Official Speculation Thread (Pt. XLV "Re-Building" Edition)

ChildishGambino · Post #81 » by **ChildishGambino** » Sat Aug 11, 2012 8:47 pm

**Gambino creates thread for the whiners about the trade**
**Victims enter thread**
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Just kidding guys gotta lighten things up around here

OrlandO · Post #82 » by **OrlandO** » Sat Aug 11, 2012 8:47 pm

cvMagic wrote:I'm having a really hard time understanding how people are defending this trade. I get the people who don't love it but think that's the best we could do (this isn't targeted at you)...

But the people who thing the players we received are great, who think Rob will picks studs with those late first round picks, who think the players we chose this year were the steals of the draft, AND who think we're destined for a top pick this year???

Flawed logic at its finest. You can't have it all ways. It's impossible.

1. If Afflalo is as good as a lot of you believe...
2. And Harkless has burgeoning star potential...
3. And the big guy from Philly is a Polish Hammer waiting to happen...
4. And Nicholson and O'Quinn were draft night steals...
5. And Jacques is a stud coach in the mold of Pops just waiting for his chance...
6. and we still have the playoff-battle-tested core of Jameer, JJ, BBD, Hedo, and Harrington (for at least half a season)...

If all these things are true...

How is this team only winning 15-20 games?
How is this team getting a top 3 pick?

It doesn't add up. Because I can promise you one thing - those guys in #6 above, and that dude in #5 above, ain't losing games on purpose.

Our young guys can show a lot of promise and still lose plenty of games due to inexperience, chemistry issues, etc. Our veterans went 5-12 without Howard last season... should we expect better after throwing in a bunch of young new players and a new coach?

D12VCMagic · Post #83 » by **D12VCMagic** » Sat Aug 11, 2012 8:47 pm

If Houston was offering what we thought they were offering, the deal would've happened. Dwight and his people scared them off and successfully forced themselves to a big market.

cvMagic · Post #84 » by **cvMagic** » Sat Aug 11, 2012 8:47 pm

bigdogdylan5 wrote:
cvMagic wrote:I'm having a really hard time understanding how people are defending this trade. I get the people who don't love it but think that's the best we could do (this isn't targeted at you)...

But the people who thing the players we received are great, who think Rob will picks studs with those late first round picks, who think the players we chose this year were the steals of the draft, AND who think we're destined for a top pick this year???

Flawed logic at its finest. You can't have it all ways. It's impossible.

1. If Afflalo is as good as a lot of you believe...
2. And Harkless has burgeoning star potential...
3. And the big guy from Philly is a Polish Hammer waiting to happen...
4. And Nicholson and O'Quinn were draft night steals...
5. And Jacques is a stud coach in the mold of Pops just waiting for his chance...
6. and we still have the playoff-battle-tested core of Jameer, JJ, BBD, Hedo, and Harrington (for at least half a season)...

If all these things are true...

How is this team only winning 15-20 games?
How is this team getting a top 3 pick?

It doesn't add up. Because I can promise you one thing - those guys in #6 above, and that dude in #5 above, ain't losing games on purpose.

So many things wrong with this Nicholson Harkless and O'Quinn are going to take some years to develop i am not saying Harkless is gonna come in and play like Lebron but he has star potential and is 19. Harrington BBD and Affalo will be top preformers this season doesnt make them taking this team to the playoffs but they will put up decent numbers to be moved for draft picks or youth. STOP being so butt hurt and bitching about this trade without knowing what Henny is planning

Dude - get over yourself. No one said anything about feelings. That just shows you're the one bringing feelings into this.

My point above is simple...

The Magic are nowhere near the worst team in the league right now.
I NEVER said playoffs. The blind homers on this forum really need to work on their reading comprehension skills.

I'm telling you this team is better than you think it is, as constructed. Good enough to knock themselves into the 8-10 pick range, outside the area where the elite talent is.

This whole trade is predicated on the Magic being bad enough to get a top 5 pick.
Why?
Because they didn't receive any additional lottery picks in the trade, nor do they have any players anyone would realistically trade a lottery pick for.

