How the Hawks' Free Agency Plans fell apart

[Jamaaliver]

Zach Lowe takes a deeper look into what the team intended to do...and what went wrong:

So, um, what exactly did the Atlanta Hawks do?

They tried to straddle two paths at once, and ultimately fell into the netherworld between them.

The Hawks have to worry about butts in seats. Coach Mike Budenholzer...has spent the last two decades winning a ridiculous number of games in San Antonio and Atlanta. Coaches with that sort of track record don't easily swallow full-on rebuilds.

But a second consecutive playoff sweep against the Cavaliers demoralized the Hawks. It laid bare that their current core would not be able to compete against LeBron James & Co.

They had an elegant plan to shake up the present while boosting the future at the same time. One problem: To execute that scheme, you actually need to re-sign Horford. The Hawks didn't. ...the difference in the end came down to about $5 million total. That is essentially nothing in the new cap landscape.

...for now, it looks as if the Hawks swapped centers and missed a chance to snag some valuable future assets.

Blowing up a carefully crafted plan over that amount is either blind stubbornness or an indication that the Hawks are fine with their fallback of pairing Millsap and Howard.

But Millsap now knows the Hawks tried to move him, and his trade value declines every day....

Here

[Jamaaliver]

The Hawks were juggling a lot of balls in those frantic moments before Horford bolted to Boston. They had already agreed to a...deal with Dwight Howard. They were working to re-sign Horford anyway, and arranging a trade that would jettison Paul Millsap -- their best player last season.

The Horford-Howard front line would keep Atlanta competitive, and dealing Millsap would net rebuilding assets -- young players and picks to plop atop the No. 12 pick they received from Utah in the Jeff Teague deal. They could rebuild without dropping from the postseason.

It was an interesting plan until it fell apart. Horford is gone, Millsap remains, and the trade assets he'd have fetched stay in Denver, Phoenix or someplace else.

They talked about Millsap trades with Phoenix, Denver, Toronto and Houston; the Nuggets were ready to flip a players-and-picks package headlined by Kenneth Faried, according to several sources familiar with the matter.

Thoughts?

Predictions?

Concerns?

[Jamaaliver]

So reading the above leaves me...conflicted.

It's a relief to hear that the front office:

A) Recognized we weren't good enough to contend as constituted. (It was a 3 to 12 months late for my tastes, but, I digress.)

B) Are not interested (yet) in a complete rebuild

C) Had a reasonable, discernible plan to collect assets whilst fielding a competitive team.


Hell, a team, built around twin towers, under contract for years, with a sparkplug at PG approaching his prime and that other teams covet...that's a solid approach on top of the picks/prospects we'd get back for Millsap.

But to let that plan fall apart over such a measly amount...is perplexing. Especially when Lowe breaks down the economics of re-signing Millsap next summer.

[ATL Boy]

It was indeed a brilliant plan, one which i was completely for from the second reports surfaced of us trying to re-sign Al.

Shame that we'll look back on it knowing that $6 million over 5 years is what kept us from this.


Sent from my iPhone using RealGM Forums

[Phunkabilly]

This seems a little weird to me. Rumors had it that Al wasn't too keen on playing with Dwight. This was mentioned in the report as well. I gotta think that if this truly was the Hawks' grand plan, SURELY they would have run the idea by Al before trying to execute it. Why would the Hawks try to pair the two if either one wasn't on board with it? Something's gotta be bogus here... Either Al DIDN'T have a problem playing with Dwight, or the Hawks were planning on pairing Dwight with Paul all along, and resigning Al would've just been icing on the cake.

[jayu70]

They had an aggressive plan - I can live with the results. We couldn't stay the same.

[MaceCase]

This seems a little weird to me. Rumors had it that Al wasn't too keen on playing with Dwight. This was mentioned in the report as well. I gotta think that if this truly was the Hawks' grand plan, SURELY they would have run the idea by Al before trying to execute it. Why would the Hawks try to pair the two if either one wasn't on board with it? Something's gotta be bogus here... Either Al DIDN'T have a problem playing with Dwight, or the Hawks were planning on pairing Dwight with Paul all along, and resigning Al would've just been icing on the cake.

