Updating my top 50

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DQuinn1575
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Re: Updating my top 50 

Post#141 » by DQuinn1575 » Sun Jun 18, 2023 9:43 pm

trex_8063 wrote:
DQuinn1575 wrote:
Bottom line: they matter.
They don't matter near as much as star-level players, but they matter.



I said about to approximate, there is no exact numbers on any of these, but you need some approximate numbers to do math.
All-Star might be 23 or 29, but calling it an all-star (or all-nba) gives you ranges.


I still disagree with the above. In the league of the late 50s/early 60s there were basically league-average [or scarcely better] players being selected as All-Stars, simply because they needed 20 or so guys to fill the All-Star rosters......but they ran out of guys truly deserving of such distinction after about 10-12 or so.

That guy who's 23rd-best in 1960 [even in era-relative terms] is a comically lesser player than the 29th-best player of 2023.

Consequently, if/when I get far enough down my CORP-list that I run into guys who were 20th-24th in the league circa-1960, I'm not giving them credit for an "All-Star level" season for those years simply because they were top 24.

You're free to do so, of course. But to me, rating a clearly worse player better [than the other player he's worse than] is kinda bonkers.

It's worthwhile looking at the degree of parity in the league in given years (i.e. don't take raw metrics at face value, as though the numbers mean exactly the same thing from decade to decade), sure. But I'm just not going to take that as far as settling on a number of persons (give or take a few) in the league, when the league is nearly 4x larger today.


DQuinn1575 wrote:
My point is that they are still at a somewhat non scarce level. There are 60-90 or so Thompsons, Armstrongs etc.in the league. Virtually every team has a couple.


So?
Again, I think you're too hung up on proportion of the league. Being relatively common in the league does not = unvaluable.

And fwiw, some CORP methodologies have slightly different values for the various tiers, if that makes you feel better about it. For example, I read one where a "GOAT-level" season was given 40% CORP, while "Average [Role] player" seasons only 1.5% (instead of the 33% and 2% cited by 70sFan).

Personally, I'm going with this range (which is in between): 35% [GOAT]/29% [All-Time Great]/21% [MVP]/16% [weak MVP]/10% [All-NBA]/6.5% [All-Star]/4% [Sub All-Star]/1.5% [Average player]


DQuinn1575 wrote:Yes, Tristan Thompson and B.J. Armstrong help a team win a title......

......Being as good as B.J. doesnt mean you have a better chance to win a title than being as good as Jud Buechler. The key to winning NBA titles is really to have guys who are better than that.


This seems like, "Yes, they help.....except that they don't help."

OBVIOUSLY you need guys [multiple guys] better than "Average" on your team to have any legit shot at a title. Precisely NO ONE is suggesting otherwise. The principle of CORP% analysis is absolutely NOT suggesting otherwise.

It does, however, recognize that even GOAT-tier players need help; look at '89 and '90 Jordan, '77 Kareem, '09 LeBron, '64 Wilt. All of those are at least "All-Time Great" seasons, if not even "GOAT-level", yet NONE of them won the title ['64 Wilt is the ONLY one among them who even made it to the Finals, losing soundly].

Having Armstrong [or Harper] instead of Hudson, Smith instead of Rivers, Thompson instead of Jerebko, or Love instead of West, etc: either you agree these things make a difference, maybe even enough to turn those particular series's in a different direction........or you don't.

If you DO agree they do, then that is acknowledging the core of the CORP analysis view of average players. Because again: MOST of the league [in ANY year] is replacement level or worse. So even though there may be, as you say, 60-90 "Average" players in the league, they're still more scarce than the guys who are WORSE (if you insist on keeping focus on scarcity).


You can talk all you want, and I'm not disagreeing with the points you are making, but
The math just doesn't work - you are giving out 4 to 5 championship points a year, while only giving the best team 0.3-0.5.
It doesnt have to be 1.0 every year, talent fluctuates and it grows, but using a total of 4 or 5 when the best team will only get 0.5
isn't right.
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Re: Updating my top 50 

Post#142 » by trex_8063 » Mon Jun 19, 2023 3:16 am

AEnigma wrote:Do you not think replacing Malone and Jazz centre rotation with those Hakeem years and an equivalent power forward rotation produce multiples titles? I certainly do, and 1995 in particular seems like an odd pull when we saw a comfortable disparity between Hakeem and essentially peak Malone. This reads as you being low on Hakeem more than anything.


Note I didn't cite '95 Malone at all above, and don't consider it to be one of Malone's three best seasons either [maybe not even top 5??]; whereas '95 is a top-3 season for Hakeem.
Further, I've never suggested that peak vs peak Malone is Hakeem's equal. So this feels a bit like a counter to an argument I never made.

I questioned positing peak-Malone not just one, but TWO tiers away from even the 3rd-best season of Hakeem. That seems high on Hakeem or low on Malone; or both.

Could the '95 Jazz have won the title with Hakeem and Felton Spencer-tier PF? Sure, there's a fantastic chance that year, as wide open as the league was that year.

In '96? Considering the '96 Bulls lie in the way, and Hakeem kinda flubbed the ps that year, too? No way. If they actually get past Seattle in the West, they don't get past the Bulls.

In '97? I'm not convinced that late-prime version of Hakeem [probably not even one of his top 8 seasons overall] is any better than what is arguably Malone's peak. And if he is, it's not by a significant margin, and I'm skeptical it's enough to upset what might be a top-10 team ever in the Finals.

