’23 Celtics- Replace Brown/Tatum w/ ’08 Pierce/Garnett

[Matt15]

Are the Celtics better, the same or worse with ’08 Pierce/KG?

Line-Up
G-Marcus Smart
G-Derrick White
F-Paul Pierce(’08)
F-Kevin Garnett(’08)
C-Al Horford

[No-more-rings]

They’re obviously better, I don’t know if they’d be favored over LA or Denver though.

[GSP]

They’re obviously better, I don’t know if they’d be favored over LA or Denver though.

I mean we're favored to win the title and have been since Bucks got eliminated...........Wed have Hca and would be the odds favorites VS either

[No-more-rings]

They’re obviously better, I don’t know if they’d be favored over LA or Denver though.

I mean we're favored to win the title and have been since Bucks got eliminated...........Wed have Hca and would be the odds favorites VS either

According to who?

[GSP]

They’re obviously better, I don’t know if they’d be favored over LA or Denver though.

I mean we're favored to win the title and have been since Bucks got eliminated...........Wed have Hca and would be the odds favorites VS either

According to who?

The actual bookmakers?

[Colbinii]

They’re obviously better, I don’t know if they’d be favored over LA or Denver though.

I mean we're favored to win the title and have been since Bucks got eliminated...........Wed have Hca and would be the odds favorites VS either

Part of the reason you are favored though is because you have a signficiantly higher chance of beating Miami than either Denver/LAL have of beating themselves.

For example, these could be Boston's chances in each series, not be favored in the Finals yet still be the betting favorite because that is how math works.

Bos 75/Mia 25
Den 60/LAL 40
Bos 45/Den 55
Bos 50/LAL 50

[Cricket23]

Didn't Boston have better odds than Denver or LA before the playoffs even started, when it was assumed they'd have to go through Milwaukee?

[FuShengTHEGreat]

Obviously worse as far as I'm concerned.

Right from the get go that duo could barely beat arguably the worst 8th seeded team in NBA history. I don't even think they beat Philadelphia.

[Colbinii]

Didn't Boston have better odds than Denver or LA before the playoffs even started, when it was assumed they'd have to go through Milwaukee?

Yup.

Milwaukee Bucks +265
Boston Celtics +310
Phoenix Suns +425
Golden State Warriors +950
Philadelphia 76ers +1000
Denver Nuggets +1100
Los Angeles Lakers +1600
Memphis Grizzlies +2000
Cleveland Cavaliers +4500
Los Angeles Clippers +5000
Sacramento Kings +8000
New York Knicks +12000
Atlanta Hawks +25000
Miami Heat +30000

[No-more-rings]

I mean we're favored to win the title and have been since Bucks got eliminated...........Wed have Hca and would be the odds favorites VS either

According to who?

The actual bookmakers?

So you just look at betting odds to determine who will win? You probably thought Celts were “odds on favorites” last year too once Milwaukee, the Lakers and Denver were eliminated.

Celtics won’t be favored once the finals roll around and odds re-adjust. Denver and LA are just better teams.

[Colbinii]

According to who?

The actual bookmakers?

So you just look at betting odds to determine who will win? You probably thought Celts were “odds on favorites” last year too once Milwaukee, the Lakers and Denver were eliminated.

Celtics won’t be favored once the finals roll around and odds re-adjust. Denver and LA are just better teams.

Correct, most people don't understand how odds and betting favorites work.

The Celtics are favored to win against Miami 80/20. That is why they have the best odds to win the Finals.

[cupcakesnake]

Defensively we're talking about a nightmare for opponents. A Horford/Garnett/Time Lord big rotation is insane and allows them to play any kind of scheme.

Offensively it's interesting. They're losing some raw ppg here but I think this roster would be more offensively flexible with KG and Horford both able to operate as spacers and passers. Brogdon gets to come in a run pick & roll with KG. Pierce's physical strength makes him a slightly more resilient scorer than Brown or Tatum, and I like his playmaking more. Pierce is slower than these guys so I think they lose some mobility on the wing. They'll be playing a lot more 3-guard lineups whenever Pierce is on the bench so I think the lineup flexibility is worse.

[dygaction]

Defensively we're talking about a nightmare for opponents. A Horford/Garnett/Time Lord big rotation is insane and allows them to play any kind of scheme.

Offensively it's interesting. They're losing some raw ppg here but I think this roster would be more offensively flexible with KG and Horford both able to operate as spacers and passers. Brogdon gets to come in a run pick & roll with KG. Pierce's physical strength makes him a slightly more resilient scorer than Brown or Tatum, and I like his playmaking more. Pierce is slower than these guys so I think they lose some mobility on the wing. They'll be playing a lot more 3-guard lineups whenever Pierce is on the bench so I think the lineup flexibility is worse.

I don't like Tatum and I know the scoring is inflated, but to say just losing some raw ppg is over underestimating him. Tatum can win you games single handedly by the raw ppg. He has already had 7 playoffs games with 36+ (2x 50+ and 2x 40+) at age of 25, while KG's best was 35p, once.

[cupcakesnake]

Defensively we're talking about a nightmare for opponents. A Horford/Garnett/Time Lord big rotation is insane and allows them to play any kind of scheme.

Offensively it's interesting. They're losing some raw ppg here but I think this roster would be more offensively flexible with KG and Horford both able to operate as spacers and passers. Brogdon gets to come in a run pick & roll with KG. Pierce's physical strength makes him a slightly more resilient scorer than Brown or Tatum, and I like his playmaking more. Pierce is slower than these guys so I think they lose some mobility on the wing. They'll be playing a lot more 3-guard lineups whenever Pierce is on the bench so I think the lineup flexibility is worse.

I don't like Tatum and I know the scoring is inflated, but to say just losing some raw ppg is over underestimating him. Tatum can win you games single handedly by the raw ppg. He has already had 7 playoffs games with 36+ (2x 50+ and 2x 40+) at age of 25, while KG's best was 35p, once.

I'm not comparing Tatum and KG's scoring though. We're talking about 4 players. Pierce is the scorer I'd compare Tatum to.
Pierce (first 6 years): 31.8 per 100 on +3 rTS%
Tatum (first 6 years): 32.4 per 100 on +1 rTS%
These are their regular season numbers.

Pierce also had 7 playoff games of 36+ (3x 40+). It may seem disingenuous to compare a 6th-year player to a guy who played 19 seasons, but their careers are super different. Tatum has been on a decent playoff team every year of his career, where Paul Pierce played on mediocre rosters until he turned 30. Over the first 6 years of their careers, Tatum has played more than twice as many playoff games (87 vs. 30).

Jaylen Brown is pretty similar to KG in terms of just scoring. But I can't see an argument for Jaylen Brown bringing more offensive value overall.