NBA 2015 Draft Discussion Thread

ryaningf · Post #1841 » by **ryaningf** » Fri Apr 24, 2015 3:21 pm

Banks2Pierce wrote:I'm weirded out with trading up for WCS based on his Defensive rebounding and questionable love of the game. For him to work, you need an exact replica of Kevin Love's shooting and rebounding.

Right. WCS would be nice at 16 but trading up for him, losing additional assets for him, just doesn't make much sense, he's a one-dimensional, complimentary player with an overall impact of a player like KO...on some nights, your most important player, on other night you don't play him.

His own grandma wonders if he loves the game. He's a middling rebounder, would struggle initially doing the dirty work that good teams need from bigs (like setting picks, delivering hard fouls, clogging the middle, etc...), and is a complete zero on offense. Being able to switch onto a guard is nice, but there's more to being big man in the NBA than having the ability to switch onto a guard (in fact, being able to switch onto a guard isn't even a necessary condition of being a big man).

While there are guys I'd consider moving additional assets to acquire, WCS is not one of them. We got too many holes to target a role player. We need stars, we need go-to guys, we need size and rebounding. My prediction is that some team in the lottery takes him and gets disappointed quickly when they figure out he's useless on offense and can't do basic big man things. Like Tyson Chandler, he's going to bounce around a bit and not really hit his stride until ages 26-29.

You know what really sours me on WCS, though? That he doesn't rebound like a maniac. He plays defense like a maniac when he's locked in. If he could develop that kind of obsessiveness about rebounding then I'd be in DDB's boat. Then he'd be like Ben Wallace or Dennis Rodman--a perennial DPOY candidate. Rebounding = heart and love of the game for me. The guys that do it are smart, hard-working, and they love the game. Rebounding translates, rebounding like defense is always on (unlike shooting), rebounding is about effort and intelligence and the guys that do it tend to win.

gocelts · Post #1842 » by **gocelts** » Fri Apr 24, 2015 3:29 pm

I don't know....2 #1 draft picks AND Sully or Kelly...to move up to 9 - 10 that still has that "rookie risk factor" ? Not that that's not a fair/realistic offer, but I don't think that's Danny's style. That's basically 3 first rounders...for an unproven player. I don't think he did all this asset collecting to get WCS.

I think he WOULD make an offer like that for a proven player. The offer Danny would throw out there to take WCS would be something like Zeller & #15 for say 10. Like with IT, a serviceable expiring player like Thornton, and a pick to make it worth their while for Thomas. He's only going to make deals where he feels like he wins.

I do like WCS though...but I actually still like Portis better.

humblebum · Post #1843 » by **humblebum** » Fri Apr 24, 2015 3:45 pm

ryaningf wrote:
Banks2Pierce wrote:I'm weirded out with trading up for WCS based on his Defensive rebounding and questionable love of the game. For him to work, you need an exact replica of Kevin Love's shooting and rebounding.

Right. WCS would be nice at 16 but trading up for him, losing additional assets for him, just doesn't make much sense, he's a one-dimensional, complimentary player with an overall impact of a player like KO...on some nights, your most important player, on other night you don't play him.

His own grandma wonders if he loves the game. He's a middling rebounder, would struggle initially doing the dirty work that good teams need from bigs (like setting picks, delivering hard fouls, clogging the middle, etc...), and is a complete zero on offense. Being able to switch onto a guard is nice, but there's more to being big man in the NBA than having the ability to switch onto a guard (in fact, being able to switch onto a guard isn't even a necessary condition of being a big man).

While there are guys I'd consider moving additional assets to acquire, WCS is not one of them. We got too many holes to target a role player. We need stars, we need go-to guys, we need size and rebounding. My prediction is that some team in the lottery takes him and gets disappointed quickly when they figure out he's useless on offense and can't do basic big man things. Like Tyson Chandler, he's going to bounce around a bit and not really hit his stride until ages 26-29.

You know what really sours me on WCS, though? That he doesn't rebound like a maniac. He plays defense like a maniac when he's locked in. If he could develop that kind of obsessiveness about rebounding then I'd be in DDB's boat. Then he'd be like Ben Wallace or Dennis Rodman--a perennial DPOY candidate. Rebounding = heart and love of the game for me. The guys that do it are smart, hard-working, and they love the game. Rebounding translates, rebounding like defense is always on (unlike shooting), rebounding is about effort and intelligence and the guys that do it tend to win.

