Robinson Cano vs. Dustin Pedroia

[Chach]

Um, that post was from like the second page of the thread, of which you've already responded to. I'm assuming that you quoted for purposes of bringing it back to shove in BBJ's face because Cano is hitting well over .300 after a slow start.

He started off slow, not hitting over .280 for the first three months of the season, but has been on fire since July hitting over .380. Well his BABIP was below league average for the first few months so you can assume bad luck has finally caught up with him. And in July, when he hit .380, his BABIP has shot through the roof to previously higher than league average norms. His season BABIP is standing at a robust .343 yet his LD% has actually dropped to 16.3%, several points below last season's level. He's also dropped off a bit in his HR/FB% with his actual flyball percentage going up. So what does this mean? He's putting more balls into play that are not hit hard on the nose and they are falling in for hits. I don't see Cano finishing this season above .300 unless he stays extremely lucky from here on out. mahalo
~Chach~

[cmaff051]

Whatever you say.

[Chach]

Then please explain to me, oh wise one, how a player can have a well above average BABIP while having a declining LD% and not chalk it up to luck? mahalo
~Chach~

[cmaff051]

Then please explain to me, oh wise one, how a player can have a well above average BABIP while having a declining LD% and not chalk it up to luck? mahalo
~Chach~

I'd like for you to apply this same comparision to other second basemen, such as, namely, Dustin Pedroia.

[Chach]

Sure, Pedroia's line drive rate is too low for him to continue to hit .320. If he boosts his LD% to 20 or higher, OK maybe he can do it. Guys like Manny are able to maintain a higher than average BABIP because 1)he's a great hitter but 2)he's a disciplined batter who swings at pitches he can hit hard. Manny consistently has a line drive rate over 20% and a BB% of 12-18% over the past few years. This season he stands at 13.3%BB, 21.5% and .325 BABIP with a regular average of .297 thus far. I think Manny's drop in average can be explained by a lower BABIP that is the result of a lower HR/FB%. But historically, he maintains an insane BABIP because he is patient at the plate and doesn't swing at garbage often.

Pedroia is in the same mold and that helps explain him defying his BABIP. His BB% is over 10%, which is almost double Cano's, and his K% is under 10%, which is 33% less than Cano's. Both have similar LD% and BABIP and I do expect Pedroia's average to drop a bit unless his LD% increases. But Pedroia's patience at the plate leads me to believe he is more likely to sustain a higher than average BABIP over Cano because, by rarely taking a walk he's swinging at a lot of pitches and not making as solid contact as he could. This means he's looping a lot of balls into the OF or squeaking them through the IF. Unless Cano drastically improves either his LD% or his BB%, I don't see him being a regular .300 hitter. Pedroia can probably just break the .300 regularly because of his walk rate. mahalo
~Chach~

[Basketball Jesus]

Whoops. He must have had a lot of luck two years in a row. Maybe he is just a good hitter??? Just maybe???

Who said he wasn't? I just said last season's average was lucky, that's all.

[cmaff051]

Sure, Pedroia's line drive rate is too low for him to continue to hit .320.

End of story.

If he boosts his LD% to 20 or higher, OK maybe he can do it.

Agreed. So let's just say that both Cano and Pedroia are "lucky" to hit .300 and leave it at that and stop making stuff up. Ok?

[Chach]

No, Cano is lucky to be a .300 hitter. Pedroia is lucky to be a .320 hitter. Pedroia's secondary skills allow him to hit .300 with a higher than league average BABIP. Cano will not be able to hit .300 without a high BABIP and his secondary skills seem to point to a high BABIP relying on luck.

I will never pretend to be an expert on this stuff, I simply know more than your average baseball fan. So if you are more informed and understand these numbers better than I, please give me details of the errors in my analysis. I am always open to listening to logic and reasonable explanations so I will gladly listen to what you would bring to the table if you take the time to explain your point out more. mahalo
~Chach~

[cmaff051]

Cano hits the ball hard. He is going to have a high BABIP. That's where your "logic" falls on deaf ears. He's hit .300 all 3 of his years in the majors, and you are saying that he will be lucky to hit .300? Sounds like sour grapes to me.

Cano has been much more selective lately also. Look at his walk numbers since the All Star break.

[Chach]

Cano has been much more selective lately also. Look at his walk numbers since the All Star break.

Which is exactly what I said has to happen for him to maintain a good average. Nobody hits the ball hard everytime. Some players (perhaps Cano is one of them) hits the ball hard more often than not and at a higher rate than most players. But you can hit the ball hard into the ground, or into the air, and give defenders a chance to get to it. You can argue that he hits a lot of line drives but the numbers simply point out that he does not. That, in fact, Pedroia hits more line drives than Cano. This is where your "logic" fails. He doesn't hit enough line drives to support an abnormal BABIP and he doesn't walk enough either. If he becomes more selective at the plate (as you suggest), then when he does swing he will swing hard at good pitches and his line drive rate will go up. We will wait and see if that happens.

