Atlanta Hawks Draft Discussion Thread

[parson]

I am so embarrassed. I had him confused with...the other white guy, Nik Staukas.

Time for the "all white guys look alike" joke?

[SBM]

McDermott is basically Scott in the NBA a tweener who will get killed on the boards by PF's and not quick enough to guard SF's. He is nothing like Kyle, Nick Stauskas is more like Kyle but quicker and more athletic which would make him more like Reddick but probably quicker and more athletic.

[parson]

Interesting video. I won't spoil the ending for those who haven't seen it yet but the 3 things (2 good and 1 bad) that jump out at me are his age (19) and his weight. He's 280 but he looks flabby. In a few years, he could lose 40lbs of fat and gain 20lbs of muscle. Someone might be able to pump this kid up into a monster.

The one bad thing is really bad, I mean Zaza Pachulia-bad: his no-step vertical leap is 21" and his max vertical is 23".

[SBM]

Sophmore's and Beyond

Rodney Hood
Glenn Robinson III
Gary Harris
TJ Warren
Montrezl Harris
Deonte Burton
CJ Wilcox
Nick Stauskas
Kendall Williams
Andre Dawkins
Sam Dekker
Mitch McGary
Aaron Craft
Patric Young

Note: I am really skeptical about Andre Dawkins, Aaron Craft, and Patric Young because there loads have never been much offensively and they simply don't pass the eye test for NBA players.

[Jamaaliver]

I am so embarrassed. I had him confused with...the other white guy, Nik Staukas.

Time for the "all white guys look alike" joke?

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!

[theatlfan]

Interesting video. I won't spoil the ending for those who haven't seen it yet but the 3 things (2 good and 1 bad) that jump out at me are his age (19) and his weight. He's 280 but he looks flabby. In a few years, he could lose 40lbs of fat and gain 20lbs of muscle. Someone might be able to pump this kid up into a monster.

The one bad thing is really bad, I mean Zaza Pachulia-bad: his no-step vertical leap is 21" and his max vertical is 23".

Little surprised the shooting didn't come out here - 80% FT and 33% 3PT. I'd think that 33% would translate very well in 4-5 years - maybe not as high as 40% but high 30's is easily projectable. If there was one thing that really stood out to me it was that; sweet shooting bigs aren't a dime a dozen.

Not sure I entirely agree on the weight though. I do agree that he has some baby fat that could be converted to muscle, but I couldn't see the conversion leaving him under 270 and I'd think he might even gain weight. His body type is like an NFL OL - nothing stands out except everything - and those guys generally gain weight easily.

[parson]

On 3pt shots, I can find where he's apparently shooting 20% (1 - 5) this season. Link: http://basketball.eurobasket.com/player ... reb/201699

Where did I miss the 33%?

But look again at his vertical. His max vertical reach (11'0.5") is only a half inch better than Dennis Schröder's ... or Kirk Hinrich's or Acie Law.

[theatlfan]

On 3pt shots, I can find where he's apparently shooting 20% (1 - 5) this season. Link: http://basketball.eurobasket.com/player ... reb/201699

Where did I miss the 33%?

But look again at his vertical. His max vertical reach (11'0.5") is only a half inch better than Dennis Schröder's ... or Kirk Hinrich's or Acie Law.

The 33% was in the 1st 30 seconds of the video where they flash all his current stats. Originally, I missed where the stats were only for 12 games though - 8 Adriatic and 4 EuroCup - so I'm assuming that he was 1-3 at the time after your investigation. My bad: they will generally highlight a SSS instead of putting a %-age, but the video was from earlier in the season so I guess they hadn't made the adjustment yet and I missed it. Also, his 80% FT looks to now in the low 70% - good but not in elite that 80% @ nearly 7' would have given him. Honestly, even if he 3PT'ers were 1-5, I'd still hold out hope for an Okur type upside with an 80% FT%. Now, it's a possibility, but nothing I'd view more than one of many possible outcomes for him.

As far as the vert, we're in agreement, it's not only an eye-opener but also something you'd have to live with if he was on your team (it ain't getting significantly better). I just don't think that I'd have anything I could add that you haven't already touched on.

[Jamaaliver]

I'd love to get Nurkic, not only because he's a 7 footer but also for personal reasons: him playing for the Bosnian team. I haven't really followed him but I have some family in Europe who have tracked him throughout and are legitimately impressed.

The more I look into Nurkic, the more enamored I become with him. He's a long way from contributing though. Like even further away than Bebe. And he also strikes me as a boom or bust pick. He'll either become one of the top Centers in the league, or completely fizzle out.

