The AL Horford Dilemma

[Jamaaliver]

Consensus seems to be that Horford will, unquestionably, receive a max contract this summer.

ESPN's Amin Elhassan, Marc Spears and Brian Windhorst all agree without hesitation. 15:00 minute mark

As uneasy as that thought makes me, it doesn't means that he is so coveted even now, that we have to we re-sign him. Worst Case Scenario: there will be a trade market for his services next summer should we find ourselves needing to rebuild. And likely for solid value in return. (Just look what an expiring Ibaka pulled in trade.)

But, again, if we issue Horford the largest contract in Hawks history...he's got to be the focal point. We can't pay him $25+ million to only lead this team in FG%.

I trust AL Horford with 18+ FGAs per game more than any other option.

[Skyhawk1]

I think he would be perfect with the Pistons. They would win 55+ games with him the line up. I used to love his game but he's been the same player since we drafted ( a very good one), unable to take the lead and be the center piece of this franchise. In all fairness, not even LaMarcus Aldridge did that in Portland. The problem that I have with Horford is that his game will not get better it may actually take a step back given his age and the fact he would require close to max money. We would be a 4th seed at best with this team as constructed with him and Millsap playing together. I'd let him go and trade away P. Millsap and K. Korver. Both still have great value and lots of suitors. Do not be afraid to break it down Hawks. We won't get past the Cavaliers unless Durant signs here.

[King Ken]

He's a must sign just off his cap hold alone. It's an asset. He's basically 18 million for us at 28 million for everyone else. That give us 10 extra million which is basically 24+ million in cap room. By that alone, he's an asset above all else.

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[PandaKidd]

I am interested in this Dwight Howard rumors coming out (which are mostly being fueled by HIS camp no doubt). If we sign Horford, theres no room for Howard. Not unless we deal Millsap.

Ive stated Id rather have Millsap next to D12, not Horford. So im not sure how that would work out.

[atlantabbq99]

I am interested in this Dwight Howard rumors coming out (which are mostly being fueled by HIS camp no doubt). If we sign Horford, theres no room for Howard. Not unless we deal Millsap.

Ive stated Id rather have Millsap next to D12, not Horford. So im not sure how that would work out.

Budz have no intensions in trading Millsap and has alot of interest in signing both Horford and Dwight.

[PandaKidd]

I am interested in this Dwight Howard rumors coming out (which are mostly being fueled by HIS camp no doubt). If we sign Horford, theres no room for Howard. Not unless we deal Millsap.

Ive stated Id rather have Millsap next to D12, not Horford. So im not sure how that would work out.

Budz have no intensions in trading Millsap and has alot of interest in signing both Horford and Dwight.

I just cant believe that. You have gaping holes on the wing, and youre going to sign ANOTHER Big man?

If you sign D12 then you arent signing Bazemore. So then you have Millsap at the 3? Good luck with that. Horford/D12 at PF /C

Splitter is a backup to D12. who is the backup to AH? Scott?

Lets not forget your starting SG is still 35 years old.

A lineup of
DS
Korver
Millsap
AH
D12

WOULD BE AWFUL. Talk about no outside shooting. Talk about an aging lineup. Im all ears if im missing something here. Your backup SF is Thabo? Talk about an OLD team.

I would be in favor of signing D12 and flipping Horford or Millsap in a SnT for a STARTING wing player.

[PandaKidd]

I liked Bazemore because he had energy and a spark to him. he was youthful and athletic. 3+D is tossed around but he was a very serviceable guy for us especially at his salary. Millsap to me cant cover starting SFs night in night out. I just dont think its his game. I think hes like AL, playing a "bigger" position.

The other problem we have is Splitter. Someone has to go if you sign Howard because hes not riding the bench. Is it possible they start THJ at 2 guard this year with Korver off the bench?

[jayu70]

I am interested in this Dwight Howard rumors coming out (which are mostly being fueled by HIS camp no doubt). If we sign Horford, theres no room for Howard. Not unless we deal Millsap.

Ive stated Id rather have Millsap next to D12, not Horford. So im not sure how that would work out.

Budz have no intensions in trading Millsap and has alot of interest in signing both Horford and Dwight.

I just cant believe that. You have gaping holes on the wing, and youre going to sign ANOTHER Big man?

