there are plenty of people that don't think Russell belongs in the Top 10, and flat out role their eyes at 50s players like Mikan/Cousy/Schayes/Arizin/Sharman making a Top 100.

Now, having said all that, there is truth in the point that Ohayo makes, that if you're evaluating based on era-relative dominance, then Russell is #1. I can live with that.



Just to zoom into this passage - the triangle obviously was very important, and you can see that reflected in the team offenses skyrocketing once Phil took over and implemented it, but its success is not independent of Jordan. I would point out that Jordan was producing elite scoring numbers before playing in the triangle, and that that same triangle produced worse offenses in 94 and 95 when he wasn't playing. Here are the rORtgs:

85: +0.8
86: +1.4
87: +0.3
88: +1.0
89: +1.3
90: +4.2
91: +6.7
92: +7.3
93: +4.9
94: -0.2
95: +1.2
96: +7.6
97: +7.6
98: +2.7

I would argue that the triangle did more to improve the offensive performance of his teammates than it did him. He would've been an all-world offensive player anywhere.

I'm telling you that looking at the specific coaching and roster advantages Jordan had relative to his opponents and comparing that to what LeBron had is the actual way to do era-relativity correctly. Because basketball has been iterated on and more "solved" to an extent now so we can look back and using modern knowledge identif which teams were structurally advantaged or disadvantaged


But can you see that in that approach, you're still comparing one era to another? That's not era-relativity, not in the way I see most people approach it.

The very idea that basketball has been "solved" inherently sympathizes with more recent players and teams. It celebrates the game of the last of 15-20 years and compares everything else, mostly unfavorably, to it.

In regards to the triangle improving his teammates more than him, sure you can say that if you only reduce basketball to isolated matchups (the common fallacy for 95% of basketball fans I find nowadays) and not on the reflexive feedback loops inherent to the nature of the game itself.

And I'm not sure it didn't help Jordan seeing as how it helped reduce his turnovers via simplifying reads and keeping defenses more honest while also allowing him more catch and shoot created jumpers that preserved his body for deeper runs and extended series'. Also his TS% in the playoffs during his first stint was slightly better overall than pre.


I'm not just looking at isolated matchups, I'm looking at several of his key teammates' scoring efficiency before and after triangle and I see, maybe not huge, but noticeable upticks. With MJ, two of his four highest RS rTSs(including #1) came pre-triangle, in 88 and 89. And contrary to what you said, his playoff TS peaked in 88 and 89 at 59.8 and 60.2%. It was very marginally lower in 90 and 91 and then fell more as the years went on.

I'm just saying, based on rel ORtg, the Bulls with the triangle and no MJ(94 and 95) look about on par with the Bulls with MJ and no triangle(84-89). Both were needed to get to the next level. I don't for a minute deny the triangle's importance in the Bulls' success, I'm just saying don't give it outsized importance relative to MJ being MJ.

Believe me, I sympathize with your position. But just because a truth can be uncomfortable doesn't make it less true. We simply know thanks to hindsight which teams were ahead of their time and enjoyed era-relative advantages due to it. I know and respect that you don't like that answer but I really don't see anything wrong with it. That's life. We know more as time goes by.

Einstein's theory of relativity was the bees knees when it came out (to everyone but the GOAT Nikola Tesla who was truly ahead of his time LOL) but now we have the benefit of hindsight to know that his equations break down at both the quantum level and universal level (hence dark matter). One could say that this take is biased to modern science but that doesn't change the fact that Tesla was more correct about things than Einstein ya know?

In regards to his playoff TS% you're right that his peaks were better by like .01% lol but his lows were lower compared to the first stint and on average marginally higher while also reducing his TOV% (granted this outside the scope of the discussion but still somewhat relevant).

And as I stated before it appears to me a lot of what was buoying Jordan's TS% pre-triangle was his rim attacking and foul drawing. If the TS% difference is marginal despite that and allows Jordan to save unnecessary wear and tear by supplying created C&S jumpers in lieu of dangerous rim forays that dry up near the end of games I'm not sure how this detracts from Jordan being schematically advantaged and structurally advantaged compared to LeBron from a roster-standpoint relative to era.

Especially when despite all that it's still LeBron coming out on top in this argument when looking at how he arguably produced better vs tougher defenses. I agree with your point that I shouldn't ascribe too much to the triangle. But that's not the Crux of my argument. My argument is based on the fact that Jordan had a host of contextual advantages (competition, defensive quality faced, era-relative roster strength, and era-relative coaching strength) and still doesn't create any meaningful separation from LeBron in the aspect of his game that is his strongest claim to claim.
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Re: Prime LeBron James is the most resilient scorer in NBA History 

Post#142 » by Djoker » Wed Apr 17, 2024 10:16 pm

OldSchoolNoBull wrote:
I'm just saying, based on rel ORtg, the Bulls with the triangle and no MJ(94 and 95) look about on par with the Bulls with MJ and no triangle(84-89). Both were needed to get to the next level. I don't for a minute deny the triangle's importance in the Bulls' success, I'm just saying don't give it outsized importance relative to MJ being MJ.