It's the latter. Hawks were open to options but like any good front office they didn't lay all of their eggs in one basket.

[xccelerate]

Zach didn't say anything that hawks fans didn't already know. He just made it public to NBA regulars.

Kevin Arnovitz talked about us on Zach Lowe's 7/6/2016 podcast starting at the 40ish minute mark. Gave lots of insight.

B) Are not interested (yet) in a complete rebuild

Arnovitz says it's because Hawks don't think the business side can tolerate a complete rebuild in the podcast.

[Jamaaliver]

Arnovitz says it's because Hawks don't think the business side can tolerate a complete rebuild in the podcast.

ThAt sentiment is completely understandable. But long-term, I think the insistence on fielding a playoff team EVERY season hurts the franchise. We see that each of the top teams outside of SAS are all built on lottery talent, elite players.

Even a quick, one year rebuild could provide the franchise with that one singular talent we've lacked.

Good is the enemy of great. And we've spent the last decade clinging so desperately to good...that we've managed to never truly be great.



Sent from my iPad using RealGM Forums

[jayu70]

Arnovitz says it's because Hawks don't think the business side can tolerate a complete rebuild in the podcast.

ThAt sentiment is completely understandable. But long-term, I think the insistence on fielding a playoff team EVERY season hurts the franchise. We see that each of the top teams outside of SAS are all built on lottery talent, elite players.

Even a quick, one year rebuild could provide the franchise with that one singular talent we've lacked.

Good is the enemy of great. And we've spent the last decade clinging so desperately to good...that we've managed to never truly be great.



Sent from my iPad using RealGM Forums

'1 year - quick, rebuild' - sounds good in theory.

[td00]

Is our ownership group really 'all-in'?
If they were, we would have all 3 signed and delivered.....$5M is very little. CLEVELAND will have spent 25M more than us easily come tip off.

Our strategy looks like we are 'learning' how to create a team. Getting a pick for Teague has to show results. Its too early on that one.

Teague, Sap and Al were our only assets. We got Sap+a draft pick.......that's not in our favor.

I like we are trying to move in a different direction, but last year's team is probably as close to what Bud wanted to get out of 5 guys on the offensive side. Its our defense that needed an uptick, and Howard gives us that.

Now, I always thought Sap/Howard would be a better combo than Al/Howard. Sap is better on the perimeter and works better in the open court. Al will be missed though....he was about as consistent as you could get, yet never a superstar.

Dwight coming out getting 25/15 would ease our worries, but DS needs help. If he gets hurt, we have a huge void, especially in back-2-back games. Hinrich is okay for spot minutes.

All of what we saw happen was obvious; we would have more if we kept Al instead of Sap, but would it have made us better? I didn't want 5 years for Al. I wanted to improve our backcourt if Sap had to go. We didn't do that, so lots of questions, along with helping out Boston.

We need one more big move to excite the fans for next year, but it may be too late, and we decided on Moose over Hump. Not a good move.

[Jamaaliver]

AJC's Mark Bradley has been gone on vacation for a few weeks. He finally weighs in on the Hawks 'somewhat bummer summer'.

The Hawks could have played this offseason two ways. They could have:

A) traded Jeff Teague and let Al Horford leave as the first moves of a massive rebuilding, or

B) they could have kept at least one of the above and sought to carry on as before.

Being the Hawks, they tried to do both. Being the Hawks, they managed neither.

To recap: The Hawks could have offered Horford a maximum contract but didn’t quite. Before they knew what Horford would do, they committed themselves to Howard. How many ways can you botch what should have been a done deal? Does Tony Ressler still believe the Budenholzer/Wes Wilcox front office is “what’s working”?

