Brad Stevens Thread – Finding The Way

[Hal14]

I hate giving up back to back 1st round picks. If we win a title this year ( possible but unlikely) then you can easily justify that but if we dont then we will have lost 2 good opportunities to add young, cheap talent to our roster. But that also goes back to Danny passing on several guys who would have helped . Going into next year we still need shooting and we’re going to need at least one young big for our front court and possibly a wing as well. Right now it appears that has to happen through free agency

It is especially difficult for those draft picks to actually turn into anything when they come to a team that's in win-now mode and loaded with players in their mid-20s. Many of Danny's picks could never find consistent playing time because of the roster situation so naturally, they were going to be wasted. Brad rightly evaluated that between Grant, PP, and Nesmith this team already had all the minutes it could spare for young players and Nesmith still has trouble finding consistent minutes. That last thing this team needs is guys having an even harder time finding minutes than Nesmith is. Trading those picks away was the right call. Whoever Brad could have drafted at ~25 next draft was almost certainly not going to see the floor much next season.

I agree almost 100%.. The small exception is having pick 25 might have netted us a young BIG on a team that has an injury prone star in RW and an old Big in Al.

We also have Theis under contract for 3 more years after this one.

Would be kind of silly to draft a center in the 1st round, if he's going to be 4th stringer..

[playa-hater]

It is especially difficult for those draft picks to actually turn into anything when they come to a team that's in win-now mode and loaded with players in their mid-20s. Many of Danny's picks could never find consistent playing time because of the roster situation so naturally, they were going to be wasted. Brad rightly evaluated that between Grant, PP, and Nesmith this team already had all the minutes it could spare for young players and Nesmith still has trouble finding consistent minutes. That last thing this team needs is guys having an even harder time finding minutes than Nesmith is. Trading those picks away was the right call. Whoever Brad could have drafted at ~25 next draft was almost certainly not going to see the floor much next season.

I agree almost 100%.. The small exception is having pick 25 might have netted us a young BIG on a team that has an injury prone star in RW and an old Big in Al.

We also have Theis under contract for 3 more years after this one.

Would be kind of silly to draft a center in the 1st round, if he's going to be 4th stringer..

Al may not even be there next vear..RW can get hurt..Theis is a small center..

So I respectfully disagree

[BK_2020]

The chances of pick 25 turning into anything is very low, and the chances of a big picked there turning into anything is even lower. The chances of pick 25 turning into anything on a team that can't give him playing time is even lower.

[zoyathedestroya]

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[zoyathedestroya]

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[zoyathedestroya]

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[djFan71]

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That's a vision worth dying to protect.

[Captain_Caveman]

Was asked by Fencer on the Dark Board recently whether I still thought the Celtics had little chance of contending. Gave a long-winded answer that encapsulates my thoughts on Brad as GM that I thought were relevant for the conversation here.

TBH, yes.

Even back then, I said that half the league could be borderline top 5 in this league if all things go well for them. The difference between the Knicks and Hawks and us last year was health. Same for us and the Bulls early this season and later in the season.

Problem with being borderline top 5 in a best case scenario is that there are usually only 2-3 teams that matter in the league at any given moment. Maybe we get lucky this year like the Raps did in 2019, but we are not championship caliber IMO.

A secondary factor to us being healthier now IMO is the fact that Brad has now traded ~2.25 future first round picks over the last year. That's short-term thinking by design. Short-term moves should obviously lead to some degree of short-term results, and that appears to have happened. If that results in us sneaking through to win a title, hats off. If it results are us getting a minor boost from being 10th-12th best to 5th-6th best with no true shot at contending, that's a little more questionable.

With all that said, while I am not as big a believer in this team or Brad's moves as others, I have no problem with any of it. Not sure what else they were supposed to do. Can't blow it up or tank with two stars that are 24-25yo. Ever since the AD trade fell through, we have likely been playing out the string on a rebuild that will top out just below the ability to contend and win titles IMO. We are hardly alone there. Same thing the the Jazz, Nuggets, and Sixers are doing in the toughest US pro league to win a title in. Glorified treadmilling, most likely, but every once in a while one of those 2nd tier teams sneaks through, as the Raps did in 2019.