Even his projection from NBADRAFT.net compares him to Zaza and Pekovic. As if they agree he'll either be pretty great or just a role player.

In a draft as deep as this one, I'm conflicted on whether we should pass a more polished player for such a project. Especially with Muscala and Bebe already in the team's future plans.

[Jamaaliver]

Question: How set are we on Dennis as the future at PG? If, say, Marcus Smart falls, and we have a shot to trade up (at, say the cost of Dennis plus the #15 pick) do we do it? What about for Ennis or Gary Harris. This was part of the reason I wanted DS to get more significant PT this season. To see if he's even worth all the growing pains he's inevitably going through. Are we still completely sold on him as the PG of the future?

[parson]

On 3pt shots, I can find where he's apparently shooting 20% (1 - 5) this season. Link: http://basketball.eurobasket.com/player ... reb/201699

Where did I miss the 33%?

But look again at his vertical. His max vertical reach (11'0.5") is only a half inch better than Dennis Schröder's ... or Kirk Hinrich's or Acie Law.

The 33% was in the 1st 30 seconds of the video where they flash all his current stats. Originally, I missed where the stats were only for 12 games though - 8 Adriatic and 4 EuroCup - so I'm assuming that he was 1-3 at the time after your investigation. My bad: they will generally highlight a SSS instead of putting a %-age, but the video was from earlier in the season so I guess they hadn't made the adjustment yet and I missed it. Also, his 80% FT looks to now in the low 70% - good but not in elite that 80% @ nearly 7' would have given him. Honestly, even if he 3PT'ers were 1-5, I'd still hold out hope for an Okur type upside with an 80% FT%. Now, it's a possibility, but nothing I'd view more than one of many possible outcomes for him.

As far as the vert, we're in agreement, it's not only an eye-opener but also something you'd have to live with if he was on your team (it ain't getting significantly better). I just don't think that I'd have anything I could add that you haven't already touched on.

I really should stop the video and read those stats but I usually just use them to eyeball the player. Thanks for reminding me.

[theatlfan]

Question: How set are we on Dennis as the future at PG? If, say, Marcus Smart falls, and we have a shot to trade up (at, say the cost of Dennis plus the #15 pick) do we do it? What about for Ennis or Gary Harris. This was part of the reason I wanted DS to get more significant PT this season. To see if he's even worth all the growing pains he's inevitably going through. Are we still completely sold on him as the PG of the future?

Oof... I like Schröder and I'm not 100% that Smart's game will translate to our system, but yeah, I'd still have a hard time not pulling the trigger on that deal. Just like Smart's intangibles that much. Having said that, I wouldn't do the same for any PG but Smart and Exum though - not even Ennis. Just think Ennis and Schröder are too similar offensively and I prefer Schröder defensively.

I really should stop the video and read those stats but I usually just use them to eyeball the player. Thanks for reminding me.

Lol - Maybe it's not the best time for the reminder when it led me astray...

[parson]

Lol - Maybe it's not the best time for the reminder when it led me astray...

Eh, I'm going to mess up so many times I'll need all the help I can get.

[SBM]

Sophomore and Beyond. PT 1

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d8r6-eX3yzc[/youtube]

Hood is efficient but he reminds me of the Wesley Johnson's of the world that transfer to a high quality team then have a good year, leave and never live up to hype. He really is best fit to be a one dribble shooter or spot up shooter. He has the size to be a starting SG because he sure does not rebound well enough to be a starting SF. Hood's skillset for a starter is questionable because he really has not shown the ability to draw doubles like Kyle by using screens.

Best fit: Bench role player.

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N1jXC0Mr5jI[/youtube]

GRIII is also efficient but he goes through a lot of hot and cold spells which makes you think that there are issues there with fundamentals and approach. He is listed at 6"6 which is not ideal size for a SF and is another guy that does not hit the boards well enough for his position.

Best fit: Bench wing.

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fF8DVz1udh8[/youtube]

Gary Harris is another efficient offensive player but poor rebounding player in comparison to his peer's in the NBA. He seems to have decent quickness and be able to use ball screens well enough. He just doesn't seem overly athletic and does not look any taller than 6"4 which is not ideal size for a SG. Bradley Beal is listed at 6"3 but got you 4 more rebounds than Harris did. He is intriguing because his college offensive efficiency is better than Beal's was.

Best fit: Needs to earn a starting SG role. Fringe starter with a lot to prove.

