How to Not Blow a FIrst Round Pick?

Jammer · Post #1 » by **Jammer** » Wed Apr 23, 2014 9:27 am

I present some simple (basic) guidelines for First Round Drafting. Do this, and you pretty much have an NBA player versus a "bust."

Point Guards
Quarterbacked, "lead", a team Before they were drafted. Only acceptable answer is an unequivocal "YES."
Were able to dependably dribble thru a press or double team, BEFORE they were drafted
Able to repeatedly penetrate into the lane and for a "good shot" or make a "good pass"
Averaged at least 5 assists per game in college
Shoots at least 70% from the free throw line

Players who meet this definition:

Shooting Guards
Able to shoot 80% from the free throw line and 35% from 3 point territory BEFORE they were drafted
Have the quickness to defend the position
At least 6' 3" in true height
Has a nose for the ball, meaning they rebound despite being a guard. 3 rpg at least

Players who meet this definition: Gary Harris, James Anderson. Players who don't: J.R. Giddens

Centers
Dominant, Double Digit Rebounder in college.
Fab Melo didn't rebound in college, so how could he as a pro?

Small Forwards
Best Athlete on Team
Rebounds for his position (4.5 per game in college minimum)
At least a 35% three point shooting average
78% Free Throw percentage minimum
Averaged at least 2.5 apg in college

Golabki · Post #2 » by **Golabki** » Wed Apr 23, 2014 2:44 pm

Jammer wrote:I present some simple (basic) guidelines for First Round Drafting. Do this, and you pretty much have an NBA player versus a "bust."

Point Guards
Quarterbacked, "lead", a team Before they were drafted. Only acceptable answer is an unequivocal "YES."
Were able to dependably dribble thru a press or double team, BEFORE they were drafted
Able to repeatedly penetrate into the lane and for a "good shot" or make a "good pass"
Averaged at least 5 assists per game in college
Shoots at least 70% from the free throw line

Players who meet this definition:

Shooting Guards
Able to shoot 80% from the free throw line and 35% from 3 point territory BEFORE they were drafted
Have the quickness to defend the position
At least 6' 3" in true height
Has a nose for the ball, meaning they rebound despite being a guard. 3 rpg at least

Players who meet this definition: Gary Harris, James Anderson. Players who don't: J.R. Giddens

Centers
Dominant, Double Digit Rebounder in college.
Fab Melo didn't rebound in college, so how could he as a pro?

Small Forwards
Best Athlete on Team
Rebounds for his position (4.5 per game in college minimum)
At least a 35% three point shooting average
78% Free Throw percentage minimum
Averaged at least 2.5 apg in college

so no Westbrook or wade or rondo...?

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eris · Post #3 » by **eris** » Wed Apr 23, 2014 10:04 pm

He didn't say that these were the only players that succeed, he just said these players won't be busts. Taking a chance on a player who doesn't meet these criteria can get you a surprisingly good player if they "develop" once you have them (Rondo, Westbrook and Wade all fit), but you run the risk of getting somebody who doesn't "develop" and tanks out (Giddens and Fab Melo fit too).

I'd say you do NOT reach if you're in the top 6, you might reach at 7 to 12, you probably have to reach if you're from 13 to 24, and you absolutely do have to reach if you're below that. The strength and depth of a draft will move those tiers around a little, but not a lot.

brackdan70 · Post #4 » by **brackdan70** » Sat Apr 26, 2014 2:15 am

Another good strategy is think "what would Cleveland do?" and then do something else..

I do like those general parameters though for a "safe" pick

LloydFree · Post #5 » by **LloydFree** » Sat Apr 26, 2014 2:22 am

Russell Westbrook never quarterbacked a team in college. J'rue Holiday never quarterbacked a team in college.

24istheLAW · Post #6 » by **24istheLAW** » Sat Apr 26, 2014 3:45 am

The goal isn't to not finish last, its to finish first.

Likewise, the goal isn't to "not blow" the pick. The goal is to hit a home run with the pick.

Post #7 » by **darrendaye** » Sun Apr 27, 2014 12:34 am

Jammer wrote:I present some simple (basic) guidelines for First Round Drafting. Do this, and you pretty much have an NBA player versus a "bust."

Shooting Guards
Able to shoot 80% from the free throw line and 35% from 3 point territory BEFORE they were drafted
Have the quickness to defend the position
At least 6' 3" in true height
Has a nose for the ball, meaning they rebound despite being a guard. 3 rpg at least

Players who meet this definition: Gary Harris, James Anderson. Players who don't: J.R. Giddens

Spencer Dinwiddie also fits this profile.

SirTankalot · Post #8 » by **SirTankalot** » Sun Apr 27, 2014 2:41 am

So don't take Andrew Wiggins, Jabari Parker or Joel Embiid? Got it.

Jammer · Post #9 » by **Jammer** » Sun Apr 27, 2014 1:43 pm

SirTankalot wrote:So don't take Andrew Wiggins, Jabari Parker or Joel Embiid? Got it.

Embid's an anomaly because he gets his 8.3 rpg in only 23 minutes, which is 13 rebounds per 36 minutes.

So, the real question is why is Embid only able to play 23 mpg. Fouls. So, there are some issues there.
But his rebounding rate is high enough, but his court time is low for a Top 3 pick. Can't think of any other potential #1 picks who only played 23 per game in college.

I'm already on record as liking Gary Harris and James Young as the two most NBA ready players.

Unfortunately now that Harris has signed with CAA (Carmello Anthony and Chris Paul's agency), I think he is less likely to be a candidate for Boston's # 5 pick. I don't think James Young has selected an agent yet, so I'm still hopeful on nabbing Young at #5.