2023 Draft Discussion Part 4

[HumbleRen]

Brandin Podziemski, Santa Clara
vs. all competition: 10.0 BPM
vs. top 100 teams: 6.5 BPM
vs. top 50 teams: 3.9 BPM

Brandon Miller, Alabama
vs. all competition: 11.0 BPM
vs. top 100 teams: 9.9 BPM
vs. top 50 teams: 6.5 BPM

Taylor Hendricks, UCF
vs. all competition: 7.1 BPM
vs. top 100 teams: 6.4 BPM
vs. top 50 teams: 5.1 BPM

Keyonte George, Baylor
vs. all competition: 4.7
vs. top 100 competition: 3.9
vs. top 50 competition: 2.9

GG Jackson, South Carolina
vs. all competition: -0.5 BPM
vs. top 100 teams: -1.6 BPM
vs. top 50 teams: -1.9 BPM

https://theswishtheory.com/nba-draft/2023/05/the-2023-nba-drafts-whiteboard-prospects/

[WuTang_CMB]

Brandin Podziemski, Santa Clara
vs. all competition: 10.0 BPM
vs. top 100 teams: 6.5 BPM
vs. top 50 teams: 3.9 BPM

Brandon Miller, Alabama
vs. all competition: 11.0 BPM
vs. top 100 teams: 9.9 BPM
vs. top 50 teams: 6.5 BPM

Taylor Hendricks, UCF
vs. all competition: 7.1 BPM
vs. top 100 teams: 6.4 BPM
vs. top 50 teams: 5.1 BPM

Keyonte George, Baylor
vs. all competition: 4.7
vs. top 100 competition: 3.9
vs. top 50 competition: 2.9

GG Jackson, South Carolina
vs. all competition: -0.5 BPM
vs. top 100 teams: -1.6 BPM
vs. top 50 teams: -1.9 BPM

https://theswishtheory.com/nba-draft/2023/05/the-2023-nba-drafts-whiteboard-prospects/

Hendricks can easily be one of the better players in this draft. His game is better suited for the NBA too.

[REJECTEDBYCLARK]

We don't have to worry about Jackson, besides blatantly not being a Masai pick Masai also made a comment about individual talent not being enough we need players who play as a team/cohesive unit. Jackson has demonstrated 0 to suggest he is or will ever be one of those players.

[HumbleRen]

Brandin Podziemski, Santa Clara
vs. all competition: 10.0 BPM
vs. top 100 teams: 6.5 BPM
vs. top 50 teams: 3.9 BPM

Brandon Miller, Alabama
vs. all competition: 11.0 BPM
vs. top 100 teams: 9.9 BPM
vs. top 50 teams: 6.5 BPM

Taylor Hendricks, UCF
vs. all competition: 7.1 BPM
vs. top 100 teams: 6.4 BPM
vs. top 50 teams: 5.1 BPM

Keyonte George, Baylor
vs. all competition: 4.7
vs. top 100 competition: 3.9
vs. top 50 competition: 2.9

GG Jackson, South Carolina
vs. all competition: -0.5 BPM
vs. top 100 teams: -1.6 BPM
vs. top 50 teams: -1.9 BPM

https://theswishtheory.com/nba-draft/2023/05/the-2023-nba-drafts-whiteboard-prospects/

Hendricks can easily be one of the better players in this draft. His game is better suited for the NBA too.

He's going top 5.

[DreamTeam09]

We don't have to worry about Jackson, besides blatantly not being a Masai pick Masai also made a comment about individual talent not being enough we need players who play as a team/cohesive unit. Jackson has demonstrated 0 to suggest he is or will ever be one of those players.

Don't you believe you're a little too hard on these prospects. None of them are finish products, they have time to adjust, get better, become more experienced. Especially when evaluating freshmans

[REJECTEDBYCLARK]

We don't have to worry about Jackson, besides blatantly not being a Masai pick Masai also made a comment about individual talent not being enough we need players who play as a team/cohesive unit. Jackson has demonstrated 0 to suggest he is or will ever be one of those players.

