ontnut wrote:gerrit4 wrote:
Considering he made over 1000 bets, I'd speculate that he's a gambling addict who got deep into debt. Maybe he bet on himself with spoof accounts to pay out of the debt, or maybe he did and then tipped off the guys to whom he he owed money. Considering he has a brother that makes over $30 mill a year, I'll bet MPJ had helped him get out of some jams until the debt got really high.
Who knows though. I've never bet on sports, so maybe 1000 bets is actually not that high (I know some people that bet like $2 a game during March Madness) and he's innocent, or he just needed some extra cash and didn't want to ask his rich brother for money...
1000 bets in what timeframe? It's not high at all (for a serious/pro bettor)...I mean, thats 2.5 bets per day for a year. Pro bettors sometimes make 10+ per day. When I was actively handicapping, I'd easily make 3-4 bets a day on the NBA as a whole. Shoot, sometimes I'd make 3-4 bets on one game. It's like counting cards...if you have an advantage you need to put more bets and more money down in order to leverage the advantage and make profit. Though obviously if you miscalculate, the more bets you put down, the faster you lose. There's definitely a skill to sports betting, but it's extremely time consuming (essentially a full time job), and that's why I stepped back from it after several profitable years turned into a down year or two (as I got lazy with the job).
In terms of P/L, based on a 50/50 outcome (most bets) and an average vig of -110, the average bettor loses about 4.5% of their bet, every bet. That's the "house advantage". So a $1,000 bankroll making $100 bets (10% of their bankroll every time) would lose $4.50 each bet (0.45% of bankroll), and thus they would have about 200 or so bets they could make, on average, before losing their whole bankroll. Betting 10% of your bankroll is deemed very high by most experts. 1-2% max is the general advice. So, that's 1000-2000 bets you can make before exhausting your bankroll, assuming a loss of 0.045%-0.09% of your bankroll, per bet. Assuming Johntay followed this 1% rule, and did bet 1000 times on FanDuel, the likely outcome is he had lost his entire bankroll, which if he was making $1-10,000 bets per game, would've been in the range of $100,000 to $1m lost. And this is on one site.
At the NBA/crpto/pro sports betting level it's not uncommon to have people with $1mil bankrolls...so a $10 or $20k bet would actually be a "responsible" amount for them.