If it's a lie, we fight on that lie. Might as well enjoy it.

[Jaqua92]

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Just to be clear, lol.


Brad's knocked it out of the park this year. Exceeded all expectations.

Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk

[Fencer reregistered]

I don't see the Celtics as being "borderline top 5 in a best-case scenario". Who are the teams that might be in the top tier(s)?

Phoenix -- looking good. CP3 has age and durability concerns, however.
Memphis -- clearly. But Ja, JJJ and good teammates are not in some tier over Jayson, Jaylen and good teammates.
Warriors -- all three of the top guys are of questionable age/durability. And Wiggins of course is the most borderline of borderline all-stars.
Denver -- Jokic is awesome. Murray is a good bet to come back good. MPJ not so much.
Clippers -- two stars if healthy. They're rarely healthy.
Philly -- not that great unless Harden is rejuvenated.
Bucks -- Giannis' sidekicks are 30+.
Nets -- well, you know.
Heat -- Bam, some old guys, and some white shooters who can't defend.

I think the Celtics stack up well against those guys.
-- Tatum is elite.
-- Jaylen is a nice borderline all-star, in a higher tier than (say) Wiggins.
-- Rob is pretty close to Gobert at either end of the court.

But what's really impressive about the Cs is the defensive talent. Who's the fifth-best defender among the starters? Jaylen? Al? When in the history of the league has there been a team that consistently good on defense? I'd rank our worst defensive starter as being a better defender than Ainge, or Craig Hodges, or Tony Parker, or Adrian Dantley/Mark Aguirre ... The bench has excellent defenders as well.

Also, some teams have the advantage of being more than the sum of the parts, thanks to coaching. The Celtics seem to be in that group.

[OBisHalJordan]

I don't see the Celtics as being "borderline top 5 in a best-case scenario". Who are the teams that might be in the top tier(s)?

Phoenix -- looking good. CP3 has age and durability concerns, however.
Memphis -- clearly. But Ja, JJJ and good teammates are not in some tier over Jayson, Jaylen and good teammates.
Warriors -- all three of the top guys are of questionable age/durability. And Wiggins of course is the most borderline of borderline all-stars.
Denver -- Jokic is awesome. Murray is a good bet to come back good. MPJ not so much.
Clippers -- two stars if healthy. They're rarely healthy.
Philly -- not that great unless Harden is rejuvenated.
Bucks -- Giannis' sidekicks are 30+.
Nets -- well, you know.
Heat -- Bam, some old guys, and some white shooters who can't defend.

I think the Celtics stack up well against those guys.
-- Tatum is elite.
-- Jaylen is a nice borderline all-star, in a higher tier than (say) Wiggins.
-- Rob is pretty close to Gobert at either end of the court.

But what's really impressive about the Cs is the defensive talent. Who's the fifth-best defender among the starters? Jaylen? Al? When in the history of the league has there been a team that consistently good on defense? I'd rank our worst defensive starter as being a better defender than Ainge, or Craig Hodges, or Tony Parker, or Adrian Dantley/Mark Aguirre ... The bench has excellent defenders as well.

Also, some teams have the advantage of being more than the sum of the parts, thanks to coaching. The Celtics seem to be in that group.

This post made me think that focusing on defense might be the best way to build a championship team. Not only is it less flashy than offense, defense is a harder to skill to render statistically legible. For this reason, I think you can make a strong case that defense is systematically undervalued in the appreciation of basketball.

Can defensive skillsets can be acquired for less than offensive ones? I think so but I don't haven't really looked systematically, just may impression from following the league.

Maybe we have already have a super team? Tatum and Brown are both legit two way players, the former a superstar the latter an (borderline/occasional) all-star. Are Smart and Williams defensive stars?