While I agree with pretty much everything here I still think WCS will be on the short list of Celtics targets in the draft.

This team has a bunch of needs, as the series against Cleveland is proving, one of which is length and an alley pop threat. So no, I dont pay a premium for a rookie like WCS.

The Celtics need a versatile defender but I believe they need it in that 6'8" 6'9" mold of a long rangy forward with ball skills, Leonard and Draymond being good examples of the type of athlete I'm thinking of.

The "big man" isn't going to be cheap but I dont think that guy is Zeller. I doubt its WCS and would take it as a bad sign if he drops in the draft.

Post #1844 » by **165bows** » Fri Apr 24, 2015 3:53 pm

@DraftExpress: Guillermo Hernangomez (1994) from @cdbsevilla will declare for the Draft. Represented by agent @GuiBermejo in Spain. Potential 1st rounder.

@DraftExpress: 7 guys in ACB history posted a PER of 20 at age 20 or prior: Stanley Roberts, Splitter, R. Fernandez, Rubio, Mirotic, Scola, W. Hernangomez

CelticFaninLBC · Post #1845 » by **CelticFaninLBC** » Fri Apr 24, 2015 3:54 pm

ddb wrote:
jfs1000d wrote:Too much Willie Cauley-Stein love.

I'm not trading 16, 33 and Sully or KO for WCS. That's insane.

I like him, he's useful, but he doesn't move the needle as a team at all. WCS is also not big. He's long, athletic and rangy, but how will he handle size and strength in NBA.

This is nuts. The guy can't score, at all, and is right now a shotblocker and questionable rebounder. If he's there at 16, absolutely, if we can sacrifice one of our seconds to go up a couple of spots --sure.

But, I am not interested in non-skill players on the floor. I would rather have a big like Mozgov. Big as in BIG. Not just long and athletic.

I saw Kentuckly play a bunch. No way. He won't have the same athletic advanatge he has in college. All the athletes are great.

WCS has an off the charts combination of size/footwork/length/natural defensive instincts. He also runs the floor as well as anyone I've ever seen at that size. If he played this season at Xavier and was a featured guy he would be in the running for the #1 pick. My only concern is GM's won't be so stupid this time around and someone will draft him way before the Celtics get an opportunity to move up.
Basketball players in general are lanky. What point are you trying to make? Kevin Durant? Tyson Chandler? Greek Freak? there are a million thin players. Look at WCS's shoulders. Very broad much like Tyson Chandler. WCS will lift and get stronger. Book it.

I used to think his ceiling was prime Tyson Chandler. Now I'm thinking it's pretty much a slam dunk (no pun intended) that WCS reaches that level. Only way he doesn't is if he gets injured or misbehaves and goes all Larry Sanders on us (which I doubt).

Yes, WCS is a great athlete, but he doesn't have Chandler's motor. He's a subpar rebounder.

soxfan2003 · Post #1846 » by **soxfan2003** » Fri Apr 24, 2015 3:56 pm

I have some concerns around WCS as well even on defense but how Calapari sometimes uses players is different than other coaches so WCS may not be as bad of a rebounder as some people think. I remember debating with a Grizzlies/Shareef Abdur-Rahim fan entering the 1996 draft and saying something that seemed extremely outrageous at the time and I was questioned on. I said something like Camby had the talent to either lead the NBA in rebounding or finish in the top 3 if he really wanted to and was tasked to do so. In college, he hadn't grabbed many more boards on a per minute basis than WCS did this year so the poster questioned me how could a player who didn't rebound well in college all of a sudden start rebounding in the NBA against much better competition?

But I saw Calipari was tasking other less versatile players to do the grunt work of defensive rebounding while using Camby more to roam on defense and try to block/intimidate shots over an extremely wide area and not just the paint. I mean at times he was challenging guards 20 ft from the basket and even some 3 point shooters. Other than perhaps Anthony Davis at the college level, a player simply can't be in 2 places at once so if WCS is rotating quite often to challenge some shots on the perimeter et cetera, he will be in very poor position to rebound. Is that his fault or does that just show his versatility?

