Nylon calculus creates predictive model for this year's FA contracts

[Double Helix]

Andrew Johnson (Nylon Calculus)took last year's contracts and attempted to correlate which known statistics matched up best with the kinds of contracts that were handed out. He determined that the combination of playing time, offensive impact +/-, age, and positional expectations (defensive rebounds for bigs for example) seemed to correlate best and created a formula based around the weighting from last year while also working in the increased cap of this year. Here's his predictions:

Tier 1


Tier 2


No model is perfect and of course at first glance in tier 2 the big standout is Alan Crabbe whose mix of attributes and the kind of production desired at his position, including his still relatively young age, along with the fact that he played 26mpg last year... The model clearly loved. It's suggesting he could be worthy of almost a Middleton-ish raise (I say almost because Middleton's contract in the new cap would have been even higher and therefore isn't really the same conditions).

Keep in mind of course that this also wouldn't take into consideration any unique situations where veterans may be willing to take less to play for certain teams.

It also isn't going to factor in ticket sales or name value (Dwight Howard for example). Pretty interesting in my opinion. Good primer for where things could go? Agree? Disagree with his work? We all know offensive impact players do tend to get paid.

[John Murdoch]

Fournier gets more than Whiteside? sure..

[og15]

Well teams would be happy to get Wade at $10 million, that's one thing.

It's a model it's somewhat helpful. I don't expect any model to be perfect or take everything into account, but it gives some direction and gives some concrete numbers to possible free agent contracts which is helpful and least good for discussion.

[Double Helix]

Note: As indicated at the link the model values total playing time, as opposed to per minute averages, since that seemed to correlate back to last year's contracts best. This aspect of the model will impact anyone negatively who missed time last year due to injury and help anyone who played most (or all) of the 82 game season and big minutes.

[Double Helix]

Well teams would be happy to get Wade at $10 million, that's one thing.

It's a model it's somewhat helpful. I don't expect any model to be perfect or take everything into account, but it gives some direction and gives some concrete numbers to possible free agent contracts which is helpful and least good for discussion.

At the link it actually mentions Wade specifically and suggests he will likely get more than that (name value/legacy with the Heat to name but two elements) but the model is strictly looking at his age, missed games, offensive impact, positional expectations, etc and that's why he comes out lower.

[Hindenburg]

Seems way too low for 80% of the players

[Novocaine]

Looks like salaries are substantially undervalued. Under this model, how much will teams be paying in salaries next season?

I don't think Clarkson belongs in tier 1. Sceptical about Fournier and Marvin Williams as well. Most other oddities are noted in the article.

I'm expecting about ten max contracts: LeBron, Durant, Horford, Drummond,Whiteside, Conley, DeRozan, Barnes, Batum, Beal. Pretty sure Parsons will get one, but injuries add some uncertainty. Fournier and Dwight Howard in the bubble. Then Marvin Williams, Ryan Anderson, Biyombo.

I don't think these models are any match for conventional wisdom. A person totally ignorant about the NBA would do better predicting next year FA contracts by reading the ESPN website than by following this model.

[10DayContract]

I'd like to see his prediction for Kobe if Kobe didn't retire.

[r0drig0lac]

dat contract marvin

[DaddyCool19]

I think the forum agrees that a lot more Free Agents will end up with max contracts than in the OP.

[otwok]

from what I've been hearing, those contracts seem somewhat reasonable and rationale for the most part. (some exceptions)

[naabzor]

Marvin Williams 19.5 millions. In what world.

[Kobblehead]

Chandler Parsons the biggest bargain on the market.

[Arman_tanzarian]

Great share as usual DH. Just one quick question is there any particular reason you keep calling it "Neon" calculus? Or is this another one of those inside jokes like "panace" that I missed.

Haha good share though, a couple things to note.

- Bron isn't eligible for more that 27.5M starting salary this year with Cavs.
- KD most likely signs 1 year like Bron but at his starting max and then takes 4-5 years next year.

There rest should be right in line with what most guys will be getting,

[76ciology]

That's why agents hate analytics. Most times it costs them a lot of money by preventing teams to overpay players.

[MrBaynes]

This model just goes to show Joe Johnson will continue to be one of the most overpaid men in the Association. Nearly 15 mil...

[Capn'O]

There are a lot of contracts that really don't make sense here. Conley (VERY low), Batum (low), Williams (VERY high), Galloway (VERY high), and Beal (VERY low) for starters. Perhaps calculus was not the best type of math for this.

More power to JR Smith if he gets that deal, as well. Wowsers. And it doesn't max out Harrison Barnes either

[OkcSinceSGA]

Austin Rivers should be around bottom of tier 2 list. Lol Clarkson in tier 1.

[dreamshake]

It's Nylon. Nylon Calculus. Like a basketball net.

[Warriorfan]

Thanks for the post. Teams having to reach the spending floor, and an additional bump 2017 probably makes teams more willing to spend.