[Fencer reregistered]

I'm not sure defense is all that cheap. For example:

-- Horford has been overpaid for his offensive and rebounding contributions for a long time, suggesting his defense is valued.
-- White isn't cheap.
-- Rob is underpaid assuming good availability, but availability concerns may have a lot to do with that.
-- A lot of wings with good defense and meh offense seem to get questionable contracts.

[Captain_Caveman]

I don't see the Celtics as being "borderline top 5 in a best-case scenario". Who are the teams that might be in the top tier(s)?

Phoenix -- looking good. CP3 has age and durability concerns, however.
Memphis -- clearly. But Ja, JJJ and good teammates are not in some tier over Jayson, Jaylen and good teammates.
Warriors -- all three of the top guys are of questionable age/durability. And Wiggins of course is the most borderline of borderline all-stars.
Denver -- Jokic is awesome. Murray is a good bet to come back good. MPJ not so much.
Clippers -- two stars if healthy. They're rarely healthy.
Philly -- not that great unless Harden is rejuvenated.
Bucks -- Giannis' sidekicks are 30+.
Nets -- well, you know.
Heat -- Bam, some old guys, and some white shooters who can't defend.

I think the Celtics stack up well against those guys.
-- Tatum is elite.
-- Jaylen is a nice borderline all-star, in a higher tier than (say) Wiggins.
-- Rob is pretty close to Gobert at either end of the court.

But what's really impressive about the Cs is the defensive talent. Who's the fifth-best defender among the starters? Jaylen? Al? When in the history of the league has there been a team that consistently good on defense? I'd rank our worst defensive starter as being a better defender than Ainge, or Craig Hodges, or Tony Parker, or Adrian Dantley/Mark Aguirre ... The bench has excellent defenders as well.

Also, some teams have the advantage of being more than the sum of the parts, thanks to coaching. The Celtics seem to be in that group.

I agree that the Celts play as a team. I do think other teams have star power that we don't have. Our record stacks up, but that might be a bit of a mirage accounting for injuries and current health of teams. We aren't even favored in the 1st round and wouldn't have the best player on the floor vs the Nets, Bucks, or Sixers. The Suns had 13 more wins than we did despite a lot more injuries. Warriors might finally be healthy. We are in the pack but not at the front of it.

Perhaps taking a realistic view of championship odds is more insightful than asking whether we are the 4th or 6th most likely team? I think our odds are probably just below 10% this year. Was that worth Brad spending future assets to maximize short-term performance vs Ainge hoarding future assets to try to make an eventual kill shot trade? I guess we will find out, but I feel like people are a little too far upfield on that one right now. Putting aside the question of which model is better suited to build a true contender or championship team, we don't even know if Brad's model is a significant improvement in the short-term once the real games start.

The Knicks looked good in the regular season last year because they were healthier and trying harder than other teams. Most of the other teams with good records this year have been more injured or load-managing a lot more than we did, and IMO we just might come to find out that our talent tops out below a lot of them. We also have a rookie head coach in the playoffs, where coaching actually matters.

Not rooting for that, just think you can make a solid case that for many teams, the quality of rosters taking the floor in these playoffs are better than their record this year. Suns, Grizz, Heat, Bucks, Warriors, Sixers, Nets, Raps, Timberwolves can all say that, if not the Mavs as well. Can we?

[Fencer reregistered]

I don't see the Celtics as being "borderline top 5 in a best-case scenario". Who are the teams that might be in the top tier(s)?

Phoenix -- looking good. CP3 has age and durability concerns, however.
Memphis -- clearly. But Ja, JJJ and good teammates are not in some tier over Jayson, Jaylen and good teammates.
Warriors -- all three of the top guys are of questionable age/durability. And Wiggins of course is the most borderline of borderline all-stars.
Denver -- Jokic is awesome. Murray is a good bet to come back good. MPJ not so much.
Clippers -- two stars if healthy. They're rarely healthy.
Philly -- not that great unless Harden is rejuvenated.
Bucks -- Giannis' sidekicks are 30+.
Nets -- well, you know.
Heat -- Bam, some old guys, and some white shooters who can't defend.

