Around the League: 2022-23 Season 3.0

[Murray_17]

how many percent is the difference between an elite wing defenders dfg% between Tobias or Niang and an elite wing defender? 5%? 10%?

If a team score 100 points in 100 possessions a 10% difference is 10 points, which is the gap between the worst and the best defensive teams on the league.

If instead, we talk about an individual player diminishing in 10% the scoring of a 20 pts guy, that is 2 pts, which still is the difference between the best defensive team and the 10th one.


Those are massive gaps. 2% or 3% is already a great impact.

[76ciology]

how many percent is the difference between an elite wing defenders dfg% between Tobias or Niang and an elite wing defender? 5%? 10%?

If a team score 100 points in 100 possessions a 10% difference is 10 points, which is the gap between the worst and the best defensive teams on the league.

If instead, we talk about an individual player diminishing in 10% the scoring of a 20 pts guy, that is 2 pts, which still is the difference between the best defensive team and the 10th one.


Those are massive gaps. 2% or 3% is already a great impact.

Im talking about points per possession.

Let’s say Harden averages 1.00 ppp on ISO.

Let’s say Jaden McDaniels have a dfg% of -5% (he’s nowhere near that), then that’s .95 ppp on ISO.

And if Tobi can only have a dfg% of 0%, then that’s .05 points per possession difference.

Points per 100 depends on a lot of factors than individual defense. For instance Jalen McDaniels has 118 DRtg that is compared to Niang at 109 DRtg, do you then buy to the narrative that Niang is way better on defense than McDaniels?

You can’t just sub guys and think the team will be better on defense, our best 5 man unit generates 107 DRtg and this involves Tucker and Tobi.

While on the other hand there’s a big difference between a 40% shooter on 3 (1.2 EV) and a 30% shooter on 3 (.9 EV)

Its .3 vs .05

A guy who is neutral on defense with 40% 3pt shooter is much better down the stretch than an elite defender with 30% 3pt shooting.

This is why since Morey took over. We never really bought into these “we need lengthy swingman” approach.

[Murray_17]

Im talking about points per possession.

Let’s say Harden averages 1.00 ppp on ISO.

Let’s say Jaden McDaniels have a dfg% of -5% (he’s nowhere near that), then that’s .95 ppp on ISO.

And if Tobi can only have a dfg% of 0%, then that’s .05 points per possession difference.

This example doesn't make sense, are you saying Jaden guards Harden? why McDaniels having a dfg& of -5% would decrease Harden? also, how many possessions is Harden taking an ISO? why would McDaniels effect on his ISO be flat on the total?

Points per 100 depends on a lot of factors than individual defense. For instance Jalen McDaniels has 118 DRtg that is compared to Niang at 109 DRtg, do you then buy to the narrative that Niang is way better on defense than McDaniels?

You can’t just sub guys and think the team will be better on defense, our best 5 man unit generates 107 DRtg and this involves Tucker and Tobi.

Yes, which is why i talked about lineups and optimized defense, you went with individual impact.

While on the other hand there’s a big difference between a 40% shooter on 3 (1.2 EV) and a 30% shooter on 3 (.9 EV)

Its .3 vs .05

A guy who is neutral on defense with 40% 3pt shooter is much better down the stretch than an elite defender with 30% 3pt shooting.

This is relative to frequency. Your past example was bad, but if Harden ISO 30% of the time and your "neutral defender" take 5% of the available shots then the difference is a lot smaller than wnat you're saying.

More over, that "neutral defender" efficiency is related to volume so if you reduce Harden ISO PPP, that could probably scalate to the shooter because he needs to takes more shots so the defense rotates to him more usually making Harden probailities to ISO more easy.

As a result the PPP of the "neutral defender" goes down too. This is why spacing matters in offense too.

This is why since Morey took over. We never really bought into these “we need lengthy swingman” approach.

We just traded for McDaniels

[76ciology]

Yes, im talking a hypothetical situation when mcdaniels defend Harden.

If its confusing for you, then let’s say its doncic instead of Harden. Where the -5% dfg would decrease his points per shot from 1.00 to .95 with is just .05 pts

While the 10% in 3pt shooting from 40% to 30% is quite big

Dfg%
Mcdaniels -.3dfg% 118DRtg
Niang -.9dfg% 109DRtg
Tobias -1.4 dfg% 111DRtg
Tucker -1.7 dfg% 113DRtg

[Murray_17]

Yes, im talking a hypothetical situation when mcdaniels defend Harden.

