Road to a Championship start here, 2022 Draft.

[Whole Truth]

Recap. To compliment a Zion build. Perimeter defense is the #1 priority over rim protection. With teams zoning Zion, an offensive C that can step out is more important than a guard shooting 42% from 3. Team were giving NO's open looks to take the paint away & living with the result. Allen not even taking 3's means there's no pick your poison. They will know who to play off of to pack the paint. AD mentioned this with Nance on multiple occasions. Hence the -6 rating despite Nance being solid defensively & he could actually hit an open 3. Teams just opted to play off of him. At least Allen would improve the rebounding over Nance.

The defensive C with CJ had a -6.5 rating
The offensive C with CJ had a +1.5 rating
The offensive C with Daniels elite perimeter defense had a +20 rating

Deciding to go with a C like Allen who doesn't even attempt 3's. NO's fans will find a new appreciation for Jonas. Cavs play 4 out with Allen, they don't get zoned like NO's. Allen's effectiveness is at the rim. Jonas altered his post game to take more mid range & 3's

Jonas with Daniels elite perimeter defense starting was +20 in 10 games, 100 minutes, in a strong part of the schedule. An efficient offensive C that could step out, hit the occasional mid range & 3 combined with a defensive PG with 12% usage rate had the best result with Zion. It will be hard to find a guard that will shoot better than 42% from 3 on 8 APG like CJ did this past season. Even harder to find one who can defend & play make, so NO's will have to prioritize the guards skillset to maximize Zion on both ends.

Moving BI's creation & playmaking ability for Murphy's spacing changes the equation. The PG will need to be a secondary option to Zion & paired with a defensive C like everyone wants, that has no offense outside of 5 feet, he better be able to shoot as well. Both Murray & Garland played off of Young & DM averaged 6-7 3;s a game at 37%. Will Young who was the primary with a career low 30% usage rate play off of Zion ? if not, Young will reduce Zion's usage, efficiency & overall worth as a VOLUME efficient player

Daniels - 12% usage, 5 APG (5pts), 30% 3pt shooting on 2 APG (Elite defender) +20 100 minutes

CJ' - 25% usage, 16 APG (20pts), 42% 3pt shooting on 8 APG (Poor defender) - 6.5 140 minutes with Defensive C

Young' - 30% usage rate, 19 APG (25pts), 37% shooting on 7.1 APG (Arguably, worse defender then CJ)

[Whole Truth]

I see Pels are interested in trading for Mitchell. I like him but not for NO's though I know everyone wants that big name to pair with Zion. He's played with Gobert & 2 defensive big men, in Utah & Cavs. His defense is questionable as is his loyalty. One bad season & he may be asking out.

I'd work with Atlanta, expand the deal to land (Murray, OO & the #1 pick). With (DM & Allen) going to Atlanta. I realize Cavs may want Daniels if not Herb in this deal. This is where CJ's 42% shooting on 8 APG, flipped to Magic who need spacing for Suggs would come in handy either as a substitute trade option or replacement. Magic have several defensive guards remaining to compliment CJ's spacing ability. Better yet if NO's can net Carter .. even if it requires additional pick value. He'd most likely end up in Cleveland as Mobley's backup.

OO has range in his game, so he'd be a better offensive fit than Allen when teams zone Zion. He also has better switch ability, the way Green wants to defend vs drop coverage & is ready to start on a reasonable contract & control. Despite being undersized, he can also rebound.

Select Sarr with the #1 pick to develop behind OO for quality depth & to raise the ceiling. If he develops as expected, NO's can turn over OO's value as he's young & still improving.

As my posts have been showing. An elite defensive guard in Daniels, with a 12% usage rate, 5ppg & 30% 3pt shooting had the best 2 man pairing with Zion. Where Zion's defensive compensation is concerned, ball pressure > rim protection. Murray's defense is a downgrade from Daniels but upgrade from CJ or any of the listed targets, including DM. His offensive spacing, is a clear upgrade from Daniels but downgrade from CJ. He takes 7 3's a game at a 37% clip with no paint gravity, so he's both willing and effective enough. It helps Murphy will be in for his deep spacing over BI. (Would like to see/know Murray's % of open to defended attempts in relation to CJ)

OO, Murray & Sarr is a combined 50-60m for 3 quality players vs 1. Both Murray, OO have 4 yrs control & Sarr is on rookie scale/control. A more stable situation as well as cap control. If Daniels is kept or replaced by Suggs who's also young & improving. Any offensive progress, Murray's value & value contract could also be turned over.

