Rank these players offensively (peak): Magic, Jordan, LeBron, Curry, Jokic

[lessthanjake]

.

Great post!

This goes to something that is a bit of a pet issue of mine—which is that I really do think there are teams that are clear playoff paper tigers, and that mechanically looking at relative playoff numbers against those sorts of teams can wrongly skew perceptions. I understand a compulsion to downplay this, since it’s a super subjective thing to evaluate and is not something that can really be meaningfully quantified. But I think the reality is that there are some teams (and players) that have a stature in the NBA that makes teams really get up for them in the regular season, and there are others that kind of just don’t. And if you’re a team in the latter bucket, the playoffs ends up being a much bigger difficulty spike than it is for teams that typically get more motivated opponents in the regular season. The upshot of this is that I don’t put a whole lot of credence in things like rORTG and rTS% in the playoffs against teams that didn’t have very high stature in the league—I think that that in large part amounts to farming paper tigers whose regular-season numbers are not an accurate representation of their playoff quality. Of course, trying to mechanically account for this just becomes an unhelpful line-drawing game, where people will try to include or exclude data points based on whether they like or dislike those data points. What I will say, though, is that my general feeling is that LeBron played a lot of weak playoff opponents that were not teams high in stature in the NBA, and I personally don’t put a lot of value in what happened in those series (and by the way, the same critique is true for players beyond LeBron—for instance, I think we could generally say this about the vast majority of Magic Johnson’s Western Conference playoff opponents). I put a lot more value on what happened against genuinely top-tier teams, and I think your post highlights how that is not an area where LeBron’s teams necessarily did super great in relative terms compared to other all-time great offensive players (though they still did do quite well, of course!).

[tsherkin]

Lebron - Team rORtg in the NBA Finals

2007: -2.7
2011: +2.9
2012: +11.9
2013: +6.9
2014: +2.4
2015: -1.8
2016: +5.3
2017: +10.6
2018: +0.9
2020: +8.6

Average: +4.5

Jordan - Team rORtg in the NBA Finals

1991: +10.7
1991: +6.6
1993: +6.3
1996: +9.2
1997: +0.6
1998: +0.1

Average: +5.6

Magic - Team rORtg in the NBA Finals

1980: +5.9
1982: +4.6
1983: -1.2
1984: +7.6
1985: +6.0
1987: +11.6
1988: +3.6
1989: +6.4
1991: -0.7

Average: +4.9

Curry - Team rORtg in the Finals

2015: +1.0
2016: +4.0
2017: +11.0
2018: +12.7
2019: +3.0
2022: +3.9

Average: +5.9

So Lebron's teams have worst offenses in the NBA Finals.

And going beyond the numbers, I'd argue that rORtg actually flatters Lebron's teams because they completely collapsed defensively in the 2014, 2017 and 2018 Finals and even in the 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2020 Finals, their defense underperformed. They basically played offensively slanted lineups/tactics and emphasized offense at the expense of defense. This isn't a thread on defense but Lebron's teams also have the worst defenses in the Finals on this list and it's not even close.

And if we broaden the scope to include other strong opponents that Lebron faced in his own conference (ex. 2006 Pistons, 2008 Celtics, 2009 Magic, 2010 Celtics, 2021 Suns, 2023 Nuggets), it doesn't get much better with only the Orlando series in 2009 being good offensively. Basically Lebron's impressive team rORtg numbers in the postseason are inflated by romps against weak opposition but don't hold up to scrutiny.

Obviously some of these series including the Finals are outside of his peak years but that's true for other players as well. It just goes to the pattern of Lebron's teams underperforming against elite opposition.

Good data, thanks for that. Have you looked at how these map to individual performance, team health and such, or are we just having a look at the raw results?

[jalengreen]

This is genuinely difficult and I basically change my mind every time I think about it.

I think if I had to rank them right now, it’d go like this:

1. Jokic
2. Jordan
3. Magic
4. Curry
5. LeBron

To me, the eye test on Jokic is the best I’ve ever seen. And as a factual matter we’ve never seen an NBA offense run as efficiently with their star on the floor as the 2022-2023 Nuggets did with Jokic on the floor (though obviously era differences are a massive part of that). He’s early enough in his career that he’s not proven himself offensively for as long of a timeframe as the others, so putting him much lower could easily be justified on that basis. But to me he just looks like the best.

The Jordan/Magic/Curry bunch after that is a hard one for me to rank. Their brands of offense are very unique from each other so it’s hard to compare. I put Jordan at the top of this group because I think his offensive game probably had the most playoff resilience of the three. And I put Magic above Curry for similar reasons, I guess, but I waffle on this and don’t actually feel strongly about it at all.

