2017 Hawks Season PREVIEWS

[Jamaaliver]

Separate from the offseason reviews already floating around the blogosphere, we're now seeing pundits give their predictions of what to expect from our Hawks this season.


Bleacher Report:

Predictions

The 60-win squad from 2014-15 was the best unit in this franchise's modern history, and last year's 48-win bunch stood out as a dominant defensive group that could knock down enough jumpers to hang in there.

Though this version is still strong, it won't be nearly as threatening unless Howard experiences a career resurgence and Schroder validates Atlanta's decision to promote him.

Even as the Eastern Conference's lower half improves, the Hawks remain a tier above. They have too much talent, too much quality coaching and too much depth to miss out on the playoffs, though they'll struggle to decisively earn home-court advantage in the postseason's opening round this time.

Final Record: 45-37
Division Standing: 2nd
Playoff Berth: Yes
B/R League-Wide Power Rankings Prediction: No. 12

Basketball Insiders

STRENGTHS
Offense gets the headlines, but the Hawks will continue leading with their defense. Howard, in his prime, was one of the better defenders the league has seen [but], at this point in his career, he’s likely a downgrade from the departed Horford. But one area Howard excels where Horford doesn’t is providing elite rebounding. Expect the Hawks to remain an elite defensive unit in 2017.

WEAKNESSES
Atlanta’s depth at shooting guard is a bit concerning. A significant portion of the team’s decline from distance can be traced to veteran guard Kyle Korver’s struggles to find a consistent rhythm. Last season, the Hawks connected on just 35 percent of their attempts behind the arc...[and] the Hawks must start a succession plan for their starting shooting guard sooner rather than later.


The Burning Question
...the crew responsible for so much of the team’s success over the past decade are now all wearing different uniforms. This means the locker room culture will shift. The arrival of Howard, after some internal turmoil in Houston, is a dynamic to watch. The big question is can the Hawks continue their winning ways with new guys manning pivotal roles, previously reserved for the old guard? Only time will tell.

Predictions
The team’s playoff streak doesn’t appear to be in any serious jeopardy, but most are hesitant to consider the current unit title contenders.

Losing Al Horford and Jeff Teague won’t destroy the Hawks...this team has the talent to make some noise in the Eastern Conference, but I don’t think they took a significant step forward this offseason, which is what they needed to do to become real contenders, in my opinion.

[ATL Boy]

Might take a step back in the regular season (might) but this team is better made for the playoffs than the teams of years past. I loved Al Horford but he shriveled up come playoff time other than that one series against Washington. Watching Tristan Thompson steal his lunch money two straight years became unbearable.

Interior defense is what wins in the playoffs, and (provided he's healthy) Dwight Howard will be an upgrade in that category.

[Jamaaliver]

Kelly Dwyer and Ball Don't Lie over at Yahoo Sports put forth their predictions:

BDL's 2016-17 Season Previews: Atlanta Hawks
Kelly Dwyer’s Best Guess at a Record: 48-34, 3rd in the Eastern Conference.

The 2014-15 Atlanta Hawks were one of the great surprises in recent NBA history...the 2015-16 Hawks were a reminder that such seasons are hard to replicate.


Did the summer help at all?
...the Hawks probably didn’t get any better and yet seem to feature far more potential than they did in early June. [Dwight Howard] remains a very effective rebounder, grabbing 11.8 boards in just 32.1 minutes per game last season. It wouldn’t be surprising to see Howard get much better at [the defensive] end if only because he’ll have more help. Trading Teague represented a clean break...and a declaration of faith in the still only 23-year-old Schröder, Atlanta’s biggest X-factor.


It’s entirely possible that Howard could see his performance improve significantly without making the Hawks look any better.


Potential breakout stud:
It’s most definitely Schröder...he looks ready to prove himself as a capable NBA starter this season. He’s not the most efficient scorer, but Schröder has a knack for making plays and put up very promising numbers — 19.5 points and 7.8 assists per 36 minutes with a 15.5 PER is nothing to sneeze at.

The problems with Schröder: he struggles with decision-making and especially tempo control. Schröder still has to prove he knows how to run a team.



Best-case scenario:...the Hawks finish with a top-three seed, and they manage to get eliminated from the playoffs before having to face the Cavs again.

If everything falls apart:Howard doesn’t get any better, Schröder doesn’t thrive as a starter but does just enough to convince he’s worth a long-term deal, Millsap begins to age poorly, and Bazemore plateaus. The Hawks sneak into the playoffs, and the franchise gets locked into a different version of the sameness that plagued them last season.

