2024 Prospect Spotlight: Ryan Dunn

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Ryan Dunn is the Virginia Cavaliers’ top prospect, ranking 17th on our board. One thing is clear—Dunn is an elite defensive prospect. I don’t say that frivolously or without considering my words. The 6’8” sophomore is genuinely special. He posted a BLK% of 10.5 and a STL% of 3.1, which is something I don’t recall ever seeing before. He’s not one of those dudes who just gambles a lot, either. He can lock down the ball. He’s got a powerful frame, smooth feet, and exceptional balance. His ground coverage and rotations are out of this world. It’s like watching someone play a video game with unlimited turbo turned on and stamina turned off. The guy can go full speed in one direction, then immediately start going in a different direction without any lag time. Per Synergy, opponents have a 34.7 eFG% when being guard by Dunn. It’s obscene.

However, the offense…isn’t great. The good news is that his feel helps him know when to cut. His tools and strength help him finish effectively at the rim against anyone. He’s a potent straight-line driver, and he actually makes some nice dump-off passes when rim protectors come his way. That said, Dunn can’t shoot right now, and he doesn’t like to do it. He passed up a lot of open looks and missed a hefty majority of the ones he took, going 20.6% from deep on one attempt per game. The free throws aren’t an encouraging indicator, as Dunn went 53.3% there, too.

Dunn can be tough to assess. The offense is a huge problem, but the defense is good that it might not totally matter. If there is a way that a team can surround him with shooters and park him in the dunker spot, everything will be a lot easier for him. Lining him up as a small ball five is also a little precarious, as him guarding a five is less enticing in many situations. The bottom line is, someone this good at one side of the ball should warrant serious consideration. This may be Dunn’s final chance to show that he’s got some offensive juice in a real game setting before he goes pro.

No Ceilings

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Unreal

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[Jamaaliver]

Ryan Dunn | 6-8 wing | 21 years old | Virginia

Dunn is all about defense. The Naismith committee not even having him as a semifinalist for National Defensive Player of the Year is the most egregious award decision in college basketball in the last five years or so — and there have been many contenders.

Dunn can do everything a team asks of him on defense and more. He can guard all five college positions and should be able to check one through four in the NBA. He is an elite defensive playmaker who averaged 1.3 steals and 2.4 blocks per game. He’s always available as a rim protector coming from the opposite side, and he can execute any ball-screen coverage.

The issue for Dunn is on offense. He plays hard, crashes the offensive glass and is a sharp cutter, but his jumper has been rough throughout his two years at Virginia. By the end of the regular season, Dunn stopped shooting 3s entirely and seemed to lose confidence in general. In his final 11 regular-season games, he scored just 51 points over 297 minutes played, shooting just 14 percent from 3 and a ghastly 31 percent on free throws.

Defensively, Dunn is as good as New Orleans Pelicans ace wing Herb Jones was when he entered the NBA in 2021, but he’s nowhere near as polished as Jones on offense. Teams are all over the map on him right now. I’ve heard projections ranging from right outside of the lottery to the end of the first round, depending on how workouts go.

The Athletic

[Jamaaliver]

Rockets playing Amen Thompson at Center. I foresee NBA teams needing to play Ryan Dunn very similarly. Surrounding him with 4 shooters and putting him in the dunkers spot to prevent teams from ignoring him in halfcourt situations.

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Buying his offensive growth is key.
Second round?

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[Jamaaliver]

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Buying his offensive growth is key.

Second round?

He's projected by most so called prognosticators to go in the 1st round.

His defense is that good.

I have seen enough one dimensional defenders come into the league.
Most bounce from team to team because they are unplayable in the playoffs.

I'd rather draft someone with actual ball skills.