Road to a Championship start here, 2022 Draft.

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After the first Q, I would have gone Jonas with shooters in the non Zion minutes & Zion with shooters in the non Jonas minutes. Green with his defensive mindset is thinking Nance for defensive switch ability but there was as much an offensive issue concerning Cavs zone defense & Pels inability to hit 3's. Where going with Nance, Pels are choosing to play 4 on 5 with an extra body in the Cavs zone defense, an extra player they can & were cheating off of.

In thinking defense first with Nance... Green's not close to considering either Ryan or Hawkins with Zion at the 5 to help bust the zone. Instead, he played into the Cavs defensive strength trying to play defense.

All those 3;s Cavs hit, they only had 105pts with 2 minutes remaining. Cavs zone held Pels to 85 pts... What do you think was the real issue, defense or an inability to score ? Not saying this game couldn't have used Dyson to contain the Cavs 3pt shooting but Only Zion was effective in the Cavs zone defense & his best minutes came at the 5 with another perimeter threat on court.

The difference between the first game & this one was Cavs effective zone defense. Reason... Zion at the 5 was the Pels most effective lineup in the loss. Game 1, Cavs couldn't effectively zone with Murphy's spacing in Zion's place. Containing their perimeter shooters was issue #2, this is where I would say Daniels is sorely missed but Green will go CJ for offense over Daniels & Nance for defense of Jonas. Same problem.

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Best decision in this game was subbing Murphy in for CJ at the 3"30 mark 4th Q.

Finally.

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This post is inspired by a poster claiming going small on Zubac was a good move.

Over the last 3yrs Pels have played the Clippers 11 times & are 9-2. 4-0 without CJ, 5-2 with.

In the 4 games, without CJ, (4-0)

2021-22 Game 17, 94-81 win, Hart starting, Jonas 38 mins, 26-13-2-1 on 10-19 shooting 36%, +20
2021-22 Game 23, 123-104 win, Hart starting, Jonas 32 mins, 39-15-3-2 on 15-24 shooting 63%, +22
2021-22 Game 42, 113-89 win, Hart starting, Jonas 31 mins, 18-16 on 7-12 shooting 59%, +16
2023-24 Game 16, 116-106 win, Daniels starting, Jonas 27mins, 12-8-4 on 4-6 shooting 67%, +15

Jonas over the 4 games 95pts, 52 rebs, 9 assists & nothing less than +15 in the 4-0 record.

In the 7 games, with CJ, (5-2)

2021-22 Game 78, 119-100 loss, Jonas 22 mins, 8-9-1 on 4-6 shooting 67%, -21, (CJ 7-18, -21)
2022-23 Game 6, 112-91 win, Jonas 23 mins, 11-7-5 on 4-6 shooting 67%, +1, (CJ 9-19, +13) No Kawhi
2022-23 Game 74, 131-110 win, Jonas 31 mins, 17-13-4-1 on 8-18 shooting 44% +18, (CJ 8-15, +21) No PG
2022-23 Game 78, 122-114 win, Jonas 28 mins, 23-12 on 10-18 shooting 56%, -1, (CJ 8-18, +4) No PG
2023-24 Game 36, 11-95 loss, Jonas 22 mins, 13-11-1 on 6-12 shooting 50%, -7, (CJ 4-13, -10)
2023-24 Game 51 ,117-106 win, Jonas 10 mins, 8-2-1 on 3-3 shooting 1000% +2, (CJ 10-17, +4)
2023-24 Game 66, 112-104 win, Jonas 18 mins, 4-6 on 1-6 shooting 167%, -2, (CJ 5-13, 0)

In these 7 games CJ is shooting (51-113) without the defensive compensation of a Hart or Daniels & it's that inefficiency & poor perimeter defense that runs Jonas efficiency & rebounding off court in what is & has been a favorable matchup for him. Note also 4 of the 7 games is without either Kawhi or PG so of the 6 wins, only 2 games Clips had PG & Kawhi available with CJ playing. Otherwise Herb would be spread thin ..

Without CJ Jonas plays more than 30 mins putting up 95-32-9 in 4 games, (4-0), 2 wins with Clips fully healthy
With CJ Jonas plays no more than 22 mins putting up 84-50-12 in 7 games, (5-2), 2 losses with Clips fully healthy

There's 4 matchups for Jonas in the West PO scene that can go wrong for the Pels because Green will turn a favorable matchup in to an in favorable one because ... CJ has to play. Suns series he shot 35% for the series where Paul got to all his spots. Pels fans Ayton owned Jonas, with 98% of his offense assisted. No, Jonas is played off the court in the 35% efficiency & lack luster perimeter defensive compensation.

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Houston without Sengun up 24 on the Cavs with 9 to go 4th Q.

Jabari 8-12. 3-4 from 3, 20pts +24,

Allstar Allen, 8pts, 5 rebs, -16.