[Whole Truth]

Cavs are supposedly shopping Allen because he can't coexist with Mobley. My question to those NO fans that want Allen. Why are Cavs opting to keep the stretch 5 over Allen when teams don't zone them the way they do Zion ?.

lol, good luck with the vertical spacing. The 2yrs control & upcoming salary bump from 20m if he even opts to stay in free agency.

Spurs rumored to have more interest in Garland than Young to pair with their star big man.

[Whole Truth]

With a core of Zion, BI & Herb starting

Jonas & CJ +1.2 423 minutes
Nance & CJ -6.5 149 minutes
Jonas & Daniels +20.2 100 minutes

With Nance & Murphy over Jonas & BI. Where NO's want to replace Jonas with a defensive C & move Murphy into the starting rotation so they don't have to extend BI to 50m

Nance - Zion - Murphy - Herb - CJ +10. 100 minutes.

This has NO's telling themselves with Murphy's spacing they can make a rim runner work with CJ or an upgrade (young) to CJ, can they ?

Nance - Zion - Murphy - Marshall - Jose +30 80 minutes
Jonas - Zion - BI - Herb - Daniels +20 100 minutes
Nance - Zion - Murphy - Herb - CJ +10 100 minutes

IMO, they probably could but would it be the best way to maximize Zion ?

Watching these top lineups with 80 minutes or more, what is the key factor in the higher net gains?

Usage & ball pressure. The lower the role players usage & increased defensive pressure, the higher the ranking.

The top lineup features Nance, Murphy, Marshall & Jose... all role players, 2 of which effectively pressures the ball as well as bring some intensity. & energy. 2nd best lineup has Daniels 12% usage, 5 points on 5 APG, replacing CJ's 25% usage & 16 APG with his elite man defense, ball pressure & no effective spacing. Note - the 2nd lineup with Daniels faced the toughest SOS of the 3 in his 10 games started.

IMO - NO's need to target a guard that can defend, pressure the ball, first & foremost. Without BI, someone who can play make & create without being high usage. Capable of & willing to hit an open 3. Of the targets listed all things considered court to cap, to fit with Zion = (Murray > Garland > Young).

If NO's took BI's 15 APG out for Murphy & CJ, with Jonas +.4 in 140 minutes
If NO's took CJ's 16 APG out for Daniels 12% usage, with Jonas +20.2 in 100 minutes
If NO's took BI's 13 APG out for Murphy & CJ, with Nance +10 in 140 minutes

Nance is a defensive C with vertical spacing, the best achieved with him, is with Murphy & CJ's spacing. CJ shot 42% on 8 APG better than any target listed. Dall short of that, What happens to the spacing with the defensive C that chooses not to take any 3's. Nance was hitting 1 out of 2 open APG for most the season. Going the route of offensive compliments & spacing is doubling down on what went wrong this season. Young is 30$ usage, 19 APG with arguably worse defense than CJ.

NO's best lineup all be it a 80 minute sample size. Is a Zion centric offense with defensive compensation & capable, not elite or spacing threats outside of Murphy. What happens to a Zion centric offense when you implement a higher usage guard than CJ in Young ?

