Vote 1 - Dominique Wilkins
Vote 2 - James Worthy
Nomination 1 - Carmelo Anthony
Nomination 2 - Bob McAdooNiqueDominique had an impressive stretch from '85-'94:
28 PPG, 7 RPG, 2.9 APG, 1.4 SPG on 54.1% TS, 113 ORTG, +5.1 OBPM
He was absolutely devastating at the rim in his prime, and it would be awesome to have some shot charts on this guy. He has some playoff shortcomings, but I'd say he had "good" rosters around him at best, and typically lost to more talented teams (3 times losing to the eventual NBA champs).
I also really respect his ability to come back from a major injury and still produce at a high level. The amount of determination that takes is huge, especially since it was later in his career. After returning from the ruptured achilles in 92-93, he put up 29.9 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 3.2 APG, 1 SPG, .4 BPG on 57% TS (+3.4 rTS) for the 43 win hawks.
MeloWhile accolades aren't everything, Carmelo was recognized for his stellar play throughout his prime:
- 6x All NBA (2x 2nd, 4x 3rd)
- Finished 3rd and 6th in MVP voting
He also ranks 10th all time in total career points.
Below are players already voted in in Melo’s VORP and Win Shares range. I left out older players who had some seasons before VORP was calculated since it's cumulative:
VORPDwight Howard 38.97
Rasheed Wallace 38.36
Kevin Johnson 37.27
Jack Sikma 37.02
Carmelo Anthony 36.71Ben Wallace 36.15
Kevin McHale 34.29
Dikembe Mutombo 33.86
Sidney Moncrief 33.14
Tony Parker 30.13
Alonzo Mourning 27.45
Dennis Rodman 21
Win SharesPaul Arizin 108.8
Carmelo Anthony 108.52Manu Ginobili 106.4
Rasheed Wallace 105.09
Rudy Gobert 104.65
Kawhi Leonard 99.16
Allen Iverson 98.97
Tracy McGrady 97.27
Ben Wallace 93.51
Kevin Johnson 92.77
Sam Jones 92.29
Bob Cousy 91.11
Sidney Moncrief 90.32
Dennis Rodman 89.83
Alonzo Mourning 89.74
Dave Cowens 86.32
Isiah Thomas 80.69
Peak carmelo developed into a very good offensive player. The “iso melo” narrative was overstated in his best seasons. This coincided with having a decent PG rotation to keep the ball moving (a little different, but billups certainly got the best out of him in denver). He became one of the better off ball players in 12-13, actually shooting more efficiently and on higher volume than durant in catch and shoot situations. His transition to a good volume 3PT shooter also opened up his game, and he stepped into transition 3s about as well as anyone in the league.
He’s obviously known for his post up and face up game, but not acknowledged as much for being a great offensive rebounder for his position. He had a deceptively quick second jump and soft touch around the rim for put backs. He also possessed a unique rolling spin move to the hoop which created a lot of space on his drives. The one thing he was really average at is finishing at the rim, and i’d say that partially has to do with him not being able to take advantage of the way the game is called these days. He wasn’t a freak show athlete like lebron, and he didn't have those long strides like durant/harden where they know the angles and draw fouls easily.
I'd also point out that while melo's transition to a role player was a bit rocky, he didn't call it quits like iverson when asked to come off the bench. You could make the argument that he was scapegoated in houston (to be clear, no conspiracy theories here about him getting blackballed -- that was just dumb). There's some revisionist history there as he did what he was told. Then his first year in in portland he did exactly what you'd want from a role player in year 17: 38.5% from 3 on 3.9 attempts per game, posting a positive net rating and on/off along with being a great teammate.
As I noted earlier, melo's best years came when he had decent PG play around him. Knicks management largely failed him in this regard post 2013. In 12-13, a merely average PG rotation of felton, kidd and prigioni was quite beneficial to him. In 13-14 felton was out of shape and kidd retired. After that:
14-15: Shane Larkin, Langston Galloway, 37 yr old Prigioni, 33 yr old Calderon
15-16: Langston Galloway, rookie Jerian Grant, 34 yr old Calderon —
this PG rotation was so poor that Carmelo ended up leading the team in APG and just about equaled Calderon in AST%16-17: Rose, Jennings, rookie Ron Baker
Jennings was really the one penetrate and dish PG the knicks had in those 3 seasons. He even seemed to buy in to the fact that he couldn't shoot and really got everyone involved. Of course, he had rose starting in front of him, so his time on the floor with melo was limited. He was used more in bench lineups that actually thrived, relatively speaking.
In an era where dynamic PG play is paramount, knicks management abhorrently ignored the position. I don’t think you can find such ineptitude in a front office with playoff aspirations outside of the cousins-era kings.