Cavs 33% from 3 on 30 attempts.

Houston 41% from 3 on 34 attempts

Houston isn't letting them successfully zone 3-5th the rotation, trying to turn defense into offense.

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Wanted to post the other day but 6 & 7 are warring & they killed 3 cops over the weekend up by we, so you know they have everybody busy.

Really hope the defensive scheme against Portland was experimental & not intentional.

Scoot is shooting 29% from 3, Ayton 30% on low volume ... Why would you have Jonas aggressively hedging 2 feet above the arc when he's normally in drop coverage against better shooting teams ?.

Why would you not pack the paint & cheat off of Scoot ?

Intentionally creating space in the paint for a team starting a PG & C that don't have effective range doesn't seem like an ideal defensive scheme for a slow footed big man who normally plays drop coverage.

If not experimental.. I'd question motive.

CJ had a nice game though

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Reason Pels are 4-0 vs Kings is because of their lengthy wings & the fact Jonas plays Sabonis well. CJ played in 2 of the 4 wins. The other 2 wins the team were short a bench with CJ, Murphy & Nance out.

Pels are currently 1-2 vs Wolves. However, with Zion, CJ, Murphy & Nance out, Pels dropped a 1 pt game against them in an early road B2B, otherwise NO's would be 2-1 vs Wolves in part because Jonas historically plays both Kat & Gobert well. Ask any Wolves fan.. From Toronto to Memphis to NO's

Same with the Clippers who are weak in the middle. Pels with Jonas starting are 9-2 over the last 3 yrs vs Clippers 4 games without CJ, 6 games without ZIon. However, t's in his 7 games (5-2) record with CJ that his impact becomes erratic against them because his efficient touches go to CJ in lesser efficiency & poor perimeter defensive compensation vs the consistency of his impact with Hart & Daniels in those 4 wins, 2 of which Clippers were fully healthy. NO's with CJ are 0-2 with Clippers fully healthy, 5-0 with at least one of Kawhi, PG or Harden out & that's because Herb doesn't have to contain 2 apposed to 1.

CJ is going to be the reason Green lets Jonas get run off the court in a favorable matchup come PO's & none will blame him because Jonas won't look effective not being involved in the offense with no defensive compensation other than Herb who gets spread thin against teams like the Clips & Suns who have multiple threats ...

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Pels Reddit posted NBA university of twitter most played lineups from the last 7 yrs.

I'm more interested in the last 5 with Zion ...

2020 = Lonzo - Jrue - BI - Zion - Favors, 624 mins, +18.4

2021 = Lonzo - Bledsoe - BI - Zion - Adams, 1260 mins, +2.8

2022 = Hart - Greham - Herb - BI - Jonas, 689 mins, +12.7

2023 = CJ. - Herb - Murphy - BI - Jonas. 736 mins, -0.9

2024 = CJ - Herb - B( - Zion - Jonas, 873 mins, -1.1


Note
- in 2020, Zion with Lonzo & Jrue as perimeter defenders was +18
- in 2022, Jonas with Hart & Herb as perimeter defenders was +12
- in 2023 & 24, Herb with CJ, Zion or no Zion are -1

- in 2024, 100 mins with Daniels & Herb, Zion & Jonas are +20.4
- in 2024, 100 mins with Herb & Nance, Zion & CJ are -1

- in 2024, 50 mins with Murphy & Herb, Zion & Jonas are +29

While the sample size is not large, CJ with either Jonas or Nance starting, are -1 with at least 100 mins
Either or both Zion, Jonas, with 2 perimeter defenders the starters are no worse than +12 with significant mins

Clippers who Pels may pull as a matchup in the Playoffs have wing depth but are weak in the middle. The key to this series will be how well Pels can contain their perimeter players. Either or both Zion & Jonas have shown they can dominate their paint with the right defensive compensation & usage. CJ is 5-2 against the Clippers but in the 5 wins, Clips were short at least one of their perimeter threats. Seeing Daniels may be available is going to be key in this series, I have no doubt.

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The last couple games where Nance has looked more effective, who was he playing with ?

Jose - Naji - Murphy - Zion

Zion volume efficiency & Murphy's spacing efficiency offsets Nance 115 offensive rating.

Zion's increased rebounding effort & Murphy's rebounding length, help offset Nance ability to secure rebounds & reduce second chance opportunity

Jose & Naji apply defensive pressure at the point of attack, which reduces the space in which Zion is defending.

This is what a balanced lineup looks like. Nothing changed where Nance game was concerned. He was playing solid defense the entire time.

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Nance was having a great game with Murphy & Naji. He was +16 in the first half off the bench.

Green decides to start Nance 3rd Q as a result of how well he was playing. The starters go down -8 & Nets cut the 19pt lead to 11 out the break giving up 12 pts in the first 4 mins of the Q. A timeout & extended run helped that unit push to a net 0 with 5 remaining. If that was Jonas & not Nance, he would have got the hook at the 4 min mark with the 12-4 run, lol.