I think the Celtics stack up well against those guys.
-- Tatum is elite.
-- Jaylen is a nice borderline all-star, in a higher tier than (say) Wiggins.
-- Rob is pretty close to Gobert at either end of the court.

But what's really impressive about the Cs is the defensive talent. Who's the fifth-best defender among the starters? Jaylen? Al? When in the history of the league has there been a team that consistently good on defense? I'd rank our worst defensive starter as being a better defender than Ainge, or Craig Hodges, or Tony Parker, or Adrian Dantley/Mark Aguirre ... The bench has excellent defenders as well.

Also, some teams have the advantage of being more than the sum of the parts, thanks to coaching. The Celtics seem to be in that group.

I agree that the Celts play as a team. I do think other teams have star power that we don't have. Our record stacks up, but that might be a bit of a mirage accounting for injuries and current health of teams. We aren't even favored in the 1st round and wouldn't have the best player on the floor vs the Nets, Bucks, or Sixers. The Suns had 13 more wins than we did despite a lot more injuries. Warriors might finally be healthy. We are in the pack but not at the front of it.

Perhaps taking a realistic view of championship odds is more insightful than asking whether we are the 4th or 6th most likely team? I think our odds are probably just below 10% this year. Was that worth Brad spending future assets to maximize short-term performance vs Ainge hoarding future assets to try to make an eventual kill shot trade? I guess we will find out, but I feel like people are a little too far upfield on that one right now. Putting aside the question of which model is better suited to build a true contender or championship team, we don't even know if Brad's model is a significant improvement in the short-term once the real games start.

The Knicks looked good in the regular season last year because they were healthier and trying harder than other teams. Most of the other teams with good records this year have been more injured or load-managing a lot more than we did, and IMO we just might come to find out that our talent tops out below a lot of them. We also have a rookie head coach in the playoffs, where coaching actually matters.

Not rooting for that, just think you can make a solid case that for many teams, the quality of rosters taking the floor in these playoffs are better than their record this year. Suns, Grizz, Heat, Bucks, Warriors, Sixers, Nets, Raps, Timberwolves can all say that, if not the Mavs as well. Can we?

Yes we can. The if-healthy team seems to have been a lot better in the latter part of the season than in the earlier part, quite apart from any observations that they were in fact healthy later but not earlier. Given that both scheme and personnel changed mid-season to moderate extents, it seems plausible that this is more than just an illusion.

[sam_I_am]

I don't see the Celtics as being "borderline top 5 in a best-case scenario". Who are the teams that might be in the top tier(s)?

Phoenix -- looking good. CP3 has age and durability concerns, however.
Memphis -- clearly. But Ja, JJJ and good teammates are not in some tier over Jayson, Jaylen and good teammates.
Warriors -- all three of the top guys are of questionable age/durability. And Wiggins of course is the most borderline of borderline all-stars.
Denver -- Jokic is awesome. Murray is a good bet to come back good. MPJ not so much.
Clippers -- two stars if healthy. They're rarely healthy.
Philly -- not that great unless Harden is rejuvenated.
Bucks -- Giannis' sidekicks are 30+.
Nets -- well, you know.
Heat -- Bam, some old guys, and some white shooters who can't defend.

I think the Celtics stack up well against those guys.
-- Tatum is elite.
-- Jaylen is a nice borderline all-star, in a higher tier than (say) Wiggins.
-- Rob is pretty close to Gobert at either end of the court.

But what's really impressive about the Cs is the defensive talent. Who's the fifth-best defender among the starters? Jaylen? Al? When in the history of the league has there been a team that consistently good on defense? I'd rank our worst defensive starter as being a better defender than Ainge, or Craig Hodges, or Tony Parker, or Adrian Dantley/Mark Aguirre ... The bench has excellent defenders as well.

Also, some teams have the advantage of being more than the sum of the parts, thanks to coaching. The Celtics seem to be in that group.

