Celtics 2023-24, Season Thread, (con't)

[London2Boston]

6ers are a better team than Miami. They look better even without Embiid never mind when he returns. Miami can flip a switch like no other, but that’s never been an every season thing for them either.

[Fierce1]

I prefer Miami in the 1st rnd than the Sixers.

[165bows]

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Thing is, almost all the metrics rate the Celtics as a really elite team and in some categories, as a historically great team. But these numbers are against the entire league (including the dregs of the NBA). As you go deeper in the playoffs, Cs are playing the best of the best. And if they want to win the title, they're likely to play someone on their level or even better. These numbers won't mean much then in a 7-game series. And even less in clutch situations where they'll find themselves in more. But kudos to the team for doing all they can to be consistently, objectively great in the regular season. Flaws will be magnified in the playoffs. Weaknesses exposed. Hope we're ready to hide/minimize those when it matters the most. Nothing else to prove here. Let's get the postseason on!

Could make the argument they need to be an elite box-out team to be where they are on the defensive boards. They don't have the elite size/run/jump/fast twitch big man so they have to do it the old fashioned way.

FWIW team generally under-performs their own baseline with Porzingis in the game on the defensive boards.

[CoP]

Regarding this team in the clutch, I think anyone who has watched them all season would have some concerns. And I think the default settings for clutch time on nba.com don't tell the whole story. There is reason to be concerned about this team's clutch-time offense.

The default settings for clutch are last 5 minutes, game within 5. Their TS% there is 62.2%, good for 5th best in the league. Looks great.

But the more you shrink the margin and the time left, the worse the Celtics offense looks:

- Last 4 minutes, margin of 4 or less: 57% TS (13th)
- Last 3 minutes, margin of 3 or less: 53.2% (17th)
- Last 2 minutes, margin of 3 or less: 57.6% (12th)
- Last minute, margin of 3 or less: 45.1% (25th)
- Last 30 seconds, margin of 3 or less: 43.4% (27th)
- Last 10 seconds, margin of 3 or less: 24.4% (last)

Their offense has been really bad on those last possession-type games this season. Sample size isn't huge but it's not tiny either - 17 games on that last bullet point.

I am anticipating that as the Celtics get deeper into the playoffs, the competition will get more difficult and the games will get tighter. And the above does worry me. It's probably the one thing that worries me about this team.

[chrisab123]

I prefer Miami in the 1st rnd than the Sixers.

If the Celtics play Miami in the 1st round, the Celtics are probably going home. If the Celtics play the Sixers they'll spank them in 5. Let someone else play Miami, Miami owns Brown and Tatum.

[KillahGhostface]

I prefer Miami in the 1st rnd than the Sixers.

If the Celtics play Miami in the 1st round, the Celtics are probably going home. If the Celtics play the Sixers they'll spank them in 5. Let someone else play Miami, Miami owns Brown and Tatum.

Lmao

Okay.

[Fierce1]

If Cs can't beat Miami this time around then the Cs don't deserve to be champs.

[chrisab123]

I prefer Miami in the 1st rnd than the Sixers.

If the Celtics play Miami in the 1st round, the Celtics are probably going home. If the Celtics play the Sixers they'll spank them in 5. Let someone else play Miami, Miami owns Brown and Tatum.

Lmao

Okay.

Where's the lie? We said the same **** in the ECF and what happened?

The Heat want to play the Celtics in the playoffs, and for good reason.

[shackles10]

If the Celtics play Miami in the 1st round, the Celtics are probably going home. If the Celtics play the Sixers they'll spank them in 5. Let someone else play Miami, Miami owns Brown and Tatum.

Lmao

Okay.

Where's the lie? We said the same **** in the ECF and what happened?

The Heat want to play the Celtics in the playoffs, and for good reason.

The Heat want to just make the playoffs. They're in no position to care about matchups. A lot has changed since last year for us and them as well. We've swept them this year and regardless of past history with different lineups I'd rather play the less talented Heat we've swept this year than the Sixers who aren't a play-in team if Embiid isn't hurt for so long. We should beat either, but if I'm picking a matchup and the victory would be oh so sweet as well.

[Hal14]

If the Celtics play Miami in the 1st round, the Celtics are probably going home. If the Celtics play the Sixers they'll spank them in 5. Let someone else play Miami, Miami owns Brown and Tatum.

Lmao

Okay.

Where's the lie? We said the same **** in the ECF and what happened?

The Heat want to play the Celtics in the playoffs, and for good reason.

Heat beat boston in 7 in 2023.

Boston beat heat in 7 in 2022.

Neither of them "owns" the other.

