Kansas Players Prone to Bust

[dorkestra]

I'm just looking at recent times. Ever since Paul Pierce was drafted by Boston out of Kansas in 1998, the results are not great.

Bold = First Round Pick
Bold + Italics = Lotto Pick

Well you had Raef LaFrentz in that same year and then:
Ryan Robertson
Drew Gooden
Kirk Hinrich
Nick Collison
Wayne Simien
Julian Wright
Brandon Rush
Darnell Jackson
Mario Chalmers
Darrell Arthur
Xavier Henry
Cole Aldrich
Josh Selby
Markieff Morris
Marcus Morris
Tyshawn Taylor
Thomas Robinson

Now what really stands out about that long list is that 1) i see a lot of players who had hype coming out of kansas who really fizzled in the nba and 2) teams have chosen so many players out of kansas despite the repeated failures of these guys to live up to their hype. Will McLemore buck the trend?

[HeartBreakKid]

Odds are against him, but I personally feel he will. Though, I was a big believer in Julian Wright and Thomas Robinson as well.

[Mik317]

A good chunk of those guys have had solid careers.

[ManualRam]

i never understood lists like these. evaluate player on their own individual talent and ability. i highly doubt scouts even consider crap like this.

[dorkestra]

Raef LaFrentz: turned into a bust which hurt especially when compared to the guys who were passed up for him (including Pierce)
Ryan Robertson: very brief time in league
Drew Gooden: showed promise as a rookie, but never improved mentally/and defensively which meant that he could never be anything more than bench scoring. He was the fourth pick in the draft. That's legitimate bust territory.
Kirk Hinrich: decent role player - nothing spectacular. greatly overshadowed by other talents in his draft class
Nick Collison: selected 12th overall when he has spent most of his time splitting backup big minutes as nothing more than a scrappy enforcer
Wayne Simien: very brief time in league
Julian Wright: sixth pick in draft who is no longer in the league
Brandon Rush: lottery pick who is now a backup averagish role player
Darnell Jackson: barely hanging in the league
Mario Chalmers: average player - good value for 2nd round, but nothing special
Darrell Arthur: backup quality
Xavier Henry: i believe he is already out of the league...
Cole Aldrich: bust
Josh Selby: 10 day contract type
Markieff Morris: better than brother, but doesn't even have starter potential.
Marcus Morris: not looking impressive at all
Tyshawn Taylor: getting no burn
Thomas Robinson: greatly underachieving after being touted as nba-ready

[dorkestra]

duke is talked about as a team who has a good college system and their players are not expected to perform as well in the NBA. i think kansas is worse and just not acknowledged or talked about.

[dorkestra]

also, danny manning?

[CBB_Fan]

also, danny manning?

Not even applicable. He had a decent career that was hurt by ACL tears to both knees.

Anyway, you can't rely make a list with players before the previous coach. Those would be:

Thomas Robinson, 5th, 2012
Cole Aldrich: 11th, 2010
Xavier Henry, 12th, 2010
Julian Wright, 13th, 2007
Brandon Rush, 13th, 2008
Markieff Morris, 13th 2011
Marcus Morris, 14th 2011
Darrell Arthur: 27th, 2008
Wayne Simien, 29th, 2005
JR Giddens, 30th, 2008
Mario Chalmers, 34th, 2008
Tyshawn Taylor, 41st, 2012
Josh Selby, 49th, 2011
Darnell Jackson, 52th, 2008
Sasha Kaun, 56th, 2008
Keith Langford, Undrafted FA
Aaron Miles, Undrafted FA
Sherron Collins, Undrafted FA
Russell Robinson, Undrafted FA

I'll only evaluate the players that actually were recruited by Self, so no Wayne Simien orJulian Wright. If you look at the other players, you'll notice that the majority of them were 2nd round picks or undrafted FAs. And while it is too early to tell for most of these players, I'll compare them to the average production of each pick (given here)

Underperforming Picks:
Thomas Robinson
Cole Aldrich
Xavier Henry
Brandon Rush
JR Giddens
Josh Selby

Overperforming Picks:
Markieff Morris
Marcus Morris
Darrel Arthur
Mario Chalmers
Tyshawn Taylor

Close to Expectations:
Darnell Jackson
Sasha Kaun
Keith Langford
Aaron Miles
Sherron Collins
Russell Robinson


So while KU has put a lot of players into the NBA, most have been late in the draft where quality players are rare from any school. Roughly a third of his picks have overperforming, while another third each has underperformed and performed to expectations.

Of the picks that have underperformed, KU fans would argue that Henry and Selby left before they should have and were not prepared for the NBA. The players were either bigs drafted fairly high or players that basically never played in the NBA and never had high expectations. On the other end, you have the Morris twins and some 2nd round guards.