You made some really good posts in this thread but I just want to add that pre-triangle Bulls teams clearly had much worse supporting casts around Jordan than the triangle teams thanks primarily to the immense growth of Scottie Pippen from 1988/1989 to 1991 and beyond. I don't think it's at all inconceivable, heck it's very likely, that the Bulls in the 90's would have been a great offensive team even without Phil and the triangle. It's not the triangle or MJ that made the Bulls take the next step but the growth of his teammates, mainly Pippen. Even as late as 1998 we have half season samples showing that as well. In 44 games with Pippen, the Bulls had a +5.5 rORtg and in 38 games without Pippen -0.4 rORtg. Now they did get 2.4 points better in DRtg when Pippen DNP indicating a tactical shift so Pippen wasn't worth anywhere close to 6 points on offense but he was probably worth around 2-3 points on offense which is still a lot. It's clear that the Bulls were significantly worse on offense without Pippen because defenses loaded up on MJ, there was no one else who could take the ball in his hands and drive the offense.
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Re: Prime LeBron James is the most resilient scorer in NBA History 

Post#143 » by Heej » Wed Apr 17, 2024 10:19 pm

IlikeSHAIguys wrote:
lessthanjake wrote:
IlikeSHAIguys wrote:does you jumping early for someone from MJ's time really show you're not curving things for MJ?

Saying Lebron is better and played in a much better league but MJ is still better while discounting Mikan and Kareem and Russell for playing in a much worse league is kinda telling everyone what's really going on here


Moses Malone was not really from MJ’s time—at least his best years definitely weren’t (and the vast majority of my discussion pushing him related to those 1978-1983 years). And by the way, to take another example, I also pushed for Rick Barry way before anyone else. The assertion here is just wrong. I’m telling you it’s wrong, and since it’s about something that inherently is within my knowledge specifically (since it is about my own approach), others should simply accept when I say it’s wrong. The fact that I demonstrably favored lots of players from the 1970s more than anyone else did is just icing on the cake here.

I read it as Karl instead of Moses to be honest.

But doing it so how weak a league is matters the least with Jordan even though you also said league got much better from Jordan's time?

I don't wanna play mind reader but it almost seems like you think Lebron is better but you don't wanna say it. Also kinda wierd having all this debate around starting with 2009. Isn't that what people usually say was the start of his prime?

NGL reads to me like he wants Jordan and Jokic to be better than LeBron but is willing to sacrifice Jordan now to prop up Jokic later :rofl:
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Re: Prime LeBron James is the most resilient scorer in NBA History 

Post#144 » by Heej » Wed Apr 17, 2024 10:23 pm

Djoker wrote:
OldSchoolNoBull wrote:
I'm just saying, based on rel ORtg, the Bulls with the triangle and no MJ(94 and 95) look about on par with the Bulls with MJ and no triangle(84-89). Both were needed to get to the next level. I don't for a minute deny the triangle's importance in the Bulls' success, I'm just saying don't give it outsized importance relative to MJ being MJ.


You made some really good posts in this thread but I just want to add that pre-triangle Bulls teams clearly had much worse supporting casts around Jordan than the triangle teams thanks primarily to the immense growth of Scottie Pippen from 1988/1989 to 1991 and beyond. I don't think it's at all inconceivable, heck it's very likely, that the Bulls in the 90's would have been a great offensive team even without Phil and the triangle. It's not the triangle or MJ that made the Bulls take the next step but the growth of his teammates, mainly Pippen. Even as late as 1998 we have half season samples showing that as well. In 44 games with Pippen, the Bulls had a +5.5 rORtg and in 38 games without Pippen -0.4 rORtg. Now they did get 2.4 points better in DRtg when Pippen DNP indicating a tactical shift so Pippen wasn't worth anywhere close to 6 points on offense but he was probably worth around 2-3 points on offense which is still a lot. It's clear that the Bulls were significantly worse on offense without Pippen because defenses loaded up on MJ, there was no one else who could take the ball in his hands and drive the offense.

Seems people got lost in the weeds discussing the triangle when in reality the argument about Jordan's era-relative advantage hinges just as much on the superior era-relative teammates he had compared to LeBron in totality. The coaching advantage simply made up a potent 1-2 Punch that Jordan hagiographers try to gaslight people into thinking was all Jordan.

The fact that LeBron holds up better with less era-relative advantages against the best aspect of Jordan's game really says a lot about a comparison of the two in a vacuum.
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Re: Prime LeBron James is the most resilient scorer in NBA History 

Post#145 » by Lebronnygoat » Wed Apr 17, 2024 10:32 pm

This post is about elite defenses, which the 91 Pistons against Jordan was not. Isiah Thomas, was more like his 5’9 counterpart as a Cleveland Cavalier, seriously just Jason Kidd with below average defense. To be fair, a healthy Isiah Thomas when playing in the RS holds the team to a 104.2 DRTG, and without 106.7. He was a very good defender. Not to mention, Bill Laimbeer was a co anchor with Rodman, and barely played vs Jordan (20 MPG vs 32 in the RS). And in the games Rodman barely played, Jordan averaged 69%TS 32 PPG. Game 1, MJ drops 22 on 53%TS, Rodman played the entire game. Game 2, MJ played extraordinary Rodman played the entire game, 35 PPG 67%TS. Not much merit to MJ’s resilience in 1991. Then vs LA, injured Scott and Worthy isn’t going to cut it either.

1991 Pistons with co anchor Bill barely playing, Rodman playing 16 MPG for half the series, Isiah Thomas being very injured… name the defense this team is somehow better that at defensively for the LeBron series, try. Same logic for the 1991 Lakers.