At some point you're going to realize the issue with the starters is not the center position.

1st Q - Jonas is subbed 5 minute mark Pels (15-13)

3rd Q (64-45) - Nance is subbed 5:20 mark Pels (81-62) ----------- (17-17) run

So tell me, how did playing Nance who was having a good game improve the start to the 3rd ?.

Issue with the starters = offensive overlap which affects efficiency & lack of perimeter defense/pressure.

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Nice whistle Magic are getting. lol.

Keep talking about defense to offense that's what Magic are doing forcing TO's.. Pels best stretch is when they were putting the ball in the hoop efficiently, not turning the ball over. Magic went on their run when Pels went to Nance & were playing 4 on 5 offensively. Magic were able to force more TO's as a result. Granted refs giving them a loose whistle to a tight whistle for NO's played into the momentum changing hands but it took way to long for Green to adjust offensively ... 16pt swing allowed with no changes.

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Move Zion to the 5 & get another offensive option on court..

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Every minute Nance is on court, strengthens the Magics defense, which fuels their offense..

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Jonas 18 mins +4
Nance 18 mins -24

It's almost as though playing 4 on 5 with Nance is not working against the #3 defense

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7-0 run to start the 4th with ZIon at the 5 & a shooter at the 4.. Down 13 with 10 to go.

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Jonas only starter +4 benched at 18 mins. Show me your colors Mr Green.

With the small ball lineup starting to get out rebounded.. Jonas just wasn't an option.

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LMAO, love the Jonas is benched because of his defense excuse. I'm fully aware of his defensive limitations & sometimes it's justified. That said, not every situation calls for a defensive solution but Green as a defensive coach, simply prefers defensive players in all situations, he's defense first. See Hawkins vs Herb/Daniels as rookies. I have years of this experience with Jonas, Casey/(Green) & Derozan/(CJ). I'm watching that experience unfold like deja-vu & I'm probably talking into the wind trying to share that experience but still trying. Nance being -24 with no hook after a 16pt first half swing. As a matter of fact, after giving up a 24-4 run being -24 in the game, Green went back to Nance, now that's trust lol ... Think he would have that same trust with the offensive big man who was + 4 in the same amount of minutes ?. It doesn't look like it because he had the opportunity 4th Q.

Last night man say Jonas should have missed the bus... lol.

Jonas could have been playing terrible on both ends. What he did by being on court was pose a threat to the Magic's top 3 defense. Reason, Pels opened a 12pt lead 1st Q. Reason, Jonas was +4 in the same minutes played as Nance. Magic NEED their defense to fuel their offense. They didn't put their game together until they were able to cheat off of Nance & start getting some favorable whistles. They ended up turning Zion & the Pels over & a 12 pt lead into a 14pt deficit. I believe Zion had 8 TO's, that's 24 potential points lost from him alone but not his fault, a good defensive Magic team was effectively cheating off of Nance. Does anyone think Green would ride Jonas in a 24-4 stretch with Nance available ? lol & therein is the flaw.. Not all situations call for defense. By opting to play & stick with Nance, Green played into the Magics hand. The scary part was after getting demolished playing 4 on 5 offensively, Green went back to it.

When the 2nd half rolled around, AD makes the comment on how Magic are ignoring the centre position offensively, why wouldn't they .. so was Green & they found their success in the game doing it. By opting to play & stay with Nance, Green was playing to the Magic's strength (top 3 defense). Reason, ZIon at the 5 with an additional shooter was working until they started getting out rebounded.... Reason, Green should have trusted Jonas but didn't. Unlike Magic needing their defense to fuel their offense. Pels strength is in their offensive efficiency. Reason, when they go cold, they have no defensive answer despite being a top 6 ranked defensive team. I've been saying it for yrs. Jonas has been apart of 3 teams to make top 5 in defense because of his offensive efficiency & rebounding. Tell me more about defensive limitations, LMAO. I'm not sure MF's understand their own roster more less the ones they face. (Lets play 4 on 5 against a top 3 defense & when it doesn't work to the tune of Nance being -24, lets go back to it) lol.

When Zion at the 5 started the 4th 10-0 cutting the lead to 10. Pels got a stop but Magic grabbed the offensive board for a put back. Magic started outrebounding them which turned momentum. Green should have subbed Jonas for his offense & rebounding no matter how he played earlier. That's trust for a player that has given this team reliable consistency for 3 yrs.

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Well wishes to BI.

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Note, the game didn't change when Nance came in for Jonas, it changed when Jose came in for CJ.

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Jose & CJ to close the half, too small.

Zion struggling against the Heat zone with Nance at the 5. That dunkers spot, lol

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If Zion continues to struggle, move him to the 5 for an additional shooter, either Hawkins or Ryan.