In '98? Hakeem's is 35 and hampered by injury, effectively OUT of his prime [and has a bad ps, fwiw]. I don't think he's as good as what is arguably peak version of Malone. So no, I don't think they win with this swap (note I think the Jazz probably DO win if not for a couple extraordinarily bad/unfortunate calls.......and absolutely no one would question calling '98 Malone "MVP-level" if they had).

In '99? No, Hakeem is over the hill, and the supporting cast he'd have in Utah is also past their best. They do not win that year with Hakeem either.

So in this 5-year stretch, I see a Malone/Hakeem swap garnering the Jazz probably one title, mostly because it coincides a top-3 Hakeem season with a year the league was wide open........a year I never lobbied to be considered as potentially MVP-level year for Malone in the first place.



Might be the problem with relying too heavily on regular season composites to form a base for a player assessment.


I won't deny that I might be.


For my own part, I would probably say 1998 Malone edges into the “MVP” tier above “weak MVP”, but even there, it is still “low-end MVP without quite being weak MVP”, and pushing back on that level of disagreement feels unproductive for what it ultimately the rough equivalent of a 1% gap in comparative CORP (or whatever).


Well, that's what I'm saying. I see both of '97 and '98 as roughly halfway between MVP and weak MVP at least. Other years of Malone might also be considered "toward the higher end of the 'weak MVP' tier", too. So among ALL of that, seems like he should get credit for at least one MVP-level season. Because within whatever 3-5 seasons we're referring to [where he's at worst "toward the higher end of the 'weak MVP' tier"], he'll have provided substantially more CORP boost than just 3-5 "weak MVP" seasons.

And fwiw, the difference [between MVP and weak MVP] in 70sFan's methodology is 5% (in some others it's 6-7%). So it's not insubstantial.
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Re: Updating my top 50 

Post#143 » by AEnigma » Mon Jun 19, 2023 3:57 am

trex_8063 wrote:
AEnigma wrote:Do you not think replacing Malone and Jazz centre rotation with those Hakeem years and an equivalent power forward rotation produce multiples titles? I certainly do, and 1995 in particular seems like an odd pull when we saw a comfortable disparity between Hakeem and essentially peak Malone. This reads as you being low on Hakeem more than anything.

Note I didn't cite '95 Malone at all above, and don't consider it to be one of Malone's three best seasons either [maybe not even top 5??]; whereas '95 is a top-3 season for Hakeem.

Do you see some meteoric rise from Malone after 1995? Whether or not it is a top five season is irrelevant if it is meaningfully close to his best.

Further, I've never suggested that peak vs peak Malone is Hakeem's equal. So this feels a bit like a counter to an argument I never made.

I questioned positing peak-Malone not just one, but TWO tiers away from even the 3rd-best season of Hakeem. That seems high on Hakeem or low on Malone; or both.

It is neither. Again I will pull Kobe. 1992 is arguably not even a top three Jordan season, so how could that possibly be two tiers higher than Kobe’s best season????

When a player is better, that self-relative ranking hardly matters. And as a scale of accomplishment and performance, frankly 1992 Jordan is a hell of a lot closer to peak Kobe in the postseason than any Malone season is to 1995 Hakeem.

I do not need to cite only those two either. Is it conceivable that 2020 Lebron, which might not even be one of his five best years (although I do see it as one of his five best postseasons), is two tiers ahead of peak Barkley? Is it not likely that 1980 Kareem, which might not be a top three Kareem season, could be two tiers ahead of 1990 Ewing? There are sizeable gulfs between a top eight peak and a top thirty one, and — possibly Walton aside — those top eight peaks do not plummet even if you start looking at other prime years. Which brings is to: where is this sudden change in status? What qualifies 1995 Finals MVP Hakeem as such a confounding step down from his peak that suddenly it is a question whether he can be more than one tier higher as a playoff performer? Is it that shocking for an average prime Hakeem season to be ahead of peak Malone?

Revisiting that Kareem/Ewing comparison, I suppose if I encountered someone who thought Ewing and Robinson were legitimately better players in 1990 than Hakeem that year — not just “had a more impactful regular season”, or “was more notable for Player of the Year balloting”, but legitimately better and more likely to produce a championship — then I can understand that person being lower on his prime in general. Maybe that describes you. However, 70sFan is evidently someone who does see a comfortable raw advantage for Hakeem, and he is not lonely in taking that stance (Elgee’s position is similar, as is mine, as are plenty of others), so I would not be surprised or befuddled that someone with that stance marks those seasons at such a high level comparatively with someone like Malone.

Could the '95 Jazz have won the title with Hakeem and Felton Spencer-tier PF? Sure, there's a fantastic chance that year, as wide open as the league was that year.

In '96? Considering the '96 Bulls lie in the way, and Hakeem kinda flubbed the ps that year, too? No way. If they actually get past Seattle in the West, they don't get past the Bulls.

In '97? I'm not convinced that late-prime version of Hakeem [probably not even one of his top 8 seasons overall] is any better than what is arguably Malone's peak. And if he is, it's not by a significant margin, and I'm skeptical it's enough to upset what might be a top-10 team ever in the Finals.

In '98? Hakeem's is 35 and hampered by injury, effectively OUT of his prime [and has a bad ps, fwiw]. I don't think he's as good as what is arguably peak version of Malone. So no, I don't think they win with this swap (note I think the Jazz probably DO win if not for a couple extraordinarily bad/unfortunate calls.......and absolutely no one would question calling '98 Malone "MVP-level" if they had).

