2014 trade deadline discussion thread

hermes · Post #21 » by **hermes** » Mon Jul 7, 2014 2:35 pm

wow thats really interesting

hermes · Post #22 » by **hermes** » Mon Jul 28, 2014 8:07 pm

darwin barney has gone to the dodgers
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/07/d ... arney.html

gave them some cash and we get a player later

hermes · Post #23 » by **hermes** » Mon Jul 28, 2014 8:12 pm

some other rumors i've read on there:

- cubs not going after price unless the rays demands drop big time
- they are looking to move edwin jackson (although no one probably wants him)
- vallbuena and ruggiano might stay since they are controlled through 2016 and it would be good to keep some vets around to mentor the kids

Kizz Fastfists · Post #24 » by **Kizz Fastfists** » Mon Jul 28, 2014 11:10 pm

You have to have a bench and guys that can play the first 3 weeks until Baez and Bryant get called up next year. So Valbuena as a utility guy and Ruggiano as your 3rd/4th OF are far from bad players to have in those spots. With Soler, Bryant, Soler and Russell all expected to be up next year along with Rizzo, Castro, Alcantara and Castillo they can't just sell off the bench players for next year. They have to be looking at next year as a chance to contend.

They will have a ton of money to spend this off-season. The need to add at least one and hopefully two top of the rotation arms to go with Arrietta, Wood and EJax/Hendricks/Straily. The offense should be better than league average next year even with so many rookies. They will have to add the pitching. However, they could easily make a playoff run next year with the right off-season moves and still be set with a payroll that will be under $100M next year and would not exceed $125M for another 4-5 years.

hermes · Post #25 » by **hermes** » Tue Jul 29, 2014 4:56 am

do you think any more moves will be made before the deadline?

Kizz Fastfists · Post #26 » by **Kizz Fastfists** » Wed Jul 30, 2014 1:39 am

I think they'll move a bullpen arm like Russell or Wright. If they can get an offer on Schierholtz they'd probably move him for a lottery ticket. Nothing major is going to happen. Nothing crazy like moving Castro or adding Price.

Kizz Fastfists · Post #27 » by **Kizz Fastfists** » Wed Jul 30, 2014 1:43 am

Spaced out Emilio in that last post. I think they move him for a decent prospect. Not a top 100 guy, but a 150-200 type with upside.

karch34 · Post #28 » by **karch34** » Wed Jul 30, 2014 4:15 am

No problem keeping Valbuena and Ruggiano, but at the same time while I want solid vets on the team it's not like those guys are hard to get in the offseason either.

Kizz Fastfists · Post #29 » by **Kizz Fastfists** » Wed Jul 30, 2014 1:46 pm

karch34 wrote:No problem keeping Valbuena and Ruggiano, but at the same time while I want solid vets on the team it's not like those guys are hard to get in the offseason either.

The difference is they already know Valbuena can be a solid utility guy and they have his rights for next season so there is no reason to trade him, for a C prospect, and then try to find a utility guy in FA over Valbuena's arbitration price. The same goes for Ruggiano. The return isn't worth having to fight for a 4th OF in FA over just going to arbitration, which should be cheaper. I'm not going to be upset if they are moved in the next 36 hours, but I expect them to be back next year.

They would have to replace Valbuena and Ruggiano with guys who would be willing to accept bench roles. Most players as good as them or better will want at least a chance to compete for a starting job with a team they sign for or decent money. We know Rizzo, Castro, Alcantara and Castillo will be playing next year. Soler should be playing on Opening Day. Bryant and Baez will be up early, assuming they are not called up in September in which case you can pencil them in for Opening Day as well. Russell will probably be up in June after a start at AAA. They are not going to play the kids everyday as rookies so they will want some solid bench options. Ruggiano and Valbuena are proven guys you can count on. Maybe Olt or Lake on the bench as well as a backup catcher. Valbuena is going to make around $2.5M next year and Ruggiano around $3M. I don't think you are going to get anything better then them for those prices in FA.