Don't you believe you're a little too hard on these prospects. None of them are finish products, they have time to adjust, get better, become more experienced. Especially when evaluating freshmans

No, there are a number of freshmen I like. GG Jackson just plays the game the wrong way regardless of his shooting efficiency numbers and potential to improve upon them.

[Bruin]

Wonder who we’re sending to the lottery. Doubt it’s Fred again cause of Free agency

I’m guessing it’s Masai or Scottie. Scottie would be fun to see cause im sure he’d make for some good wholesome content on tv

[WuTang_CMB]

Wonder who we’re sending to the lottery. Doubt it’s Fred again cause of Free agency

I’m guessing it’s Masai or Scottie. Scottie would be fun to see cause im sure he’d make for some good wholesome content on tv

OG would be the best. Stoic face for wemby

[Dalek]

Brandin Podziemski, Santa Clara
vs. all competition: 10.0 BPM
vs. top 100 teams: 6.5 BPM
vs. top 50 teams: 3.9 BPM

Brandon Miller, Alabama
vs. all competition: 11.0 BPM
vs. top 100 teams: 9.9 BPM
vs. top 50 teams: 6.5 BPM

Taylor Hendricks, UCF
vs. all competition: 7.1 BPM
vs. top 100 teams: 6.4 BPM
vs. top 50 teams: 5.1 BPM

Keyonte George, Baylor
vs. all competition: 4.7
vs. top 100 competition: 3.9
vs. top 50 competition: 2.9

GG Jackson, South Carolina
vs. all competition: -0.5 BPM
vs. top 100 teams: -1.6 BPM
vs. top 50 teams: -1.9 BPM

https://theswishtheory.com/nba-draft/2023/05/the-2023-nba-drafts-whiteboard-prospects/

This data is in Bart Torvik for all college players. Here are a few guys who get better playing better competition (aka 'the gamers'):

Jordan Hawkins
vs. all competition: 7.4 BPM
vs. top 100 competition: 8.7 BPM
vs. top 50 competition: 8.7 BPM

Colby Jones
vs. all competition: 6.4 BPM
vs. top 100 competition: 7.0 BPM
vs. top 50 competition: 6.7 BPM

[WuTang_CMB]

Brandin Podziemski, Santa Clara
vs. all competition: 10.0 BPM
vs. top 100 teams: 6.5 BPM
vs. top 50 teams: 3.9 BPM

Brandon Miller, Alabama
vs. all competition: 11.0 BPM
vs. top 100 teams: 9.9 BPM
vs. top 50 teams: 6.5 BPM

Taylor Hendricks, UCF
vs. all competition: 7.1 BPM
vs. top 100 teams: 6.4 BPM
vs. top 50 teams: 5.1 BPM

Keyonte George, Baylor
vs. all competition: 4.7
vs. top 100 competition: 3.9
vs. top 50 competition: 2.9

GG Jackson, South Carolina
vs. all competition: -0.5 BPM
vs. top 100 teams: -1.6 BPM
vs. top 50 teams: -1.9 BPM

https://theswishtheory.com/nba-draft/2023/05/the-2023-nba-drafts-whiteboard-prospects/

This data is in Bart Torvik for all college players. Here are a few guys who get better playing better competition (aka 'the gamers'):

Jordan Hawkins
vs. all competition: 7.4 BPM
vs. top 100 competition: 8.7 BPM
vs. top 50 competition: 8.7 BPM

Colby Jones
vs. all competition: 6.4 BPM
vs. top 100 competition: 7.0 BPM
vs. top 50 competition: 6.7 BPM

Hawkin's offensive production is too good. Hope that kid goes to the right team. I'd gladly take him. Colby sneaky good. Who ever gets him in the 20's gets a steal.

[REJECTEDBYCLARK]

Hawkins improved efficiency vs. top 50-100 competition doesn't really impress me since he was basically unguardable in the role that he played at Uconn. It was the same movements it all came down to running around and hitting shots. The positive is that he didn't brick shots against better competition because of nerves or anything, but the entire Uconn team was supremely confident not just Hawkins and it didn't really matter who the competition was, they had their system and executed it with zero regard for the opponent. That's my take on that.