In '99? No, Hakeem is over the hill, and the supporting cast he'd have in Utah is also past their best. They do not win that year with Hakeem either.

So in this 5-year stretch, I see a Malone/Hakeem swap garnering the Jazz probably one title, mostly because it coincides a top-3 Hakeem season with a year the league was wide open........a year I never lobbied to be considered as potentially MVP-level year for Malone in the first place.

This is an improper reading and a good example of why you should make sure to only cut what you are absolutely sure is not relevant to a reply.

This was the comment:
AEnigma wrote:
Out of these four seasons, you can't find even ONE year that is worthy of "MVP-level"?

I have difficulty reconciling that when I see [for example] '89, '90, and '95 Hakeem, as well as '88 Magic being credited not just "MVP-level", but "All-Time Great" level.

Do you not think replacing Malone and Jazz centre rotation with those Hakeem years and an equivalent power forward rotation produce multiples titles? I certainly do, and 1995 in particular seems like an odd pull when we saw a comfortable disparity between Hakeem and essentially peak Malone. This reads as you being low on Hakeem more than anything.

I was referring to the Hakeem years you specifically contested. I have absolutely no idea how you concluded otherwise. 70sFan explicitly marked Malone as better in 1998 or 1999, and I have never seen anyone argue 1999.

And fwiw, the difference [between MVP and weak MVP] in 70sFan's methodology is 5% (in some others it's 6-7%). So it's not insubstantial.

I mean again that is not really a logical reading. No one assesses all players at one exact set level and then suddenly an absolute increase by specifically 5% or whatever when they improve. Everyone operates at a scale with an abstracted cut-off at some point.
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Re: Updating my top 50 

Post#144 » by 70sFan » Mon Jun 19, 2023 8:03 am

homecourtloss wrote:Really enjoying read these and comparing to how I have them—thank you for these, ‘70s. Do you have the breakdowns for LeBron, Kareem, Russell, and Wilt?

LeBron James:

GOAT-level: 3 (2009, 2012, 2013)
All-time: 6 (2010, 2014, 2016-18, 2020)
MVP: 2 (2008, 2015)
Weak MVP: 1 (2008)
All-nba: 6 (2005-07, 2019, 2022, 2023)
All-star: 1 (2021)
Sub all-star: 0
Role player: 1 (2004)


Kareem Abdul-Jabbar:

GOAT-level: 2 (1974, 1977)
All-time: 4 (1971, 1972, 1979, 1980)
MVP: 5 (1970, 1973, 1976 1978, 1981)
Weak MVP: 3 (1975, 1982, 1983)
All-nba: 3 (1984-86)
All-star: 1 (1987)
Sub all-star: 0
Role player: 1 (1988)


Bill Russell:

GOAT-level: 4 (1962-65)
All-time: 3 (1960, 1961, 1966)
MVP: 3 (1959, 1967, 1968)
Weak MVP: 2 (1958, 1969)
All-nba: 1 (1957)
All-star: 0
Sub all-star: 0
Role player: 0


Wilt Chamberlain

GOAT-level: 2 (1964, 1967)
All-time: 2 (1962, 1968)
MVP: 4 (1960, 1963, 1965, 1966)
Weak MVP: 3 (1961, 1972, 1973)
All-nba: 2 (1969, 1971)
All-star: 0
Sub all-star: 1 (1970)
Role player: 0
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Re: Updating my top 50 

Post#145 » by 70sFan » Mon Jun 19, 2023 8:23 am

70sFan wrote:
trex_8063 wrote:And fwiw, some CORP methodologies have slightly different values for the various tiers, if that makes you feel better about it. For example, I read one where a "GOAT-level" season was given 40% CORP, while "Average [Role] player" seasons only 1.5% (instead of the 33% and 2% cited by 70sFan).

Personally, I'm going with this range (which is in between): 35% [GOAT]/29% [All-Time Great]/21% [MVP]/16% [weak MVP]/10% [All-NBA]/6.5% [All-Star]/4% [Sub All-Star]/1.5% [Average player]

I will make the list with these values later to see how much it would change compared to the one I already posted.

Your weights gives us this list:

