Hawks Offseason Thread -- Summer 2024

[Jamaaliver]

Hawks have got some work to do...

State of the roster: There is a famous quote often misattributed to Albert Einstein: "Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results." That would apply to the Hawks if general manager Landry Fields elects to bring back the same roster after Atlanta missed the playoffs for the first time since 2020. The Hawks can point to injuries (seventh-most missed games) to explain why the roster won five fewer games than last season, but they were 24-32 even before Trae Young's torn ligament in his left hand in late February, but Fields and the ownership group elected to keep this group together at the deadline.


"You don't ever want to get caught up in this term called 'resulting,' " Fields said right after the deadline. "And for us, a lot of times you look at results, and that's where the judgment comes in. From our standpoint, development is a key feature of who we are and we are watching players continuously grow. It may not completely cause the results today that we want, but we also know that those results are coming."

The results, however, are regressing. The Hawks are 46-56 since Quin Snyder took over last February. The $67 million backcourt of Young and Dejounte Murray continues to struggle playing together. Starting in 2025, Atlanta has no control over its first-round pick for the next three years. And the Hawks will be over the luxury tax next season if the roster stays intact. Paying the tax for a play-in team should be a nonstarter for ownership. The positive is that Atlanta is in a position to retool the roster, not rebuild completely if the objective is to move Murray or even Young. Atlanta has a young core of players in Bey, Onyeka Okongwu, AJ Griffin, Kobe Bufkin and Jalen Johnson. The Hawks will also add a pick in the lottery and another first if the Kings reach the first-round.

Offseason finances: The Hawks avoided the luxury tax this season, electing to trade starter John Collins last offseason in a salary dump move. This summer, Atlanta once again is pressed not only against the $171 million tax threshold but also the $178.7 million first apron. Including both first-round picks (if the Kings' pick conveys), Atlanta has $171 million in salary. Barring a trade, the Hawks will exceed the first apron they re-sign Bey, who tore his left ACL in March. Atlanta will likely tender him a one-year, $8.4 million qualifying offer by June 29, making him a restricted free agent. Atlanta does have some flexibility with the non-guaranteed contracts of Mathews and Bruno Fernando. Atlanta has until June 29 to exercise Mathews' $2.2 million team option and to guarantee Fernando's $2.7 million contract. Because of their finances, the Hawks will only have the veterans minimum exception available to use in free agency. They have a large $23 million trade exception that expires July 7.

Top front office priority: Fields was honest in February when asked about Murray and Young playing together.

"The sample size is getting larger and larger and larger and assuming you're looking at specific lineups, and defensive and offensive ratings, which can always be debated as well," he told reporters. "I can't lie to you, the numbers speak to themselves on that."

Per Cleaning the Glass, Atlanta was outscored by 6.0 per 100 possessions this season when both players were on the court together. The Hawks had a 120.7 defensive efficiency rating in their shared minutes, fifth worst among more than 225 duos to play 1,000 minutes together. The most-used lineup of Young, Murray, Bey, Johnson and Clint Capela had a net rating of minus-15.3. When both Young and Murray were off the court, Atlanta had a defensive efficiency that would have ranked second. The Hawks went 12-11 and ranked 15th in offensive and 18th in defensive efficiency in the games Young missed with his ligament injury. Murray is entering Year 1 of a four-year, $120 million extension. His $24.8 million cap hit is $20 million less than a max player. Murray had 11 games with 20 points and 10 assists, all with Young out of the lineup. Young has two years left on his contract ($43 million and $46 million) and can become a free agent in 2026.

Extension candidate to watch: The Hawks have up until Oct. 21 to extend Johnson. The forward averaged career highs in points (16.1) and 3-point percentage (35.3%). Overall, Johnson has increased his scoring average from 5.6 last season to 16.1 this season. That is the second-largest increase among players to play at least 50 games in both seasons, trailing Cam Thomas. Johnson ranked in the bottom-10 in field goal percentage on all jumpers last season but saw an increase this year, going from 29% to 39%. Since Fields joined the front office in October 2020, Atlanta has signed a player to a rookie extension in each of the past three offseasons (Young, Kevin Huerter, De'Andre Hunter and Okongwu). Young is eligible to sign a three-year, $157 million extension up until Oct. 21.

Other extension candidates: Capela, Mathews and Fernando (as of Oct. 2)

Team needs: Perimeter defenders and rim protection. The Hawks ranked 17th in 3-point percentage allowed and 25th in points in the paint allowed.

Future draft assets: The June draft is the last time that Atlanta has control over its own first-round pick until 2028. The Hawks will send their 2025 and 2027 picks to the Spurs as part of the trade that brought Murray to Atlanta in 2022. San Antonio also has the right to swap firsts in 2026. The first allowable year the Hawks can trade a first is in 2029. Atlanta has six second-round picks available.

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[Jamaaliver]

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[HMFFL]

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We must capitalize on our draft picks in a big way. I'd like to do BPA but also not have to wait years for our first round pick to make an impact.



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[jayu70]

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[jayu70]

This the Landry year.....Big decisions to make that will determine the direction of the team thru 2028 when we have control of our own future picks.

[Geaux_Hawks]

This the Landry year.....Big decisions to make that will determine the direction of the team thru 2028 when we have control of our own future picks.

As everyone knows, the backcourt situation needs to be addressed asap, and depending on what he does there, will determine whether it's even worth watching anything else(including the team itself).