And the teams have played 0 playoff series with Porzingis and Jrue on the celtics. Boston also no longer has a rookie HC (they had a rookie HC in the 2023 and 2022 ECF), they now have a beefed up assistant coaching staff, with assistants that Joe handpicked rather than Joe having to coach with Ime's guys for assistants.

Boston is 4-0 vs Miami this season.

[chrisab123]

Lmao

Okay.

Where's the lie? We said the same **** in the ECF and what happened?

The Heat want to play the Celtics in the playoffs, and for good reason.

Heat beat boston in 7 in 2023.

Boston beat heat in 7 in 2022.

Neither of them "owns" the other.

And the teams have played 0 playoff series with Porzingis and Jrue on the celtics. Boston also no longer has a rookie HC (they had a rookie HC in the 2023 and 2022 ECF), they now have a beefed up assistant coaching staff, with assistants that Joe handpicked rather than Joe having to coach with Ime's guys for assistants.

Boston is 4-0 vs Miami this season.

2020 was in the Bubble but the Heat beat Boston then too. So I'd certainly say the Heat owns them. You bring up a good point regarding the assistants, however, there is a massive gap between Spo and Joe.

[Hal14]

Where's the lie? We said the same **** in the ECF and what happened?

The Heat want to play the Celtics in the playoffs, and for good reason.

Heat beat boston in 7 in 2023.

Boston beat heat in 7 in 2022.

Neither of them "owns" the other.

And the teams have played 0 playoff series with Porzingis and Jrue on the celtics. Boston also no longer has a rookie HC (they had a rookie HC in the 2023 and 2022 ECF), they now have a beefed up assistant coaching staff, with assistants that Joe handpicked rather than Joe having to coach with Ime's guys for assistants.

Boston is 4-0 vs Miami this season.

2020 was in the Bubble but the Heat beat Boston then too. So I'd certainly say the Heat owns them. You bring up a good point regarding the assistants, however, there is a massive gap between Spo and Joe.

So 2 series wins to 1..that seems really close..certainly doesn't seem like 1 team owns the other.

Not to mention the Jays were basically babies in the bubble - they were only 22 and 23 yrs old. And they had a completely different supporting cast in 2020..literally the entire team is different for Boston now than it was in the bubble (besides the Jays). All that's left for Miami is Bam, Butler, Herro & Robinson so their team is very different too. That was 2 coaching staff's ago for Boston.

Not to mention Kemba and Hayward were both injured in that series, while Miami was completely healthy. A healthy celtics team likely wins that series.

[BK_2020]

Regarding this team in the clutch, I think anyone who has watched them all season would have some concerns. And I think the default settings for clutch time on nba.com don't tell the whole story. There is reason to be concerned about this team's clutch-time offense.

The default settings for clutch are last 5 minutes, game within 5. Their TS% there is 62.2%, good for 5th best in the league. Looks great.

But the more you shrink the margin and the time left, the worse the Celtics offense looks:

- Last 4 minutes, margin of 4 or less: 57% TS (13th)
- Last 3 minutes, margin of 3 or less: 53.2% (17th)
- Last 2 minutes, margin of 3 or less: 57.6% (12th)
- Last minute, margin of 3 or less: 45.1% (25th)
- Last 30 seconds, margin of 3 or less: 43.4% (27th)
- Last 10 seconds, margin of 3 or less: 24.4% (last)

Their offense has been really bad on those last possession-type games this season. Sample size isn't huge but it's not tiny either - 17 games on that last bullet point.

I am anticipating that as the Celtics get deeper into the playoffs, the competition will get more difficult and the games will get tighter. And the above does worry me. It's probably the one thing that worries me about this team.

How helpful is data from a sample of like 100 seconds? The answer is not at all.

[He_Got_Game]

I just don't see a scenario where this team loses to Miami. They are a full tier or two better than Miami. I just don't see it this year there is just too much shooting on the roster now. The only team that concerns me is Milwaukee.

[Parliament10]

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[165bows]

Regarding this team in the clutch, I think anyone who has watched them all season would have some concerns. And I think the default settings for clutch time on nba.com don't tell the whole story. There is reason to be concerned about this team's clutch-time offense.

The default settings for clutch are last 5 minutes, game within 5. Their TS% there is 62.2%, good for 5th best in the league. Looks great.