Player Title odds
1 LeBron James 408,0
2 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar 379,0
3 Bill Russell 336,0
4 Michael Jordan 310,5
5 Tim Duncan 302,0
6 Hakeem Olajuwon 299,5
7 Wilt Chamberlain 286,0
8 Shaquille O'Neal 281,5
9 Kevin Garnett 258,0
10 Magic Johnson 227,5
11 Oscar Robertson 222,0
12 Kobe Bryant 219,0
13 Stephen Curry 212,5
14 Karl Malone 212,0
15 Larry Bird 210,0
16 Julius Erving 209,5
17 Jerry West 205,0
18 Dirk Nowitzki 205,0
19 David Robinson 204,5
20 Chris Paul 200,0
21 Kevin Durant 195,5
22 Moses Malone 185,5
23 Charles Barkley 176,5
24 Steve Nash 168,5
25 Dwyane Wade 164,5
26 James Harden 157,5
27 Patrick Ewing 150,5
28 George Mikan 145,5
29 John Stockton 144,5
30 Artis Gilmore 144,5
31 John Havlicek 143,5
32 Giannis Antetokumpo 143,0
33 Reggie Miller 137,0
34 Scottie Pippen 132,5
35 Rick Barry 130,5
36 Jason Kidd 130,0
37 Nikola Jokic 130,0
38 Anthony Davis 128,5
39 Bob Pettit 127,0
40 George Gervin 121,0
41 Paul Pierce 119,5
42 Walt Frazier 118,5
43 Nate Thurmond 118,0
44 Ray Allen 115,5
45 Dolph Schayes 115,0
46 Elgin Baylor 114,5
47 Bob Lanier 112,5
48 Russell Westbrook 110,0
49 Dikembe Mutombo 109,5
50 Dwight Howard 109,5
51 Jimmy Butler 107,5
52 Kawhi Leonard 107,5
53 Pau Gasol 105,5
54 Clyde Drexler 104,5
55 Kevin McHale 102,5
56 Gary Payton 101,5
57 Paul Arizin 101,5
58 Wes Unseld 100,5
59 Rasheed Wallace 100
60 Elvin Hayes 96,5
61 Robert Parish 95,0
62 Bob Cousy 93,0
63 Dave Cowens 92,0
64 Alonzo Mourning 92,0
65 Tracy McGrady 89,5
66 Isiah Thomas 89,0
67 Manu Ginobili 89,0
68 Adrian Dantley 88,5
69 Allen Iverson 88,5
70 Draymond Green 87,0
71 Hal Greer 86,5
72 Alex English 86,0
73 Rudy Gobert 84,0
74 Tony Parker 81,0
75 Chauncey Billups 81,0
76 Willis Reed 80,0
77 Bobby Jones 79,5
78 Dominique Wilkins 79,0
79 Damian Lillard 79,0
80 Dennis Rodman 77,0
81 Dennis Rodman 77,0
82 Sam Jones 76,5
83 Vince Carter 76,0
84 Kevin Johnson 74,0
85 Ben Wallace 73,0
86 Bob McAdoo 70,5
87 Luka Doncic 62,0
88 Bill Walton 61,5
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Re: Updating my top 50 

Post#146 » by penbeast0 » Mon Jun 19, 2023 11:34 am

70sFan wrote:Your weights gives us this list:

Player Title odds
1 LeBron James 408,0
2 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar 379,0
3 Bill Russell 336,0
4 Michael Jordan 310,5
5 Tim Duncan 302,0
6 Hakeem Olajuwon 299,5
7 Wilt Chamberlain 286,0
8 Shaquille O'Neal 281,5
9 Kevin Garnett 258,0
10 Magic Johnson 227,5
11 Oscar Robertson 222,0
12 Kobe Bryant 219,0
13 Stephen Curry 212,5
14 Karl Malone 212,0
15 Larry Bird 210,0
16 Julius Erving 209,5
17 Jerry West 205,0
18 Dirk Nowitzki 205,0
19 David Robinson 204,5
20 Chris Paul 200,0
21 Kevin Durant 195,5
22 Moses Malone 185,5
23 Charles Barkley 176,5
24 Steve Nash 168,5
25 Dwyane Wade 164,5
26 James Harden 157,5
27 Patrick Ewing 150,5
28 George Mikan 145,5
29 John Stockton 144,5
30 Artis Gilmore 144,5
31 John Havlicek 143,5
32 Giannis Antetokumpo 143,0
33 Reggie Miller 137,0
34 Scottie Pippen 132,5
35 Rick Barry 130,5
36 Jason Kidd 130,0
37 Nikola Jokic 130,0
38 Anthony Davis 128,5
39 Bob Pettit 127,0
40 George Gervin 121,0
41 Paul Pierce 119,5
42 Walt Frazier 118,5
43 Nate Thurmond 118,0
44 Ray Allen 115,5
45 Dolph Schayes 115,0
46 Elgin Baylor 114,5
47 Bob Lanier 112,5
48 Russell Westbrook 110,0
49 Dikembe Mutombo 109,5
50 Dwight Howard 109,5
51 Jimmy Butler 107,5
52 Kawhi Leonard 107,5
53 Pau Gasol 105,5
54 Clyde Drexler 104,5
55 Kevin McHale 102,5
56 Gary Payton 101,5
57 Paul Arizin 101,5
58 Wes Unseld 100,5
59 Rasheed Wallace 100
60 Elvin Hayes 96,5
61 Robert Parish 95,0
62 Bob Cousy 93,0
63 Dave Cowens 92,0
64 Alonzo Mourning 92,0
65 Tracy McGrady 89,5
66 Isiah Thomas 89,0
67 Manu Ginobili 89,0
68 Adrian Dantley 88,5
69 Allen Iverson 88,5
70 Draymond Green 87,0
71 Hal Greer 86,5
72 Alex English 86,0
73 Rudy Gobert 84,0
74 Tony Parker 81,0
75 Chauncey Billups 81,0
76 Willis Reed 80,0
77 Bobby Jones 79,5
78 Dominique Wilkins 79,0
79 Damian Lillard 79,0
80 Dennis Rodman 77,0
81 Dennis Rodman 77,0
82 Sam Jones 76,5
83 Vince Carter 76,0
84 Kevin Johnson 74,0
85 Ben Wallace 73,0
86 Bob McAdoo 70,5
87 Luka Doncic 62,0
88 Bill Walton 61,5


Without taking a deeper dive, that's not a bad list down through the top 20 at least. You'd get some screams from the Jordan stans and Karl Malone over Larry Bird will get a lot of blowback but it's a very defendable take.
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Re: Updating my top 50 

Post#147 » by 70sFan » Mon Jun 19, 2023 12:31 pm

penbeast0 wrote:Without taking a deeper dive, that's not a bad list down through the top 20 at least. You'd get some screams from the Jordan stans and Karl Malone over Larry Bird will get a lot of blowback but it's a very defendable take.