In evaluating players at the college level, I have sometimes found its very important to really know the team and not just the prospect since then you have a much better idea why the coach is using a player a certain way and what the player is up against.

I'm not even saying WCS is a good rebounder but I am saying the numbers at the college level sometimes are pretty bogus especially if the player isn't being used conventionally in a well balanced team. Obviously the NBA is now judging much more closely how many rebounds a player gets when a player is in position to do so.

Post #1847 » by **165bows** » Fri Apr 24, 2015 4:01 pm

humblebum wrote:
ryaningf wrote:
Banks2Pierce wrote:I'm weirded out with trading up for WCS based on his Defensive rebounding and questionable love of the game. For him to work, you need an exact replica of Kevin Love's shooting and rebounding.

Right. WCS would be nice at 16 but trading up for him, losing additional assets for him, just doesn't make much sense, he's a one-dimensional, complimentary player with an overall impact of a player like KO...on some nights, your most important player, on other night you don't play him.

His own grandma wonders if he loves the game. He's a middling rebounder, would struggle initially doing the dirty work that good teams need from bigs (like setting picks, delivering hard fouls, clogging the middle, etc...), and is a complete zero on offense. Being able to switch onto a guard is nice, but there's more to being big man in the NBA than having the ability to switch onto a guard (in fact, being able to switch onto a guard isn't even a necessary condition of being a big man).

While there are guys I'd consider moving additional assets to acquire, WCS is not one of them. We got too many holes to target a role player. We need stars, we need go-to guys, we need size and rebounding. My prediction is that some team in the lottery takes him and gets disappointed quickly when they figure out he's useless on offense and can't do basic big man things. Like Tyson Chandler, he's going to bounce around a bit and not really hit his stride until ages 26-29.

You know what really sours me on WCS, though? That he doesn't rebound like a maniac. He plays defense like a maniac when he's locked in. If he could develop that kind of obsessiveness about rebounding then I'd be in DDB's boat. Then he'd be like Ben Wallace or Dennis Rodman--a perennial DPOY candidate. Rebounding = heart and love of the game for me. The guys that do it are smart, hard-working, and they love the game. Rebounding translates, rebounding like defense is always on (unlike shooting), rebounding is about effort and intelligence and the guys that do it tend to win.

While I agree with pretty much everything here I still think WCS will be on the short list of Celtics targets in the draft.

This team has a bunch of needs, as the series against Cleveland is proving, one of which is length and an alley pop threat. So no, I dont pay a premium for a rookie like WCS.

The Celtics need a versatile defender but I believe they need it in that 6'8" 6'9" mold of a long rangy forward with ball skills, Leonard and Draymond being good examples of the type of athlete I'm thinking of.

The "big man" isn't going to be cheap but I dont think that guy is Zeller. I doubt its WCS and would take it as a bad sign if he drops in the draft.

Rangy 6'9" guy with ball skills in this draft is Looney.

ddb · Post #1848 » by **ddb** » Fri Apr 24, 2015 4:08 pm

WCS on draft night. Kevin Love in Free Agency and then an upgrade at the 3 via trade. Then plug in the holes from there. This team can be legit by next season if Ainge executes his plan

pfm · Post #1849 » by **pfm** » Fri Apr 24, 2015 4:30 pm

165bows wrote:
@DraftExpress: Guillermo Hernangomez (1994) from @cdbsevilla will declare for the Draft. Represented by agent @GuiBermejo in Spain. Potential 1st rounder.

@DraftExpress: 7 guys in ACB history posted a PER of 20 at age 20 or prior: Stanley Roberts, Splitter, R. Fernandez, Rubio, Mirotic, Scola, W. Hernangomez

He's an interesting guy in the 2nd if we are looking for a draft and stash at that point.

pfm · Post #1850 » by **pfm** » Fri Apr 24, 2015 4:36 pm

If we are getting KLove, then I'm on board with moving KO or Sully for WCS. KLove provides the scoring, spacing, and rebounding (making KO/Sully a bit redundant), and WCS provides the interior defense.

BUT if we aren't getting a KLove type, I'd be reluctant to move assets to get WCS. He's a very specific role player and as a result I see him as a situational play.