But the more you shrink the margin and the time left, the worse the Celtics offense looks:

- Last 4 minutes, margin of 4 or less: 57% TS (13th)
- Last 3 minutes, margin of 3 or less: 53.2% (17th)
- Last 2 minutes, margin of 3 or less: 57.6% (12th)
- Last minute, margin of 3 or less: 45.1% (25th)
- Last 30 seconds, margin of 3 or less: 43.4% (27th)
- Last 10 seconds, margin of 3 or less: 24.4% (last)

Their offense has been really bad on those last possession-type games this season. Sample size isn't huge but it's not tiny either - 17 games on that last bullet point.

I am anticipating that as the Celtics get deeper into the playoffs, the competition will get more difficult and the games will get tighter. And the above does worry me. It's probably the one thing that worries me about this team.

How helpful is data from a sample of like 100 seconds? The answer is not at all.

Plus it prob isolates out the majority of the best opponents.

Still not nothing though unfortunately.

[CoP]

Regarding this team in the clutch, I think anyone who has watched them all season would have some concerns. And I think the default settings for clutch time on nba.com don't tell the whole story. There is reason to be concerned about this team's clutch-time offense.

The default settings for clutch are last 5 minutes, game within 5. Their TS% there is 62.2%, good for 5th best in the league. Looks great.

But the more you shrink the margin and the time left, the worse the Celtics offense looks:

- Last 4 minutes, margin of 4 or less: 57% TS (13th)
- Last 3 minutes, margin of 3 or less: 53.2% (17th)
- Last 2 minutes, margin of 3 or less: 57.6% (12th)
- Last minute, margin of 3 or less: 45.1% (25th)
- Last 30 seconds, margin of 3 or less: 43.4% (27th)
- Last 10 seconds, margin of 3 or less: 24.4% (last)

Their offense has been really bad on those last possession-type games this season. Sample size isn't huge but it's not tiny either - 17 games on that last bullet point.

I am anticipating that as the Celtics get deeper into the playoffs, the competition will get more difficult and the games will get tighter. And the above does worry me. It's probably the one thing that worries me about this team.

How helpful is data from a sample of like 100 seconds? The answer is not at all.

Not at all is incorrect. For sure, you should always take sample size into account, but that doesn't mean it's not insightful. They've had 12 FGAs in last-possession type opportunities this season, and have made one shot. That sample size isn't large enough to make a prediction with absolute certainty about their chance of success in similar situations going forward, but it is definitely large enough to justify some concern.

[Hal14]

I just don't see a scenario where this team loses to Miami. They are a full tier or two better than Miami. I just don't see it this year there is just too much shooting on the roster now.

Agreed. We're a 3 pt shooting team..and we went from Smart to Jrue. From Time Lord to KP. Those are BIG shooting upgrades.

We had Brogdon with a bum elbow vs Miami.

We had Grant who had a hand injury vs Miami.

Al out of nowhere has the worst shooting series of his career (this year's team is now less reliant on Al.. he was 5h on the team in FGA in the miami series but this season is 8th)

And we had 2 elite shooters (Hauser, Pritchard) riding the bench..

[BK_2020]

Regarding this team in the clutch, I think anyone who has watched them all season would have some concerns. And I think the default settings for clutch time on nba.com don't tell the whole story. There is reason to be concerned about this team's clutch-time offense.

The default settings for clutch are last 5 minutes, game within 5. Their TS% there is 62.2%, good for 5th best in the league. Looks great.

But the more you shrink the margin and the time left, the worse the Celtics offense looks:

- Last 4 minutes, margin of 4 or less: 57% TS (13th)
- Last 3 minutes, margin of 3 or less: 53.2% (17th)
- Last 2 minutes, margin of 3 or less: 57.6% (12th)
- Last minute, margin of 3 or less: 45.1% (25th)
- Last 30 seconds, margin of 3 or less: 43.4% (27th)
- Last 10 seconds, margin of 3 or less: 24.4% (last)

Their offense has been really bad on those last possession-type games this season. Sample size isn't huge but it's not tiny either - 17 games on that last bullet point.

I am anticipating that as the Celtics get deeper into the playoffs, the competition will get more difficult and the games will get tighter. And the above does worry me. It's probably the one thing that worries me about this team.

How helpful is data from a sample of like 100 seconds? The answer is not at all.

Not at all is incorrect. For sure, you should always take sample size into account, but that doesn't mean it's not insightful. They've had 12 FGAs in last-possession type opportunities this season, and have made one shot. That sample size isn't large enough to make a prediction with absolute certainty about their chance of success in similar situations going forward, but it is definitely large enough to justify some concern.

We are just saying I'm right you are wrong. Without running the maths we don't actually know whether sample size of 12 is meaningless or slightly above meaningless. What we can say for sure is that it's far far more likely to be meaningless than as meaningful as you people are making it out to be.

[CoP]

^^^^^^

Sure fam