NO's 2nd best lineup in 100 minutes against the top of the west. Had BI as a secondary play maker creator with a 25% usage rate & 15 APG at 45% efficiency, paired with Daniels elite defense & zero spacing. Take BI out for Murphy's elite spacing, +.4 with CJ's 25% usage rate & 16 APG at 45% efficiency. Why? BI's & Daniels defense vs Murphy & CJ's defense. The pairing of Murphy & CJ's defense gets a bump when Nance replaces Jonas +10 140 minutes. When NO's paired BI with Daniels elite ball pressure & 12% usage, ZIon with BI were capable of a +20 net rating with no rim protector (Ball pressure). Same as the top lineup with Jose. What does Jose do? he picks up full court & pressures the ball. All the NO fans claiming Jonas was holding back the top 6 defensive ranking, lol, Jonas has now been apart of 3 separate non PO teams when joined to accomplish a top 5 defensive rating with him starting based in (Efficiency & rebounding) which CJ negatively offsets. Nance who's a defensive vertical spacer kind of worked with Murphy's deep spacing replacing BI & CJ's 42% on 8 APG career high season.

A vertical spacer will be an issue if NO's see any regression from either or both Herb & CJ or his potential replacement. If NO's want to compliment ZIon defensively it's best he has a C that can space the paint & ball pressure than defensive vertical spacing & no ball pressure.

[Whole Truth]

Supposedly, Hawks considering Risacher as the #1 pick. A 6-10 forward, who can shoot. Lower floor than Sarr but seems like the kind of pick a team that doesn't want to wait on projection or development would make with no clear #1. More of a 4, small ball 5 & better fit with Okongwu out the gate.

If Washington is interested in BI, that #2 is looking better in light of this news. Hawks may even want to trade down out of paying the #1 pick 12m.

Sarr needs offensive development. Zion is still only 23, despite wanting to win now. Younger than SGA when OKC kicked off their rebuild.

[Whole Truth]

Washington - (Kuzma, Deni, #2) for (BI, #21)

Hawks - (Murray, #1) for (Kuzma, Deni, #2 Risarcher, NO's/Lakers 25)

NO - (BI, #21, Lakers/NO's 25) for (Murray, Hunter, #1 Sarr)


(CJ) to Magic for one of (Isaac or Carter & expiring value/cap space)


Sarr - (Isaac/Carter)
Zion - Nance
Murphy - Hunter
Herb - Daniels/Hawkins
Murray - Jose/Daniels

[TGW]

There's no way the Wizards would trade Deni, Kuzma, and #2 for Ingram (and the Hawks wouldn't do that either). You have a warped view of the value of the Pelican's players.

[Whole Truth]

There's no way the Wizards would trade Deni, Kuzma, and #2 for Ingram (and the Hawks wouldn't do that either). You have a warped view of the value of the Pelican's players.

That Wizards trade actually came from a Wizards link on another Pels forum. I just reposted.

The Hawks swap is mine.

Hawks are in the luxury tax with the #1 pick representing 12m. An unexpected gift & cost. They have been rumored to like Risarcher at #1. If they know the Pels want Sarr. I have them swapping 1 for 2, purely for financial gain & Hawk benefit of not having to pay 12m for their rumored preferred target at 1.

My trade is basically BI, Lakers pick for Murray & to ensure preference, which I assume Hawks will leverage in trade if the rumors of them liking Risarcher are true. They will be able to net him at 2 at a lower price point & get a future draft pick in a stronger draft that has lotto potential.

Unless of course you think Hawks value Murray higher than BI. I have #2 for #1 where Hawks get their preferred target at a lower cost & an additional draft pick in 25 which has lotto potential. Hunter who's often injured is on a 4yr deal, I have him down as Hawks shedding salary, if you think Hunter is value in trade, I'd be more willing to take Capela's 2yr contract instead.

[Whole Truth]

If Trajan was behind the CJ trade & extension. I would have let him go too.

Sub 500 win team on the upswing trades for a flawed max player on the wrong side of his career capping the team out & stunts this teams growth to Play in, Play off fodder & stalled development. As a result of that trade, the team needs a soft reset apposed to a lateral trade to get the train back on track. Fix back the collapsed ceiling.

Fortunately, Zion is still only 23/24. Where a soft reset would be easier to hit on high end complimentary players than a Star, which Pels already have. If Zion wants to contend, a veteran C on a 2yr deal would bridge a development gap.

