As Blue Jays enjoy hard-earned competitive window, long-term challenges loom - Sportsnet.caDUNEDIN, Fla. – To fully appreciate how well the Toronto Blue Jays are positioned right now, all it takes is a glance back at franchise history.
Since emerging from six years of expansion misery with 11 consecutive winning seasons, the best they’ve done are the three-year bursts of better-than-.500-play from 1998-2000, 2006-2008, 2014-2016 and their current run, which started in 2020 and is only picking up steam.
Four of the six largest contracts ever handed out by the Blue Jays have come in the last three years. This year, their projected player payroll will take them into the Competitive Balance Tax, or CBT, for the first time. The ongoing renovation of Rogers Centre, particularly the second phase next off-season, is part of the revenue growth that underpins the increased spending.
There is ambition in pursuit of new organizational heights.
At the same time, this is also where things get trickiest for the Blue Jays.
The finishing touches in building a World Series winner are always hardest. More guaranteed money on the books means less flexibility each off-season. And the current competitive window could easily close prematurely if the potential roster churn coming in the years ahead isn’t managed right.
Consider the following free-agency eligibilities:
• After 2023 – Matt Chapman, Hyun Jin Ryu, Kevin Kiermaier, Brandon Belt and Anthony Bass,
• After 2024 – Danny Jansen, Yusei Kikuchi, Adam Cimber and Trevor Richards.
• After 2025 – Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, Cavan Biggio, Chris Bassitt, Jordan Romano, Tim Mayza and Erik Swanson.
• After 2026 – George Springer, Kevin Gausman, Jose Berrios (opt out), Daulton Varsho, Santiago Espinal and Alejandro Kirk.
Combine that with the recent usage of the farm system to augment the club – dealing three of the past five first-round picks since the 2021 trade deadline (Austin Martin for Berrios, Gunnar Hoglund for Chapman and Jordan Groshans for Bass and Zach Pop) plus top prospect Gabriel Moreno (for Varsho) in December – and there could be a cliff to avoid in the distance.
Now, the Blue Jays can simply play out their window, backfill as needed and use the upcoming flexibility to adapt based on what their post-2025 situation dictates. Things change fast, good and bad. Still, without retaining one of, if not both, Guerrero and Bichette, their most important young talents, pushing out their run over the long-term is hard to imagine.