[Jamaaliver]

Two of the more prominent writers at SB nation, Tom Ziller and Paul Flannery, put forth their Hawks Season preview:

The Hawks slipped considerably in the standings last season...

Given that, I understand the reset Atlanta pursued in the offseason -- signing Dwight Howard and flipping Jeff Teague for the pick that became Taurean Prince. Those two decisions — Howard in lieu of Horford, and Teague for a rookie — combined with retaining Kent Bazemore at a huge salary ... that's a weird offseason.


I can't imagine this was the plan: choose the younger, less polished point guard, but swap out the steady defensive mastermind center for a high-risk, high-reward eccentric version. If you choose Schroder and invest heavily in Bazemore, I feel like you balance that by making sure you keep your veteran leadership in place. By signing Dwight and losing Horford, you're putting a lot on Paul Millsap's shoulders.

Maybe Schroder unleashed will prove us wrong. Millsap's maybe the most underrated player (by fans) in the league. Bazemore is improving every year. And Howard, for all of his faults, still impacts the game in key areas.

All these factors make me think Atlanta is still a playoff team in the East.

If things go real poorly, Millsap has to be the most attractive trade target in the league [excepting perhaps Russell Westbrook or DeMarcus Cousins...]

The pace-and-space Hawks are dead. It was fun, but ultimately doomed. I get breaking up a core that topped out at 60 wins and zero against the Cavs in two playoff appearances.
What I don't get is the Howard move. In a vacuum, I still think Howard can contribute to a good team, but swapping Horford for Howard made sense in, like, 2011...I don't see this working.

I think they'll make [the playoffs] and I totally understand why they decided to shake things up...But this team isn't any closer and I don't think it will be as good as the one we've seen the last two years...So yeah, this is a transition year for the Hawks.


I would trade so many assets for Millsap. A dude like that could legitimately swing a playoff series or two. I don't care that he can get out of his deal after this season. If I'm a contender and I feel like my team is close enough, I take a mighty big swing on Sap.

[Jamaaliver]

CBS runs a series of NBA previews with a brief mention on each team:

We decided to tackle the big questions that will define 2016-17 for each of the league's 30 teams.



Atlanta Hawks
What should we expect from Dwight?

They replaced Al Horford with Dwight Howard...anyone who's paid attention to basketball over the last five years will call it a catastrophic downgrade. Not only did the Hawks sell Howard on signing, but they pitched him as a key focal point. None of this made sense given how Mike Budenholzer has coached the team with ball movement, 5-out play and smart play built around skill and not athleticism. Yet here we are, as Budenholzer was the one leading the charge for Howard.

Can Dwight step in and be anything close to the guy he was back in 2011? Is he really more mature, or will he always be the goofball who gets on teammates' nerves? There are other questions, like why they replaced long-time, productive starter Jeff Teague with Dennis Schröder, who is talented but has shown no ability to run an offense, but really, it all comes down to Howard. If he makes it look like signing him was a coup, the Hawks will once again best expectations as they have the past two seasons. -- Matt Moore

Here

Here is a division-by-division look at the most notable strength and weakness for each of the 30 NBA teams:



Atlanta Hawks

Strength: They're going to be good defensively. You have to have confidence in Mike Budenholzer to get the best from Dwight Howard on that end, and he doesn't have to be peak Dwight Howard for their defense to be terrific. Paul Millsap's versatility, Kent Bazemore's athleticism and doggedness, even Dennis Schröder's ability to pester will all help here. The Hawks were the best defense in the league after the All-Star break last year. Expect them to once again be a tough team to score against.

Weakness: Offensive fluidity. This is the first time Schröder will be running the team full-time. Schröder has shown a great ability to make one-on-one plays, but has struggled to really make sure things are clicking. Al Horford was great at making the right play at the right time, but he's of course gone. Howard is a great screener, but not a playmaker. So somewhere in here, they have to figure out a lot on how to play together, with no one to really help orchestrate it. -- Matt Moore

Here

Here is a division-by-division look at the biggest X-factor for each NBA team heading into the season...



Atlanta Hawks
Chemistry after the departures of Horford and Teague

The Hawks in their old variation had incredible chemistry. But two of those guys are gone, and their replacements (Dwight Howard and Dennis Schröder) are not known for their willingness and ability to operate in a free-flowing system.

Schröder is dogged, but he's also young and struggles with running an offense. Howard, on the other end, has rarely expressed his ability to pass effectively.