You can’t, Jordan isn’t resilient or translating like a LeBron against stable, healthy elite defenses (-3 and higher). Then when you get to the all time great defenses, LeBron washes harder.
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Re: Prime LeBron James is the most resilient scorer in NBA History 

Post#146 » by lessthanjake » Wed Apr 17, 2024 10:41 pm

Heej wrote:Comparing league-wide TS% to playoff only TS% seems like an exercise in futility to me considering only the top 16 teams make the playoffs in the first place. Don't see how you can draw many meaningful conclusions from that to a player comparison discussing how individuals held up in the playoffs. A comparison which still appears to favor LeBron Even after all the cherries have been picked.


You made a claim with no evidence (regarding TS% shifts from RS to playoffs in the two eras). I pointed out that the evidence we have does not support the claim in any meaningful way. And you now say that that evidence isn’t good enough and that you’re still right. What’s missing here is any contrary evidence from you. You’re just making broad claims without evidence and then rejecting evidence to the contrary. Of course, you’re free to believe whatever you want, but it’s not a convincing argument vis-a-vis others.

I'm rather confused at how the triangle wouldn't have helped Jordan when his first stint with the Bulls saw his playoff TS% increase and TOV% decrease in the playoffs relative to his pre-triangle days. Trying to reduce comparisons to Jordan's numbers only to pre-triangle title teams smacks of small sample size theater.


First of all, it is objectively untrue that Jordan’s playoff TS% increased with the triangle relative to his pre-triangle days. He had a 58.9% playoff TS% before the triangle, and, even leaving aside the second-three-peat years, he had a 57.7% playoff TS% with the triangle. So your statement here is simply false. Second of all, this thread is specifically about resilience against high rDRTG defenses, and, as I’ve already told you, his rTS% against those teams was higher pre-triangle than it was with the triangle (even without including the second-three-peat years for the triangle).

Seems you're basing this mostly on Jordan's comparatively worse stats in his second threepeat to which I'd say surely there's more context to his production there beyond "muh triangle held him back"


This is a kind of breathtaking statement, given that I keep giving you numbers in which I’m explicitly not including the second-three-peat years and telling you that the data still is contrary to your thesis.

And again, my problem isn't with the idea that there are playoff risers and fallers. That is an inherent truth in basketball. My problem is with how ad-hoc your justifications for applying there criteria to one players' opponents over another's seem to be. But hey, at least you've acknowledged how weird all that was.


Anything subjective is “ad hoc” to a significant extent. For instance, your arguments about the Bulls’s coaching advantages and their purported effects are substantially subjective and “ad hoc.” Not every claim someone makes can be rigorously proven. At the very least, my argument on this isn’t contrary to actual data like your subjective arguments in this thread are. To the contrary actually, I’d also say that following up on the opponent-effort-in-regular-season point I made, I think you’d find that evidence of contemporaneous perception of NBA hierarchy at the time (including the dreaded title odds) would support the notion that we aren’t talking about teams that were seen at the same tier of the league (and therefore we wouldn’t expect them to have engendered the same level of RS effort from opponents).

In regards to your logic one could easily argue that with the teams you listed being primarily veteran teams those same players are often not "getting up" for games either on a night to night basis so the inverse could easily be true where veterans with more rest are able to play harder in the postseason. So I'm not sure what the point of that is, and how that means your era-relative context filters aren't just masked Jordan-relative context filters.


The teams in question for LeBron really weren’t generally very old teams—and certainly not compared to many of the teams we’re talking about Jordan facing. Indeed, if we look at the average age of the 7 players with the most minutes on the middling opponents I identified for LeBron, the average age was 26.5, which is very slightly *below* the league’s average age in that timeframe. Which indicates that the effect you’re positing wouldn’t apply here. Notably, in contrast, if we do the same for the teams in this data set for Jordan, the average age was 28.5, which is significantly above the league’s average age in that timeframe. And it was 27.5 for the teams in the data set that Jordan played pre-triangle. So if being a veteran team is a reason to think the team might do better in the playoffs, then this is actually a point weighing against your arguments here.
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Re: Prime LeBron James is the most resilient scorer in NBA History 

Post#147 » by OhayoKD » Wed Apr 17, 2024 10:43 pm

Lebronnygoat wrote:This post is about elite defenses, which the 91 Pistons against Jordan was not. Isiah Thomas, was more like his 5’9 counterpart as a Cleveland Cavalier, seriously just Jason Kidd with below average defense. To be fair, a healthy Isiah Thomas when playing in the RS holds the team to a 104.2 DRTG, and without 106.7. He was a very good defender. Not to mention, Bill Laimbeer was a co anchor with Rodman, and barely played vs Jordan (20 MPG vs 32 in the RS). And in the games Rodman barely played, Jordan averaged 69%TS 32 PPG. Game 1, MJ drops 22 on 53%TS, Rodman played the entire game. Game 2, MJ played extraordinary Rodman played the entire game, 35 PPG 67%TS. Not much merit to MJ’s resilience in 1991. Then vs LA, injured Scott and Worthy isn’t going to cut it either.

1991 Pistons with co anchor Bill barely playing, Rodman playing 16 MPG for half the series, Isiah Thomas being very injured… name the defense this team is somehow better that at defensively for the LeBron series, try. Same logic for the 1991 Lakers.

You can’t, Jordan isn’t resilient or translating like a LeBron against stable, healthy elite defenses (-3 and higher). Then when you get to the all time great defenses, LeBron washes harder.

This post set a statistcal standard and then misrepreseted which teams met that standard before creating excuses post-hoc.