They don't need to spend money on position players, especially the bench. They will be needing to spend their money on pitching. A top of the rotation arm, or two, are where the resources need to be used. The hitting is going to go how the prospects go. Adding a $8M utility guy over Valbuena or Ruggiano doesn't change that it just limits what you can spend on pitching. Arrieta, Wood, Hendricks, EJax, Wada and Straily, assuming none of them are traded today, give you a lot of guys to try to sort out your 3-5 spots. However, none of them are guys you want as your top two pitcher. A rotation of Scherzer, Lester, Arrieta, with two of the others gives you a chance to make a playoff run next year with an above average offense, which they should have even with the ups and downs of the rookies due to the volume of talent.

karch34 · Post #30 » by **karch34** » Wed Jul 30, 2014 2:20 pm

I agree. The money needs to be spent on pitching and any bench players for next year might be more expensive and less proven than Valbuena and Ruggiano. Also need to be willing to accept that role. Just saying after seeing Schierholtz have such a huge drop in production I'm not going to be upset either if they have that mindset.

I think we're on the same page though. I honestly think that there won't be much in the way of moves anyway, Bonafacio and a reliever if anything.

hermes · Post #31 » by **hermes** » Thu Jul 31, 2014 2:20 am

so we traded for a felix doubront
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/07/c ... bront.html

i don't know him, what's his story? could he be a candidate for a switching to the NL boost (from not being in the AL anymore)

i guess there has been a lot of bonifacio talk as well

Kizz Fastfists · Post #32 » by **Kizz Fastfists** » Thu Jul 31, 2014 3:30 am

Doubront was a starter in 2012 and 2013 with a 4.86 and 4.32 ERA. He was unhappy about being moved to the bullpen and had requested to be traded. He's only 26 and should go to AAA to get stretched out, assuming he has options left, and compete for a rotation spot next year. The PTBNL will probably not be anything significant so they are taking a flier on an arm they know that they feel can be successful for them. I have mixed feelings on this move as it seems that they are loading up on starters when I thought we had enough back end guys and should have been focusing on adding a top of the rotation arm or two. If they go into next year with Arrieta, Wood, Doubrount, EJax, Hendricks, Straily and some Maholm/Hammel signing as the rotation options I'm going to be upset.

It was also announced that Jonathan Martinez was the PTBNL for Barney. He's a 20 yr old pitcher with good control and solid, but not great stuff. Similar profile to Kyle Hendricks. He's still at least two years away, but that's a better return than I expected for Barney.

karch34 · Post #33 » by **karch34** » Thu Jul 31, 2014 3:46 am

Found a little more on Martinez as Kizz beat me to the post. http://www.chicagonow.com/world-series- ... ney-trade/

Better than I expected for Barney, even though he is a gold glover.

I think the Dubrount move is just seeing if they can get a lottery ticket. My hope is that we're not piecemealing 40-60% of our rotation around speculation and trying to luck into a hot hand next year. That said we really don't have a pressing need for much as far as positional players in the minors, so why not get pitching and someone whom Theo might even be familiar with. Heck why not start him this year and see what he's got? Pitch him in relief of EJax and he can get 2-5 innings pretty easily to stretch his arm out.

karch34 · Post #34 » by **karch34** » Thu Jul 31, 2014 2:33 pm

Surprised to see Lester for Cepedis go down. Good news is that Lester won't be eligible for a Qualifying Offer so he will definitely be a free agent.

Posey H8er · Post #35 » by **Posey H8er** » Thu Jul 31, 2014 4:11 pm

Looks like there's a great chance Bonifacio is dealt later today - http://chicagosportssection.com/2014/07 ... bonifacio/

Kizz Fastfists · Post #36 » by **Kizz Fastfists** » Thu Jul 31, 2014 4:48 pm

Lester for Cespedes is a shocker. So Oakland, who had the best record and run differential before making a move, adds three starters and gives up a big bat. I like Lester for Cespedes for Oakland in a vacuum as I'm not very high on Cespedes, his OBP is a serious issue, but giving up three of your best assets, Russell, McKinney and Cespedes for two guys who are rentals and one that is gone after next year just scream desperation. There is a difference between going for it and putting yourself in a rough spot going forward for a one year window.