CelticFaninLBC · Post #1851 » by **CelticFaninLBC** » Fri Apr 24, 2015 4:41 pm

Love's definitely the type of guy you pair with WCS. I think they have to deal Bradley to move up though. Can't see Sully or Olynyk having much value. Sully's overweight, injury prone and nearing free agency, and Olynyk's a finesse big, who hasn't done much.

Powe-Fessional · Post #1852 » by **Powe-Fessional** » Fri Apr 24, 2015 4:50 pm

On WCS:

Big Willy Style is in my top-5. I think any 7-footer that moves like he does is worthy of consideration. He's an athletic FREAK. This particular play got me off the couch....

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D3rYe5bofqM[/youtube]

It's just interesting to see some people praise Mario for being a really good shooter and being underutilized when you could easily make the same argument for WCS. Maybe he didn't rebound a ton because Towns was there. Or because he didn't play a lot of minutes (thanks to those line changes). Or maybe UK hit some shots. I know rebounding % factors in a bunch of that stuff, but %'s can get screwed up and skewed thanks to small sample sizes. Have to be careful with that. But what I do see is a guy that can almost literally guard anyone on the floor right now with the exception of some guards and bigger centers. Stein will fill out with a couple of good off-season weight programs and hopefully none of that will detract from his athleticism.

Some of the ideas trading up into the top-10 to get him are a little farfetched, but I think Boston should do that regardless if WCS is there or not.

humblebum · Post #1853 » by **humblebum** » Fri Apr 24, 2015 5:07 pm

CelticFaninLBC wrote:Love's definitely the type of guy you pair with WCS. I think they have to deal Bradley to move up though. Can't see Sully or Olynyk having much value. Sully's overweight, injury prone and nearing free agency, and Olynyk's a finesse big, who hasn't done much.

Zeller. He's a true Center and that's the position the Celtics need to upgrade the most.

Kelly doesn't have much value and Sullinger is probably a guy who a couple teams would love to have but won't want to give up too much to get him. Both of these guys have higher upsides than Tyler...

The Brad connection makes it tough to imagine trading Zeller on a certain level but if I'm Ainge I'm working hard on luring a big time center in free agency, which makes moving Z more palatable.

ryaningf · Post #1854 » by **ryaningf** » Fri Apr 24, 2015 5:12 pm

Powe-Fessional wrote:Maybe he didn't rebound a ton because Towns was there. Or because he didn't play a lot of minutes (thanks to those line changes). Or maybe UK hit some shots. I know rebounding % factors in a bunch of that stuff, but %'s can get screwed up and skewed thanks to small sample sizes. Have to be careful with that.

The sample is large and contains 3 different years/teams and yet his rebound/100 possessions rate has been eerily consistent: 15.7, 15.5, 15.6. About on par with MKG's lone season at Kentucky.

Most good/great rebounders at the college level at the 4/5 are around 20/100 possessions. WCS's #s ain't terrible but do fit into the narrative that he's not 100% focused on the court or in love with the game.... And while I can buy that chases guards on the perimeter impacts defensive rebound #s, how do you explain his offensive rebound #s?

If you want a young bouncy defensive minded shotblocker who can actually board too, how about Nerlens Noel? Now there's a guy I'd give up assets for...

humblebum · Post #1855 » by **humblebum** » Fri Apr 24, 2015 5:16 pm

Depends on the assets... If WCS slides to 10 and I have to give up 28 & a couple second round picks... I might consider that.

But it also depends on who lands at 16... There are some guys slated to be available that I find similarly interesting to Cauley Stein.

Gomes3PC · Post #1856 » by **Gomes3PC** » Fri Apr 24, 2015 5:26 pm

jfs1000d wrote:Myles Turner?

22 minutes, 11 ppg. I guess if you ignore Oubre's season, you do have to consider that Turnr is coach be Rock barnes.

BTW, who does more with less Rick Barnes or Bill Self?

Why ignore Oubre's season? He got in the doghouse early with Self but on the whole his per-40 minute stats are very worthy of a top-12 pick.

As for Self, he's won a title, almost won another, been to 5 Elite 8's and 7 Sweet 16's since taking over Kansas. Not sure what there isn't to like about Bill Self as an NCAA coach, and he's got 11 guys in the NBA right now who he coached, plus Oubre and Alexander about to join the ranks.