THAT'S WHY A LOT OF US DISLIKE THE TRADE

So for the Magic, it's suck the most in the NBA or bust.
And right now - they do not suck enough.

tiderulz · Post #85 » by **tiderulz** » Sat Aug 11, 2012 8:49 pm

PeePee la Fritz wrote:
tiderulz wrote:
Nyce_1 wrote:Who cares about the protection on the picks. They're still better than what the nets were if offering. And with the scouts we currently have, I have no doubt we'll get decent-to-good players with EVERY pick. Look what the Spurs have continuously done with their picks late in the round. Look what we did this year at #19 & #49. Granted, they haven't played yet but I trust we'll actually get value from those protected picks.

i dont know. The scouts outside of Henny came from Detroit, and they havent been exactly setting the world on fire with their draft picks the past few years

Seriously?! Last time I checked Monroe and Knight were turning into studs. I like the direction Detroit is heading

singler? macklin? terrico white? austin daye? Jonas jerebko? DJ white?

easy to hit when you have lottery picks, we wont have lottery picks for the most part.

tiderulz · Post #86 » by **tiderulz** » Sat Aug 11, 2012 8:50 pm

Nyce_1 wrote:
tiderulz wrote:
Nyce_1 wrote:Who cares about the protection on the picks. They're still better than what the nets were if offering. And with the scouts we currently have, I have no doubt we'll get decent-to-good players with EVERY pick. Look what the Spurs have continuously done with their picks late in the round. Look what we did this year at #19 & #49. Granted, they haven't played yet but I trust we'll actually get value from those protected picks.

i dont know. The scouts outside of Henny came from Detroit, and they havent been exactly setting the world on fire with their draft picks the past few years

We also got a well respected scout from Chicago. Regardless, we finally have a staff that values the draft and will put in the necessary scouting & research to utilize the picks. this is a new regime and I truly feel any first or second round pick will be valuable.

i do agree with this. I never felt like the Magic spent much time or money evaluating prospects for the draft, maybe that is why they never really kept picks and thru them as add ons into trades

arkknight1988 · Post #87 » by **arkknight1988** » Sat Aug 11, 2012 8:52 pm

tiderulz wrote:
Nyce_1 wrote:Who cares about the protection on the picks. They're still better than what the nets were if offering. And with the scouts we currently have, I have no doubt we'll get decent-to-good players with EVERY pick. Look what the Spurs have continuously done with their picks late in the round. Look what we did this year at #19 & #49. Granted, they haven't played yet but I trust we'll actually get value from those protected picks.

i dont know. The scouts outside of Henny came from Detroit, and they havent been exactly setting the world on fire with their draft picks the past few years

we got the bulls lead scout

D12VCMagic · Post #88 » by **D12VCMagic** » Sat Aug 11, 2012 8:55 pm

tiderulz wrote:singler? macklin? terrico white? austin daye? Jonas jerebko? DJ white?

easy to hit when you have lottery picks, we wont have lottery picks for the most part.

Most of those guys were 2nd round picks, you are really reaching here dude.

TheMagicOne · Post #89 » by **TheMagicOne** » Sat Aug 11, 2012 8:58 pm

It would seem that the plan that is laid out is to use our expiring contracts & trade exceptions to help other teams get under the cap so they can chase a big free agent in the next two years. The next big fish to hit the free agent market is Durant in 2016 OMG that is a long time away.

Just looking at our salary structure, you have the following:

2012-2013 Set to Expire -
#1 - JJ, McRoberts & Harper (Collectively that allows the Magic to take back $12.3 million in salary from a team looking to get under the cap for next summer.
#2 - Ryan Anderson Trade Exception
#3 - Howard Trade Exception

Speaking of trade exceptions, the Cavs used the one from the LeBron trade to get the #1 pick out of the Clippers that ended up being Irving.

2013-2014 Set to Expire -
#1 - Hedo, QRich & Harrington - (Harrington has a buy out if a team acquires him) allows the Magic to take up to $27.4 million back in salary.

If you follow this blue print we are tanking for a minimum of 2 years, maybe more, because as a team you would attempt to use your expiring contracts to help other teams get under the cap the following summer. Which means we would not be chasing a free agent for 3 years.

2015 NBA Free Agent Class will have - Kevin Love, Rajon Rondo, LaMarcus Aldridge, Thaddeus Young, Marc Gasol, DeAndre Jordan

If you pushed it out one more year to 2016 the free agent class currently looks like this - Mike Conley, Horford, Durant, Galinari, Noah

My best guess is that Rob has laid out a 5 year plan to the Magic ownership on how he will methodically build the team. How using the traded player exceptions and expiring contracts to acquire draft picks will be the way to go. Amass talent and picks and control as many drafts as possible to position ourselves to land a could top free agents when the time is right to strike.