You undermine your "about" when you cherrypick. If you want to get the 91 Pistons out then use a rolling defensive rating and apply it for everyone, otherwise they stay
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Re: Prime LeBron James is the most resilient scorer in NBA History 

Post#148 » by lessthanjake » Wed Apr 17, 2024 10:45 pm

Heej wrote:
IlikeSHAIguys wrote:
lessthanjake wrote:
Moses Malone was not really from MJ’s time—at least his best years definitely weren’t (and the vast majority of my discussion pushing him related to those 1978-1983 years). And by the way, to take another example, I also pushed for Rick Barry way before anyone else. The assertion here is just wrong. I’m telling you it’s wrong, and since it’s about something that inherently is within my knowledge specifically (since it is about my own approach), others should simply accept when I say it’s wrong. The fact that I demonstrably favored lots of players from the 1970s more than anyone else did is just icing on the cake here.

I read it as Karl instead of Moses to be honest.

But doing it so how weak a league is matters the least with Jordan even though you also said league got much better from Jordan's time?

I don't wanna play mind reader but it almost seems like you think Lebron is better but you don't wanna say it. Also kinda wierd having all this debate around starting with 2009. Isn't that what people usually say was the start of his prime?

NGL reads to me like he wants Jordan and Jokic to be better than LeBron but is willing to sacrifice Jordan now to prop up Jokic later :rofl:


I really just don’t think about these discussions like that, and I think the fact that this sort of thought occurs to you is perhaps telling regarding how you approach basketball discussion.
OhayoKD wrote:Lebron contributes more to all the phases of play than Messi does. And he is of course a defensive anchor unlike messi.
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Re: Prime LeBron James is the most resilient scorer in NBA History 

Post#149 » by IlikeSHAIguys » Wed Apr 17, 2024 10:46 pm

Heej wrote:
IlikeSHAIguys wrote:
lessthanjake wrote:
Moses Malone was not really from MJ’s time—at least his best years definitely weren’t (and the vast majority of my discussion pushing him related to those 1978-1983 years). And by the way, to take another example, I also pushed for Rick Barry way before anyone else. The assertion here is just wrong. I’m telling you it’s wrong, and since it’s about something that inherently is within my knowledge specifically (since it is about my own approach), others should simply accept when I say it’s wrong. The fact that I demonstrably favored lots of players from the 1970s more than anyone else did is just icing on the cake here.

I read it as Karl instead of Moses to be honest.

But doing it so how weak a league is matters the least with Jordan even though you also said league got much better from Jordan's time?

I don't wanna play mind reader but it almost seems like you think Lebron is better but you don't wanna say it. Also kinda wierd having all this debate around starting with 2009. Isn't that what people usually say was the start of his prime?

NGL reads to me like he wants Jordan and Jokic to be better than LeBron but is willing to sacrifice Jordan now to prop up Jokic later :rofl:

Jokic?

They're playing at the same time.
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Re: Prime LeBron James is the most resilient scorer in NBA History 

Post#150 » by OhayoKD » Wed Apr 17, 2024 11:22 pm

lessthanjake wrote:
OhayoKD wrote:Certain people indeed:

Just to drill down on this a bit: LeBron’s teams consistently collapsed defensively in the business end of the playoffs from 2009-2014,but those are pretty generally considered the years of LeBron’s defensive peak (it’s his best span from a DPOY voting standpoint, but also just athletically and by consensus in general).

...
In those later years, LeBron’s teams certainly didn't do badly defensively in late playoff series, but it actually wasn’t quite as consistent as it was in LeBron’s defensive peak. So how does that make sense? People want to give the credit for those defensive performances to LeBron. But if LeBron at his defensive peak and with high-ranked defenses consistently resulted in bad late-stage playoff defenses, then why should we assume that LeBron outside of his defensive peak was somehow the reason his teams actually had some good late-stage playoff performances defensively?

LeBron is clearly better in old age than MJ was. The question is how much that matters.

The arguments that it matters a lot would mostly have to center around one of two things: (1) the extra career value added by being better in old-age seasons; or (2) an implication about what it means about how good they were in their primes.

...

On the question about what it implies about how good they were in their primes (i.e. “Old LeBron is better than old Michael, so prime LeBron must’ve been better than prime Michael”), I don’t really think that there’s any valid point because the context is so different.

And of course, in the same comment I'm replying to...
when I pointed out lots of data showing Steph outdoing LeBron in impact numbers from 2013-2014 onwards


There’s literally nothing in what you quoted that involves me artificially narrowing down LeBron’s prime for rhetorical purposes.


You choosing a definition of "prime" does not change the substance of what is happening. You are shortening the sample for Lebron and finding angles where Lebron is disadvantaged or arguing angles he's advantaged are irrelevant. It is fundamentally the same approach you just called bizarre, except applied more arbitrarily, with less consistency: With quote 3 you went a step further, shortening not only Lebron's career, but Steph's for the specific years where a stat that massively favors Lebron over nearly any time-frame tuns into an argument for Steph's prime over Lebron's

Same energy as having era-relativity matter and matter more and more...as it distances itself from the period you started watching basketball...

IlikeSHAIguys wrote:
Heej wrote:NGL reads to me like he wants Jordan and Jokic to be better than LeBron but is willing to sacrifice Jordan now to prop up Jokic later :rofl:

Jokic?