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pi1bx_0A99k[/youtube]

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D1B6P8uLN9I[/youtube]

TJ Warren is efficient also and is one of the better scorers in college basketball. I don't think he is a star but he could be a 15 ppg + guy as a starter. I think he is a better version of Jordan Hamilton with the Nuggets. He rebounds well enough at the SF position even though that could improve slightly.

Best fit: Fringe starter. Needs to earn starting role could be a nice bench scorer to start with.

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3PLBwFo5Xbc[/youtube]

Montrezl Harrell is a player you can't overlook because of his efficiency but we really don't need just another PF and that is what he looks to be if he heads to the NBA. He really does not do anything great enough for us to take him.

Best fit: Just another PF.

[Jamaaliver]

^Nice write-up, SuperiorBlogdude!

I've been pretty enamored with Rodney Hood for awhile now. Seeing the growth in his game under Coach K for 18 months has been remarkable.

Hood's skillset for a starter is questionable because he really has not shown the ability to draw doubles like Kyle by using screens.

This much I would disagree with. I like Rodney Hood quite a bit in our system and think he could heady player and starting SF long term. A great second tier player (on a team full of second tier players.) Reminds me of a young Caron Butler. Very unlikely he's still around when we pick, though.

TJ Warren is efficient also and is one of the better scorers in college basketball. I don't think he is a star but he could be a 15 ppg + guy as a starter.

This is the young man I'm really interested to watch more of. He seems to be a top flight collegeiate scorer. From just the little bit I've seen, I think he could be a player in the mold of Kawhi Leonard. particularly in our offensive system (where lmited wings like Korver, Demarre can be successful). Defensively he's solid, not spectacular. But that 3 point shot needs work. I think he could be that goto scorer for us when the team goes long droughts without a bucket. This looks like the right pick for us long (and short) term.

My top choices:
1.Rodney Hood 2.Dario Saric 3.TJ Warren 4. Jusuf Nurkic 5.Adreian Payne

[hawkschop1]

Don't sleep on UCLA's 6'9 Kyle Anderson!! He has drawn comparisons to Magic Johnson! He is a do-it-all player averaging 15 ppg 8 Rebs 6.6 Assists 1.9 steals 48% from 3s. A slow player yes but gifted nonetheless. He'd be perfect in our system and should still be available when our name is called!

My personal favorite for where we are picking! I just hope Ferry gets a wing this summer...three solid options IMO

Anderson, Warren, Hood

[theatlfan]

Watching that Rodney Hood video and KJ McDaniels still stands out for the opponent. For those who don't frequent peachtreehoops, the prospect guy there loves him some McDaniels and rates him as #5 on his personal Big Board. While I disagree with him putting him so high (McDaniels reminds me more of an Iman Shumpert type), I don't disagree with giving him a close look in the mid-1st.

I'd still put James Young and Jerami Grant higher on the Hawks' Big Board than McDaniels and any of the guys listed in the last few posts - just think both of their upside and potential is that much greater due to length and athleticism. I think that both Ferry and Coach Bud are big proponents of length, not height, being the #1 physical trait for a position. Coach Bud talked about it with Korver; Ferry has consistently drafted guys with very impressive length - especially in the 1st round. Outside of Harrell and Anderson (who are both PFs IMO), none of the other guys have great length - some are pretty bad... Hood might even get a "T-Rex" tag come combine time.

[Jamaaliver]

I'd still put James Young higher...than any of the guys listed in the last few posts - just think the...upside and potential is that much greater due to length and athleticism.

I am super reluctant to lean on any of the UK freshmen. other than Anthony Davis, most of these kids don't know how to play basketball.

James Young in particular reminds me of JR Smith (on the court). Explosive, but inconsistent and erratic. BK would have jumped at a kid like this. but Ferry seems like he'd go after a player with a specific skill set or who was more polished overall.

[SBM]

Sophomores and Beyond: PT2



[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NHZAqUheUMk[/youtube]

Deonte Burton: Under the radar guy with good athletic ability and efficiency. The only problem is he is not a star and we don't need another PG unless he is a bonafide star with some size.

Best fit: Backup or beyond PG.

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6nAHSWG5xas[/youtube]

CJ Wilcox: Another efficient guy with good shooting touch and scoring ability. Not overly explosive but he is proven been doing it for 4 years and not much drop-off. The big question is how much bigger and better is he than a healthy John Jenkins.

Best fit: Fill John Jenkins role, explosive bench shooter, maybe 6th man down the line.

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M-ymNs3Bce8[/youtube]

Nik Stauskas: Another efficient guy with good shooting touch. Better athlete than you might think. Better all around game than you might think. The same question applies to him as it does to Wilcox. How much bigger and better is he than healthy John Jenkins.

