The Right time to make a BIG Move

[Jamaaliver]

Just reading the tea leaves, but it looks like Ferry has options and is finally prepared to make an aggressive move:

The idea of a lottery pick in this year's draft being available in trade talks is a surprising development, but several teams appear amenable to a deal.

...The Boston Celtics, Los Angeles Lakers, Sacramento Kings, Charlotte Hornets, Minnesota Timberwolves and Phoenix Suns are all open to offers for their lottery picks, according to sources.

The ...Atlanta Hawks...are expected to be especially busy looking to move up or to acquire a second pick.Via Chad Ford/ESPN

HERE!

So many opportunities. Sadly, for us to take advantage of any of them it means Horford and/or Millsap will have to go.

I wouldn't mind seeing us trade Teague, Millsap, Bebe for Pau Gasol (sign and trade) and the #7 draft pick.
They get two vets to help Kobe get back to the playoffs and we get a 7 Foot beast in the post plus a shot at Smart, Vonleh or Saric.

[atlantabbq99]

Hawks can trade any 2 or 3 guys on the team, get a lottery pick, and then Budz can go free agent shopping......

Carmelo, Bosh, Bledsoe, Monroe, Randolph, Rudy Gay, Gordon Hayward, Gortat, Evan Turner, Hawes, Blatche, Granger, Vasquez, etc

[jagstang76]

First thing that comes to mind is this past NFL draft. It was similarly stacked with talent and rumors were flying about possible moves. But the actual draft had only one big move into the top 5. I think teams realize the strength of their position in the draft and try to parley it into a big deal. The problem is their asking price for such a move is abnormally high for prospective GMs to feel good about, so in the end nothing happens. Teams would rather stay put and take a solid prospect than comprise on what value they see in their pick.

Considering we had a decent performance throughout the season and in the 1st rd of the playoffs without Horford, I would think we would rather just upgrade on what we have than make a big deal. I see Ferry performing his due diligence to fish for a good deal that we can stomach, but I don't see him just lightly giving away assets. He basically created a new squad just this past offseason and has said several times that he likes the makeup of this team. I could see him trying to find a way to trade up to nab a player he feels strongly about, but I don't think he'll do anything really drastic.

[ATLHawksfan21]

I cant believe that people still actually believe supposed reports about the hawks are going to do this or that. If there's one thing we know about ferry, its that he doesn't show his hand until the deed is done. I would take any rumors about the hawks doing this or that with a grain of salt until I hear it directly from ferry

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[PandaKidd]

I just have a sneaky feeling AH or Millsap are gone before tip off next year

[azuresou1]

Just reading the tea leaves, but it looks like Ferry has options and is finally prepared to make an aggressive move:

The idea of a lottery pick in this year's draft being available in trade talks is a surprising development, but several teams appear amenable to a deal.

...The Boston Celtics, Los Angeles Lakers, Sacramento Kings, Charlotte Hornets, Minnesota Timberwolves and Phoenix Suns are all open to offers for their lottery picks, according to sources.

The ...Atlanta Hawks...are expected to be especially busy looking to move up or to acquire a second pick.Via Chad Ford/ESPN

HERE!

So many opportunities. Sadly, for us to take advantage of any of them it means Horford and/or Millsap will have to go.

I wouldn't mind seeing us trade Teague, Millsap, Bebe for Pau Gasol (sign and trade) and the #7 draft pick.
They get two vets to help Kobe get back to the playoffs and we get a 7 Foot beast in the post plus a shot at Smart, Vonleh or Saric.

2014 called to let you know that Pau Gasol is done.

Millsap for 7? Sure. Millsap, Teague, AND Bebe for Pau and #7? Yuck

[Jamaaliver]

2014 called to let you know that Pau Gasol is done.

Millsap for 7? Sure. Millsap, Teague, AND Bebe for Pau and #7? Yuck

I would respectfully disagree. Gasol avg more Rebounds/Assists/Blocks than Millsap last season. They both avg a shade over 17 ppg with Gasol shooting a higher FG%. At 7-feet and 250 pounds, Gasol is actually big/strong enough to share Center duties with Horford.

Furthermore, we are very clearly mimicking the San Antonio Spurs style of basketball. I submit that from a skill perspective, Gasol can do everything at age 33 that Tim Duncan does for that Spurs team.

There are indeed some injury concerns regarding Gasol at this point. and he'd have to take a pay cut.

But Gasol fits in our system incredibly well, fixes our interior defense and rebounding. Is a consistent shot blocker. And is playoff tested playing in three straight NBA Finals and winning two straight championships.

Gasol at his worst is still a 17 ppg 8 rpg big man capable of abusing smaller players in the post.

And as I have said many times over the years, I believe Horford/Gasol gives us the best front court in the Eastern Conference.