They're playing at the same time.
[/quote]

Cue gigantically uneven RAPM samples...
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Re: Prime LeBron James is the most resilient scorer in NBA History 

Post#151 » by OldSchoolNoBull » Wed Apr 17, 2024 11:52 pm

Heej wrote:
OldSchoolNoBull wrote:
Heej wrote:I'm telling you that looking at the specific coaching and roster advantages Jordan had relative to his opponents and comparing that to what LeBron had is the actual way to do era-relativity correctly. Because basketball has been iterated on and more "solved" to an extent now so we can look back and using modern knowledge identif which teams were structurally advantaged or disadvantaged


But can you see that in that approach, you're still comparing one era to another? That's not era-relativity, not in the way I see most people approach it.

The very idea that basketball has been "solved" inherently sympathizes with more recent players and teams. It celebrates the game of the last of 15-20 years and compares everything else, mostly unfavorably, to it.

In regards to the triangle improving his teammates more than him, sure you can say that if you only reduce basketball to isolated matchups (the common fallacy for 95% of basketball fans I find nowadays) and not on the reflexive feedback loops inherent to the nature of the game itself.

And I'm not sure it didn't help Jordan seeing as how it helped reduce his turnovers via simplifying reads and keeping defenses more honest while also allowing him more catch and shoot created jumpers that preserved his body for deeper runs and extended series'. Also his TS% in the playoffs during his first stint was slightly better overall than pre.


I'm not just looking at isolated matchups, I'm looking at several of his key teammates' scoring efficiency before and after triangle and I see, maybe not huge, but noticeable upticks. With MJ, two of his four highest RS rTSs(including #1) came pre-triangle, in 88 and 89. And contrary to what you said, his playoff TS peaked in 88 and 89 at 59.8 and 60.2%. It was very marginally lower in 90 and 91 and then fell more as the years went on.

I'm just saying, based on rel ORtg, the Bulls with the triangle and no MJ(94 and 95) look about on par with the Bulls with MJ and no triangle(84-89). Both were needed to get to the next level. I don't for a minute deny the triangle's importance in the Bulls' success, I'm just saying don't give it outsized importance relative to MJ being MJ.

Believe me, I sympathize with your position. But just because a truth can be uncomfortable doesn't make it less true. We simply know thanks to hindsight which teams were ahead of their time and enjoyed era-relative advantages due to it. I know and respect that you don't like that answer but I really don't see anything wrong with it. That's life. We know more as time goes by.

Einstein's theory of relativity was the bees knees when it came out (to everyone but the GOAT Nikola Tesla who was truly ahead of his time LOL) but now we have the benefit of hindsight to know that his equations break down at both the quantum level and universal level (hence dark matter). One could say that this take is biased to modern science but that doesn't change the fact that Tesla was more correct about things than Einstein ya know?

In regards to his playoff TS% you're right that his peaks were better by like .01% lol but his lows were lower compared to the first stint and on average marginally higher while also reducing his TOV% (granted this outside the scope of the discussion but still somewhat relevant).

And as I stated before it appears to me a lot of what was buoying Jordan's TS% pre-triangle was his rim attacking and foul drawing. If the TS% difference is marginal despite that and allows Jordan to save unnecessary wear and tear by supplying created C&S jumpers in lieu of dangerous rim forays that dry up near the end of games I'm not sure how this detracts from Jordan being schematically advantaged and structurally advantaged compared to LeBron from a roster-standpoint relative to era.

Especially when despite all that it's still LeBron coming out on top in this argument when looking at how he arguably produced better vs tougher defenses. I agree with your point that I shouldn't ascribe too much to the triangle. But that's not the Crux of my argument. My argument is based on the fact that Jordan had a host of contextual advantages (competition, defensive quality faced, era-relative roster strength, and era-relative coaching strength) and still doesn't create any meaningful separation from LeBron in the aspect of his game that is his strongest claim to claim.


And again, "we simply know thanks to hindsight" means you are comparing one era to another, which is not era-relativity. You are using a later era as a baseline with which to measure previous eras, and that is not era-relativity. It's just not.

I'm going to take trex's advice here and just say "agree to disagree".
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Re: Prime LeBron James is the most resilient scorer in NBA History 

Post#152 » by OhayoKD » Thu Apr 18, 2024 12:49 am

Sigh

lessthanjake wrote:
Heej wrote:
First of all, it is objectively untrue that Jordan’s playoff TS% increased with the triangle relative to his pre-triangle days. He had a 58.9% playoff TS% before the triangle, and, even leaving aside the second-three-peat years, he had a 57.7% playoff TS% with the triangle. So your statement here is simply false. Second of all, this thread is specifically about resilience against high rDRTG defenses, and, as I’ve already told you, his rTS% against those teams was higher pre-triangle than it was with the triangle (even without including the second-three-peat years for the triangle).

90 and 91 Jordan see significant efficiency jumps if you bother to account for opposing defensive rating. Oddly correlative with the times Jordan gets doubled dropping which, oddly enough, was what Jackson told MJ would happen if he scaled down and let others get going (with the others conveniently not taking enough shots to threaten Jordan's scoring title hopes)


Almost like one of the central objectives of the triangle...was to make it harder to double Micheal Jordan by having Pippen draw extra defensive attention as the primary ball-handler while Jordan made cuts on the weak side.

Moving on to more reasonable discourse...