Yes, they’ve gotten different, which some among us believed they needed to do. Had they gotten worse by design, we might have admired the thinking therein. But where’s the wisdom in getting worse by accident?

They overpaid to keep Kent Bazemore, which you feared they’d do, but compromised any attempt at continuity by signing Howard while negotiating with Horford, a great teammate who apparently didn’t fancy playing Jimmy Olsen to the erstwhile Superman.

Say what you will about the Horford/Millsap tandem...the two were made for Mike Budenholzer’s pace-and-space offense. If there’s one man not made for P&S, it’s the guy Budenholzer unaccountably just signed. Howard can’t make a jump shot. (Or free throws.) He hasn’t averaged two assists in any of his 12 pro seasons. Of Howard [and] Horford: One spaces the floor. The other clogs the lane.

And yet: To accommodate the Dwightmare, the Hawks essentially drove off their second-best player and tried to trade their best.

It gets worse. Millsap will surely opt out of his contract next summer. If he bolts, the Hawks would have a core of Dennis Schroder, Bazemore and Howard. If keeping Horford mightn’t have taken them anywhere they hadn’t already been, losing him all but assures they’re going nowhere.

Here

[td00]

I get it; Bradley doesn't like what happened this offseason. now he says the ownership group 'may' doubt Bud/Wilcox. Nonsense to me.

Just listened to Wes during the Brooklyn SL game: he talked about the progress of Splitter and his return, but didn't sound totally convinced Splitter would be there. Wes said we are at 15 with the Jack signing, but they still want to do something to shore up the frontline. Not sounding like Splitter would be a trade chip if they decided to go that way.

2 easy words for me for the frontline: Kris Humphries

[ATL Boy]

Mark Bradley legitimately sounds like a hater right now.

With the way the market has developed, 4 years/$70 mil for Bazemore isn't an overpay. It's market value for a player of his caliber, who will be in his prime throughout the life of the contract (See: Crabbe, Allen).

Had we re-signed Horford and came back with the same squad, we would just move forward with a capped out squad as it ages and regresses, something new needed to be done.

I don't think Bud will be so stubborn with his pace and space scheme, now that Dwight is on board. He'll adapt to his personnel. We've done pace and space for the last couple years and the end result was two sweeps to Cleveland. While everyone looks to go small, we have potentially the best C in the east joining the squad. It's time to take advantage of height: something that's been done since basketball's Genesis.

And Millsap was going to opt out next year no matter what (barring an unforeseen circumstance), he'd be stupid not to with another cap space If Bradley really thinks that Horford leaving or staying has anything to do with that, then I don't know what to tell him.


Sent from my iPhone using RealGM Forums

[simon24]

The Hawks were juggling a lot of balls in those frantic moments before Horford bolted to Boston. They had already agreed to a...deal with Dwight Howard. They were working to re-sign Horford anyway, and arranging a trade that would jettison Paul Millsap -- their best player last season.

The Horford-Howard front line would keep Atlanta competitive, and dealing Millsap would net rebuilding assets -- young players and picks to plop atop the No. 12 pick they received from Utah in the Jeff Teague deal. They could rebuild without dropping from the postseason.

It was an interesting plan until it fell apart. Horford is gone, Millsap remains, and the trade assets he'd have fetched stay in Denver, Phoenix or someplace else.

They talked about Millsap trades with Phoenix, Denver, Toronto and Houston; the Nuggets were ready to flip a players-and-picks package headlined by Kenneth Faried, according to several sources familiar with the matter.

Thoughts?

Predictions?

Concerns?

I'm glad the Millsap trade/Horford trade didn't work out. Hawks would have been worse. Millsap is the better 4 to pair with Dwight.

Hawks should be a better team than last year. Dennis and Millsap will bring it. Korver and Thabo can train, not recovering from surgery. Baze and Hardaway should be better after spending a year at their new positions. Dwight will play with a chip on his shoulder.