LeBron goes at the bottom for me. I don’t think he scaled up well with other high-level offensive talent, which limited the ceiling of his offenses below that of these other players, IMO. I think one can try to refute that by looking at some small-sample-size playoff offense data, but the flip side is that you can also find some real playoff stinkers from LeBron, so I think that’s not exactly convincing overall (though I do really like 2016-2018 LeBron offensively). More generally, as Djoker said, LeBron’s teams just felt more fragile at times. I’ve watched LeBron for his entire career, and I rooted for him much more often than I’ve rooted against him (I’ve rooted for LeBron in every single playoff series he’s ever been in, except when he’s faced Steph or Jokic). And his offense just didn’t tend to give me the type of full confidence rooting for his teams that these other guys gave me (except maybe Curry—who also has felt a little bit flimsy to me at times, with supernova periods largely papering over it). That’s inherently a subjective feeling, but this is a subjective exercise.

One thing I’d note is that if this thread included Steve Nash, he’d go right to the top of the list for me, either ahead or alongside Jokic. Nash and Jokic are the two offensive players I’ve had the most confidence in.

Regarding Lebron's teams' fragility offensively, here is some evidence.

Although I'm putting myself in danger of starting yet another nuclear war, I posted before that Lebron's minor edge in postseason offenses is heavily boosted by the weak opposition. Against good teams in the Finals, his team offenses have often faltered.

Lebron - Team rORtg in the NBA Finals

2007: -2.7
2011: +2.9
2012: +11.9
2013: +6.9
2014: +2.4
2015: -1.8
2016: +5.3
2017: +10.6
2018: +0.9
2020: +8.6

Average: +4.5

Jordan - Team rORtg in the NBA Finals

1991: +10.7
1991: +6.6
1993: +6.3
1996: +9.2
1997: +0.6
1998: +0.1

Average: +5.6

Magic - Team rORtg in the NBA Finals

1980: +5.9
1982: +4.6
1983: -1.2
1984: +7.6
1985: +6.0
1987: +11.6
1988: +3.6
1989: +6.4
1991: -0.7

Average: +4.9

Curry - Team rORtg in the Finals

2015: +1.0
2016: +4.0
2017: +11.0
2018: +12.7
2019: +3.0
2022: +3.9

Average: +5.9

So Lebron's teams have worst offenses in the NBA Finals.

And going beyond the numbers, I'd argue that rORtg actually flatters Lebron's teams because they completely collapsed defensively in the 2014, 2017 and 2018 Finals and even in the 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2020 Finals, their defense underperformed. They basically played offensively slanted lineups/tactics and emphasized offense at the expense of defense. This isn't a thread on defense but Lebron's teams also have the worst defenses in the Finals on this list and it's not even close.

And if we broaden the scope to include other strong opponents that Lebron faced in his own conference (ex. 2006 Pistons, 2008 Celtics, 2009 Magic, 2010 Celtics, 2021 Suns, 2023 Nuggets), it doesn't get much better with only the Orlando series in 2009 being good offensively. Basically Lebron's impressive team rORtg numbers in the postseason are inflated by romps against weak opposition but don't hold up to scrutiny.

Obviously some of these series including the Finals are outside of his peak years but that's true for other players as well. It just goes to the pattern of Lebron's teams underperforming against elite opposition.

Considering the context of 2007, 2015, and 2018, I'm not sure I share the same interpretation of these numbers WRT LeBron as you do.

[Djoker]

.

Great post!

This goes to something that is a bit of a pet issue of mine—which is that I really do think there are teams that are clear playoff paper tigers, and that mechanically looking at relative playoff numbers against those sorts of teams can wrongly skew perceptions. I understand a compulsion to downplay this, since it’s a super subjective thing to evaluate and is not something that can really be meaningfully quantified. But I think the reality is that there are some teams (and players) that have a stature in the NBA that makes teams really get up for them in the regular season, and there are others that kind of just don’t. And if you’re a team in the latter bucket, the playoffs ends up being a much bigger difficulty spike than it is for teams that typically get more motivated opponents in the regular season. The upshot of this is that I don’t put a whole lot of credence in things like rORTG and rTS% in the playoffs against teams that didn’t have very high stature in the league—I think that that in large part amounts to farming paper tigers whose regular-season numbers are not an accurate representation of their playoff quality. Of course, trying to mechanically account for this just becomes an unhelpful line-drawing game, where people will try to include or exclude data points based on whether they like or dislike those data points. What I will say, though, is that my general feeling is that LeBron played a lot of weak playoff opponents that were not teams high in stature in the NBA, and I personally don’t put a lot of value in what happened in those series (and by the way, the same critique is true for players beyond LeBron—for instance, I think we could generally say this about the vast majority of Magic Johnson’s Western Conference playoff opponents). I put a lot more value on what happened against genuinely top-tier teams, and I think your post highlights how that is not an area where LeBron’s teams necessarily did super great in relative terms compared to other all-time great offensive players (though they still did do quite well, of course!).

Glad you wrote this!

Magic is indeed another player on this list who faced a lot of paper tigers in his own conference. 80's West was really bad. And his teams' rORtg also dropped a lot in the Finals compared to the rest of the playoffs even if they held up better.

That's why when I analyze playoff team offenses, Jordan/Curry for me are in front with Magic/Lebron behind them.

[Djoker]

This is genuinely difficult and I basically change my mind every time I think about it.