[billy_hoyle]

Draft is a gamble in itself yes you can find players in the later picks that turn out good....But you give yourself the best chance by getting a higher pick cause most the time talent like the LBJ's, Wades, Duncans, MJS, Magics, Birds, Hakeems, Shaqs, Carters, Iversons, Doncic....These type of players are always near the top of the drafts....Just gives yourself a chance to get a franchise player if your pick is higher...Just makes logical sense lol...

Why would you wanna make it more harder on yourself to try and find a franchise player in the late lottery? ....

These players don't just grow on trees i understand and you might even make a few mistakes before you get it right but imo we have to keep trying till we find that player for us or else we will just be stuck in no mans land for years and end up in a position where we have to play the draft anyways cause we will suck 2 bad...

I just don't agree that the only way to acquire top end talent is to be bad forever and hope for extreme luck.

But the other ways you're describing are also pretty lucky. Drafting Jokic at 41 was extremely lucky. Kawhi getting injured and spurs trading him for pennies on the dollar was very lucky.
Drafting a superstar in the top 3 requires luck of course but it's more likely than drafting the best center in the league at 41.

Your logic is flawed. Why compare only the 41st pick best center in isolation to a top pick superstar?

We've already said that half the all NBA teams come from late lottery picks (or lower).

Why would we tank or sell off talent to not meaningfully increase our chance at a superstar (All-NBA player)?

I fully understand that the better draft pick provides a larger pool of prospects, and likely a more talented group.

Looking historically, we know a consensus generally emerges on the talent in each draft, that concensus manifests into 'tiers'. Typically teams select within a tier (Or they 'reach'). Those tiers drive the players that are available. Looking through history, there is always a player (or multiple players) from the late lottery tier that becomes a star.

Like in this draft, NSJ, Keyonte, Bufkin, Bilal, Hawkins, Howard, Rupert, etc are likely slated for the late lottery and further down. One of these guys will be a star. That's like a 10% chance right there.

There is a max 14% chance at Wemby. I agree that getting the first pick in the draft is fantastic chance at a star. After that, I'm not sold that any of the remaining top 10 is guaranteed to be a star.

[Dalek]

I can't really see what is missing from Colby Jones, especially in this draft class his age could be forgiven. He fits what most teams want on the floor in close games and/or playoff games.

-Can play either guard spot and is a good enough playmaker to at least be a secondary
-Can guard 1-4 positions
-Shoots threes at 38%
-6'6 height and good wingspan
-Average to good NBA athlete (maybe a bit Brogdon like)

To me there is no question this guy will get on a NBA floor tomorrow.

[Dalek]

Hawkins improved efficiency vs. top 50-100 competition doesn't really impress me since he was basically unguardable in the role that he played at Uconn. It was the same movements it all came down to running around and hitting shots. The positive is that he didn't brick shots against better competition because of nerves or anything, but the entire Uconn team was supremely confident not just Hawkins and it didn't really matter who the competition was, they had their system and executed it with zero regard for the opponent. That's my take on that.

That is a good point. UConn was way ahead of the competition this year. Still, shotmaking and efficiency at his level are premium skills in the NBA. He also has the motor that never stops, which bodes well for him improving the other areas.

[ATLTimekeeper]

This data is in Bart Torvik for all college players. Here are a few guys who get better playing better competition (aka 'the gamers'):

Jordan Hawkins
vs. all competition: 7.4 BPM
vs. top 100 competition: 8.7 BPM
vs. top 50 competition: 8.7 BPM

Colby Jones
vs. all competition: 6.4 BPM
vs. top 100 competition: 7.0 BPM
vs. top 50 competition: 6.7 BPM

I was interested in seeing if there's any predictability here. First look, Ayton and Bagley both improved against top 50, SGA, Brunson saw a significant drop.

Second look, Bam, Mitchell, Fox all big drops. Lonzo Ball, big game player.

I'm guessing this is super noisy due to sample size.

[REJECTEDBYCLARK]

I can't really see what is missing from Colby Jones, especially in this draft class his age could be forgiven. He fits what most teams want on the floor in close games and/or playoff games.

-Can play either guard spot and is a good enough playmaker to at least be a secondary
-Can guard 1-4 positions
-Shoots threes at 38%
-6'6 height and good wingspan
-Average to good NBA athlete (maybe a bit Brogdon like)

To me there is no question this guy will get on a NBA floor tomorrow.