 
OldSchoolNoBull wrote:
Heej wrote:
And my argument regarding the middling teams is that the Bulls relative advantages (roster and coaching) given that the Bulls were essentially a proto-modern team (particularly in the 2nd threepeat running 3 ballhandler lineups with Kukoc-Rodman closing at the 4-5) are on par with the relative roster and coaching advantages LeBron had. Because when you're playing in an era with watered down roster talent and coaching acumen, playing in a proto-modern offense alone places you at such an advantage that it makes no sense to handwave away one guys' opponents as middling when the other teams looked just as mid relative to the Bulls' construction in totality.


The thing is, even if what you say is accurate, you are still comparing one era to another here. That is not era-relativity. In order to know the things you're talking about - what schemes were more modern vs what weren't, etc - you'd have to know what happened in the league after player x(in this case Jordan) played.


As long as the knowledge is applied to a comparison between a team and its contemporaries, the timing of when that knowledge is acquired really doesn't matter to era-relativity or not era-relativity. Era-relativity is how something compares relative to other things in that era. Heej's claim, that Jordan's resiliency was partially a situational product of a "ahead of it's time" schematic edge implemented by his coach, fits. That is another matter from it being solid or shaky.

On that note, I'll reiterate that even with strict era-relativity, expansion inflates the SRS of teams relative to their strength, relative to the talent pool, regardless of how good that pool is. If you add a bunch of bottom-feeders(with minimal redistribution of what is already there), a team of equal quality will likely see their point differentials improve without actually altering the quality of the talent pool.

This effect is generally lowered with models that weigh the playoffs more as the aforementioned bottom-feeders play a lesser role. Incidentally that OKC team Heej is commenting on score higher than any team Jordan has beat by playoff rating.

Just to zoom into this passage - the triangle obviously was very important, and you can see that reflected in the team offenses skyrocketing once Phil took over and implemented it, but its success is not independent of Jordan. I would point out that Jordan was producing elite scoring numbers before playing in the triangle, and that that same triangle produced worse offenses in 94 and 95 when he wasn't playing. Here are the rORtgs:
[/quote]

Two things here.

1. Yes, the offense gets alot worse without Jordan. He is a great player. But even if we took the best offense you list(7.6?) and the 94 Bulls(worst rating with the triangle), that is a smaller delta than the best splits we see from Lebron or Magic(with the gap expanding relative to the former if we go by overall numbers)

2. Health. Pippen and Grant barely missed games with Jordan in the other years. Both missed 10 games in 94. With Pippen, the Bulls were a +2 offense, better than any pre-triangle MJ offense(55-win pace by srs, and 58-win pace by record overall). In 95 Grant was not there.

Jordan was great and essential for the triangle to produce all-time offense, but the triangle and phil jackson's ability to bolster teams were, imo, something that would have remained with or without Jordan, and in the context of this comparison, I don't know this really shows that much.

PS: The Bulls without Jordan and Pippen were -1 SRS and .500 by record over a 10 game sample in 1994: Jackson's impact on defensive efficacy may be undervalued,
its my last message in this thread, but I just admit, that all the people, casual and analytical minds, more or less have consencus who has the weight of a rubberized duck. And its not JaivLLLL
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Re: Prime LeBron James is the most resilient scorer in NBA History 

Post#153 » by lessthanjake » Thu Apr 18, 2024 12:56 am

OhayoKD wrote:
lessthanjake wrote:
OhayoKD wrote:Certain people indeed:



And of course, in the same comment I'm replying to...


There’s literally nothing in what you quoted that involves me artificially narrowing down LeBron’s prime for rhetorical purposes.


You choosing a definition of "prime" does not change the substance of what is happening. You are shortening the sample for Lebron and finding angles where Lebron is disadvantaged or arguing angles he's advantaged are irrelevant. It is fundamentally the same approach you just called bizarre, except applied more arbitrarily, with less consistency: With quote 3 you went a step further, shortening not only Lebron's career, but Steph's for the specific years where a stat that massively favors Lebron over nearly any time-frame tuns into an argument for Steph's prime over Lebron's


LOL, yes, making various rhetorical points that require incredulously arguing that LeBron’s prime definitely did not start in a year he placed #2 in MVP voting (and that it’s in bad faith to suggest it did or even to simply show data from that time period because the thread title says the word “prime”) and also that LeBron’s prime “barely” extended past 2012-2013 is *totally* similar to making an argument that assumes Steph Curry’s prime started…the first year he ever was an all star or got any MVP votes and then to compare LeBron and Steph in the *same seasons* as each other (I very explicitly did *not* suggest LeBron’s prime was limited to only the years of Steph’s prime, and you know that). Come on. These are just bizarre analogies, that you’re seemingly resorting to because the only way you can think of to react to an accurate high-level appraisal/critique of your arguments is to try to lash out and come up with some cluttered way to throw that critique back at the other person.

Same energy as having era-relativity matter and matter more and more...as it distances itself from the period you started watching basketball...