I like both lists to be honest, not sure which one is closer to my preference. This one is a bit more peak-driven but not to the degree when we start to see some absurd results.
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Re: Updating my top 50 

Post#148 » by rk2023 » Mon Jun 19, 2023 2:27 pm

70sFan wrote:
DQuinn1575 wrote:
70sFan wrote:Added players:

69 Tracy McGrady
70 Alex English
71 Hal Greer
73 Tony Parker
76 Dominique Wilkins
77 Bobby Jones
78 Damian Lillard
81 Sam Jones
84 Kevin Johnson
85 Bob McAdoo
87 Bill Walton

Full list (Manu and Cowens went up due to the re-evaluation of their peaks):

Spoiler:
1 LeBron James 381,0
2 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar 354,0
3 Bill Russell 310,5
4 Michael Jordan 288,0
5 Tim Duncan 283,0
6 Hakeem Olajuwon 278,5
7 Wilt Chamberlain 266,5
8 Shaquille O'Neal 266,0
9 Kevin Garnett 247,5
10 Magic Johnson 213,0
11 Kobe Bryant 211,5
12 Oscar Robertson 208,0
13 Karl Malone 200,0
14 Stephen Curry 199,0
15 Dirk Nowitzki 198,5
16 Julius Erving 198,0
17 Jerry West 196,0
18 Larry Bird 196,0
19 Chris Paul 192,5
20 David Robinson 191,5
21 Kevin Durant 188,0
22 Moses Malone 178,0
23 Charles Barkley 171,0
24 Steve Nash 163,5
25 Dwyane Wade 160,0
26 James Harden 152,5
27 John Stockton 146,0
28 Patrick Ewing 144,5
29 Artis Gilmore 140,5
30 John Havlicek 139,5
31 Reggie Miller 137,5
32 Giannis Antetokumpo 135,5
33 George Mikan 134,5
34 Jason Kidd 131,0
35 Scottie Pippen 128,0
36 Rick Barry 127,0
37 Anthony Davis 122,5
38 Nikola Jokic 122,5
39 Bob Pettit 121,0
40 Paul Pierce 121,0
41 George Gervin 118,5
42 Ray Allen 117,0
43 Dolph Schayes 115,5
44 Nate Thurmond 113,5
45 Walt Frazier 111,5
46 Dikembe Mutombo 111,5
47 Elgin Baylor 111,5
48 Bob Lanier 110,5
49 Russell Westbrook 108,0
50 Dwight Howard 107,0
51 Pau Gasol 106,5
52 Clyde Drexler 104,5
53 Jimmy Butler 104,0
54 Gary Payton 104,0
55 Kawhi Leonard 102,5
56 Rasheed Wallace 101,0
57 Wes Unseld 100,5
58 Kevin McHale 100,0
59 Paul Arizin 98,5
60 Elvin Hayes 97,5
61 Robert Parish 97,0
62 Bob Cousy 94,0
63 Alonzo Mourning 90,0
64 Isiah Thomas 89,5
65 Adrian Dantley 89,5
66 Manu Ginobili 89,5
67 Dave Cowens 89,0
68 Allen Iverson 88,5
69 Tracy McGrady 87,5
70 Alex English 87,0
71 Hal Greer 87,0
72 Draymond Green 84,5
73 Tony Parker 83,0
74 Chauncey Billups 82,0
75 Rudy Gobert 81,5
76 Dominique Wilkins 81,0
77 Bobby Jones 80,0
78 Damian Lillard 80,0
79 Vince Carter 78,5
80 Dennis Rodman 77,5
81 Sam Jones 77,0
82 Willis Reed 75,5
83 Ben Wallace 75,0
84 Kevin Johnson 75,0
85 Bob McAdoo 71,5
86 Dennis Rodman 66,5
87 Bill Walton 65,0
88 Luka Doncic 57,5


I think that's all, at this point this methodology doesn't give us clear picture anymore. If you think I missed anyone else, feel free to tell me but I don't think I did.


Since they are contemporaries, I'd like to see your year by year for Bird and Magic, and then Michael and Hakeem,
Thanks

Larry Bird:

GOAT-level: 0
All-time: 3 (1984, 1986, 1987)
MVP: 2 (1985, 1988)
Weak MVP: 3 (1981-83)
All-nba: 2 (1980, 1990)
All-star: 2 (1991, 1992)
Sub all-star: 0
Role player: 0


Magic Johnson:

GOAT-level: 0
All-time: 3 (1987, 1988, 1990)
MVP: 4 (1985, 1986, 1989, 1991)
Weak MVP: 2 (1983, 1984)
All-nba: 1 (1982)
All-star: 1 (1980)
Sub all-star: 2 (1981, 1996)
Role player


Michael Jordan:

GOAT-level: 3 (1989-91)
All-time: 4 (1988, 1992, 1993, 1996)
MVP: 2 (1997, 1998)
Weak MVP: 1 (1987)
All-nba: 1 (1985)
All-star: 1 (1995)
Sub all-star: 3 (1986, 2002, 2003)
Role player: 0


Hakeem Olajuwon:

GOAT-level: 2 (1993, 1994)
All-time: 3 (1989, 1990, 1995)
MVP: 2 (1987, 1988)
Weak MVP: 4 (1986, 1992, 1996, 1997)
All-nba: 2 (1985, 1991)
All-star: 2 (1998, 1999)
Sub all-star: 0
Role player: 1 (2001)


If not done already, may I see Shaq’s seasonal valuations?
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Re: Updating my top 50 

Post#149 » by SpreeS » Mon Jun 19, 2023 2:49 pm

70sFan wrote:
70sFan wrote:
trex_8063 wrote:And fwiw, some CORP methodologies have slightly different values for the various tiers, if that makes you feel better about it. For example, I read one where a "GOAT-level" season was given 40% CORP, while "Average [Role] player" seasons only 1.5% (instead of the 33% and 2% cited by 70sFan).