Best fit: Fill John Jenkins role, explosive bench shooter, maybe 6th man down the line.

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7BCW7CjHSZ0[/youtube]

Kendall Williams: Williams is another efficient player who has been doing it under the radar for years. He is a combo guard with explosive ability who can score and dish. Problem is team already has many of these types.

Best fit: Bench guard, 9th man and beyond for us, maybe eventual backup for somebody.

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qj5iWivM1tU[/youtube]

Sam Dekker: Efficient player who does not rebound it as well as you would like for a starter at SF when moving to the next level. Never going to be great but does a little of everything. Shoots well enough and passes well enough.

Best fit: bench wing with the ability to start in the right situation

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=czm7_b5jdi0[/youtube]

Mitch McGary: My favorite sleeper if he comes out this year. He might come back due to the injury that made him miss almost whole season. He is a really good rebounding big and a good pick and roll offensive player.

Best fit: 3rd big that can play PF and C.

Last part coming

[theatlfan]

I'd still put James Young higher...than any of the guys listed in the last few posts - just think the...upside and potential is that much greater due to length and athleticism.

I am super reluctant to lean on any of the UK freshmen. other than Anthony Davis, most of these kids don't know how to play basketball.

James Young in particular reminds me of JR Smith (on the court). Explosive, but inconsistent and erratic. BK would have jumped at a kid like this. but Ferry seems like he'd go after a player with a specific skill set or who was more polished overall.

Wow... you packed a lot of points in there...
One good thing is that we wouldn't need to "lean on" any draftee going forward. Much like Schröder this year, it appears that we're at the point that we can insist that a prospect beat out a handful of useful role players for serious PT in his rookie year. I suspect this will always be the case for Ferry and Coach Bud going forward.

I'm not sure of how much the one-and-done kids know about basketball is a symptom of UK and Coach Cal or a larger issue across all college basketball. We now even have the NBA commish getting involved with his age limit proposal. Meanwhile, UK is the standard bearer for the issue since Coach Cal relies so heavily on getting highly talented kids. The problem is that typically the kids with the most talent realize this and want to get paid faster - hence, the group of national players that should have the most upside every year are also the youngest players who are not necessarily physically or mentally ready for the rigors of an NBA lifestyle. There are larger questions here (develop players versus winning game being a key one), but suffice to say that I wouldn't peg the problems you point out directing on Coach Cal or UK as much as just a sign of the times.

Before moving onto discussing the specific player, I would like to hit on the last sentence in regards to drafting. 1st, BK never really drafted an "inconsistent and erratic" athlete with his 1st. Chills, Marvin, Shelden, Horford, and Acie all had storied college careers. If I were to rate the guys that I'd think were the most erratic players we've drafted since BK was hired, then I'd probably say Teague although Crawford and Nogueira would be in the discussion... probably Schröder too. Maybe BK would have changed his tune if he was always drafting in the top 10 (he did take bigger chances with his 2nds), but so have the GMs we've had since.

2nd, with Ferry's draft last year, I'm not 100% on the "Ferry prefers polish over upside" argument - at least with his 1sts. I was pretty gung ho behind the theory last year, but the 3 names we were associated with for our 1sts in last year's draft (Nogueira, Schröder, Giannis) are all still higher on upside than present polish. Was last year just a 1 year blip because of the weakness of the draft overall? Was the year before the blip due to the circumstances that Ferry was walking in cold? Were neither years technically a blip at all and he was just drafting the player/s that he thought the team needed most? Does the team needs take into account his faith in player development of the coaching staff? Does it have to do with what he's willing to accept from an international prospect versus a homegrown product? Lots of questions here that I don't think we will be able to answer fully before this year's draft day - maybe not even next year's either. Even the consistencies I see (emphasis on wingspan compared to height; affiliation with AAU either non-existent or de-emphasized) are possibly SSS mirages that I cling to more because of quotes and supporting anecdotes than a clear and present timeline of hard facts to support it.

As to Young in particular, you say that Young's game reminds you of JR Smith's on the court, but I'd actually see that as a huge positive. If JR Smith learned to be a factor when his shot wasn't falling, then he could be a very solid starter in the league - maybe even an AS level player. Since Young isn't the head case that JR is (and, notably, will only be 1 month older when he is drafted), I'd think that Young could improve his game in the ways that JR couldn't or wouldn't. I'm not saying that Young doesn't have holes in his game (he most definitely does), but when I look at the entire package - age, upside, and current production - I have to think that Young is right up there with anyone past the top 4-5 in this year's draft. Having said that, I still like Grant slightly more but I do like Young.