Powe-Fessional · Post #1857 » by **Powe-Fessional** » Fri Apr 24, 2015 7:48 pm

ryaningf wrote:
Powe-Fessional wrote:Maybe he didn't rebound a ton because Towns was there. Or because he didn't play a lot of minutes (thanks to those line changes). Or maybe UK hit some shots. I know rebounding % factors in a bunch of that stuff, but %'s can get screwed up and skewed thanks to small sample sizes. Have to be careful with that.

The sample is large and contains 3 different years/teams and yet his rebound/100 possessions rate has been eerily consistent: 15.7, 15.5, 15.6. About on par with MKG's lone season at Kentucky.

Most good/great rebounders at the college level at the 4/5 are around 20/100 possessions. WCS's #s ain't terrible but do fit into the narrative that he's not 100% focused on the court or in love with the game.... And while I can buy that chases guards on the perimeter impacts defensive rebound #s, how do you explain his offensive rebound #s?

If you want a young bouncy defensive minded shotblocker who can actually board too, how about Nerlens Noel? Now there's a guy I'd give up assets for...

Let's actually put all the stats out there so everyone can see and not look them up like I just did. Here are the numbers for guys WCS has played with down low in his career at UK (well the important ones):

WCS:

Per 100 (total rebounds) - 15.7, 15.9, 15.6
Advanced - 12, 12.6, 11.1 (offensive %); 17.2, 16.3, 17.3 (defensive %); 14.8, 14.5, 14.5 (total %)

Towns

Per 100 - 19.9
Advanced (O%, D%, TOT%) - 14.2, 22.3, 18.5

Julius Randle

Per 100 - 20.5
Advanced - 13.3, 24.7, 19.2

Nerlens Noel

Per 100 - 17.8
Advanced - 10.4, 22.3, 16.8

Dakari Johnson

Per 100 - 17.0, 17.7
Advanced - 17.0, 13.4; 15.0, 19.1; 15.9, 16.5

So what have we learned here? Well let's look at Randle because he's the best rebounder of the group. Guy is a monster. I wish he played this year so we would have a better idea if he's going to be good offensively or not. I'd argue out of this bunch he's the worst defender. Nerlens Noel would have went #1 overall if he didn't tear his ACL that year. Towns should probably go number one this year. So I'm okay with WCS not being as good as two #1 picks. That's fine by me. Normally those guys don't fall to #10, nevermind #16. Now, each guy has their own unique skill set. WCS runs the floor well, good shot blocker, can rebound because he's 7-feet tall, limited offensive game right now, and has unreal potential as a defender. Noel is almost the same thing, but with way more offensive upside. Cauley-Stein could be similar to Anthony Davis, but Davis has guard skills in the weirdest body I've ever seen.

I think the real question here is: Is everyone undervaluing Dakari Johnson?

ddb · Post #1858 » by **ddb** » Fri Apr 24, 2015 9:07 pm

Powe-Fessional wrote:
ryaningf wrote:
Powe-Fessional wrote:Maybe he didn't rebound a ton because Towns was there. Or because he didn't play a lot of minutes (thanks to those line changes). Or maybe UK hit some shots. I know rebounding % factors in a bunch of that stuff, but %'s can get screwed up and skewed thanks to small sample sizes. Have to be careful with that.

The sample is large and contains 3 different years/teams and yet his rebound/100 possessions rate has been eerily consistent: 15.7, 15.5, 15.6. About on par with MKG's lone season at Kentucky.

Most good/great rebounders at the college level at the 4/5 are around 20/100 possessions. WCS's #s ain't terrible but do fit into the narrative that he's not 100% focused on the court or in love with the game.... And while I can buy that chases guards on the perimeter impacts defensive rebound #s, how do you explain his offensive rebound #s?

If you want a young bouncy defensive minded shotblocker who can actually board too, how about Nerlens Noel? Now there's a guy I'd give up assets for...