I think if I had to rank them right now, it’d go like this:

1. Jokic
2. Jordan
3. Magic
4. Curry
5. LeBron

To me, the eye test on Jokic is the best I’ve ever seen. And as a factual matter we’ve never seen an NBA offense run as efficiently with their star on the floor as the 2022-2023 Nuggets did with Jokic on the floor (though obviously era differences are a massive part of that). He’s early enough in his career that he’s not proven himself offensively for as long of a timeframe as the others, so putting him much lower could easily be justified on that basis. But to me he just looks like the best.

The Jordan/Magic/Curry bunch after that is a hard one for me to rank. Their brands of offense are very unique from each other so it’s hard to compare. I put Jordan at the top of this group because I think his offensive game probably had the most playoff resilience of the three. And I put Magic above Curry for similar reasons, I guess, but I waffle on this and don’t actually feel strongly about it at all.

LeBron goes at the bottom for me. I don’t think he scaled up well with other high-level offensive talent, which limited the ceiling of his offenses below that of these other players, IMO. I think one can try to refute that by looking at some small-sample-size playoff offense data, but the flip side is that you can also find some real playoff stinkers from LeBron, so I think that’s not exactly convincing overall (though I do really like 2016-2018 LeBron offensively). More generally, as Djoker said, LeBron’s teams just felt more fragile at times. I’ve watched LeBron for his entire career, and I rooted for him much more often than I’ve rooted against him (I’ve rooted for LeBron in every single playoff series he’s ever been in, except when he’s faced Steph or Jokic). And his offense just didn’t tend to give me the type of full confidence rooting for his teams that these other guys gave me (except maybe Curry—who also has felt a little bit flimsy to me at times, with supernova periods largely papering over it). That’s inherently a subjective feeling, but this is a subjective exercise.

One thing I’d note is that if this thread included Steve Nash, he’d go right to the top of the list for me, either ahead or alongside Jokic. Nash and Jokic are the two offensive players I’ve had the most confidence in.

Regarding Lebron's teams' fragility offensively, here is some evidence.

Although I'm putting myself in danger of starting yet another nuclear war, I posted before that Lebron's minor edge in postseason offenses is heavily boosted by the weak opposition. Against good teams in the Finals, his team offenses have often faltered.

Lebron - Team rORtg in the NBA Finals

2007: -2.7
2011: +2.9
2012: +11.9
2013: +6.9
2014: +2.4
2015: -1.8
2016: +5.3
2017: +10.6
2018: +0.9
2020: +8.6

Average: +4.5

Jordan - Team rORtg in the NBA Finals

1991: +10.7
1991: +6.6
1993: +6.3
1996: +9.2
1997: +0.6
1998: +0.1

Average: +5.6

Magic - Team rORtg in the NBA Finals

1980: +5.9
1982: +4.6
1983: -1.2
1984: +7.6
1985: +6.0
1987: +11.6
1988: +3.6
1989: +6.4
1991: -0.7

Average: +4.9

Curry - Team rORtg in the Finals

2015: +1.0
2016: +4.0
2017: +11.0
2018: +12.7
2019: +3.0
2022: +3.9

Average: +5.9

So Lebron's teams have worst offenses in the NBA Finals.

And going beyond the numbers, I'd argue that rORtg actually flatters Lebron's teams because they completely collapsed defensively in the 2014, 2017 and 2018 Finals and even in the 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2020 Finals, their defense underperformed. They basically played offensively slanted lineups/tactics and emphasized offense at the expense of defense. This isn't a thread on defense but Lebron's teams also have the worst defenses in the Finals on this list and it's not even close.

And if we broaden the scope to include other strong opponents that Lebron faced in his own conference (ex. 2006 Pistons, 2008 Celtics, 2009 Magic, 2010 Celtics, 2021 Suns, 2023 Nuggets), it doesn't get much better with only the Orlando series in 2009 being good offensively. Basically Lebron's impressive team rORtg numbers in the postseason are inflated by romps against weak opposition but don't hold up to scrutiny.

Obviously some of these series including the Finals are outside of his peak years but that's true for other players as well. It just goes to the pattern of Lebron's teams underperforming against elite opposition.

Considering the context of 2007, 2015, and 2018, I'm not sure I share the same interpretation of these numbers WRT LeBron as you do.

I understand the lack of talent in 2007 and major injuries in 2015 but -2.8 and -1.7 are really really bad. That's offensive level clearly below an average team in the league.

[Colbinii]

I don't really get pointing to 2015 and 2007 dragging LeBrons finals offenses down and using that as an argument against LeBron.

Outside of those 2 series, LeBron is at +6.1 rORTG in the finals.

I wonder what LeBron's Ortg is in the Finals in 2015 with just Kyrie, or even Kyrie + Love.

2007 isn't even a version of LeBron I would consider prime or at the level of these players primes. I would look at 2008-2020 as a good view of LeBrons prime and focus on those numbers.

[AEnigma]

I wonder if it might have something to do with those 2007/15 Finals casts being historically awful, worst in the league level offences without Lebron.