I agree that the Celts play as a team. I do think other teams have star power that we don't have. Our record stacks up, but that might be a bit of a mirage accounting for injuries and current health of teams. We aren't even favored in the 1st round and wouldn't have the best player on the floor vs the Nets, Bucks, or Sixers. The Suns had 13 more wins than we did despite a lot more injuries. Warriors might finally be healthy. We are in the pack but not at the front of it.

Perhaps taking a realistic view of championship odds is more insightful than asking whether we are the 4th or 6th most likely team? I think our odds are probably just below 10% this year. Was that worth Brad spending future assets to maximize short-term performance vs Ainge hoarding future assets to try to make an eventual kill shot trade? I guess we will find out, but I feel like people are a little too far upfield on that one right now. Putting aside the question of which model is better suited to build a true contender or championship team, we don't even know if Brad's model is a significant improvement in the short-term once the real games start.

The Knicks looked good in the regular season last year because they were healthier and trying harder than other teams. Most of the other teams with good records this year have been more injured or load-managing a lot more than we did, and IMO we just might come to find out that our talent tops out below a lot of them. We also have a rookie head coach in the playoffs, where coaching actually matters.

Not rooting for that, just think you can make a solid case that for many teams, the quality of rosters taking the floor in these playoffs are better than their record this year. Suns, Grizz, Heat, Bucks, Warriors, Sixers, Nets, Raps, Timberwolves can all say that, if not the Mavs as well. Can we?

Of course we can say we are better than our record. New coach, new system, a ruined training camp/preseason due to Covid, ongoing health issues that plagued team thru December, mid season trades - it all played a part in a 25-25 start that dramatically underrepresented this team. We might even be better than our 26-6 record since then given RW injury.

I think our team’s performance and previous playoff experience/success justifies our optimism. I think the Bucks might be much better than their record given the importance of Lopez to their success and of course the Nets for reasons talked about ad nauseum.

It’s possible our team is like the bubble season Bucks who I think at one time had all time great win differentials and off/def ratings and then lost momentum and flamed out badly. It’s possible that having the best player on the court will matter more than having the best team. We’ve seen that with Al Horford teams before. Yet we also saw a true #1 star-less Heat team get to the finals too.

[Captain_Caveman]

I don't see the Celtics as being "borderline top 5 in a best-case scenario". Who are the teams that might be in the top tier(s)?

Phoenix -- looking good. CP3 has age and durability concerns, however.
Memphis -- clearly. But Ja, JJJ and good teammates are not in some tier over Jayson, Jaylen and good teammates.
Warriors -- all three of the top guys are of questionable age/durability. And Wiggins of course is the most borderline of borderline all-stars.
Denver -- Jokic is awesome. Murray is a good bet to come back good. MPJ not so much.
Clippers -- two stars if healthy. They're rarely healthy.
Philly -- not that great unless Harden is rejuvenated.
Bucks -- Giannis' sidekicks are 30+.
Nets -- well, you know.
Heat -- Bam, some old guys, and some white shooters who can't defend.

I think the Celtics stack up well against those guys.
-- Tatum is elite.
-- Jaylen is a nice borderline all-star, in a higher tier than (say) Wiggins.
-- Rob is pretty close to Gobert at either end of the court.

But what's really impressive about the Cs is the defensive talent. Who's the fifth-best defender among the starters? Jaylen? Al? When in the history of the league has there been a team that consistently good on defense? I'd rank our worst defensive starter as being a better defender than Ainge, or Craig Hodges, or Tony Parker, or Adrian Dantley/Mark Aguirre ... The bench has excellent defenders as well.

Also, some teams have the advantage of being more than the sum of the parts, thanks to coaching. The Celtics seem to be in that group.

I agree that the Celts play as a team. I do think other teams have star power that we don't have. Our record stacks up, but that might be a bit of a mirage accounting for injuries and current health of teams. We aren't even favored in the 1st round and wouldn't have the best player on the floor vs the Nets, Bucks, or Sixers. The Suns had 13 more wins than we did despite a lot more injuries. Warriors might finally be healthy. We are in the pack but not at the front of it.