Let's actually put all the stats out there so everyone can see and not look them up like I just did. Here are the numbers for guys WCS has played with down low in his career at UK (well the important ones):

WCS:

Per 100 (total rebounds) - 15.7, 15.9, 15.6
Advanced - 12, 12.6, 11.1 (offensive %); 17.2, 16.3, 17.3 (defensive %); 14.8, 14.5, 14.5 (total %)

Towns

Per 100 - 19.9
Advanced (O%, D%, TOT%) - 14.2, 22.3, 18.5

Julius Randle

Per 100 - 20.5
Advanced - 13.3, 24.7, 19.2

Nerlens Noel

Per 100 - 17.8
Advanced - 10.4, 22.3, 16.8

Dakari Johnson

Per 100 - 17.0, 17.7
Advanced - 17.0, 13.4; 15.0, 19.1; 15.9, 16.5

So what have we learned here? Well let's look at Randle because he's the best rebounder of the group. Guy is a monster. I wish he played this year so we would have a better idea if he's going to be good offensively or not. I'd argue out of this bunch he's the worst defender. Nerlens Noel would have went #1 overall if he didn't tear his ACL that year. Towns should probably go number one this year. So I'm okay with WCS not being as good as two #1 picks. That's fine by me. Normally those guys don't fall to #10, nevermind #16. Now, each guy has their own unique skill set. WCS runs the floor well, good shot blocker, can rebound because he's 7-feet tall, limited offensive game right now, and has unreal potential as a defender. Noel is almost the same thing, but with way more offensive upside. Cauley-Stein could be similar to Anthony Davis, but Davis has guard skills in the weirdest body I've ever seen.

I think the real question here is: Is everyone undervaluing Dakari Johnson?

Good post. Just a couple comments from me based on what you said.

#1- I like WCS more then Nerlens Noel. So for me it's WCS > Noel
#2- Yeah, I think people undervalue Dakari. I'm just afraid that Dakari is the next Daniel Orton
#3- I am also very curious to see what type of player Julius Randle becomes.

jfs1000d · Post #1859 » by **jfs1000d** » Fri Apr 24, 2015 9:20 pm

Gomes3PC wrote:
jfs1000d wrote:Myles Turner?

22 minutes, 11 ppg. I guess if you ignore Oubre's season, you do have to consider that Turnr is coach be Rock barnes.

BTW, who does more with less Rick Barnes or Bill Self?

Why ignore Oubre's season? He got in the doghouse early with Self but on the whole his per-40 minute stats are very worthy of a top-12 pick.

As for Self, he's won a title, almost won another, been to 5 Elite 8's and 7 Sweet 16's since taking over Kansas. Not sure what there isn't to like about Bill Self as an NCAA coach, and he's got 11 guys in the NBA right now who he coached, plus Oubre and Alexander about to join the ranks.

Self lucked into a title and has had more talent there than Uconn, Louisville, butler, and Syracuse has had in a decade. .

KumaJG · Post #1860 » by **KumaJG** » Fri Apr 24, 2015 9:56 pm

Gomes3PC wrote:
KumaJG wrote:
Gomes3PC wrote:Yeah I fail to see the excitement around Trey Lyles.

Won't find a good center at the position were picking. Trey Lyles is Kentucky second best prospect. Good size and a nice offensive skill set. You are getting someone that should be a lottery in the 16th spot is a steal. His upside is amazing.

There is going to be a lot of interesting and good picks available to us at the 16th spot.

No, Lyles is not. Lyles really didn't show much of anything last year. He was a mediocre defender playing out of position, meaning he basically lost a year learning and he was a subpar defensive player coming into college. For all his length it never manifested itself in blocks, steals or rebounds. Offensively, despite being a 4th or 5th option he didn't convert an even average rate of his opportunities. He also didn't display the ability to stretch the floor from beyond the arc, which is a necessity nowadays from PFs who aren't elite defensively or on the glass (Lyles is neither).

Simply put, Lyles looks like he's going to be a decent 3rd big. A Darrell Arthur, Kris Humphries type. That's not exciting at all to me.

If we can't get an interesting prospect at center, I'd rather we just go for a SF or if we go PF, find a floor-spacer. We're as desperate for shooting as anything else.

He can shoot the midrange, post, can pass and take defenders off then dribble. His offensive skill set is legit. His defense lacking but that can improve. Trey was just overshadowed at Kentucky because the loaded frontcourt.