Thoughts on the Andrew Bailey trade?

Post #1 » by **Celtics_Champs** » Fri Dec 30, 2011 7:01 am

I like it. Didn't get to see him play much, only against us.

I was a fan of reddick, I thought he coulda been a good 4th outfielder for many years to come in Boston. But oh well.

Thoughts?

Dirty Water · Post #2 » by **Dirty Water** » Fri Dec 30, 2011 3:45 pm

I think the key in the trade is Ryan Sweeney. Solid player back for Reddick - the deal is essentially Bailey for two low A-ball non world-beater prospects out of the top ten of the system. Pretty solid. Cherington has done a great job so far in terms of things he is in control of. We'll see in 2 or 3 years what happens when management twists his arm to sign another big time free agent or cooky manager.

Dirty Water · Post #3 » by **Dirty Water** » Fri Dec 30, 2011 3:51 pm

Also - eventually I see Bard back in the bullpen as the closer. Melancon and Bailey setting him up. Jenks/Albers/Morales in middle relief. I think Aceves has better starter stuff and will end up being the #4 or #5 starter. Just my opinion.

Post #4 » by **TNBT** » Mon Jan 9, 2012 8:30 am

Dirty Water wrote:Also - eventually I see Bard back in the bullpen as the closer. Melancon and Bailey setting him up. Jenks/Albers/Morales in middle relief. I think Aceves has better starter stuff and will end up being the #4 or #5 starter. Just my opinion.

As someone who is still learning about baseball, I found this post interesting but decided not to start a whole new thread about it. I'm curious as to what attributes make a pitcher fall into a particular category such as starter, set-up, relief, closer, etc. Can anyone enlighten me here?

Dirty Water · Post #5 » by **Dirty Water** » Wed Jan 25, 2012 8:10 pm

TNBT wrote:
Dirty Water wrote:Also - eventually I see Bard back in the bullpen as the closer. Melancon and Bailey setting him up. Jenks/Albers/Morales in middle relief. I think Aceves has better starter stuff and will end up being the #4 or #5 starter. Just my opinion.

As someone who is still learning about baseball, I found this post interesting but decided not to start a whole new thread about it. I'm curious as to what attributes make a pitcher fall into a particular category such as starter, set-up, relief, closer, etc. Can anyone enlighten me here?

That's a very good question. These clear concise roles are really something that has developed in baseball over the last couple decades. For the most part, relievers are always failed starters. Many do not have enough effective pitches in their repetoire to keep an entire line up off balance for 5,6,7,8,9 innings at a time. So generally, in the back-end of bullpens you see a lot of one or two trick ponies. Guys with maybe one or two really elite pitches, but never developed a lot of secondary pitches such as a good curveball or change-up.

Generally, a healthy inning count for a starting pitcher in a season is 200 IP (closer to 275 IP before relivf pitchers became so prominant in MLB). Most relivers generally do not pitch more than 60-85 IP in a season. They are called upon for 1 or 2 innings about every other day, therefore there is general stanima they must keep in the long run. Starters on the other hand stretch themselves out fully all in one day, every 5 days. As a result of this, a lot of pitchers with high velocity lose 3-4 mph on their fastball when they are stretched out into a starter. Thus, a lot of some of these one or two trick pony flame-throwing pitchers become ultimately very ineffective without a 97-98 mph fastball and no other elite pitch to get them through tough lineups. It is very rare to seeflame throwers in starting roles these days in the majors. Nolan Ryan, Pedro Martinez, Randy Johnson, Justin Verlander are a few, but these are the elite. And they don't come around very much.

Daniel Bard is almost a perfect microcosm for this reliever/starter philosphy. He has an elite fastball that can reach 100 mph. And also has a very devastating slider which is one of his out pitches. But asside from that, his change-up and 2-seamer haven't developed as well as some scouts may have thought they might. So his ability to get guys out over a 6 or 7 inning span may be harder. When he was in his usual 8th inning role, he doesn't need to keep hitters guessing and off balance over a span of 2 or 3 times through the lineup. He just needed to blow them away with his fastball, and keep them hoenst with his slider.

Sorry for the late response. I hope this answers some of your questions. I'm not on their forum as much as I used to.

Bard may ultimately have some success as a starter. It's really hard to tell. The last time the Red Sox tried something like this Papelbon was immediately sent back into the bullpen because they were weak there. Before Him, Derek Lowe succeeded being stretched back into a starter because he had better command, control and a better repetoire than just a devastating fastball (which he never had).

Post #6 » by **TNBT** » Fri Jan 27, 2012 5:02 pm

Thanks for the info there mate. I had a rough idea that a starter needed more reliable pitches than a reliever, and I know that Bard is known primarily for having a devestating fastball. However, I had been led to believe by other Sox fans that he has developed much more reliable support pitches, and now had enough of an arsenal to be effective as a starter. I take it from your post that you disagree with that notion?

Dirty Water · Post #7 » by **Dirty Water** » Wed Feb 15, 2012 4:29 pm

His change up has been coming along, but I saw some serious issues with what he was doing down the stretch in 2011. His mechanics were off. As a casual fan you could see he was dropping his shoulder down on his fastball. He couldn't find the plate. Ultimately I see this is why Curt Young got canned. I can't believe he didn't even notice this or try to correct it with him. It plagued him all September and the numbers showed.

If Bard can get his mechanics back and at least have the cojones to drop a change-up every now and then over the plate he will find success. I think a lot of things need to go right. Being Optimistic I think he could put up about 10 wins (would be higher, but they probably won't let him pitch more than 6 innings very much). 4.30 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 150 innings. He'll be dominant at times, but he coudl succumb to some meltdowns and homerun balls. Hence the low Whip, and increase in ERA.

Be interesting to watch Chris Sale for the White Sox along with Bard. Similar overpowering-style relievers moving in to the rotation.