LOL, this is clearly silly. Era differences in sports or other competitions inherently matter more and more as you go further back in time, since the whole issue is that people are constantly improving. So the fact that era differences matter to me more and more as you go back further in time is just a completely unremarkable fact and is surely generally true of essentially every single person here, except for ones who analyze either 100% or 0% era-relative. And yet you somehow have twisted yourself in a knot to insinuate that this completely unremarkable fact is suggestive of some kind of bad faith or bias. It’s just obviously nonsensical. You’re just making jabs for the sake of it at this point, no matter how silly they are.
OhayoKD wrote:Lebron contributes more to all the phases of play than Messi does. And he is of course a defensive anchor unlike messi.
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Re: Prime LeBron James is the most resilient scorer in NBA History 

Post#154 » by lessthanjake » Thu Apr 18, 2024 1:12 am

OhayoKD wrote:Sigh

lessthanjake wrote:
Heej wrote:
First of all, it is objectively untrue that Jordan’s playoff TS% increased with the triangle relative to his pre-triangle days. He had a 58.9% playoff TS% before the triangle, and, even leaving aside the second-three-peat years, he had a 57.7% playoff TS% with the triangle. So your statement here is simply false. Second of all, this thread is specifically about resilience against high rDRTG defenses, and, as I’ve already told you, his rTS% against those teams was higher pre-triangle than it was with the triangle (even without including the second-three-peat years for the triangle).

90 and 91 Jordan see significant efficiency jumps if you bother to account for opposing defensive rating. Oddly correlative with the times Jordan gets doubled dropping which, oddly enough, was what Jackson told MJ would happen if he scaled down and let others get going (with the others conveniently not taking enough shots to threaten Jordan's scoring title hopes)


Almost like one of the central objectives of the triangle...was to make it harder to double Micheal Jordan by having Pippen draw extra defensive attention as the primary ball-handler while Jordan made cuts on the weak side.


This thread is about playoff scoring “resilience.” It defines “resilience” to be based on how much and how efficiently a player scored against teams above a certain rDRTG cutoff. And as I pointed out, against those teams, Jordan’s rTS% was higher in the pre-triangle years than it was with the triangle, and that holds true even if we exclude the second-three-peat years. He also scored more points per game against those teams in the pre-triangle years than with the triangle, and again that holds true even if we exclude the second-three-peat years. This clearly undermines the argument that the triangle is the major driver of Jordan’s superior playoff scoring “resilience.” The brief discussion about overall playoff TS% only occurred because Heej said something about that that was factually incorrect. I really don’t see why you’re trying to carve out particular years and parse things that are not pertinent to this thread. Heej’s argument on this issue in this thread isn’t consistent with the data. That’s just the reality. I suppose you can still believe it if you want to, though.
OhayoKD wrote:Lebron contributes more to all the phases of play than Messi does. And he is of course a defensive anchor unlike messi.
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Re: Prime LeBron James is the most resilient scorer in NBA History 

Post#155 » by AEnigma » Thu Apr 18, 2024 1:48 am

So to be clear, you think Jordan was more resilient, or otherwise showed better scoring resilience, prior to 1990? That is what you sincerely believe?

Truly bold new terrain with every page of this thread.
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Re: Prime LeBron James is the most resilient scorer in NBA History 

Post#156 » by lessthanjake » Thu Apr 18, 2024 2:58 am

AEnigma wrote:So to be clear, you think Jordan was more resilient, or otherwise showed better scoring resilience, prior to 1990? That is what you sincerely believe?

Truly bold new terrain with every page of this thread.


The data set forth in this thread suggests that he showed marginally better scoring resilience against great defenses prior to 1990. But, particularly given that the sample sizes once we cut things up like that are relatively small, the gap isn’t large enough that I’d personally draw much of any meaningful affirmative conclusion about Jordan actually being a more or less resilient playoff scorer in one of those timeframes. Which is why in my initial long write up of my conclusions, I did not distinguish between those two timeframes and simply talked about the time period before his first retirement as one timeframe. I think the gap that we can actually draw an affirmative conclusion about is his drop in playoff “resilience” in the second-three-peat years, and that is something that I wrote about a good deal in my long write up. I do think Jordan was a more resilient playoff scorer before his first retirement, and that is the primary dividing line I see for him. The only reason we’re comparing Jordan’s resilience pre- and post-1990 is that Heej theorized that Jordan’s playoff scoring resilience was a product of some advantage derived from the triangle. The fact that a comparison of the pre-triangle and with-triangle data points isn’t at all consistent with that conclusion doesn’t mean that I am making an affirmative argument comparing Jordan in those two timeframes. I don’t think this should be difficult to follow, to be honest, especially given that I wrote up a very long explanation of my thoughts on both these players’ “resilience” chronologically throughout their careers.
OhayoKD wrote:Lebron contributes more to all the phases of play than Messi does. And he is of course a defensive anchor unlike messi.
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Re: Prime LeBron James is the most resilient scorer in NBA History 

Post#157 » by Colbinii » Thu Apr 18, 2024 3:16 am

I feel like I am reading the most vague, watered down discussions I have ever read on here about Jordan vs LeBron.

It's like you guys could be writing 3 sentences and instead right 12 without actually stating anything of substance.

A word sandwich, if you will, of the Subway variety. I recommend people work on their Accuracy of language rather than delivering a up a cold-cut combo.
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Re: Prime LeBron James is the most resilient scorer in NBA History 

Post#158 » by Djoker » Thu Apr 18, 2024 4:28 am

Heej wrote:
Djoker wrote:
OldSchoolNoBull wrote:
I'm just saying, based on rel ORtg, the Bulls with the triangle and no MJ(94 and 95) look about on par with the Bulls with MJ and no triangle(84-89). Both were needed to get to the next level. I don't for a minute deny the triangle's importance in the Bulls' success, I'm just saying don't give it outsized importance relative to MJ being MJ.