"He hits the ball hard" wasn't exactly what I was asking for when I asked for you to expand my horizons when discussing this topic. You seemed to have razzed BBJ pretty well when he brought up BABIP the first time so I had assumed that you had a decent understanding of the stats and their interdependence. But since he busted out his stats, you've remained mum on the issue, and been simply a contrarian. I have a basic understanding of these facts and stats but I am open to learning considerably more. I was partly hoping you could educate me a bit more on the topic but your hesitancy leads me to believe that 1)you DON'T know what the hell you're talking about, 2)you don't know much more than I do and have nothing to offer to the discussion, hence you are leaving it alone or 3)you do understand the numbers but failed to look at them before you started the debate and when Jesus busted them out, you realized you were wrong and will just cling to your "he hits the ball hard" lines. I really hope you are example #4, that you're too busy to explain these things right now but that you promise to get back to me at a later time. mahalo
~Chach~

[cmaff051]

I have a good understanding of how BABIP works, but I only use it for pitchers. As I have said multiple times, using BABIP for a hitter is absolutely pointless. I am done with this discussion, Cano has shown his entire career that he can hit .300 and I don't expect that to change. If by the end of the year his average is below .300, I owe you a beer.

[Chach]

Except his entire minor league career. He hit .300 for a season once (in AA) and then hit well in the month prior to being promoted to the bigs for good. He hit under .300 in 2005, destroyed the ball in 2006, and has been under .300 for much of 2007. If he finishes with an average over .300, I owe you a beer. mahalo
~Chach~

[cmaff051]

Except his entire minor league career. He hit .300 for a season once (in AA) and then hit well in the month prior to being promoted to the bigs for good. He hit under .300 in 2005, destroyed the ball in 2006, and has been under .300 for much of 2007. If he finishes with an average over .300, I owe you a beer. mahalo
~Chach~

He hit under .300 in 2005? Only if you want to play strawman. For all intents and purposes, he hit .300.

Using his minor league stats as a be-all-end-all for what he is going to do in the majors is laughable. You can use it as a guideline, but Cano has gotten stronger, he has got more selective, and he has became a better overalll hitter.

I'm done with this, you are using walk stats and your own selective reasoning to say that Pedroia can be a .300 hitter and Cano can't. It doesn't work that way.

Besides, I consider what Pedroia is doing right now to be his absolute upside. An .800 OPS guy. Cano has the power and the swing to be a .900 OPS guy in this league, IMO.

I'm done.

[nykgeneralmanager]

Who really gives a crap about BABIP and LD%. All of us here watch enough baseball to understand that Cano is an excellent hitter and he drives the ball to all fields, and he is good enough to hit .300 on a yearly basis. So if he hits .320 he is lucky, if he hits .270 he is unlucky...blah blah. In his rookie season this could've been an argument, but at this point we've all seen enough to know the guy is a legit hitter. Once he reaches his power potential, he'll be a 2B with a .900 OPS. Luck doesn't get you that far.

[Chach]

Dude, no one saying he isn't a legit hitter. No one is saying that he can't hit 25 HRs. Cano is still a very young player and while he certainly can develop, a lot of what you are going to do with young players is project what they will do. Stats like BABIP and LD% are indicators of how a players will project in the future and unless Cano improves his walk rate, he's going to have a lot more .280 seasons than .300. And it's not a matter of lucky and unlucky, it's a matter of being lucky and regressing to your natural talent base. His walk rate in July was around 6.4%, it's a minor improvement over his season total but not enough to explain his abnormal BABIP. This is going to lead his BA to regress to lower levels and this will impact all his other stats as well. So if he only ends up hitting .270-.280, he can survive because his power will hopefully develop and carry him. But stats like BABIP, along with other stats, can help predict what a player will do in the future.

cmaff, I do agree with you on Pedroia, that this is probably his peak. I think he could hit for double digit HRs a few times but he isn't going to be Jeff Kent like I saw some compare him to (I nearly passed out from laughing so hard at that comp, and the guy wasn't even a Red Sox fan!). The kid has one of the ugliest swings I've ever seen but he has a great eye and great hand eye coordination that I think he will be a productive player throughout his career. But I don't see him developing like Robby can still develop (especially his power and his plate discpline). mahalo
~Chach~

[34Celtic]

CAno has a better chance of hitting .330 every year of his career then 25 HR every year of his career. Its just the type of swing he has, that and the face that he seems to heat up in the second half of the year like he has been in the microwave from April to July just waiting for someone to let him out.

[KnickTerp12]

Cano leads all AL 2B in RBI. Oh yeah ... he bats 7th.

[KnickTerp12]

but but but his BABIP and LD% he's just lucky

[Chach]

You realize that RBIs are a matter of luck as well, right? If he were batting third on the Pirates, he wouldn't have as many RBIs as he does hitting 7th on the Yankees. He's playing on the top offense in baseball and has TONS of guys on base in front of him, giving him a chance to knock runs in. mahalo
~Chach~

[34Celtic]

You realize that RBIs are a matter of luck as well, right? If he were batting third on the Pirates, he wouldn't have as many RBIs as he does hitting 7th on the Yankees. He's playing on the top offense in baseball and has TONS of guys on base in front of him, giving him a chance to knock runs in. mahalo
~Chach~

Once again, the arguement is he better than Pedroia? Yes he is. Its not that hard to see. Cano will hit .310-.320 year in and year out with 80 RBI and 15 HR and 25-30 2B.