Alex Sarr would be my primary goal as he fits what Green wants to do defensively out the gate & as his floor. He shot 30% from 3 on low volume, has a 70% FT shooting rate & Pels supposedly have one of the best 3pt shooting coaches, where he has the offensive potential to be a defensive floor spacer as his potential ceiling. Not something you can effectively trade for without trading proven value for development risk.

[Whole Truth]

Pels fans that want to pair Trae with Zion make the Giannis, Dame comparison in the hope Zion & Trae would fare better.

Offensively, there's a lot of similarities. Both Zion & Giannis are efficient post threats with little to no diversity in their games leading to an offensive predictability. As a result of that predictability, Bucks failing against the Raptors Box 1. Bud opted to put the ball in Middletons hands with the 2 way (defensive) guard Jrue, where they won their ring. Swapping the 2 way (defensive) guard for Dame (still with Middleton), like Trae, is every bit the offensive creating, deep spacing threat & supposed clutch player that Jrue supposedly isn't. Which bring me to the last similarity. Most thought the IDEA of Dame & Giannis offensively, would dominate. The exact idea Pels are telling themselves with Trae & Zion, except ...

Where does this idea lose similarity for better or worse ?

Defensively, at best Trae is equal to Dame as a point of attack defender, where it's debatable, he's most likely the worse defender of the 4 players, including CJ. Zion has shown defensive flashes when in shape. When not, he takes plays off & players can walk by him. Giannis on the other hand is a + defender & rebounder, with a high motor, where there's no debate, he's the best defender of the 4 players.

So basically, an offensive pairing that people thought would set the league on fire but didn't, gets a considerable defensive downgrade. The fact that CJ shot 42% from 3 on volume with the worse 2 man pairing with Zion, should speak to this ... Pels need a defender at point, preferably a 2 way guard over a scoring guard.

Granted Bucks didn't have Herb's defense to pair Dame with & a potential rim protecting upgrade but if CJ's 42% spacing & arguable better defense than Trae, is any indication.

Nance - Zion - BI - Herb - CJ (-6.5) 140 mins, with a defensive C
Jonas - Zion - BI - Herb - CJ (+1.2) 423 mins, with an offensive C

Zion - BI - Herb - CJ (-3.5) 625 mins, with an offensive guard
Zion - BI - Herb - Jonas (+6.5) 605 mins, with an offensive C
Zion - Murphy - Herb - CJ (+3.3) 357 mins, offensive guard with additional spacing threat - BI's usage.

Zion - CJ (+0.5) 1350 mins, offensive guard
Zion - Daniels (+9.2) 480 mins, defensive guard
Zion - Jonas (+4.4) 1040 mins, offensive centre
Zion - Nance (-1.2) 740 mins, defensive centre

Every iteration of the lineups with Zion, indicate he faired better with an offensive C & defensive guard. Jonas restructured his post game to shoot mid range shots & take more 3's, to help space the court, had the best starters 2 man pairing with Zion outside of the games Daniels started. CJ restructured his shooting to fit offensively, taking 16 APG on 25% usage, shooting 42% from 3 on volume, he boast the worse 2 man pairing with Zion. Daniels 12% usage, 30% 3pt shooting on low volume & elite man defense has the best 2 man pairing with Zion. Giannis who's a similar offensive player but better defender than Zion, won with a 2 way guard & the SF running action.

Ideally, Daniels elite man defense & improved 3 point shooting paired with Herb is the teams solution at point but his development has been stunted by CJ starting. Pels had opportunity to continue playing Daniels when CJ went down earlier in the season but opted not to. Daniels was holding his own against the top of the West. Pels win loss record was no indication of that lineup with Daniels (+20 100 mins). They were getting weak bench play with up to 3-4 rotation players injured. Not one game lost by more than 2 possessions because there's more consistency in Daniels defense, than CJ's spacing.

[Whole Truth]

Hawks now being linked to having some interest in Clingan at #1. The last 2 players of interest show a team that doesn't want to rebuild but get out the box production. Which makes sense with them not owning their draft for the next 3 yrs. Unless, they get control of their draft back from the Spurs, which is unlikely. They probably avoid projects & development in a draft with no sure fire #1.