[CP War Hawks]

Hawks were able to showcase DJM the final month and sets up for more decent offers since the deadline. I expect serious offers from Pels, Jazz, and possibly Cavs depending on what happens with Mitchell with them.

[jayu70]

I'm seeing a lot of noise about blowing it up and rebuilding.....

THAT'S A NO FOR ME!

We need to get past the 'getting picks back from SAS." It's a pipe dream. As long as we keep that the focus we'll never move past it.

We took a chance on DJ and if it's not working, sometimes it just doesn't- deal with that portion of it and move on. (Dallas took a chance on KP it didn't work, they moved on, it happens).

All this would do is give Ressler more time and excuses to not spend to put a real quality product on the court. We have a $23 mil TPE and a $12 mil MLE waiting to don a hawks jersey. Why make it easy?

Anybody thinks Quin wants a total rebuild? 

Tearing it down is easy. Building it back up is the hard part. This is where we are....the HARD PART of our last rebuild. DO THE WORK!! 

It requires a real commitment (not just lip service) from ownership, a real singular plan with proper execution from the front office and a buy in from the coach.  There's no Easy Button.

GET TO WORK!

 

[jayu70]

Draft Lottery is May 12th.
Hawks can fall as low as 12th.
13% chance to move into the top 4.

[Jamaaliver]

From Shams on some telecast...

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[jayu70]

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[Jamaaliver]

Now that the Kings pick won't convey this summer, it actually becomes a more attractive trade piece.

The protections lessen in both 2025 and then 2026 before converting to 2nd round picks...

I suspect the Hawks will try move Okongwu, Kobe and that SAC draft pick in trade for a higher caliber veteran player.

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[Jamaaliver]

We'll see, won't we.

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[jayu70]

This was an insightful listen.

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[Jamaaliver]

What’s next for the Hawks?



After a year of front-office paralysis where Murray trades (and others) were courted but never completed, the attention this offseason will likely turn to Young’s future.

The logic is simple: Atlanta’s guards don’t fit together, despite the multiple unprotected picks the Hawks sent out to get Murray to join forces with Young, and if they had an offer they liked for Murray they would have taken it by now. Look for Lakers rumors, especially, to heat up if L.A. can’t get past its first-round series against Denver. The other thing Atlanta can’t do is tank, however, because of those same picks they gave the San Antonio Spurs in the Murray deal.

The Hawks have other moves to ponder this offseason as well.

• Can they afford to keep paying both Capela and Okongwu, now that Okongwu is starting a four-year, $63 million extension?
• Is there enough money to bring back Bey, a restricted free agent they acquired at the 2023 trade deadline?
• And can they nail the draft, one where they are likely to pick 10th and could also land a pick at 15th if Sacramento wins its play-in game with New Orleans on Friday?

Jalen Johnson, who had a breakout year that was the best story of an otherwise forgettable season, is likely due an extension ahead of his 2025 free agency, and the Hawks will also have to find more ways to get 2023 first-rounder Kobe Bufkin into the mix.

Hanging over this is an inexperienced, gun-shy front office and ownership that has been unwilling to pay into the luxury tax. The Hawks enter the summer an estimated $5 million from that line, depending on where their draft pick falls and if another one is coming from the Kings, and will have some hard decisions to make.

The Athletic

[Jamaaliver]

If we're looking for a place to simply salary dump the expiring contract of Clint Capela, Philadelphia feels like a perfect option.
Embiid is injury prone, misses a ton of games every year + they need a backup just for the minutes he's healthy and resting on the bench.

If we offer CC up for a future, protected 2nd rounder that will never convey, I suspect 76ers would jump at the opportunity. Capela would become the single best backup Center in the NBA.

This clears up our salary crunch and prevents us from having to send another young, more valuable player away for no return (i.e. Huerter and Collins).

Embiid returns, but Sixers can't rebound

Philadelphia will last in these playoffs only as long as Embiid is on the court. Just look at Game 1, when Philadelphia outscored New York by 14 when Embiid was on the court and was outscored by 21 in the 11 minutes Embiid was on the bench -- a recurring problem from prior Sixers playoff runs.

However, that doesn't mean the Sixers were perfect when Embiid was out there. Coming into the series, a key battleground was going to be New York's offensive rebounding. The Knicks are the NBA's best offensive rebounding team; the 76ers were a bottom-10 defensive rebounding team. And while that is partly because of Embiid's injuries, he also hasn't aggressively attacked the glass since he has returned. Meanwhile, Mitchell Robinson and the Knicks relentlessly hit the offensive boards.

As the series moves forward, both variables -- Embiid's availability and New York's success on the offensive glass -- will likely tell the tale of how this slugfest will play out.

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[tbhawksfan1]

I was so hopeful that NCAA champ Hunter was a great pick, but I"m ready to pull the plug. Capela needs to become an over paid back up and Murray needs to be traded to a PG needy team that can give us a solid, tall and athletic SG that can shoot

Draft a center to develpop as starter asap

If OO is a no go at the 4 then he needs to go too, but not as a dump. He has talent, just not a fit with what we have

[tbhawksfan1]

If Fili is the C pick, it could be that OO could fit with him:

Trae / Big SG / JJ / OO / Fili

[tbhawksfan1]

I think that this is also the offseason to move Bog. I love him but he can bring back a nice young player to a win now team