BY the way I saw somewhere where the comparison on Nikola Vucevic was an white version of Andrew Bynum with more range, but the same less athletic type of player potential.

arkknight1988 · Post #90 » by **arkknight1988** » Sat Aug 11, 2012 9:04 pm

if harkless was in next years draft he would be a lottery pick. probably better than anyone we would get with that toronto pick which should land 10-14.

Post #91 » by **Def Swami** » Sat Aug 11, 2012 9:04 pm

Steve Kyler ‏@stevekylerNBA
RT @jothb27: @vishgos01 Afflalo/Harkless/Nerlens Noel wouldn't be too bad....-- > I can not endorse Nerlens at this point.

Steve Kyler ‏@stevekylerNBA
RT @jothb27: ---> Nerlens has a lot of work to do at Kentucky and I think Shabazz or even Isaiah Austin are further along.

Steve Kyler ‏@stevekylerNBA
RT @sheimans: what draft is stronger? 2013 or 2014? ---> neither draft offers a bona fide star... lots of projects.

Steve Kyler ‏@stevekylerNBA
RT @cvas: ---> Nerlens has a lot of work to do, and given where he is now... he's a HUGE risk in 2013...

Hasheem Thabeet?

Steve Kyler ‏@stevekylerNBA
RT @Jopatmc1967: big men with offensive post skills are so much rarer than perimeter guys. <--- Nerlens has no post skills.

AshBlackstone · Post #92 » by **AshBlackstone** » Sat Aug 11, 2012 9:07 pm

cvMagic wrote:
bigdogdylan5 wrote:
cvMagic wrote:I'm having a really hard time understanding how people are defending this trade. I get the people who don't love it but think that's the best we could do (this isn't targeted at you)...

But the people who thing the players we received are great, who think Rob will picks studs with those late first round picks, who think the players we chose this year were the steals of the draft, AND who think we're destined for a top pick this year???

Flawed logic at its finest. You can't have it all ways. It's impossible.

1. If Afflalo is as good as a lot of you believe...
2. And Harkless has burgeoning star potential...
3. And the big guy from Philly is a Polish Hammer waiting to happen...
4. And Nicholson and O'Quinn were draft night steals...
5. And Jacques is a stud coach in the mold of Pops just waiting for his chance...
6. and we still have the playoff-battle-tested core of Jameer, JJ, BBD, Hedo, and Harrington (for at least half a season)...

If all these things are true...

How is this team only winning 15-20 games?
How is this team getting a top 3 pick?

It doesn't add up. Because I can promise you one thing - those guys in #6 above, and that dude in #5 above, ain't losing games on purpose.

So many things wrong with this Nicholson Harkless and O'Quinn are going to take some years to develop i am not saying Harkless is gonna come in and play like Lebron but he has star potential and is 19. Harrington BBD and Affalo will be top preformers this season doesnt make them taking this team to the playoffs but they will put up decent numbers to be moved for draft picks or youth. STOP being so butt hurt and bitching about this trade without knowing what Henny is planning

Dude - get over yourself. No one said anything about feelings. That just shows you're the one bringing feelings into this.

My point above is simple...

The Magic are nowhere near the worst team in the league right now.
I NEVER said playoffs. The blind homers on this forum really need to work on their reading comprehension skills.

I'm telling you this team is better than you think it is, as constructed. Good enough to knock themselves into the 8-10 pick range, outside the area where the elite talent is.

This whole trade is predicated on the Magic being bad enough to get a top 5 pick.
Why?
Because they didn't receive any additional lottery picks in the trade, nor do they have any players anyone would realistically trade a lottery pick for.

THAT'S WHY A LOT OF US DISLIKE THE TRADE

So for the Magic, it's suck the most in the NBA or bust.
And right now - they do not suck enough.

I agree with a lot of your points. I hated the trade, and think we could have and should have done a lot better in the deal.

But I do think this team is horrible. Afflalo is massively overrated. Anyone who thinks he's a good defender, didn't watch him play last season. He has completely stopped playing defense. His PER last year in his best season allegedly...was only 14. That's horrible. He's basically just a shooter.

Glen Davis is a good role player, but inefficient as a guy who has to carry the load in the post. Jameer Nelson is a below average to average starting point guard in the league now. I would rank him at around 15-18 amongst the league's starters. Hedo is finshed. One of the worst starting 3s in the league.