Personally, I'm going with this range (which is in between): 35% [GOAT]/29% [All-Time Great]/21% [MVP]/16% [weak MVP]/10% [All-NBA]/6.5% [All-Star]/4% [Sub All-Star]/1.5% [Average player]

I will make the list with these values later to see how much it would change compared to the one I already posted.

Your weights gives us this list:

Player Title odds
1 LeBron James 408,0
2 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar 379,0
3 Bill Russell 336,0
4 Michael Jordan 310,5
5 Tim Duncan 302,0
6 Hakeem Olajuwon 299,5
7 Wilt Chamberlain 286,0
8 Shaquille O'Neal 281,5
9 Kevin Garnett 258,0
10 Magic Johnson 227,5
11 Oscar Robertson 222,0
12 Kobe Bryant 219,0
13 Stephen Curry 212,5
14 Karl Malone 212,0
15 Larry Bird 210,0
16 Julius Erving 209,5
17 Jerry West 205,0
18 Dirk Nowitzki 205,0
19 David Robinson 204,5
20 Chris Paul 200,0
21 Kevin Durant 195,5
22 Moses Malone 185,5
23 Charles Barkley 176,5
24 Steve Nash 168,5
25 Dwyane Wade 164,5
26 James Harden 157,5
27 Patrick Ewing 150,5
28 George Mikan 145,5
29 John Stockton 144,5
30 Artis Gilmore 144,5
31 John Havlicek 143,5
32 Giannis Antetokumpo 143,0
33 Reggie Miller 137,0
34 Scottie Pippen 132,5
35 Rick Barry 130,5
36 Jason Kidd 130,0
37 Nikola Jokic 130,0
38 Anthony Davis 128,5
39 Bob Pettit 127,0
40 George Gervin 121,0
41 Paul Pierce 119,5
42 Walt Frazier 118,5
43 Nate Thurmond 118,0
44 Ray Allen 115,5
45 Dolph Schayes 115,0
46 Elgin Baylor 114,5
47 Bob Lanier 112,5
48 Russell Westbrook 110,0
49 Dikembe Mutombo 109,5
50 Dwight Howard 109,5
51 Jimmy Butler 107,5
52 Kawhi Leonard 107,5
53 Pau Gasol 105,5
54 Clyde Drexler 104,5
55 Kevin McHale 102,5
56 Gary Payton 101,5
57 Paul Arizin 101,5
58 Wes Unseld 100,5
59 Rasheed Wallace 100
60 Elvin Hayes 96,5
61 Robert Parish 95,0
62 Bob Cousy 93,0
63 Dave Cowens 92,0
64 Alonzo Mourning 92,0
65 Tracy McGrady 89,5
66 Isiah Thomas 89,0
67 Manu Ginobili 89,0
68 Adrian Dantley 88,5
69 Allen Iverson 88,5
70 Draymond Green 87,0
71 Hal Greer 86,5
72 Alex English 86,0
73 Rudy Gobert 84,0
74 Tony Parker 81,0
75 Chauncey Billups 81,0
76 Willis Reed 80,0
77 Bobby Jones 79,5
78 Dominique Wilkins 79,0
79 Damian Lillard 79,0
80 Dennis Rodman 77,0
81 Dennis Rodman 77,0
82 Sam Jones 76,5
83 Vince Carter 76,0
84 Kevin Johnson 74,0
85 Ben Wallace 73,0
86 Bob McAdoo 70,5
87 Luka Doncic 62,0
88 Bill Walton 61,5


Could you give us the rest players from Realgm TOP100 2020 + Tatum Embiid George
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Re: Updating my top 50 

Post#150 » by 70sFan » Mon Jun 19, 2023 3:15 pm

rk2023 wrote:If not done already, may I see Shaq’s seasonal valuations?

Shaquille O'Neal:

GOAT-level: 2 (2000, 2001)
All-time: 1 (2002)
MVP: 5 (1994, 1995, 1998, 1999, 2003)
Weak MVP: 2 (1996, 2004)
All-nba: 3 (1993, 1997, 2005)
All-star: 1 (2006)
Sub all-star: 1 (2009)
Role player: 2 (2007, 2008)
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Re: Updating my top 50 

Post#151 » by rk2023 » Mon Jun 19, 2023 3:29 pm

A month ago or so, I did a similar exercise as 70sFan has been using throughout this thread for the 2020 voted Top 10 careers by the PC board community. My results were as follows:

rk2023 wrote:
70sFan wrote:
1. LeBron James
2. Michael Jordan
3. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
4. Bill Russell
5. Tim Duncan
6. Wilt Chamberlain
7. Magic Johnson
8. Shaquille O'Neal
9. Hakeem Olajuwon
10. Larry Bird

GOAT season
All-time season
MVP season


I'll give this a try at the "Strong MVP" tier and higher for each one of the players. This is just my opinion at the day, and such a classification of tiers of-course is subjective and varies by each posters' interpretation. If people disagree, more than open to hear differing views :D

For framework/criteria: I'm using similar methodology as ElGee/Ben's CORP model in assessing player goodness. Also worth stating that within the 'All-Time' and 'MVP' tiers, not each season is the same and some may be 'better' than others (like 1974 Kareem > 1984 Bird, for example). I'm more on the loose / flexible end when using these labels too FWIW.