What happens if it turns into more one-on-one play? On the other hand, if the system lifts those guys up, with their individual athleticism and abilities, could it unlock something just as good or better than the previous version?

The Hawks have been great with what they had, but they have new guys now. They need to come together to be greater than the sum of their parts because that's what has brought them so much success through the years. -- Matt Moore

Here

[jayu70]

Howard Excited for Fresh Start in Atlanta

Howard echoed those statements to reporters prior to a 105-98 win over the Magic on Sunday. Howard was held out of the game for rest, but offered high praise for his new team. He called Budenholzer an unbelievable human being and said the Hawks are an organization that really cares about what’s best for their players.

“I really couldn’t be happier with how Dwight has integrated himself into our program – his willingness to work [and] his willingness to be open to coaching,” Budenholzer said. “He’s added a lot of positive energy and he’s got a big personality that I think our team has welcomed. It just feels like it’s a great opportunity for us and him. We’re just looking forward to growing together.”

http://www.basketballinsiders.com/nba-am-howard-excited-for-fresh-start-with-hawks/

[Jamaaliver]

USA Today offers up their own preview of what to expect from our boys:

USA TODAY'S projection: 48-34

Atlanta will be right back in the mix, earning its 10th consecutive appearance in the postseason.

While [Horford] is the better all-around player at this stage, Howard could be a pleasant surprise for his hometown Hawks...Dennis Schroder has the keys to the offense as he enters his fourth NBA season with 16 starts under his belt.

...a large portion of the Hawks’ future rests on Howard’s shoulders. He’s not the perennial All-NBA center that he once was, but he's still one of the most gifted big men in the league.

Prince and Bembry are both NBA-ready players with the necessary tools to earn playing time right away. Prince could thrive in a role similar to the one DeMarre Carroll had two seasons ago, while Bembry’s combination of passing, athleticism and basketball IQ should fit right in with coach Mike Budenholzer’s system.


PROJECTED STARTING LINEUP
(Statistics from 2015-16 season)

•Dennis Schroder - Points: 11.0, assists: 4.4, rebounds: 2.6, steals: 0.9, field goal percentage: 42.1%
•Kyle Korver - Points: 9.2, rebounds: 3.3, assists: 2.1, steals: 0.8, field goal percentage: 43.5%
•Kent Bazemore - Points: 11.6, rebounds: 5.1, assists: 2.3, steals: 1.3, field goal percentage: 44.1%
•Paul Millsap - Points: 17.1, rebounds: 9.0, assists: 3.3, blocks: 1.7, field goal percentage: 47.0%
•Dwight Howard (with Houston) - Points: 13.7, rebounds: 11.8, assists: 1.4, blocks: 1.6, field goal percentage: 62.0%

Here

[Jamaaliver]

USA Today predicts we win the division:

Yes the Atlanta Hawks are depending on Dwight Howard to revert back to his younger days — a return to Superman, if you will. But this is an unselfish team that has good ball movement and multiple scoring options. Mike Budenholzer is a good coach, coming from the Spurs organization, who has the team on the same page. Two years ago they had the best record in the East and made it to the conference finals. We look for them to win this division pretty handily.

Here

[Robo_Claw]

Might take a step back in the regular season (might) but this team is better made for the playoffs than the teams of years past. I loved Al Horford but he shriveled up come playoff time other than that one series against Washington. Watching Tristan Thompson steal his lunch money two straight years became unbearable.

Interior defense is what wins in the playoffs, and (provided he's healthy) Dwight Howard will be an upgrade in that category.

And we might even get a couple of offensive rebounds for once!

[Jamaaliver]

ONE WRITER at Sports Illustrated.com sees us as potentially being one of the biggest flops of the season:

Jeremy Woo: Hawks. As much as I respect what the Hawks have built, this feels like an obvious square-peg/round-hole situation with Dwight Howard. Atlanta under Budenholzer has consistently showcased strong passers all over the floor and relied on playing inside-out thanks to the skill sets of Paul Millsap and the departed Al Horford. Going on age 31, Howard is neither/nor, still insisting upon catching the ball on the block to mixed results. He’s not a stud in pick-and-roll, which is where new starter Dennis Schröder thrives. I love Schröder more than most, but if those transitions aren’t smooth, these guys could be staring down .500 with Millsap set to hit free agency. It’s a pivotal season.