If NO's lucked into getting someone like Sarr that fits what Green wants to do defensively with the offensive potential to space the floor which Allen doesn't have among his benefit of rookie scale & control. I expect he will struggle with teams zoning Zion out the gate despite his rim running & vertical spacing.

Using BI to target Sarr's defense & offensive potential on rookie scale over someone like Allen also has an allowance to potentially bring CJ's 30 m off the bench. I'd suggest to resign Jonas but Green doesn't know how or want to use an offensive big man.

[Whole Truth]

Trae tweeted out "this is why Pacers got Pascal"

Shots fired.

Having lucked into the value of the #1 pick, Hawks trading Young is admitting he's not worth building around.

[Whole Truth]

Stats are only useful in the right context. A poster points out Okongwu's unimpressive numbers. With Isaac toping his list.

Factor the Magic have strong guard & wing defensive rotation, it will help boost Isaac's numbers as good a defender he is. Factor Atlanta have poor defenders, especially with Trae & OKongwu's numbers will suffer.

Watch what happens when you compare Centre's from the same team..

Magic -
Isaac 47.7
Carter 59.6

Hawks
Capela 58.7
Okongwu 59.7

Notice the separation based on the surrounding team, Isaac >>>>>> Carter, Capeka = Okongwu.

Isolate the talent, in order = Isaac > Okongwu > Capela > Carter.

If NO's go shopping for a C using raw stats they will flop in their search. So many factors play in.

[Whole Truth]

Atlanta Von/King Ken show suggests Atlanta trades - the 2 notable ones for me are the following.

- Murray & Capela for Isaac Magic 24th
- Trade down from #1 for Brogdon, #7 & #14

Pels link posts a trade with Kings & Spurs for Barnes, Collins, #8, Kings 2027, 28 swap, 2029, 30 swap

Magic have several guards like Murray, they need shooting & CJ's 42% on volume has to be more enticing to a team in need of spacing. If Magic are willing to take on Capela's salary to net Murray, then they should be ok with CJ's 30 m.

- CJ to Magic for Isaac, Magic 24th. Flipped for Murray.

This allows Pels to net assets for BI & trade up. See the suggested Portland trade of Brogdon, #7 & #14

- (Barnes. Collins #8, FRP) for (Capela #1).

Hawks net a SF who can shoot in Barnes, a backup C to Okongwu in Collins & there's some interesting players at 7/8 at lower price points like Salaun & Topic that have high potential ceilings avoiding the potential tag at 1 in an uncertain draft & it's 12m price point. Hawks maximize their risk on potential by trading down.

[Whole Truth]

Trade 1 - Atlanta Von King show suggests, Murray & Capella's bad salary (38m) for Isaac, #24

NO's trade - (CJ 35m) for (Isaac, expiring/cap space, #24)

Magic are after spacing - CJ shot 42% on 8 APG. I'd add FRP's to the deal to get back Suggs, if possible. This would allow NO's to either keep him as a Daniels replacement or flip him.

NO's trade - (CJ, Kings 27, 28 swap, 29, 30 swap) for (Issac, Suggs, TPE)

Trade 2 - Atlanta Von King show suggests trading down from #1 for Brogdon, #7, #14. NO's link has BI suggested trade to the Kings.

Kings trade - (Barnes, Huerter, Mitchell, #13, 27, 28 swap, 29, 30 swap) for (BI, Graham)

Spurs trade - (Collins, Graham #8) for (Huerter, #13)

Hawks trade - (Murray, Capela, #1) for (Barnes, Isaac, Daniels or Suggs, Spurs #8, NO's 21 )

NO's trade - (BI, Isaac, Daniels or Suggs, #21) for (Murray, Collins, Capela, #1)

[Whole Truth]

Portland trade - (Brogdon, Kriss Murray, #7, #14) for (BI)

Magic trade - (Isaac, expiring/cap space) for (CJ)

Hawks trade - (Murray, Capela #1) for (Brogdon, Isaac, #7, #14, #21)

NO's trade - (BI, CJ, #21) for (Murray, Capela, #1)

#1 Sarr - Capela
Zion - Nance
Murphy - Daniels
Herb - Hawkins
Murray - Jose

[Whole Truth]

I watched the Ken Griffey JR documentary & the passing of the torch by his father as they got a chance to play together. I mention this because Lebron narrated in it. That documentary impacted him & his interest in playing with Bronny is real. He opts out to a team that drafts him that Lakers 25 pick is going to be extremely valuable.