GOAT Seasons:
Spoiler:
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar: 1977
Michael Jordan: 1989-91
LeBron James: 2009, 2012, 2013
Shaquille O'Neal: 2000


All-Time Seasons:
Spoiler:
Bill Russell: 1960-66
Wilt Chamberlain: 1964, 66-68
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar: 1971-74, 78-80
Magic Johnson: 1987-91
Larry Bird: 1984, 86-87
Michael Jordan: 1988, 92-93, 96
Hakeem Olajuwon: 1989-90, 93-95
Shaquille O'Neal: 2001-02
Tim Duncan: 2002-03, 2007
LeBron James: 2010, 14, 16-18, 20


Strong MVP Seasons:
Spoiler:
Bill Russell: 1958-59, 67
Wilt Chamberlain: 1960-62, 65, 72
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar: 1970, 75-76
Magic Johnson: 1984-86
Larry Bird: 1981-84, 88
Michael Jordan: 1987, 97-98
Hakeem Olajuwon: 1986-88, 92
Shaquille O'Neal: 1994-95, 1998-99, 2003
Tim Duncan: 1998-99, 2001, 2004-06
LeBron James: 2008, 11, 15


Again, I'm unsure if there are given years I may have missed here and there, but that's my opinion for the most part. As a fun project (granted, with its limitations in methodology), I'll try to create a points-system to score each 10 of these players' primes. I'm aware longevity is another piece to the career puzzle that isn't factored in here, just to clarify. Assuming a GOAT season is worth 3 points, All-Time is worth 2, and MVP is worth 1 - here is how these ten players 'prime-qualities' stack up (below).

Ranking (Note, Longevity and era-adjustment for such not factored in):
Spoiler:
1. LeBron James: 24 points
T-2. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar: 20 points
T-2. Michael Jordan: 20 points
4. Bill Russell: 17 points
5. Hakeem Olajuwon: 14 points
T-6. Wilt Chamberlain: 13 points
T-6. Magic Johnson: 13 points
T-8. Tim Duncan: 12 points
T-8. Shaquille O'Neal: 12 points
10: Larry Bird: 11 points
Mogspan wrote:I think they see the super rare combo of high IQ with freakish athleticism and overrate the former a bit, kind of like a hot girl who is rather articulate being thought of as “super smart.” I don’t know kind of a weird analogy, but you catch my drift.
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Re: Updating my top 50 

Post#152 » by 70sFan » Mon Jun 19, 2023 3:30 pm

SpreeS wrote:Could you give us the rest players from Realgm TOP100 2020 + Tatum Embiid George

Not enough time to do all of them and as I said, at the end of top 100 it doesn't make much sense to use this method. I did the modern guys you asked for:

77 Paul George 81
88 Joel Embiid 64,0
89 Luka Doncic 59,5
90 Jayson Tatum 50,5
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Re: Updating my top 50 

Post#153 » by -Luke- » Mon Jun 19, 2023 3:32 pm

70sFan wrote:80 Dennis Rodman 77,0
81 Dennis Rodman 77,0

You have Rodman twice. Is one of the two Dennis Johnson or do the others behind move forward one spot?

Anyway, thank you for posting all these. Much appreciated!
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Re: Updating my top 50 

Post#154 » by 70sFan » Mon Jun 19, 2023 3:38 pm

-Luke- wrote:
70sFan wrote:80 Dennis Rodman 77,0
81 Dennis Rodman 77,0

You have Rodman twice. Is one of the two Dennis Johnson or do the others behind move forward one spot?

Anyway, thank you for posting all these. Much appreciated!

It was an error, I updated the most recent version of list in the OP.
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Re: Updating my top 50 

Post#155 » by DQuinn1575 » Mon Jun 19, 2023 8:31 pm

70sFan wrote:
homecourtloss wrote:Really enjoying read these and comparing to how I have them—thank you for these, ‘70s. Do you have the breakdowns for LeBron, Kareem, Russell, and Wilt?

LeBron James:

GOAT-level: 3 (2009, 2012, 2013)
All-time: 6 (2010, 2014, 2016-18, 2020)
MVP: 2 (2008, 2015)
Weak MVP: 1 (2008)
All-nba: 6 (2005-07, 2019, 2022, 2023)
All-star: 1 (2021)
Sub all-star: 0
Role player: 1 (2004)


Kareem Abdul-Jabbar:

GOAT-level: 2 (1974, 1977)
All-time: 4 (1971, 1972, 1979, 1980)
MVP: 5 (1970, 1973, 1976 1978, 1981)
Weak MVP: 3 (1975, 1982, 1983)
All-nba: 3 (1984-86)
All-star: 1 (1987)
Sub all-star: 0
Role player: 1 (1988)


Bill Russell:

GOAT-level: 4 (1962-65)
All-time: 3 (1960, 1961, 1966)
MVP: 3 (1959, 1967, 1968)
Weak MVP: 2 (1958, 1969)
All-nba: 1 (1957)
All-star: 0
Sub all-star: 0
Role player: 0


Wilt Chamberlain

GOAT-level: 2 (1964, 1967)
All-time: 2 (1962, 1968)
MVP: 4 (1960, 1963, 1965, 1966)
Weak MVP: 3 (1961, 1972, 1973)
All-nba: 2 (1969, 1971)
All-star: 0
Sub all-star: 1 (1970)
Role player: 0


Thanks, I really think you underrate Kareem in 71 & 72, he has the highest and 3rd highest TS add seasons in history,.
He also rebounded better - 5th and 6th in the league vs 12th in 74 and 7th in 77, and anchored the best defense in the league.
Also interesting you gave Russell more GOAT seasons than any of the other 3.
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Re: Updating my top 50 

Post#156 » by 70sFan » Mon Jun 19, 2023 9:07 pm

DQuinn1575 wrote:Thanks, I really think you underrate Kareem in 71 & 72, he has the highest and 3rd highest TS add seasons in history,.