My concern is Millsap. I can't see ATL paying him 35 mil a year after this year. I'd hope they know what they're doing. I'd hate to see Millsap in Boston too if the Hawks let him walk for nothing.

[Jamaaliver]

I'm glad the Millsap trade/Horford trade didn't work out. Hawks would have been worse. Millsap is the better 4 to pair with Dwight.

I agree that Millsap and Howard should be pretty good.

I think the issue arises that it may only be a one year pairing. Due to rising salary, ego, age...there's a pretty solid chance Paul is gone in Fall 2017. meaning we'll have to recast yet again at PF, and we'll have missed out on all the potential trade assets we could have gotten for Millsap.

...dealing Millsap would net rebuilding assets -- young players and picks to plop atop the No. 12 pick they received from Utah in the Jeff Teague deal.

It was an interesting plan until it fell apart. Millsap remains, and the trade assets he'd have fetched stay in Denver, Phoenix or someplace else. But Millsap now knows the Hawks tried to move him, and his trade value declines every day....

Millsap will surely opt out of his contract next summer. If he bolts, the Hawks would have a core of Dennis Schroder, Bazemore and Howard.

[simon24]

I'm glad the Millsap trade/Horford trade didn't work out. Hawks would have been worse. Millsap is the better 4 to pair with Dwight.

I agree that Millsap and Howard should be pretty good.

I think the issue arises that it may only be a one year pairing. Due to rising salary, ego, age...there's a pretty solid chance Paul is gone in Fall 2017. meaning we'll have to recast yet again at PF, and we'll have missed out on all the potential trade assets we could have gotten for Millsap.

...dealing Millsap would net rebuilding assets -- young players and picks to plop atop the No. 12 pick they received from Utah in the Jeff Teague deal.

It was an interesting plan until it fell apart. Millsap remains, and the trade assets he'd have fetched stay in Denver, Phoenix or someplace else. But Millsap now knows the Hawks tried to move him, and his trade value declines every day....

Millsap will surely opt out of his contract next summer. If he bolts, the Hawks would have a core of Dennis Schroder, Bazemore and Howard.

True. Millsap isn't worth a 35 mil a year max. I'm hoping they could be looking at comparable stretch 4s and make a move by the deadline.

[Geaux_Hawks]

I'm willing to bet that if Sap is still a top 20ish player like he was last year, we wouldn't mind giving him 35 for 2 years anyway. Especially with Howard being on the other side of 30.

I mean he is a strong 2 way player as is, and if we really were that concerned with Milsaps hitting the market next year, I think we would have trade Sap already, and made sure we could have gave Horford everything he wanted.

With that said though, I doubt Sap jeopardize our cap by asking for 35 million. A strong run this year could definitely negate the talks of needing 35 million to re-sign him.

[MaceCase]

As a FYI since I've seen no mention of it here, Koonin in his weekly radio segment on 92.9 back on July 8th debunked Lowe and others' reports that the Hawks shopped Millsap as pure speculation on their part and that the Hawks had intended to keep a frontcourt trio of Sap, Al and Dwight.

Damage control? Perhaps, but if you took Al's week late response to his family bashing Atlanta all over social media as gospel yet have misgivings over this then.....what can I tell ya?

#noleaks

[ATL Boy]

As a FYI since I've seen no mention of it here, Koonin in his weekly radio segment on 92.9 back on July 8th debunked Lowe and others' reports that the Hawks shopped Millsap as pure speculation on their part and that the Hawks had intended to keep a frontcourt trio of Sap, Al and Dwight.

Damage control? Perhaps, but if you took Al's week late response to his family bashing Atlanta all over social media as gospel yet have misgivings over this then.....what can I tell ya?

#noleaks

I listened to that too, and I don't believe a single word of it. He was indeed probably trying to do some damage control, it was a PR move to try and keep Paul happy: I don't think he would've liked knowing that he was being shopped around.


Sent from my iPhone using RealGM Forums