I am constantly amazed at the type of things you both seem to expect should be taken seriously. Put Curry ahead because he gets a massive oRating spike adding Durant. Put Jordan ahead because of series like 1991 against a corpse of a team and 1996 where the team posts massive results even as Jordan has one of his worse series ever, while expecting us to ignore the way the Bulls posted a +8.5 oRtg against a historic defence without Jordan. And then condemn Lebron for struggling with Boobie Gibson and J.R. Smith as second options against elite defences. No real analysis, no sincerity, just data to push a pre-constructed narrative.

[Colbinii]

Regarding Lebron's teams' fragility offensively, here is some evidence.

Although I'm putting myself in danger of starting yet another nuclear war, I posted before that Lebron's minor edge in postseason offenses is heavily boosted by the weak opposition. Against good teams in the Finals, his team offenses have often faltered.

Lebron - Team rORtg in the NBA Finals

2007: -2.7
2011: +2.9
2012: +11.9
2013: +6.9
2014: +2.4
2015: -1.8
2016: +5.3
2017: +10.6
2018: +0.9
2020: +8.6

Average: +4.5

Jordan - Team rORtg in the NBA Finals

1991: +10.7
1991: +6.6
1993: +6.3
1996: +9.2
1997: +0.6
1998: +0.1

Average: +5.6

Magic - Team rORtg in the NBA Finals

1980: +5.9
1982: +4.6
1983: -1.2
1984: +7.6
1985: +6.0
1987: +11.6
1988: +3.6
1989: +6.4
1991: -0.7

Average: +4.9

Curry - Team rORtg in the Finals

2015: +1.0
2016: +4.0
2017: +11.0
2018: +12.7
2019: +3.0
2022: +3.9

Average: +5.9

So Lebron's teams have worst offenses in the NBA Finals.

And going beyond the numbers, I'd argue that rORtg actually flatters Lebron's teams because they completely collapsed defensively in the 2014, 2017 and 2018 Finals and even in the 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2020 Finals, their defense underperformed. They basically played offensively slanted lineups/tactics and emphasized offense at the expense of defense. This isn't a thread on defense but Lebron's teams also have the worst defenses in the Finals on this list and it's not even close.

And if we broaden the scope to include other strong opponents that Lebron faced in his own conference (ex. 2006 Pistons, 2008 Celtics, 2009 Magic, 2010 Celtics, 2021 Suns, 2023 Nuggets), it doesn't get much better with only the Orlando series in 2009 being good offensively. Basically Lebron's impressive team rORtg numbers in the postseason are inflated by romps against weak opposition but don't hold up to scrutiny.

Obviously some of these series including the Finals are outside of his peak years but that's true for other players as well. It just goes to the pattern of Lebron's teams underperforming against elite opposition.

Considering the context of 2007, 2015, and 2018, I'm not sure I share the same interpretation of these numbers WRT LeBron as you do.

I understand the lack of talent in 2007 and major injuries in 2015 but -2.8 and -1.7 are really really bad. That's offensive level clearly below an average team in the league.

It is a good thing we have context to understanding why those offenses were so bad and have a massive sample outside of those two series that puts LeBron at +6.1 in the NBA Finals.

[Djoker]

Considering the context of 2007, 2015, and 2018, I'm not sure I share the same interpretation of these numbers WRT LeBron as you do.

I understand the lack of talent in 2007 and major injuries in 2015 but -2.8 and -1.7 are really really bad. That's offensive level clearly below an average team in the league.

It is a good thing we have context to understanding why those offenses were so bad and have a massive sample outside of those two series that puts LeBron at +6.1 in the NBA Finals.

Right but we can also contextualize some of his good results. Like 2017.. The Cavs were an offensively slanted team that completely fell apart on defense. And their numbers are greatly inflated by Game 4 (142.6) after falling down 0-3 in the series. Without that game they are +3 or +4 rORtg.

Or 2020 where they faced a historically bad Heat team. Shall I remove this Finals?

It's a rabbit hole that I don't think anyone wants to go down.

[lessthanjake]

Considering the context of 2007, 2015, and 2018, I'm not sure I share the same interpretation of these numbers WRT LeBron as you do.

I understand the lack of talent in 2007 and major injuries in 2015 but -2.8 and -1.7 are really really bad. That's offensive level clearly below an average team in the league.

It is a good thing we have context to understanding why those offenses were so bad and have a massive sample outside of those two series that puts LeBron at +6.1 in the NBA Finals.

The thing is that LeBron was also individually not very good in those series offensively. He had negative rTS% in both series, by quite a lot (though in 2015 the high volume was at least a mitigating factor). It wasn’t an example of LeBron playing really well offensively but his supporting cast just being awful. He shot badly in both series. Yes, basketball is a dynamic game where having better teammates makes it easier to score efficiently, but LeBron’s weak shooting was clearly a significant part of the problem in those series offensively. We should not just hand wave away a guy posting 42.8% and 47.7% TS%’s in the Finals. LeBron is not a good shooter. It’s his biggest offensive weakness, and these are examples of series where it was a huge problem.