[PandaKidd]

I would welcome Gasol, hes still got something left in the tank. His skillset translates WELL with age.

[theatlfan]

Uh... guys...

While I would agree that Pau has some value and wouldn't mind him on the roster, under no conditions would I give up Teague or Millsap for him... probably not Bebe either. I understand that we would be getting some value out of the #7 pick (which < Millsap from the comps), but... yeah... that's a lot of value for a player who I'd guess wouldn't be returning to LAL regardless of our interest.

First thing that comes to mind is this past NFL draft. It was similarly stacked with talent and rumors were flying about possible moves. But the actual draft had only one big move into the top 5. I think teams realize the strength of their position in the draft and try to parley it into a big deal. The problem is their asking price for such a move is normally too high for prospective GMs to feel good about, so in the end nothing happens. Teams would rather stay put and take a solid prospect than comprise on what value they see in their pick.

1st, I agree with your predictions. I will add to those that if there is a trade made on D-Day, it'll be something under the radar and not something that is in the rumor mill for weeks.

I would caution against comparing the NBA draft to the NFL draft. They are just different beasts with different norms. Most trades in the NFL only include picks (no players) while most trades in the NBA are based around players and salary with the picks being used to make up the difference in value instead of the entire value. This may seem like a subtle difference, but it's so basic a building block that it makes a world once you add in that 30 teams will have 30 differing opinions on a single player...

[azuresou1]

Agreed with theatl.

Millsap is flat out better than Pau - Millsap scored more points on higher efficiency (PLEASE stop using FG%, at LEAST use eFG% while being a better overall defender, and while playing 14 additional games. Comparing Pau to Tim Duncan is an insult to Timmy D.

But even if you think that they're approximately equivalent, Teague and Bebe for the number 7 is ridiculous.

[PandaKidd]

I didnt say I would trade anything for him, isnt he a UFA?

If we signed Gasol, we would have to give up PM or AH. We are going to lose Millsap in a year anyway. so ...........

[Jamaaliver]

But even if you think that they're approximately equivalent, Teague and Bebe for the number 7 is ridiculous

Fair enough. remove Bebe from the proposal and add Mike Muscala.

Millsap is flat out better than Pau - Millsap scored more points on higher efficiency (PLEASE stop using FG%, at LEAST use eFG% while being a better overall defender, and while playing 14 additional games. Comparing Pau to Tim Duncan is an insult to Timmy D.

Again, I'd have to respectfully disagree. Pau's numbers have largely been consistent over the last decade plus. His efficiency numbers the past 2 years are largely skewed due to terrible coaching. (D'Antoni has no idea how to use a guy like PG.)

But Gasol has proven his mettle in the playoffs, Olympics, NBA Finals. He's been All-NBA, All Star. And 17/10 is pretty much his floor.

For instance, looking at Gasol in his last season before D'Antoni showed up (2011-2012), his efficiency numbers across the board are better than Millsap's best season (this year). Gasol has slightly better TS%, eFG%, FG%, PER, and Win Share.

Considering how consistent he has been over the last 13 years, I don't see any reason why Gasol's number wouldn't translate in a system such as ours.

Fair point on Gasol not comparing to Duncan, but let's remember that Gasol has been a top performer since the day he stepped foot in the NBA. He's also a likely Hall of Famer when taking into his consideration his International/NBA/Olympic achievements.

It's worth noting that Millsap's BEST season is comparable to an average season that Gasol has in a poor fitting scheme.

[Jamaaliver]

I didnt say I would trade anything for him, isnt he a UFA?

If we signed Gasol, we would have to give up PM or AH. We are going to lose Millsap in a year anyway. so ...........

This is my thinking, as well. Gasol and Millsap both put up almost identical production last year. But Gasol can play Center, is more proven in the playoffs. but with Millsap leaving anyway...it seriously doesn't matter.

[theatlfan]

I didnt say I would trade anything for him, isnt he a UFA?

If we signed Gasol, we would have to give up PM or AH. We are going to lose Millsap in a year anyway. so ...........

This is my thinking, as well. Gasol and Millsap both put up almost identical production last year. But Gasol can play Center, is more proven in the playoffs. but with Millsap leaving anyway...it seriously doesn't matter.

I'm sorry, I'm not sure I'm following here. Let's assume that a) Gasol is as productive as Millsap (not necessarily a slam dunk considering Gasol has missed 50+ games over the last 2 seasons - one of the signs of age) and b) Gasol will take whatever cap room we have to come here. Is the notion here really to say "well, we got Gasol so instead of trying to get some value for Millsap, we'll just ditch him here"? I don't know, but I'd have to guess we could get *something* for Millsap...