What I'd argue is less that KU players tend to bust, and more that they tend to get drafted above their NBA skill level. Bill Self's system makes players look like better prospects than they actually are. In some ways, you could say that Bill Self is a coach that is better at getting the most out of his players than most NBA coaches, and most of his players have faults that were covered up by his system. This is probably the case for Robinson and Aldrich at least. Chalmers and Taylor both seem to show that his guards are not necessarily as likely to bust as his centers and PFs.

[Big_C_KU]

You have to take into affect where they were drafted.

Ryan Robertson- Late 2nd Round pick. I'd say ending up outside the league is pretty normal for a player picked there.

Drew Gooden- 4th pick overall. Has had a tough time staying anywhere because like you said, he's not the best on defense. Has had an alright career as a journey man but definently fell short of being picked 4th overall.

Kirk Hinrich- 7th overall pick. I'd say he's had a pretty good career. Like you said he's been overshadowed by the draft class he was in but being a career starter and one of the best player on some playoff teams is a pretty solid career.

Nick Collison- 12th overall pick. Career backup but a pretty damn good back. Most 12th picks in the NBA draft end up being either fringe starters or career backups.

Wayne Simien- Late 1st round pick. Was undersized and lost much love for basketball. Left basketball to become a minister. Fell a little short since he was a 1st round pick but have seen a lot of late 1st round picks fall out of the NBA quickly.

Julian Wright- 13th overall pick. A bust. A tweener that never had a good jumper outside of 12 feet.

Brandon Rush- 13th overall pick. Has had a solid career, especially last season with GS as the 1st wing off the bench and their top perimeter defender. Was starting to come into his own before tearing his ACL early this season. If he returns to the level of play he was playing before the ACL tear a team might pay him some money to be their starter. Before the injury he was having a usual 13th overall pick career.

Darnell Jackson- Mid-2nd round pick. Not sure what you were expecting.

Mario Chalmers- Early 2nd round pick. For being picked in the 2nd round I'd say he's had a pretty good career being the starting PG on an NBA championship team. Solid starter.

Darrell Arthur- 27th overall pick. Being the top backup big man on a playoff team that's going to the 2nd round is pretty good. Especially considering the big men he backs up are Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph. Suffered a torn ACL in 2012. Might eventually be the starter in Memphis or somewhere. Not bad for the 27th overall pick.

Xavier Henry- 12th overall pick. Has been a bust. Can't get off the bench in Memphis or New Orleans.

Cole Aldrich- 13th overall pick. Has been a bust. Can't get off the bench wherever he went.

Josh Selby- mid-2nd round pick. Not sure what you were expecting from him.

Markieff Morris- 13th overall pick. Has been alright has a bench player and starter for Phoenix. Still young. Won't be a superstar.

Marcus Morris- 14th overall pick. Has shown flashes but had trouble at the end of this season getting playing time after the trade. Wouldn't be shocked to see him play more next year.

Tyshawn Taylor- 2nd round pick. Has shown flashes in limited time for the Nets but again he's a 2nd round pick. Shouldn't expected much.

Thomas Robinson- 5th overall pick. Rough first year. Still too early to call a bust though. Don't think he'll ever live up to being the 5th overall pick.

Oh and mentioning Danny Manning you have to consider that he tore his ACL his rookie season. Came back. Was a 20 and 10 guy for a couple seasons and then tore his ACL again. After that was a career backup because he lost nearly all of his athleticism.

Really what has happened to KU players is none of them becoming a star. I see a lot of players who have played at or near their draft position so I wouldn't say they are all busts. We've had a few though but I'm sure if you go back and look at a lot of the other schools you'll see the same amount of bust vs mediocre players. All KU is guilty of is not having a star player since Paul Pierce. I hope McLemore is that star but I wouldn't be shocked to see that be Joel Embiid or Wayne Selden from KU's incoming freshman class.

[Big_C_KU]

also, danny manning?

Not even applicable. He had a decent career that was hurt by ACL tears to both knees.

Anyway, you can't rely make a list with players before the previous coach. Those would be:

Thomas Robinson, 5th, 2012
Cole Aldrich: 11th, 2010
Xavier Henry, 12th, 2010
Julian Wright, 13th, 2007
Brandon Rush, 13th, 2008
Markieff Morris, 13th 2011
Marcus Morris, 14th 2011
Darrell Arthur: 27th, 2008
Wayne Simien, 29th, 2005
JR Giddens, 30th, 2008
Mario Chalmers, 34th, 2008
Tyshawn Taylor, 41st, 2012
Josh Selby, 49th, 2011
Darnell Jackson, 52th, 2008
Sasha Kaun, 56th, 2008
Keith Langford, Undrafted FA
Aaron Miles, Undrafted FA
Sherron Collins, Undrafted FA
Russell Robinson, Undrafted FA