I think it’s fair to say that comparing team rORTG in the Finals glosses over teammate quality. The 2007 or 2015 Cavs were obviously not as good offensively as the 2017 Warriors. But these aren’t data points that can just be tossed away. They happened. LeBron did shoot awfully and it was a massive contributor to his teams’ bad offensive performances, even if there were other major factors going into it as well.

One thing that I also think is worth noting is that it’s really not clear to me that teammate quality overall skews in LeBron’s direction in these comparisons, particularly when talking about offense. For instance, outside of the Durant years (a significant caveat of course), Steph played with very defensive-slanted lineups. Draymond is an extremely limited offensive player, and the Warriors tended to play another non-shooter alongside him (Bogut, Looney, etc.). As the team got deeper into the playoffs, they tended to skew the lineups even more defensively, giving more and more minutes to defense-oriented guys like Iguodala. Those non-Durant teams were obviously still good teams, but they were intentionally skewing towards defensive lineups and letting Steph’s presence carry the offensive load. Similarly, the Bulls lineups were typically slanted defensively—Pippen, Grant, and Rodman were all better defensive players than they were offensive players, and the various role players generally were more defense-oriented too (though I’d say Kukoc and Kerr were exceptions to this). Meanwhile, LeBron’s teams were often much more offense-oriented—especially the Heat and second-stint Cavs teams, which were generally very offensively talented. LeBron had defense-slanted rosters in his first stint with the Cavs, and his teams tended to do genuinely pretty badly offensively in series against good teams (even in opponent-relative terms). Anyways, all this is to say that looking at raw rORTG doesn’t adjust for teammate quality and that may unduly punish LeBron for the weakness of his teams in years like 2007 and 2015, but the overall picture is one where most of these years in question were LeBron with offense-slanted rosters and some of these other guys had mostly defense-slanted rosters (though I wouldn’t say that’s the case for Magic), so it’s not all that clear that some sort of adjustment for teammates’ offensive quality would move things towards LeBron in the aggregate (even if it would somewhat mitigate the 2007 and 2015 data points specifically).

[web123888]

Would probably go something like

Jordan
Jokic
Magic
Curry
LeBron

[AEnigma]

Remember when the Warriors posted a +9.3 rOrtg against the Blazers with 73 minutes of Curry? Or a +4.5 rOrtg against the Rockets with 38 minutes of Curry? No, of course not, how could such defensively slanted rosters possibly hope to pull that off.

[eminence]

Remember when the Warriors posted a +9.3 rOrtg against the Blazers with 73 minutes of Curry? Or a +4.5 rOrtg against the Rockets with 38 minutes of Curry? No, of course not, how could such defensively slanted rosters possibly hope to pull that off.

Through James Harden all things are possible.

[capfan33]

I understand the lack of talent in 2007 and major injuries in 2015 but -2.8 and -1.7 are really really bad. That's offensive level clearly below an average team in the league.

It is a good thing we have context to understanding why those offenses were so bad and have a massive sample outside of those two series that puts LeBron at +6.1 in the NBA Finals.

The thing is that LeBron was also individually not very good in those series offensively. He had negative rTS% in both series, by quite a lot (though in 2015 the high volume was at least a mitigating factor). It wasn’t an example of LeBron playing really well offensively but his supporting cast just being awful. He shot badly in both series. Yes, basketball is a dynamic game where having better teammates makes it easier to score efficiently, but LeBron’s weak shooting was clearly a significant part of the problem in those series offensively. We should not just hand wave away a guy posting 42.8% and 47.7% TS%’s in the Finals. LeBron is not a good shooter. It’s his biggest offensive weakness, and these are examples of series where it was a huge problem.

I think it’s fair to say that comparing team rORTG in the Finals glosses over teammate quality. The 2007 or 2015 Cavs were obviously not as good offensively as the 2017 Warriors. But these aren’t data points that can just be tossed away. They happened. LeBron did shoot awfully and it was a massive contributor to his teams’ bad offensive performances, even if there were other major factors going into it as well.

One thing that I also think is worth noting is that it’s really not clear to me that teammate quality overall skews in LeBron’s direction in these comparisons, particularly when talking about offense. For instance, outside of the Durant years (a significant caveat of course), Steph played with very defensive-slanted lineups. Draymond is an extremely limited offensive player, and the Warriors tended to play another non-shooter alongside him (Bogut, Looney, etc.). As the team got deeper into the playoffs, they tended to skew the lineups even more defensively, giving more and more minutes to defense-oriented guys like Iguodala. Those non-Durant teams were obviously still good teams, but they were intentionally skewing towards defensive lineups and letting Steph’s presence carry the offensive load. Similarly, the Bulls lineups were typically slanted defensively—Pippen, Grant, and Rodman were all better defensive players than they were offensive players, and the various role players generally were more defense-oriented too (though I’d say Kukoc and Kerr were exceptions to this). Meanwhile, LeBron’s teams were often much more offense-oriented—especially the Heat and second-stint Cavs teams, which were generally very offensively talented. LeBron had defense-slanted rosters in his first stint with the Cavs, and his teams tended to do genuinely pretty badly offensively in series against good teams (even in opponent-relative terms). Anyways, all this is to say that looking at raw rORTG doesn’t adjust for teammate quality and that may unduly punish LeBron for the weakness of his teams in years like 2007 and 2015, but the overall picture is one where most of these years in question were LeBron with offense-slanted rosters and some of these other guys had mostly defense-slanted rosters (though I wouldn’t say that’s the case for Magic), so it’s not all that clear that some sort of adjustment for teammates’ offensive quality would move things towards LeBron in the aggregate (even if it would somewhat mitigate the 2007 and 2015 data points specifically).