[Yungsta404]

the milsap for pau gasol trade is a wash trade. Both have 1 year of their contract left and neither will most likely will be here for the 2015-2016 season.

Gasol probably wouldnt want to stay here and sign less to be on a contender.

Pau Gasol will give priority to title contenders when he chooses team

http://www.latimes.com/sports/lakers/la ... story.html

milsap might be looking for long term contract that Ferry isnt willing to give and will leave.

[Jamaaliver]

I'm not sure I'm following here. Let's assume that a) Gasol is as productive as Millsap (not necessarily a slam dunk considering Gasol has missed 50+ games over the last 2 seasons - one of the signs of age) and b) Gasol will take whatever cap room we have to come here. Is the notion here really to say "well, we got Gasol so instead of trying to get some value for Millsap, we'll just ditch him here"? I don't know, but I'd have to guess we could get *something* for Millsap...

In my mind, getting Gasol in a Sign and trade for Millsap allows us to simply swap one guy for the other. It leaves our salary cap space intact for the most part. (Assuming Gasol agrees to a contract comparable to PM's.)

I'm thinking something like 3 years for $30 million with additional bonuses for number of games played, All-NBA selections, Conference Finals appearances. We'd still be players in this years Free Agency. (Especially if we trade Teague for a draft pick.)

My bigest issue is that, even as good as Paul and AL appear to be together, I still don't see them being strong enough to carry us deep into the playoffs. It makes no sense that for the last decade we've featured an undersized Center playing next to an undersized PF. It used to be because we were committed to Josh, now we feature an undersized front court because....well, I'm honestly not sure. I don't think there are many front courts in the East with the size to defend both Horford and Gasol in a 7-game series.

[azuresou1]

What's the point of leaving salary cap space intact if we're not going to be adding anyone of significance with that money? I can't see any premier FAs wanting to play with us after we sign and trade a prime Millsap for a broken down Pau.

3/30 for a 34 year old Pau Gasol is a TERRIBLE contract. Over the past 3 seasons he's missed 72 games - almost 30% of all games. Unlike Al, they haven't been freak injuries, but rather wear-and-tear injuries. Why the hell would you want to be signing on for 37 year old Pau? Do you know how limited the list of 37 year old centers who have produced is?

Kareem
Duncan
David Robinson
Hakeem
Robert Parish

That's the whole list. Do you think Pau is even remotely close to that level that we should be signing him to third-star type money?

[azuresou1]

Heck, even if you believe Pau can keep producing and you feel you need to acquire him (which I clearly don't), it'd still be bad management to trade Millsap for S&T Pau. Why not instead offer to S&T Millsap for someone actually good, like Melo? And then you can then sign Pau as a free agent for the 2/16 or whatever he'd actually be looking for on the market.

Sorry if it sounds pissy, but I would literally throw my monitor if I read that we traded Millsap for S&T Pau. That's how bad I think this proposal is.

[Jamaaliver]

3/30 for a 34 year old Pau Gasol is a TERRIBLE contract. Over the past 3 seasons he's missed 72 games - almost 30% of all games. Unlike Al, they haven't been freak injuries, but rather wear-and-tear injuries. Why the hell would you want to be signing on for 37 year old Pau? Do you know how limited the list of 37 year old centers who have produced is?

If it's a three year contract, Gasol wouldn't be on the roster at age 37.

What's the point of leaving salary cap space intact if we're not going to be adding anyone of significance with that money? I can't see any premier FAs wanting to play with us after we sign and trade a prime Millsap for a broken down Pau.

Just because we have cap space doesn't require us to spend it immediately. This plan leaves us with a capable Center to play next to AL, a lottery pick in a loaded draft and cap space for the Free Agent bonanza of 2015.

I guess I just value a proven All-NBA player with Championship experience (Pau) more than I do a guy who once made an all-star team and is on his way out the door anyway (Millsap).

[Jamaaliver]

Heck, even if you believe Pau can keep producing and you feel you need to acquire him (which I clearly don't), it'd still be bad management to trade Millsap for S&T Pau. Why not instead offer to S&T Millsap for someone actually good, like Melo? And then you can then sign Pau as a free agent for the 2/16 or whatever he'd actually be looking for on the market.

Sorry if it sounds pissy, but I would literally throw my monitor if I read that we traded Millsap for S&T Pau. That's how bad I think this proposal is.

I respect your opinion. But I have 0 desire to bring in melo. I don't believe his skill set fits our needs, his attitude fits our culture. I'd much rather bring in a future Hall of Famer who has won at every level of basketball he's ever played. And for what it's worth, Gasol is roughly the same age Garnett was when he led Boston to two NBA Finals in three years. Gasol is exactly the same age as Shaq was when he was traded from LA and led MIAMI to their first NBA Championship.