Then we get to the clutch play. 82games.com looked at shot data from '04-'09 in the regular season + '04-'08 in the post season. Carmelo was 6th in the league in game winners, but #1 in the league by far in FG% on game winners at 48.1%:
http://82games.com/gamewinningshots.htmBy 2011, he already had enough game winners to choose from to create a top 10 for his career:
For clutch data from 2000-2012, carmelo was 7th in the league in FG%, and 50% of his FGs were assisted, which is interesting to note for being criticized for holding the ball too long.
http://bit.ly/1wnySdJ[I’d obviously prefer eFG% or TS% for these figures, but they weren’t available here]
Carmelo gets a decent amount of flack for his playoff resume, and I think it’s a little overstated, so I’d like to provide some context for each season. It also seems to get pushed aside that making the playoffs 10 seasons in a row is no big deal or something, especially when the majority of them came out west. Below is carmelo’s team SRS rank and the opponent’s SRS rank that he lost to in the playoffs in his prime.
CARMELO SRS RANK / OPPONENT SRS RANK'04 - 11th / 2nd
'05 - 10th / 1st (eventual NBA champion spurs)
'06 - 15th / 9th
'07 - 9th / 1st (eventual NBA champion spurs)
'08 - 11th / 2nd
'09 - 8th / 3rd (eventual NBA champion lakers)
'10 - 8th / 3rd
'11 - 15th / 6th
'12 - 11th / 4th (eventual NBA champion heat)
'13 - 7th / 9th
Aside from 2013, the team he lost to has always been favored in SRS, with 4 of the 10 series losses coming to the eventual NBA champs. To me, this doesn’t reflect a player who’s come up short when he’s been expected to go farther in the playoffs. You can make the argument that if he was a better player, he may have been favored in more series, but that only goes so far.
Some details on his later playoff appearances:
'09 - This run to the WCF almost gets glossed over at times. Nuggets were 2 wins away from the finals, losing to the eventual NBA champion lakers, who were just flat out the better team. He had some great performances during that run.
'11 - Billups gets hurt in game 1 against boston (out for rest of series), then amare gets hurt in game 2 only playing 17 min. First 2 games are decided by 2 and 3 points respectively.
Tony douglas forced to play PG for the rest of the series, basically putting it out of reach.
'12 - Disastrous number of injuries. Tyson chandler finishes off a DPOY season, and of course gets the flu as soon as the playoffs start. Lin doesn’t come back for the playoffs, shumpert and douglas only play 1 game a piece, baron davis eventually goes down, and the knicks are only left with 33 yr old mike bibby to run the point, who already had 1 foot in retirement.
'13 - First time since carmelo came to the knicks that they really looked like a team who could make a run to the finals. PG play was always an issue prior to this season, and felton came up big in the 1st round against boston. Ball movement flowing with kidd and prigioni as well. Then in the 2nd round against indiana, chandler again doesn’t look himself, which would later be revealed that he had an “undisclosed illness” during the series. I think there’s a good chance they beat the pacers with a healthy chandler, and who knows what happens from there.
Here are the best players carmelo’s played with in his prime: andre miller (first few seasons of carmelo's career), kenyon martin (often injured), post 30s iverson, camby (often injured), JR smith, nene (often injured), billups, afflalo, amare (often injured), tyson chandler (often injured), kidd in his last season, in shape felton and porzingis' rookie/soph year.
Outside of iverson, that’s a collection of good players, but nothing that screams "consistent second option", or even "consistent first option" if you want to push carmelo down a notch. Porzingis and carmelo actually had great chemistry until rose came along, but their timelines unfortunately didn't match up. Fit is clearly important, too, and while iverson and carmelo never had "problems" with each other, it wasn't working. It’s not an accident that carmelo’s best seasons came with billups running the show in 2009 and a knicks team in 2013 which focused heavily on keeping the ball moving and quick decision making.
When he made it to OKC with westbrook and george it was just too little too late. Not denying the growing pains, but he was in year 15 and not the same player since his knee surgery. Took him time to adjust his game to a true role player like he did with the blazers and the lakers.
McAdooMcAdoo's MVP season in '75 was quite impressive posting 34.5 PPG, 14.1 RPG, 2.2 APG, 1.1 SPG, 2.1 BPG on 56.9% TS (+6.7 rTS). The Braves would lose in 7 games to the #1 SRS ranked Bullets that year, with a valiant effort by McAdoo: 37.4 PPG, 13.4 RPG, 1.4 APG, .9 SPG, 2.7 BPG, 52.8% TS. He was an efficiency darling in general during his prime with rTS ranging from +3 to +9.
I think at this point in the project every player will have their flaws, and his defense comes off more as knocking him down a peg as opposed to a major liability. The contributions to the lakers '82 and '85 championship teams are also worth noting. In the '82 run he put up 16.7 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 1.6 APG, .7 SPG, 1.5 BPG on 58.7% TS.