If you sign D12 then you arent signing Bazemore. So then you have Millsap at the 3? Good luck with that. Horford/D12 at PF /C

Splitter is a backup to D12. who is the backup to AH? Scott?

Lets not forget your starting SG is still 35 years old.

A lineup of
DS
Korver
Millsap
AH
D12

WOULD BE AWFUL. Talk about no outside shooting. Talk about an aging lineup. Im all ears if im missing something here. Your backup SF is Thabo? Talk about an OLD team.

I would be in favor of signing D12 and flipping Horford or Millsap in a SnT for a STARTING wing player.

It depends on how much D12 wants and how much Baze is willing to accept.
Dwight at say $24mil, Baze at $12mil - No Splitter and Scott - gets us close( may have to make another small move)- Millsap of the bench.

[Jamaaliver]

Lets not forget your starting SG is still 35 years old. A lineup of
DS
Korver
Millsap
AH
D12

WOULD BE AWFUL. Talk about no outside shooting. Talk about an aging lineup. Im all ears if im missing something here. Your backup SF is Thabo? Talk about an OLD team.

I would be in favor of signing D12 and flipping Horford or Millsap in a SnT for a STARTING wing player.

Agreed...with all above.

If we were to get D12, I suspect Korver/Thabo manage the wing positions while Prince gets a crash course in our system.

I don't think Bazemore is coming back. We drafted three wing players, traded for THJ last draft. KB will have other suitors, as we seem pretty well stocked with 3 & D players of his caliber (or higher?).

[PandaKidd]

Budz have no intensions in trading Millsap and has alot of interest in signing both Horford and Dwight.

I just cant believe that. You have gaping holes on the wing, and youre going to sign ANOTHER Big man?

If you sign D12 then you arent signing Bazemore. So then you have Millsap at the 3? Good luck with that. Horford/D12 at PF /C

Splitter is a backup to D12. who is the backup to AH? Scott?

Lets not forget your starting SG is still 35 years old.

A lineup of
DS
Korver
Millsap
AH
D12

WOULD BE AWFUL. Talk about no outside shooting. Talk about an aging lineup. Im all ears if im missing something here. Your backup SF is Thabo? Talk about an OLD team.

I would be in favor of signing D12 and flipping Horford or Millsap in a SnT for a STARTING wing player.

It depends on how much D12 wants and how much Baze is willing to accept.
Dwight at say $24mil, Baze at $12mil - No Splitter and Scott - gets us close( may have to make another small move)- Millsap of the bench.

I think if youre bazemore, this is your last chance to get a BIG contract. He may never ever be in this position again, and theres NO WAY he settles for 12 million a year. I will bet you lunch itll take 15-18million to sign him. Hes going to want a bigger deal than DMC, he put up similar numbers and hes 2 years younger.

[jayu70]

I just cant believe that. You have gaping holes on the wing, and youre going to sign ANOTHER Big man?

If you sign D12 then you arent signing Bazemore. So then you have Millsap at the 3? Good luck with that. Horford/D12 at PF /C

Splitter is a backup to D12. who is the backup to AH? Scott?

Lets not forget your starting SG is still 35 years old.

A lineup of
DS
Korver
Millsap
AH
D12

WOULD BE AWFUL. Talk about no outside shooting. Talk about an aging lineup. Im all ears if im missing something here. Your backup SF is Thabo? Talk about an OLD team.

I would be in favor of signing D12 and flipping Horford or Millsap in a SnT for a STARTING wing player.

It depends on how much D12 wants and how much Baze is willing to accept.
Dwight at say $24mil, Baze at $12mil - No Splitter and Scott - gets us close( may have to make another small move)- Millsap of the bench.

I think if youre bazemore, this is your last chance to get a BIG contract. He may never ever be in this position again, and theres NO WAY he settles for 12 million a year. I will bet you lunch itll take 15-18million to sign him. Hes going to want a bigger deal than DMC, he put up similar numbers and hes 2 years younger.

Agreed for the most part but is it really 'his last chance' at a BIG contract. How about a 1+1 deal and become a free agent in 2017 when the cap is even higher? I think the Hawks would have his Full Bird Right then the Hawks can exceed the cap to re-sign him.

[PandaKidd]

I dont think Bazemore is the caliber player who can sign a 1+1 deal. Its a huge risk for him. 1+1 guys are like Lebron/Durant/WB/etc superstars whose career isnt in jeopardy of ending or have off court endorsement deals in the 100s of millions.