This team will lose a ton of games. 25 wins is the ceiling, and to be honest...I think this collection of players without Howard and Anderson is bad enough to only win as few as 12 or 13 games. We're bad. We're Bobcat bad now.

But I do side with you on the point that the trade was horrific. But we might think it was a bad deal for different reasons.

And now that Dwight is gone, we'll be a bottom 3 defensive team. We have no experienced veterans defenders on this team right now...especially up front.

Magic#1 · Post #93 » by **Magic#1** » Sat Aug 11, 2012 9:09 pm

arkknight1988 wrote:if harkless was in next years draft he would be a lottery pick. probably better than anyone we would get with that toronto pick which should land 10-14.

That's actually not a bad point.

PeePee la Fritz · Post #94 » by **PeePee la Fritz** » Sat Aug 11, 2012 9:18 pm

Magic#1 wrote:
arkknight1988 wrote:if harkless was in next years draft he would be a lottery pick. probably better than anyone we would get with that toronto pick which should land 10-14.

That's actually not a bad point.

I think a All-Confrence year would push Harkless into the 5-8 range of this next draft. Great Point!

magicman123 · Post #95 » by **magicman123** » Sat Aug 11, 2012 9:18 pm

arkknight1988 wrote:if harkless was in next years draft he would be a lottery pick. probably better than anyone we would get with that toronto pick which should land 10-14.

true.....and... "if orton was in next years draft he would be a lottery pick" or... "earl clark is our first round pick next year" :wink:

jk, hopefully harkless becomes a legit starter

The1llness · Post #96 » by **The1llness** » Sat Aug 11, 2012 9:19 pm

The spin by Denton on the Magic's website is an insult to our intelligence.

First of all, the whole notion that this was done for cap space completely dismisses the fact that the Magic would have been under the cap regardless in 2014.

Secondly, there has only been two instances in NBA history (and I could argue all major sports) where the best player on a championship team has been a free agent. In all other instances these players were developed via the draft or acquired through trade.

Third, who is going to be on the market that is going to be a game-changer that would want to come here. All the major FA's are going into their late 20's, early 20's and won't fit in with the youth of this team.

Finally, the Magic aren't going to be the only players in free agency. Just going through hoopshype salaries there are at least a dozen or so teams that have less than $30M committed in the summer of 14.

The best the Magic can do with their cap room is overpay a free agent based on their potential and hope they play up to their contract. Sort of like they did with McGrady.

The1llness · Post #97 » by **The1llness** » Sat Aug 11, 2012 9:24 pm

As for tanking? I think Hennigan need's to ship out all the older vets to contenders because as bad as the team looks on paper, all these guys are proud vets who know they have no future with the team. They're not gonna sit idly by and tank for the Magic's long term benefit.

Remember, the Magic weren't supposed to go .500 with Darrell Armstrong and Bo Outlaw.

MAGICian619 · Post #98 » by **MAGICian619** » Sat Aug 11, 2012 9:25 pm

Anyone have any idea what's numbers the new guys will be wearing?

MagicTownBaller · Post #99 » by **MagicTownBaller** » Sat Aug 11, 2012 9:26 pm

@arsenal6106,

Here is the updated stats. Copy and paste them into the OP whenever you can. Also, please change the number in the title of the thread to XLV. I made a mistake on some of my threads and need you to correct that so we can avoid further confusion. Thanks!

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The OP is currently at 4,370 5/15 pages total.
One page equals 15 posts

arsenal6106 · Post #100 » by **arsenal6106** » Sat Aug 11, 2012 9:27 pm

TheMagicOne wrote:It would seem that the plan that is laid out is to use our expiring contracts & trade exceptions to help other teams get under the cap so they can chase a big free agent in the next two years. The next big fish to hit the free agent market is Durant in 2016 OMG that is a long time away.

Just looking at our salary structure, you have the following:

2012-2013 Set to Expire -
#1 - JJ, McRoberts & Harper (Collectively that allows the Magic to take back $12.3 million in salary from a team looking to get under the cap for next summer.
#2 - Ryan Anderson Trade Exception
#3 - Howard Trade Exception

Speaking of trade exceptions, the Cavs used the one from the LeBron trade to get the #1 pick out of the Clippers that ended up being Irving.

Can you elaborate or provide a link? How did they end up using their 14 mill TPE?

Thanks!