Perhaps taking a realistic view of championship odds is more insightful than asking whether we are the 4th or 6th most likely team? I think our odds are probably just below 10% this year. Was that worth Brad spending future assets to maximize short-term performance vs Ainge hoarding future assets to try to make an eventual kill shot trade? I guess we will find out, but I feel like people are a little too far upfield on that one right now. Putting aside the question of which model is better suited to build a true contender or championship team, we don't even know if Brad's model is a significant improvement in the short-term once the real games start.

The Knicks looked good in the regular season last year because they were healthier and trying harder than other teams. Most of the other teams with good records this year have been more injured or load-managing a lot more than we did, and IMO we just might come to find out that our talent tops out below a lot of them. We also have a rookie head coach in the playoffs, where coaching actually matters.

Not rooting for that, just think you can make a solid case that for many teams, the quality of rosters taking the floor in these playoffs are better than their record this year. Suns, Grizz, Heat, Bucks, Warriors, Sixers, Nets, Raps, Timberwolves can all say that, if not the Mavs as well. Can we?

Yes we can. The if-healthy team seems to have been a lot better in the latter part of the season than in the earlier part, quite apart from any observations that they were in fact healthy later but not earlier. Given that both scheme and personnel changed mid-season to moderate extents, it seems plausible that this is more than just an illusion.

I guess so. We definitely closed strong over the last 45 games. On the other hand, we are also likely to be without Timelord for at least the bulk of the Nets series. Not really trying to answer the questions right now. They playoffs will do that for us, in all likelihood.

I do think the following things are true:

1. We are better than last year's team.
2. Nearly all of that is due to better health and trading multiple draft picks.
3. It could all easily end up with the same result at last year, if we lose to a lesser Nets team in the first round while 5x healthier.
4. The East is tough, but there is really no one to fear.
5. We definitely could sneak through this year.

I do remember watching the Knicks last year and seeing that they were healthy, had chemistry, and played defense harder than most teams care to in the regular season, and thinking, "Awwww, that's cute."

Tatum alone makes us better than last year's Knicks, but a part of me is wondering how much so in the scheme of things.

[sam_I_am]

The ownership and bean counters clearly looked at this season as a bridge year with strict mandate to stay under luxury tax. It’s obvious they did not expect the window to open until next year. Maybe Brad felt differently when he spent future draft capital or maybe he just realizes that more young players outside the top 5-10 wouldn’t do a thing for this team right now. The Celtics have clicked and it’s led to a level of performance far beyond expected. The window of opportunity for another title may only be open a crack but it is definitely open. If it crashes in first round then so be it. If Celtics can dispose of Nets - and I think they will - they will have a huge psychological advantage and home court over the Bucks. With a healthy Rob and a wave of interior defenders to throw at Giannis the Celtics might do something special. As far as I’m concerned it’s all icing on the cake at this point as this season looked lost before it even began.

[Shak_Celts]

I'm so glad we are the only one who faced those injured teams. Literally no other team faced those same teams. Lucky us, the league took care of us!! Thank you sweet baby Jesus!!!!

[Captain_Caveman]

The ownership and bean counters clearly looked at this season as a bridge year with strict mandate to stay under luxury tax. It’s obvious they did not expect the window to open until next year. Maybe Brad felt differently when he spent future draft capital or maybe he just realizes that more young players outside the top 5-10 wouldn’t do a thing for this team right now. The Celtics have clicked and it’s led to a level of performance far beyond expected. The window of opportunity for another title may only be open a crack but it is definitely open. If it crashes in first round then so be it. If Celtics can dispose of Nets - and I think they will - they will have a huge psychological advantage and home court over the Bucks. With a healthy Rob and a wave of interior defenders to throw at Giannis the Celtics might do something special. As far as I’m concerned it’s all icing on the cake at this point as this season looked lost before it even began.

But why did we then go above the tax this year?