I'll only evaluate the players that actually were recruited by Self, so no Wayne Simien orJulian Wright. If you look at the other players, you'll notice that the majority of them were 2nd round picks or undrafted FAs. And while it is too early to tell for most of these players, I'll compare them to the average production of each pick (given here)

Underperforming Picks:
Thomas Robinson
Cole Aldrich
Xavier Henry
Brandon Rush
JR Giddens
Josh Selby

Overperforming Picks:
Markieff Morris
Marcus Morris
Darrel Arthur
Mario Chalmers
Tyshawn Taylor

Close to Expectations:
Darnell Jackson
Sasha Kaun
Keith Langford
Aaron Miles
Sherron Collins
Russell Robinson


So while KU has put a lot of players into the NBA, most have been late in the draft where quality players are rare from any school. Roughly a third of his picks have overperforming, while another third each has underperformed and performed to expectations.

Of the picks that have underperformed, KU fans would argue that Henry and Selby left before they should have and were not prepared for the NBA. The players were either bigs drafted fairly high or players that basically never played in the NBA and never had high expectations. On the other end, you have the Morris twins and some 2nd round guards.

What I'd argue is less that KU players tend to bust, and more that they tend to get drafted above their NBA skill level. Bill Self's system makes players look like better prospects than they actually are. In some ways, you could say that Bill Self is a coach that is better at getting the most out of his players than most NBA coaches, and most of his players have faults that were covered up by his system. This is probably the case for Robinson and Aldrich at least. Chalmers and Taylor both seem to show that his guards are not necessarily as likely to bust as his centers and PFs.

Wayne Simien, Aaron Miles, and Keith Langford were not recruited by Bill Self. They were recruited by Roy Williams. Julian Wright was recruited by Bill Self. I think you can only put the players who ended up playing in the league on this list.

I do agree that Bill Self's system allows players to look better than they actually are, especially big men. The offense runs through big men while guards usually have to create their own offense. Where you rank the players while Robinson had a rough first year its way too early to say he's a bust. I'd put Rush at close to performing to expectations. Near 10 ppg off the bench is pretty so far. Last year he was a big time part of GS's team and probably would have been huge off the bench if he doesn't tear his ACL. I'd say Markieff has overperformed his pick and expectations. I thought Marcus Morris earlier in the season with the Rockets was performing near his expectations but after the trade he struggled to find his shot and get off the bench.

[ISB]

Not a single one of them have exceeding expectations, but that doesn't really say much going forward. What it comes down to is that Self is a first class NCAA coach. He doesn't need NBA talent to put together top college teams.

[Joel Embust]

We know it doesn't say much about future prospects, but it's a pretty interesting list nonetheless.

[dorkestra]

i never understood lists like these. evaluate player on their own individual talent and ability. i highly doubt scouts even consider crap like this.

in terms of a conscious calculation, no, i can't imagine any scout would include this as a factor in their algorithm. what i do think though is that people form opinions about things, for example duke not being able to produce NBA players, when there are other teams just as deserving of this accusation as duke, but never mentioned.

this wasn't intended to be a predictor for the future; the comment about mclemore was tongue in cheek. but i was truly surprised at the lack of output from kansas prospects in the nba considering kansas has been ranked one through three in seemingly every ncaa tournament in fifteen years (slight hyperbole).

[teamjosh04]

Bill Self is on the same line as Coach K when it comes to getting the most out of his players. Even at Illinois he got guys like Robert Archibald and Luther Head among the first 31 guys to be selected in the draft

[CBB_Fan]

What it comes down to isn't so much "they all busted," and more "none of them became stars." Realistically, people have way too high of expectations for most players. They see a guy taken #22 overall and think he's going to turn into a 15/8 type of player, and that just does not happen very often. In fact, after the 11th pick the average player is less than a 10 PPG scorer. While you could get a star, the vast majority of the players picked in that spot become roleplayers or deep bench guys.

It just so happens that most of the KU players have been taken in that range and have basically performed to averages. Guys taken in the second round are arguably exceeding expectations as as second-rounders average less than 5PPG and 3RPG; almost half of the players selected in the second round never touch the court in their NBA career.

However, KU hasn't played the law of averages well. Instead of having some complete busts and some stars, they've pretty much just produced average to below-average players. If KU had more Paul Pierces, it would be easier to ignore the Josh Selbys. McLemore has the potential to be one of those stars that could help change the perception .

However, NBA teams need to look at coaching style when they draft players. Coaches like Howland for UCLA have made great NBA players look like average collegians (Kevin Love and Russell Westbrook), whereas Krzyzewski and Self make average to below average NBA players look like college PoYs. With a good coach, the players weaknesses are going to be hidden and every strength fully capitalized, which would NOT happen in the NBA.