Here


An anonymous scout's take on our Hawks this year. (A staple of SI's NBA Preview Coverage):

Atlanta Hawks

I can’t imagine Mike Budenholzer changing the way he plays...swinging the ball, pushing it, getting a lot of possessions, unselfishness. But Dwight Howard wants to plant himself in the post. He’s not a threat like Al Horford was from the perimeter, but he’s going to want touches. Atlanta only on occasion threw the ball into the post. I don’t know how well it’s going to work. . . . What they gave up trading Jeff Teague is ball movement. Dennis Schroder is more of a pounder; the ball’s going to be in his hands and he’s going to be looking for his own...[Korver] will be spotting up somewhere and Schroder won’t find him.
 
Kyle Korver is 35. I see him probably taking another half-step back like he did last season. With Korver’s age, Tim Hardaway Jr. should have a chance to prove himself. . . . When I watched Kent Bazemore play, I fell in love with him. He’s improved his three-point shooting, he’s athletic and he’s really good defensively. I mean real good. He can lock you down with his length and quickness. . . . Tiago Splitter is a big body who can make an open shot, but he struggles to guard the quicker fives. Horford was really good at that—getting out to the pick-and-pops, rotations—and it’s where both Splitter and Howard will struggle. . . . When they have to go to the bench, it’s a weakness."

Here

[Jamaaliver]

C-Viv at AJC has rolled out a number of articles previewing the new look Hawks:

Hawks adjusting to a new last line of defense in Howard


The Hawks’ new starting center is a difference maker as a rim protector should an opponent break down their defense. At 6-foot-11 and playing a more traditional role in the middle, Howard has already shown his ability to affect shots and pile up blocks.

The three-time NBA Defensive Player of the Year has a career average of 2.1 blocks per game. He averaged 1.6 blocks last season with the Rockets. The Hawks other defenders are still learning to play with Howard behind them. It’s a work in progress.

Budenholzer has not been entirely happy with the Hawks’ defensive play this preseason. He said they have been too many fouls. There are subtle differences in the Hawks’ system depending on the on-court players, Budenholzer said. Learning to play with Howard as the last line of defense will take some time.

Here

Pressure? Hawks, Schroder say no undue burden on new point guard

Dennis Schroder insists nothing will change now that he is the Hawks starting point guard. The Hawks are likely to experience growing pains with the 23-year old in his fourth NBA season at the helm. Schroder’s search for consistency will be key to the team’s success.

Schroder’s playing time has increased in each of this three seasons since selected in the first round (No. 17) of the 2013 NBA Draft. The writing was on the wall that the Hawks were ready to move on from Teague. Teague requested and was granted a trade.

Hawks coach Mike Budenholzer called the team’s commitment to Schroder a “natural evolvement” and the “next logical step.”

The potential of Schroder is why expectations are so high, according to Kyle Korver, who once again has his locker next to Schroder.

Here

[Jamaaliver]

The Charlotte Observer predicts a #4 seed in the playoffs once we get acclimated to our new starting five:

Atlanta Hawks: The Hawks took a hit when Horford chose not to re-sign, but Paul Millsap still has All-Star credentials and Dennis Schroder is a rapidly improving point guard. Keep an eye on rookie forward Taurean Prince.


Read more here: http://www.charlotteobserver.com/sports/nba/charlotte-hornets/article109912212.html#storylink=cpy

Miami Herald predicts a decline:

Atlanta: Should take a step back from 48 wins after losing Horford and Teague. Hawks must hope for close to the vintage version of Dwight Howard, who joins a starting lineup of Dennis Schroder (his development made Teague expendable), Kyle Korver, Kent Bazemore and Paul Millsap.

Read more here: http://www.miamiherald.com/sports/spt-columns-blogs/barry-jackson/article110113837.html#storylink=cpy

[Jamaaliver]

A surprising admission from Paul Millsap prior to the season opener:

I think we want to be better, at a better place, clicking on all cylinders right now. We’re not. We still have work to do. We’ll continue to build and build.

Here


Interesting.

[Jamaaliver]

Prediction from FiveThirtyeight.com has us winning only 38 games and missing out on the playoffs. Here
These guys have been pretty Hit and Miss for us in the past.





Zach Lowe sees us as a 3rd tier team and likely playoff qualifier:

Atlanta Hawks
I've written and talked a lot about these guys already. We know the questions, and Tiago Splitter is already injured. But Atlanta has top-level talent, and a coach, Mike Budenholzer, who maximizes his roster. One of the rookies will skip a grade at the Budenholzer University For Project Wings, and the Hawks are high on Malcolm Delaney as Dennis Schroder's backup.

My gut says one of [Detroit, Charlotte or Atlanta] misses the playoffs. I just can't decide which one, so for now, I have them all getting in.

Here