Yes, Lebron played poorly in 2007, but he was 22 and no where close to as good as he would become, with 0 offensive support against a very good if not ATG team that was solely committed to stopping him. I don't think it should factor into any analysis of peak Lebron in a meaningful way.

And if you think the Bulls lineups with Pippen and Grant were defensively slanted, Jordan's supporting casts are even stronger then I originally thought they were.

And 2015/2016 Draymond was not an extremely limited player offensively at all. And even Iggy was perfectly passable albeit unspectacular as an offensive player.

[jalengreen]

Regarding Lebron's teams' fragility offensively, here is some evidence.

Although I'm putting myself in danger of starting yet another nuclear war, I posted before that Lebron's minor edge in postseason offenses is heavily boosted by the weak opposition. Against good teams in the Finals, his team offenses have often faltered.

Lebron - Team rORtg in the NBA Finals

2007: -2.7
2011: +2.9
2012: +11.9
2013: +6.9
2014: +2.4
2015: -1.8
2016: +5.3
2017: +10.6
2018: +0.9
2020: +8.6

Average: +4.5

[...]

Curry - Team rORtg in the Finals

2015: +1.0
2016: +4.0
2017: +11.0
2018: +12.7
2019: +3.0
2022: +3.9

Average: +5.9

So Lebron's teams have worst offenses in the NBA Finals.

And going beyond the numbers, I'd argue that rORtg actually flatters Lebron's teams because they completely collapsed defensively in the 2014, 2017 and 2018 Finals and even in the 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2020 Finals, their defense underperformed. They basically played offensively slanted lineups/tactics and emphasized offense at the expense of defense. This isn't a thread on defense but Lebron's teams also have the worst defenses in the Finals on this list and it's not even close.

And if we broaden the scope to include other strong opponents that Lebron faced in his own conference (ex. 2006 Pistons, 2008 Celtics, 2009 Magic, 2010 Celtics, 2021 Suns, 2023 Nuggets), it doesn't get much better with only the Orlando series in 2009 being good offensively. Basically Lebron's impressive team rORtg numbers in the postseason are inflated by romps against weak opposition but don't hold up to scrutiny.

Obviously some of these series including the Finals are outside of his peak years but that's true for other players as well. It just goes to the pattern of Lebron's teams underperforming against elite opposition.

Considering the context of 2007, 2015, and 2018, I'm not sure I share the same interpretation of these numbers WRT LeBron as you do.

I understand the lack of talent in 2007 and major injuries in 2015 but -2.8 and -1.7 are really really bad. That's offensive level clearly below an average team in the league.

This would be cool if you were comparing it to similar circumstances. Like other series in which a star was suffering from a lack of surrounding talent or major injuries, i.e. "LeBron's team put up a -2.8 rORTG with a lack of talent while Steph put up a X rORTG". That's clearly not what you're doing. None of the teams led by Steph that made it to the Finals had similarly lacking talent or debilitating injuries. Like, what do we think is the closest there? 2019 with KD injured? Now go ahead and compare that to the 2007 Cavaliers roster lol

What do we view as a less talented Steph team? Maybe the 2023 Warriors who lost in R2 to the Lakers, posting a -2.3 rORTG? Or their -3.6 rORTG in the series prior? How should such data points be accounted for?

You mention "Lebron's impressive team rORtg numbers in the postseason are inflated by romps against weak opposition", suggesting that a rORTG approach is susceptible to overvaluing "romps against weak opposition". At which point I would point out that the methodology you offer is weighting the 2018 Cavaliers equally as ... well, every other Finals team here. That +12.7 is pulling a lot of weight, and the 2018 Cavaliers were pretty damn mid. Not all Finals teams are created equally!

You also discuss the notion of LeBron's teams "underperforming", implying some pre-defined expectations they fell short of. It's important to be clear on what those expectations are. The 2007 and 2018 Cavaliers entered the Finals with odds of +360 and +688 respectively, corresponding to approximate win probabilities of 20% and 12%. Deciding how much those teams actually underperformed isn't really as simple as just looking at their rORTG.

Hope this shows that this type of analysis is kinda lazy and, to use your words, doesn't hold up to scrutiny.

[Colbinii]

It's a rabbit hole that I don't think anyone wants to go down.

Seems better than posting numbers from before LeBron's prime and when 2 all-star level offensive players were injured [Kyrie and Love].