Bazemore has made less than 2 million a year the last 2 years. He could sign a contract for 15/18 million a year OR MORE for 3-4 years. At his age, this could be it for him. Because if he goes to the 76ers for 3 years you may never hear from him again and hwen hes 30 he may not get this big a contract then.

[ATL Boy]

Zach Lowe reports that the Hawks are reluctant at giving Horford the 5th year, something he really wants.

Smart of Bud and Wilcox to not just offer it automatically. Horford on 4 years (or a 3+1) is more valuable than Horford on a 5 year deal (or 4+1).

We can still offer Al more than anyone else, even on a 4-year deal (7.5% raises as opposed to 4.5%) but my fear is that this hurts his feelings and he decides to sign elsewhere.

Hopefully the fact that we can give more money anyway and his reported love of Atlanta and the system will sway him toward re-signing on a 4-year deal. Things are getting real, though. We're sitting at the poker table and Bud/Wilcox are making their move; it's a high risk gamble to say the least.


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[Jamaaliver]

Zach Lowe reports that the Hawks are reluctant at giving Horford the 5th year, something he really wants.

This is a risky proposition to make to AL, with all the attention he's receiving. But it is, undeniably, extremely wise. That 5th year could be catastrophic for the franchise at $30+ million. Hope this doesn't push him further from re-signing.

I'd be willing to give him that No-Trade clause in exchange for no 5th year on a contract. That way both sides get some measure of protection.

[Jamaaliver]

Some pro-Horford defensive stats, courtesy of ESPN:

AL Horford

Al Horford defended 262 direct posts plays in the 2015-16 regular season, more than any other player in the NBA. He allowed players to score 0.84 point per direct post. Among the 12 players with the most direct posts defended, only Defensive Player of the Year runner-up Draymond Green allowed fewer points per direct post.

Here

[jayu70]

Some pro-Horford defensive stats, courtesy of ESPN:

AL Horford

Al Horford defended 262 direct posts plays in the 2015-16 regular season, more than any other player in the NBA. He allowed players to score 0.84 point per direct post. Among the 12 players with the most direct posts defended, only Defensive Player of the Year runner-up Draymond Green allowed fewer points per direct post.

Here

Not surprised, Al's deficiencies is with rebounding.

[PandaKidd]

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2649317-ten-moves-that-make-a-lot-of-sense-as-nba-free-agency-nears

In this scenario, Boston sends Amir Johnson, Jae Crowder, Marcus Smart, the rights to Demetrious Jackson and a 2018 first-round pick to the Hawks.

Horford, per sources, wants to see the Hawks improve the team's roster before committing to a long-term deal with Atlanta. The Hawks have reason to believe they'll be able to do just that. The pre-draft, three-team trade that sent Jeff Teague to the Indiana Pacers netted Atlanta the 12th pick (via the Utah Jazz) in the first round (Baylor's Taurean Prince) was the first step. But despite having solid ownership, management and coaching, with a recent history of playoff progression—other than when they play Cleveland—the Hawks remain the longest of longshots to land Durant. As of Wednesday night, he hadn't even agreed to a meeting with the team. That would leave Atlanta native Dwight Howard, who will meet with the Hawks and Celtics, and who certainly would help.

Thoughts?

[Jamaaliver]

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2649317-ten-moves-that-make-a-lot-of-sense-as-nba-free-agency-nears

In this scenario, Boston sends Amir Johnson, Jae Crowder, Marcus Smart, the rights to Demetrious Jackson and a 2018 first-round pick to the Hawks.

Horford, per sources, wants to see the Hawks improve the team's roster before committing to a long-term deal with Atlanta.

Thoughts?

Ouch. That's a punch to the gut hearing our best player say that. But it's, essentially, true. A fair assessment. Particularly after dumping Teague and getting a modest player in return. We're a worse team today than we were in January. And a worse team than we were in 2015. Bud & Wes have their work cut out for them.


That BOS trade isn't terrible. We get pieces with longer term value...but we'd be taking a step back this season. And we'd go from Pace-and-Space to just Pace.

[atlantabbq99]

The market has spoken and Horford is not only a max player, but he is a max player for more than half of the NBA teams and most if not all contender teams.

[Jamaaliver]

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