It is great for the Cubs. There will be no compensation attached to Lester. We can expect there to be compensation attached to Scherzer and Shields. This front office has not heavily pursued anyone with compensation attached to them so I can this making Lester the big off-season target even though Scherzer would be my top choice.

Kizz Fastfists · Post #37 » by **Kizz Fastfists** » Thu Jul 31, 2014 5:02 pm

karch34 wrote:I think the Dubrount move is just seeing if they can get a lottery ticket. My hope is that we're not piecemealing 40-60% of our rotation around speculation and trying to luck into a hot hand next year. That said we really don't have a pressing need for much as far as positional players in the minors, so why not get pitching and someone whom Theo might even be familiar with. Heck why not start him this year and see what he's got? Pitch him in relief of EJax and he can get 2-5 innings pretty easily to stretch his arm out.

It depends on how they use him. If he's just a lottery ticket type who will be fighting for the 5th starter spot with EJax, Hendricks, Straily, Beeler and maybe Wada then fine. If they are thinking that Arrieta, Wood and the guys previously mentioned are going to be 4 rotation spots I'm not going to like it. Obviously, Hendricks and Wada could change my mind on that some over the rest of the year. I thought Wood was a fluke last year, but I didn't think he would be this bad. I thought he was more of a 3.80-4.20 ERA guy. A decent #3 and solid #4 type.

I expect two quality pitchers signed this off-season. Lester will probably be one as he won't have compensation tied to him and Theo has a history with him. I could see Josh Beckett on a 2yr deal as the other. Another guy Theo has a history with and is healthy again. If they only sign Lester and do not make a move for another pitcher I'm going to be unhappy heading into next year. I expect the offense to be above average, even with 3+ rookies in the lineup. The bullpen is solid and should continue to improve as Vizcaino breaks in and the younger guys get more experience. So the rotation is needs to get the needed attention. A $70M payroll, which would be adding Lester and nothing else, would be unacceptable to me at this point. The payroll should hold steady around $90-95M, which is where it was going into this season, until the renovations are done and additional revenue streams start to flow in then they can finally be a big market team with big market revenue and big market spending.

Post #38 » by **GYBE** » Thu Jul 31, 2014 8:28 pm

Bonifacio and Russell to Atlanta. Still waiting on who we got.

Edit: Apparently we got Victor Caratini, catcher.

karch34 · Post #39 » by **karch34** » Thu Jul 31, 2014 8:49 pm

Kizz Fastfists wrote:Lester for Cespedes is a shocker. So Oakland, who had the best record and run differential before making a move, adds three starters and gives up a big bat. I like Lester for Cespedes for Oakland in a vacuum as I'm not very high on Cespedes, his OBP is a serious issue, but giving up three of your best assets, Russell, McKinney and Cespedes for two guys who are rentals and one that is gone after next year just scream desperation. There is a difference between going for it and putting yourself in a rough spot going forward for a one year window.

Agreed. I assume some of it is selling early on Cespedes before they have to pay him and maximizing the return. I also think Oakland looks at it as they're small market and need to go all in with the window they have, figuring they can restock the system and find players on good deals as well as anyone.

Kizz Fastfists · Post #40 » by **Kizz Fastfists** » Thu Jul 31, 2014 9:02 pm

GYBE wrote:Bonifacio and Russell to Atlanta. Still waiting on who we got.

Edit: Apparently we got Victor Caratini, catcher.

Solid return. A 20 year old catching prospect. He could be a good one in 2-3 years. I'll take that for a mediocre utility player that is about to hit FA and a decent bullpen arm. He was 6th best prospect in the Braves' system by some mid-season rankings. He'll probably slot in much lower for the Cubs, but he's shown to be a solid OBP guy and should develop some pop as he matures. Has a .279/.352/.406 line in A ball this year.