A concern about him and his ceiling is his shooting ability. There is uncertainty how well or consistently well he will shoot 3's and free throws in the NBA.

Personally I have seen him go through some stretches where he is turnover prone but nothing too alarming. He also is going to only just be solid as a defender, not the kind of player opposing players will worry about going up against on that end but he does show effort on that side of the ball. He's well-rounded and mature but doesn't have the upside to warrant an end of lottery selection.

[REJECTEDBYCLARK]

Hawkins improved efficiency vs. top 50-100 competition doesn't really impress me since he was basically unguardable in the role that he played at Uconn. It was the same movements it all came down to running around and hitting shots. The positive is that he didn't brick shots against better competition because of nerves or anything, but the entire Uconn team was supremely confident not just Hawkins and it didn't really matter who the competition was, they had their system and executed it with zero regard for the opponent. That's my take on that.

That is a good point. UConn was way ahead of the competition this year. Still, shotmaking and efficiency at his level are premium skills in the NBA. He also has the motor that never stops, which bodes well for him improving the other areas.

I'm trying to think about Hawkins when he's faced with adversity and not playing in the situation and system he was in at Uconn where Dan Hurley had all of his players on the same page playing with incredible chemistry and belief in the system they ran.

If Hawkins ends up in a good situation it will benefit him tremendously. If he ends up somewhere where they don't know how to use him and highlight his strengths and mask his weaknesses, it could be disastrous for his career. This can obviously apply to any prospect but I feel like it's even more important for a guy like Hawkins.

A coach like Spoelstra would likely bring out the best in him.

[WuTang_CMB]

Hawkins improved efficiency vs. top 50-100 competition doesn't really impress me since he was basically unguardable in the role that he played at Uconn. It was the same movements it all came down to running around and hitting shots. The positive is that he didn't brick shots against better competition because of nerves or anything, but the entire Uconn team was supremely confident not just Hawkins and it didn't really matter who the competition was, they had their system and executed it with zero regard for the opponent. That's my take on that.

That is a good point. UConn was way ahead of the competition this year. Still, shotmaking and efficiency at his level are premium skills in the NBA. He also has the motor that never stops, which bodes well for him improving the other areas.

Hawkins was running real NBA sets under Hurley. I take that as a positive moreso than a negative. That's his game and he thrived in that system and produced against the best. That's real and something you can evaluate on. In this modern nba where shooting is highly valued, just think he will explode under the right coach and players. Sneaky athletic as well. Think he goes lottery.

[WuTang_CMB]

Read on Twitter

?s=20

[Yallbecrazy]

Is Scoot even going to be better than John Wall?

I hope most that saw Embiid play saw Hakeem potential but due to injury scare dropped. The draft is tough, If Michael Porter Jr didn't have back problems he'd be #1 with Luka (lol Phoenix and Sacramento). MPJ is like Bachero but shooting 50/40/80. Still he's only like a 2nd option at best on a championship team. With time, Luka may be viewed as a #2 option on a championship team because of his bad defense? May end up just being Carmelo Anthony 2.0.

Outside of Wemby I don't think any player left could possibly be better than a #2 option. Even Wemby may top out at Porzingis and might have injury concerns due to size.

Scoot is an undersized, low efficiency guard who doesn't shoot it all that well. If people are expecting him to be a franchise level, top 10-15 player, I think they're going to be extremely disappointed. I think he's going to be good, but to be that size and dominate, you better be an elite shooter.

I have Wemby, BMiller then Scoot. #4 I have no clue. lol Cissoko!!!!

I have no idea on Scoot and frankly if we get the #2 pick that's an auto trade in this draft even for less value than expected. He was highly hyped because he had an incredible frame and was pretty skilled/ physically matured very early. He also stagnated from year 1 to year 2 in the G league, and didn't shoot it very well. There aren't any outlier G league stats that says he's going to be great either.

He has put up some great games against good competition, but he's also looked quite meh for long stretches too. He could very well be an all star, he could also end up peaking as a rotation player a good chunk of the time too.