[SatchSanders]

I agree that the Celts play as a team. I do think other teams have star power that we don't have. Our record stacks up, but that might be a bit of a mirage accounting for injuries and current health of teams. We aren't even favored in the 1st round and wouldn't have the best player on the floor vs the Nets, Bucks, or Sixers. The Suns had 13 more wins than we did despite a lot more injuries. Warriors might finally be healthy. We are in the pack but not at the front of it.

Perhaps taking a realistic view of championship odds is more insightful than asking whether we are the 4th or 6th most likely team? I think our odds are probably just below 10% this year. Was that worth Brad spending future assets to maximize short-term performance vs Ainge hoarding future assets to try to make an eventual kill shot trade? I guess we will find out, but I feel like people are a little too far upfield on that one right now. Putting aside the question of which model is better suited to build a true contender or championship team, we don't even know if Brad's model is a significant improvement in the short-term once the real games start.

The Knicks looked good in the regular season last year because they were healthier and trying harder than other teams. Most of the other teams with good records this year have been more injured or load-managing a lot more than we did, and IMO we just might come to find out that our talent tops out below a lot of them. We also have a rookie head coach in the playoffs, where coaching actually matters.

Not rooting for that, just think you can make a solid case that for many teams, the quality of rosters taking the floor in these playoffs are better than their record this year. Suns, Grizz, Heat, Bucks, Warriors, Sixers, Nets, Raps, Timberwolves can all say that, if not the Mavs as well. Can we?

Yes we can. The if-healthy team seems to have been a lot better in the latter part of the season than in the earlier part, quite apart from any observations that they were in fact healthy later but not earlier. Given that both scheme and personnel changed mid-season to moderate extents, it seems plausible that this is more than just an illusion.

I guess so. We definitely closed strong over the last 45 games. On the other hand, we are also likely to be without Timelord for at least the bulk of the Nets series. Not really trying to answer the questions right now. They playoffs will do that for us, in all likelihood.

I do think the following things are true:

1. We are better than last year's team.
2. Nearly all of that is due to better health and trading multiple draft picks.
3. It could all easily end up with the same result at last year, if we lose to a lesser Nets team in the first round while 5x healthier.
4. The East is tough, but there is really no one to fear.
5. We definitely could sneak through this year.

I do remember watching the Knicks last year and seeing that they were healthy, had chemistry, and played defense harder than most teams care to in the regular season, and thinking, "Awwww, that's cute."

Tatum alone makes us better than last year's Knicks, but a part of me is wondering how much so in the scheme of things.

I appreciate your caution Captain. We won’t know if the Celtics can win playoff series with Tatum and Brown leading them until it actually happens. This series against the Nets with their big and marketable stars poses a big obstacle.

I think for the most part the Celtics will be allowed to defend. In past years Boston had undersized poor-defending PGs as their alphas. The only exception was when Kyrie went down; Tatum tried to emerge but wasn’t quite ready to beat LeBron. But now the Celtics can defend without any weak links until you get down to Pritchard as 8th man (which is why I think he’s trade bait this summer for a jumping Jack big). Brown falls asleep sometimes off-ball and White can be abused in the post. Maybe Durant plus four jackrabbits can outscore Boston. But for that to be the extent of your defensive concerns seems remarkable to me.

So I do think defensive fit signifies a substantial market advantage or arbitrage that Boston has identified. Going forward they need to think carefully about the net benefit of any players they bring in, whether they can fill the requirement to do no harm defensively. That’s the foundation.

Plus role players are more likely to play within the system rather than demand their turn to shoot. The third star would provide scoring redundancy if Tatum or Brown are out for some future series. But ultimately defense holds its value better than a third star who needs to subjugate to Tatum at least.

So I think this team is well-positioned to beat Brooklyn and run this gauntlet even with Rob out this round. But it’s a delicate balance for Boston moving forward to bring in the right fits each year as guys get more expensive, want a larger role, etc. It wasn’t just health and scheme that turned around the season, but guys accepting the need to share the ball (Jays) and defer (Smart) if they want to stay (Schroder). From that human standpoint I agree with Captain that we should be cautious and enjoy each good year when it happens.