You made some really good posts in this thread but I just want to add that pre-triangle Bulls teams clearly had much worse supporting casts around Jordan than the triangle teams thanks primarily to the immense growth of Scottie Pippen from 1988/1989 to 1991 and beyond. I don't think it's at all inconceivable, heck it's very likely, that the Bulls in the 90's would have been a great offensive team even without Phil and the triangle. It's not the triangle or MJ that made the Bulls take the next step but the growth of his teammates, mainly Pippen. Even as late as 1998 we have half season samples showing that as well. In 44 games with Pippen, the Bulls had a +5.5 rORtg and in 38 games without Pippen -0.4 rORtg. Now they did get 2.4 points better in DRtg when Pippen DNP indicating a tactical shift so Pippen wasn't worth anywhere close to 6 points on offense but he was probably worth around 2-3 points on offense which is still a lot. It's clear that the Bulls were significantly worse on offense without Pippen because defenses loaded up on MJ, there was no one else who could take the ball in his hands and drive the offense.

Seems people got lost in the weeds discussing the triangle when in reality the argument about Jordan's era-relative advantage hinges just as much on the superior era-relative teammates he had compared to LeBron in totality. The coaching advantage simply made up a potent 1-2 Punch that Jordan hagiographers try to gaslight people into thinking was all Jordan.

The fact that LeBron holds up better with less era-relative advantages against the best aspect of Jordan's game really says a lot about a comparison of the two in a vacuum.


In an era-relative sense, Lebron's casts were better than Jordan's on the offensive end of the floor. Wade/Bosh/shooters, Kyrie/Love/shooters, and AD/shooters is much better than anything Jordan played with.

And if by holds up you mean about 4 points per 75 fewer on same efficiency than sure. I would argue that being that far behind in volume isn't holding up at all though.
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Re: Prime LeBron James is the most resilient scorer in NBA History 

Post#159 » by OldSchoolNoBull » Thu Apr 18, 2024 4:28 am

OhayoKD wrote:As long as the knowledge is applied to a comparison between a team and its contemporaries, the timing of when that knowledge is acquired really doesn't matter to era-relativity or not era-relativity. Era-relativity is how something compares relative to other things in that era. Heej's claim, that Jordan's resiliency was partially a situational product of a "ahead of it's time" schematic edge implemented by his coach, fits. That is another matter from it being solid or shaky.


Man, he said things like "...was playing against caveman defenses in a decidedly non-caveman offense, while LeBron faced modern defenses (multiple elite ones at that) playing in a modern offense". That's essentially dinging MJ for playing against "caveman defenses" while LeBron played "modern defenses". That seems to me like the opposite of era-relativity. It's still using the modern game as barometer for evaluation.

On that note, I'll reiterate that even with strict era-relativity, expansion inflates the SRS of teams relative to their strength, relative to the talent pool, regardless of how good that pool is. If you add a bunch of bottom-feeders(with minimal redistribution of what is already there), a team of equal quality will likely see their point differentials improve without actually altering the quality of the talent pool.

This effect is generally lowered with models that weigh the playoffs more as the aforementioned bottom-feeders play a lesser role. Incidentally that OKC team Heej is commenting on score higher than any team Jordan has beat by playoff rating.


I know he was talking about the quality of opposing teams, but I really wasn't making any point about that.

1. Yes, the offense gets alot worse without Jordan. He is a great player. But even if we took the best offense you list(7.6?) and the 94 Bulls(worst rating with the triangle), that is a smaller delta than the best splits we see from Lebron or Magic(with the gap expanding relative to the former if we go by overall numbers)


Fair enough about LeBron(I assume you're referring to when he arrived and departed Cleveland both times, as that's where the biggest jumps are), but I don't see a bigger delta for Magic. The Lakers went up +1.9 on Magic's arrival in 79-80, and down -4.7 upon his retirement in 1991; the Bulls went down -5.1 in 94 and up +6.4 in 96.

2. Health. Pippen and Grant barely missed games with Jordan in the other years. Both missed 10 games in 94. With Pippen, the Bulls were a +2 offense, better than any pre-triangle MJ offense(55-win pace by srs, and 58-win pace by record overall). In 95 Grant was not there.


Sure, but you can also say that Kevin Love only played 21 games in 2018-19 after LeBron left; that the 2010-11 Cavs roster was significantly changed(and they got a new coach) from the 2009-10 roster; that when LeBron returned to Cleveland in 2014, Love also arrived, etc.

But my point was more simply that the team need Jordan just as much, if not more, than the triangle. Which brings me to:

Jordan was great and essential for the triangle to produce all-time offense, but the triangle and phil jackson's ability to bolster teams were, imo, something that would have remained with or without Jordan, and in the context of this comparison, I don't know this really shows that much.


I'm not trying to take away from the triangle, and its success later in LA with Shaq and Kobe would prove it's not singularly dependent on one player, but like any other offensive system, it is dependent on having elite offensive players.

...and actually, upon looking, four of the six Bulls championship teams posted higher rel ORtgs than any team Phil coached in LA.
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Re: Prime LeBron James is the most resilient scorer in NBA History 

Post#160 » by rk2023 » Thu Apr 18, 2024 5:05 am

Colbinii wrote:I feel like I am reading the most vague, watered down discussions I have ever read on here about Jordan vs LeBron.

It's like you guys could be writing 3 sentences and instead right 12 without actually stating anything of substance.

A word sandwich, if you will, of the Subway variety. I recommend people work on their Accuracy of language rather than delivering a up a cold-cut combo.


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