If its confusing for you, then let’s say its doncic instead of Harden. Where the -5% dfg would decrease his points per shot from 1.00 to .95 with is just .05 pts

While the 10% in 3pt shooting from 40% to 30% is quite big

Dfg%
Mcdaniels -.3dfg%
Niang -.9dfg%
Tobias -1.4 dfg%
Tucker -1.7 dfg%

Yeah, my point still stand.

If you take 1.4% of a Harden/Luka ISO the effect can be as great as reducing that 10% from a spot shooter and that also affects the shooter because he need to take more shots.

Your previous post was about how defense is more than individual contribution, yet your argument about the effect on offense is individual contributions....

[Jailblazers7]

I gotta side with Murray on this one. Reducing the effectiveness of an opponents top player is more valuable than the shooting gap between Harris/McDaniels on their low shot volume. Especially because it won’t change how teams guard us in the playoffs. Teams are gonna sell out on Harden, Embiid, & Maxey and bet that Harris, McDaniels, Tucker, Melton don’t make enough plays to require a strategy shift.

Tobias hasn’t played well since getting injured against MIL so hopefully it’s just that he needs some time to get right.

[M2J]

I gotta side with Murray on this one. Reducing the effectiveness of an opponents top player is more valuable than the shooting gap between Harris/McDaniels on their low shot volume. Especially because it won’t change how teams guard us in the playoffs. Teams are gonna sell out on Harden, Embiid, & Maxey and bet that Harris, McDaniels, Tucker, Melton don’t make enough plays to require a strategy shift.

Tobias hasn’t played well since getting injured against MIL so hopefully it’s just that he needs some time to get right.

I would say he's been better than McDaniels though. Just look at the defensive difference between the pacer and wolves games. Last night Tobias sucked offensively, but did hit a big shot that capped their run to get back into the game, and got to the line a few times. But he defended The guards a lot, and that's huge to know that he can do that.

Jalen and Tucker are not high enough volume in terms of shot attempts, not to mention 3pt attempts. The only reason I somewhat favor Jalen over Tucker with the starters is that I think he is more active in getting extra possessions, helps with the transition defense, and a more willing shooter. But you can't have 2 guys that teams are willing to leave open. I don't think they should start even one. That makes them too reliant on Joel and James, taking and making contested shots.

The additional spacing I think is what can help this team fulfill the offensive potential they need to win a title and make up for some of the defensive deficit. Even if Tucker or Jalen just took the open ones and hit 2 or 3.

[Jailblazers7]

Yeah I agree. Tobias is a good defender and his major issue is that his confidence comes & goes. He will and should be the starter. The odd man out in the playoffs is likely Niang with Jalen taking his minutes. I’d draw up a play to get Niang a 3 & if he misses it I’d sit him the rest of the game lol.

[Sixerscan]

There’s for sure a difference between how teams cover Tobias and the way they cover those other guys. And if they don’t, unlike those guys he can dribble so he can quickly attack the basket if they get him the ball. mcDaniels sort of can but not quite.

[Negrodamus]

Denver down to Detroit at half. Unfortunately all the media members who vote for MVP are watching their brackets instead of the Jokic-led Nuggets being exposed.

[Stanford]

Denver down to Detroit at half. Unfortunately all the media members who vote for MVP are watching their brackets instead of the Jokic-led Nuggets being exposed.

Jokic's DBPM will probably go up as a result

[Kobblehead]

What's his DORK per 36 tonight, though?

[Sixerscan]

What's his DORK per 36 tonight, though?

36

[ExplosionsInDaSky]

The Pacers have beaten Mill-Ee-Wok-Ehh

[Stanford]

TJ McConnell the goat

[76ciology]

Tatum shoots 39% in the paint (non RA) and 39% in mid range.

[76ciology]

I like the Bucks having the 1st seed.
- Cavs will be a tough match-up for them. Because Cavs have size in the 4&5 positions. Season record is split between those two teams at 2-2
- I’m more confident in beating the Bucks with homecourt than Celts with homecourt. But I believe we can beat both with homecourt

[XtremeDunkz]

We won't catch either. Our schedule is just so much harder.

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[76ciology]

In 2003—20 years ago—25 players averaged 20 points or more for the season. In 2013, that number fell to 9. This season, 42 players are averaging 20+ points outright, 45 if you round upward from 19.7.

[Kobblehead]

Looks like Lonzo Ball's career will turn out like Jonathan Isaac. Both are likely done in the NBA now due to injury.