But hey, I think you and me can both agree that without those two Finals, LeBron was at +6.1 and including just 2015 is still around +5.8.

We should also be doing the same for all players here.

Jokic played a historically weak team in every round in 2023 post-season.

Curry was playing with Kevin Durant, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green

The 1994 Bulls put up a +8.5 rOrtg against the Knicks without Michael Jordan

[OldSchoolNoBull]

Regarding Lebron's teams' fragility offensively, here is some evidence.

Although I'm putting myself in danger of starting yet another nuclear war, I posted before that Lebron's minor edge in postseason offenses is heavily boosted by the weak opposition. Against good teams in the Finals, his team offenses have often faltered.

Lebron - Team rORtg in the NBA Finals

2007: -2.7
2011: +2.9
2012: +11.9
2013: +6.9
2014: +2.4
2015: -1.8
2016: +5.3
2017: +10.6
2018: +0.9
2020: +8.6

Average: +4.5

Jordan - Team rORtg in the NBA Finals

1991: +10.7
1991: +6.6
1993: +6.3
1996: +9.2
1997: +0.6
1998: +0.1

Average: +5.6

Magic - Team rORtg in the NBA Finals

1980: +5.9
1982: +4.6
1983: -1.2
1984: +7.6
1985: +6.0
1987: +11.6
1988: +3.6
1989: +6.4
1991: -0.7

Average: +4.9

Curry - Team rORtg in the Finals

2015: +1.0
2016: +4.0
2017: +11.0
2018: +12.7
2019: +3.0
2022: +3.9

Average: +5.9

So Lebron's teams have worst offenses in the NBA Finals.

And going beyond the numbers, I'd argue that rORtg actually flatters Lebron's teams because they completely collapsed defensively in the 2014, 2017 and 2018 Finals and even in the 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2020 Finals, their defense underperformed. They basically played offensively slanted lineups/tactics and emphasized offense at the expense of defense. This isn't a thread on defense but Lebron's teams also have the worst defenses in the Finals on this list and it's not even close.

And if we broaden the scope to include other strong opponents that Lebron faced in his own conference (ex. 2006 Pistons, 2008 Celtics, 2009 Magic, 2010 Celtics, 2021 Suns, 2023 Nuggets), it doesn't get much better with only the Orlando series in 2009 being good offensively. Basically Lebron's impressive team rORtg numbers in the postseason are inflated by romps against weak opposition but don't hold up to scrutiny.

Obviously some of these series including the Finals are outside of his peak years but that's true for other players as well. It just goes to the pattern of Lebron's teams underperforming against elite opposition.

Can I ask where you're getting those numbers and/or how they're calculated? These relative offensive ratings are relative to what, exactly?

[OldSchoolNoBull]

I wonder if it might have something to do with those 2007/15 Finals casts being historically awful, worst in the league level offences without Lebron.

I am constantly amazed at the type of things you both seem to expect should be taken seriously. Put Curry ahead because he gets a massive oRating spike adding Durant. Put Jordan ahead because of series like 1991 against a corpse of a team and 1996 where the team posts massive results even as Jordan has one of his worse series ever, while expecting us to ignore the way the Bulls posted a +8.5 oRtg against a historic defence without Jordan. And then condemn Lebron for struggling with Boobie Gibson and J.R. Smith as second options against elite defences. No real analysis, no sincerity, just data to push a pre-constructed narrative.

Just a couple things with regards to those Bulls Finals...

It's true Worthy and Scott were hurt in the 91 Finals, and maybe that's all you meant by that(in which case, fine, no argument), but the 91 Lakers have been a favorite target of certain factions for a long time, so language like "corpse of a team" sets me off a bit. They are often portrayed as old and washed up and it's just not true. Magic still put up an MVP caliber season, was #2 in voting behind MJ, and the Lakers were the #3 team in the league by W/L, SRS, and Net Rtg. Magic was only 31, and he was the only one of their top 6 that year that was over 30. By comparison, when the Bulls and Jazz met in the Finals in 97 and 98, both teams were much older than the 91 Lakers. Magic had to retire after that, and Worthy and Scott declined, yes, but for that season, the Lakers were still a very good team when healthy.

As for 1996, MJ shot unusually poorly for half that series, but I wouldn't imply that the poor shooting means that he wasn't contributing positively to the team offense. He was still Michael Jordan, so they still had to guard him like he was Michael Jordan, which opens up opportunities for his teammates. He had three 5+ assist games that series, including 7 and 8 in two of his three worst shooting performances of the series, and he had 2+ offensive boards in 4 out of 6 games, so even when his shot wasn't falling, he was contributing to the offense in other ways.

But yes with small sample sizes like this you can poke holes from any angle. The 89 Lakers are +6.4 when Magic barely played that series, while the 91 Lakers are -0.7 when Magic played nearly every minute of that series. You could take an unfavorable view of Magic based on that if you wanted to.

Somebody earlier said that ranking these guys offensively is splitting hairs, and I tend to agree with that.

