Post#33 » by rk2023 » Tue Feb 7, 2023 5:43 am
My predictions, maybe we'll all see how these age in 3 years' time if this thread is still up:
1. Jokic - Perhaps he isn't *as* game breaking as he is right now, but consistency might be his legal middle name.
2. Doncic - Time will tell how this Kyrie deal works out, maybe it helps him do "more with less" as an offensive engine and gives him off-ball aspects to improve upon.
3. Antetokounmpo - How his offensive game ages as he loses burst and puts more mileage on his legs will be something to look for. He has potential as an off-ball big too, I'd like to see Milwaukee tap into it more.
4. Tatum - Somewhat underrated as an offensive primary, with improvements still being made / to be made as a decision maker in the half-court (particularly with playing stronger. Starting to become a steady all-defensive player, underrated that he isn't even 25 yet.
5. Gilgeous-Alexander - The one player whose stock i'm the highest on within this pool. I think he continues to progress as an offensive primary while adding more scoring counters to his game, taking steps as a playmaker too. His defense is probably marginal at the current moment, but the tools are there (particularly length)
6. Williamson - This might be more a promise/ceiling pick, as durability and health are by far the biggest concerns of Zion and his development. When he's on the court, his ability to finish at the basket (the catalyst of his scoring) is already all-time levels. It seems like his defense has improved somewhat this year too.
7. Morant - He's having somewhat of a down year and has been nursing some less serious injuries iirc. I think he's likely a better finisher, better scoring right at the basket, and as a playmaker (though Shai is better all-around). They're similar from an aesthetic standpoint, with Ja having more lift and glide. Defensively, he may be worse but has some tools off of his athleticism - including rim protection. Getting him to buy-in is something to look for.
8. Mitchell - As he's older than most of the players here who likely haven't peaked, i'm not quite sure how much higher he'll get in absolute terms as a player - but his scoring (and overall offensive impact) have been the best of his career while I see him as a marginally positive defender.
9. Booker - Another player whose consistency I like, I think Booker is remarkable from a touch economy standpoint and is very active moving-the-ball. A very quick decision shot-maker who can get to his spots whether on the ball or not. Rim pressure is something I would like to see more. There isn't much that gives him a great physical defensive advantage, but he puts in the effort and is cerebral on that end to the point where he's another slight positive. Like Mitchell, I see the age concerns here.
10. Young - I'm not the highest on his ceiling already, as I don't see how he can make a major leap on offensive at this point (he's much more on ball than the two most effective point-guards of his stature in Chris Paul and Steve Nash, and a scorer that too). A volume scorer to elaborate, his efficiency in the RS lately and in the playoffs against Miami have me skeptical of how he fares against switch-heavy and lengthy schemes. I think he's a great playmaker for what it's worth, but could be a better decision maker. I don't think there's much to hit home on defense; if he gets to even close to a neutral value, I think his ceiling goes up in this pool.
I didn't include 2020 onwards draftees or Curry/Durant/Leonard/Davis/Lillard just for simplicity, they could have a chance at being here.
EDIT: Completely whiffed and forgot Embiid, I would slot him between Giannis and Tatum. Consistency in motor, decision-making (already improving in terms of scoring blindness), and not being injured / playing such a high-risk and dangerous game on his body all are red flags I have. I think his natural talent and acumen as a scorer is amazing, that said - although that holding up in the PS due to health has been a scarcity.
Mogspan wrote:I think they see the super rare combo of high IQ with freakish athleticism and overrate the former a bit, kind of like a hot girl who is rather articulate being thought of as “super smart.” I don’t know kind of a weird analogy, but you catch my drift.