[Whole Truth]

Hawks King ken is saying Sarr is a bad development fit for Atlanta. It's music to my ears.

Sarr is bringing elite switch ability & rim protection day 1 for Green. Like some of the other lanky 7 footers his post defense needs work & will benefit from strength training. The potential is there for him to be a defensive floor spacer but it will probably take time, so while Zion is still young, I realize the hunger to win. So NO's will have to find a veteran to bridge that development gap but it's Sarr that will raise the ceiling of potentially being that Unicorn for Zion.

I'm hoping to hear at some point Pels worked him out. He's the defensive player Green wants & the fit is near perfect as all NO's really need from him offensively is to rim run or hit an open 3. Atlanta is watching how raw his post moves are in combination with the 3 ball potential but NO's don't really want him operating in that space...

I think Ken is right in that for some players to succeed they need to be drafted to the right team & situation.

I'm no pro scout but I believe Green's system & Zion's skillset are the right fit for Sarr.

[Whole Truth]

When I suggested Murray at the trade deadline, it was to swap CJ's 35m for a younger 2 way player on a 25m contract. Suggested, if Hawks didn't want CJ to involve the Magic who need spacing, where CJ has been elite.

That has turned into BI, Herb & Daniels names thrown in & CJ remaining:

Seeing Daniels & worse yet, Herb's name coming up in these deals for Murray & Allen is counter productive. Daniels is already a better defender than Murray & at some point when he puts his 3 ball together, he will surpass Murray's fit with Zion. Which is why I talked about Daniels developing behind Murray & recouping value by flipping Murray who's on a value deal, if he were to develop offensively.

Trading either Daniels or Herb, 2 elite perimeter defenders on better control & contracts for a one dimensional big man on 2yrs control & worse contract, IMO would be epically stupid. The main reason Cavs are opting for Mobley is the fact that Allen doesn't space the floor & they don't get zoned the way NO's does. I've shown in multiple posts as good as Nance was defensively, NO's faired statistically better with the offensive C & as offensively deficient Daniels was, Zion faired better with the elite defensive guard over CJ's elite spacing & shot creation. Shouldn't be watching Daniels as a throw in, he has an elite skill with potential & is a ceiling raiser for this team. The very reason you took him at 8.

Herb is a better 2 way player than Murray on a better contract, I wouldn't trade Herb for Murray straight up, more less thrown in as a complimentary asset just so NO's can get Allen. Let him stay in Cleveland if it means Herb or Daniels. Claxton put up similar defensive metrics to Allen on a worse Nets team & is a free agent, if you not concerned with spacing from the position.

If NO's are trading BI to Atlanta or 3rd team for preference, I'd be looking at Murray & #1 Sarr where it would be a benefit to take back 2yrs of Capela to bridge a development gap. Which would hold value to Hawks in trade.

I'd deal for Allen if it meant he went to Atlanta for Okongwu & #1 Sarr. Start Okongwu & develop Sarr. Both with better contracts, control, switch ability & spacing potential. Same principle with Daniel's developing behind Murray, raising the teams ceiling. When Sarr develops, NO's can flip Okongwu who's also on a value contract.

C = Okongwu - #1 Sarr
PG = Murray - Daniels

[Whole Truth]

Magic trade - (Suggs, Carter or Isaac) for (CJ, FRP/s)

Cavs trade - (Allen) for (Carter, Suggs)

Hawks trade - (Okongwu, Murray, #1) for (Allen, BI, #21)

NO's trade - (BI, CJ, #21, FRP) for (Okongwu, Murray, #1)

C - Okongwu - #1 Sarr
PF - Zion - Nance
SF - Murphy - Daniels
SG - Herb - Hawkins - Daniels
PG - Murray - Jose - Daniels