[Djoker]

Regarding Lebron's teams' fragility offensively, here is some evidence.

Although I'm putting myself in danger of starting yet another nuclear war, I posted before that Lebron's minor edge in postseason offenses is heavily boosted by the weak opposition. Against good teams in the Finals, his team offenses have often faltered.

Lebron - Team rORtg in the NBA Finals

2007: -2.7
2011: +2.9
2012: +11.9
2013: +6.9
2014: +2.4
2015: -1.8
2016: +5.3
2017: +10.6
2018: +0.9
2020: +8.6

Average: +4.5

Jordan - Team rORtg in the NBA Finals

1991: +10.7
1991: +6.6
1993: +6.3
1996: +9.2
1997: +0.6
1998: +0.1

Average: +5.6

Magic - Team rORtg in the NBA Finals

1980: +5.9
1982: +4.6
1983: -1.2
1984: +7.6
1985: +6.0
1987: +11.6
1988: +3.6
1989: +6.4
1991: -0.7

Average: +4.9

Curry - Team rORtg in the Finals

2015: +1.0
2016: +4.0
2017: +11.0
2018: +12.7
2019: +3.0
2022: +3.9

Average: +5.9

So Lebron's teams have worst offenses in the NBA Finals.

And going beyond the numbers, I'd argue that rORtg actually flatters Lebron's teams because they completely collapsed defensively in the 2014, 2017 and 2018 Finals and even in the 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2020 Finals, their defense underperformed. They basically played offensively slanted lineups/tactics and emphasized offense at the expense of defense. This isn't a thread on defense but Lebron's teams also have the worst defenses in the Finals on this list and it's not even close.

And if we broaden the scope to include other strong opponents that Lebron faced in his own conference (ex. 2006 Pistons, 2008 Celtics, 2009 Magic, 2010 Celtics, 2021 Suns, 2023 Nuggets), it doesn't get much better with only the Orlando series in 2009 being good offensively. Basically Lebron's impressive team rORtg numbers in the postseason are inflated by romps against weak opposition but don't hold up to scrutiny.

Obviously some of these series including the Finals are outside of his peak years but that's true for other players as well. It just goes to the pattern of Lebron's teams underperforming against elite opposition.

Can I ask where you're getting those numbers and/or how they're calculated? These relative offensive ratings are relative to what, exactly?

They are relative to opponent regular season DRtg. So for example the Cavs in the 2007 Finals had a 97.2 ORtg while the Warriors DRtg that season was 99.9 DRtg so that is -2.7 rORtg.

[Djoker]

Considering the context of 2007, 2015, and 2018, I'm not sure I share the same interpretation of these numbers WRT LeBron as you do.

I understand the lack of talent in 2007 and major injuries in 2015 but -2.8 and -1.7 are really really bad. That's offensive level clearly below an average team in the league.

This would be cool if you were comparing it to similar circumstances. Like other series in which a star was suffering from a lack of surrounding talent or major injuries, i.e. "LeBron's team put up a -2.8 rORTG with a lack of talent while Steph put up a X rORTG". That's clearly not what you're doing. None of the teams led by Steph that made it to the Finals had similarly lacking talent or debilitating injuries. Like, what do we think is the closest there? 2019 with KD injured? Now go ahead and compare that to the 2007 Cavaliers roster lol

What do we view as a less talented Steph team? Maybe the 2023 Warriors who lost in R2 to the Lakers, posting a -2.3 rORTG? Or their -3.6 rORTG in the series prior? How should such data points be accounted for?

You mention "Lebron's impressive team rORtg numbers in the postseason are inflated by romps against weak opposition", suggesting that a rORTG approach is susceptible to overvaluing "romps against weak opposition". At which point I would point out that the methodology you offer is weighting the 2018 Cavaliers equally as ... well, every other Finals team here. That +12.7 is pulling a lot of weight, and the 2018 Cavaliers were pretty damn mid. Not all Finals teams are created equally!

You also discuss the notion of LeBron's teams "underperforming", implying some pre-defined expectations they fell short of. It's important to be clear on what those expectations are. The 2007 and 2018 Cavaliers entered the Finals with odds of +360 and +688 respectively, corresponding to approximate win probabilities of 20% and 12%. Deciding how much those teams actually underperformed isn't really as simple as just looking at their rORTG.

Hope this shows that this type of analysis is kinda lazy and, to use your words, doesn't hold up to scrutiny.

The other side supporting Lebron has no problem using the postseason rORtg from specific years for their argument (basically 2012-2017 conveniently excluding 2015) but then I post the Finals numbers in their entirety without cherrypicking then I'm at fault. Obviously there is a lot of context to the data and it can be interpreted in a range of ways and the process of analysis is quite subjective.

The big picture is that Lebron's regular season offenses are the worst among Jordan/Curry/Magic. In the postseason the overall numbers look favorable to Lebron but against the best opposition, his numbers again look the worst. Of course people will come up with different interpretations and explanations for the data. That's why this thread is interesting. The data is not definitive nor did I ever claim it was but it is a piece of evidence.