I have been thinking about it for a while and I try not to overrate Kareem here. I have some reservations about his offensive resiliency and overall skillset compared to the later versions. I think the league was very inbalanced in the early 1970s and it caused the best teams to dominate to ridiculous degree, but I also think that Kareem was GOAT-worthy player in these seasons. I don't know, maybe I should have put these seasons in the GOAT tier...

He also rebounded better - 5th and 6th in the league vs 12th in 74 and 7th in 77,

Mostly due to minutes played:

1971: 18.9 TRB% in RS, 19.2 TRB% in PS
1972: 18.1 TRB% in RS, 17.0 TRB% in PS
1973: 18.2 TRB% in RS, 18.3 TRB% in PS
1974: 16.9 TRB% in RS, 17.9 TRB% in PS
1975: 17.3 TRB% in RS
1976: 19.6 TRB% in RS
1977: 18.4 TRB% in RS, 21.6 TRB% in PS

Kareem was consistently great, but not GOAT-level rebounder throughout his physical prime. He had a bit down year on the boards in 1974, but nothing too big to knock him down for.

and anchored the best defense in the league.

That's legit point, Bucks Kareem was a remarkable defender - probably better than 1977 Kareem.

Also interesting you gave Russell more GOAT seasons than any of the other 3.

I didn't plan it that way, but it reflects my thoughts about Russell well - I'm not sure if he had the best peak ever, but I have little doubts that he had the best 5 years stretch in the league history quite clearly.
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Re: Updating my top 50 

Post#157 » by OhayoKD » Tue Jun 20, 2023 1:04 am

Somewhat tangential but...
AEnigma wrote:
trex_8063 wrote:When a player is better, that self-relative ranking hardly matters. And as a scale of accomplishment and performance, frankly 1992 Jordan is a hell of a lot closer to peak Kobe in the postseason than any Malone season is to 1995 Hakeem.
.

people seem to have a preference for setting artificial limits on how the "peak" version of a player can compare to another "peak" version of a player and then conveniently scale-down(or up) everything else to justify that conclusion. If a player is putting multiple "non-peak" years that look more impressive than another guy, the logical extrapolation is not "this is noise and should be dismissed", it's "i have probably under-estimated the gap between these 2 players".

What Ben and others have done with 2013 Lebron(scale-down everything before and after miami because it's not "peak") is one of the more egregious examples, but even when people are talking about players they are preferential to...
70sFan wrote:
DQuinn1575 wrote:Thanks, I really think you underrate Kareem in 71 & 72, he has the highest and 3rd highest TS add seasons in history,.

I have been thinking about it for a while and I try not to overrate Kareem here. I have some reservations about his offensive resiliency and overall skillset compared to the later versions. I think the league was very inbalanced in the early 1970s and it caused the best teams to dominate to ridiculous degree, but I also think that Kareem was GOAT-worthy player in these seasons. I don't know, maybe I should have put these seasons in the GOAT tier...
.

If you're following the evidence, then you shouldn't worry about overrating who you're evaluating. The Lakers went 8-1(+10 and +17) against non-kareem opposition in round 2 and the finals of the playoffs. Taking away "inflation" with san's standard deviation,the 72 Lakers and the 71 and 72 Bucks still score higher than the 2000 Lakers. Kareem outscored the first team I just listed and led the two other teams, notably doing the first bit with oscar banged up, and having the lakers playing like a champion in games oscar missed entirely. Can you construct good positive arguments against 72 for all of the non-kareem "peaks" you currently have a tier higher? Can you construct one from surrounding years from those peaks?

Kareem obviously still has a big defensive advantage against people like peak shaq and such, and obviously has a big offensive advantage over someone like peak wilt. How does Kareem being limited offensively relative to himself matter for how he compares to a Shaq, a Wilt, a Jordan, or a Lebron?

Internal-scaling inofitself establishes nothing about how a player compares to everyone else. We currently have no real way to derive an upper-limit to player goodness or an upper-limit to what the gaps between great players can be situationally let alone what the gaps are across a variety of situations. 72 Kareem<74 Kareem does not establish anything about 72 Kareem and 2000 Shaq. Just like 2016 Lebron<2013 Lebron does not establish anything about 2016 Lebron and 1989 MJ.

If you're not establishing comparisons between different players directly, what good does looking at internal-scaling achieve? In most cases players have certain advantages and certain disadvantages in terms of skill-set. Player A protects the rim, player b protects the rim less but helps more. Player A scores and creates worse but player b puts opposing defenses in foul-trouble. Player A scores more and creates as much, Player B creates more efficiently and is a handful of players who can act as an on-court coach.

In any of these cases, player A can maintain an overall advantage over player b even if they've regressed from being an outright match for player b in a specific skill or attribute or set of attributes/skills. If a player still looks as or more valuable when they have yet to acquire certain skills, or have lost another skill(worth noting the skills people tend to fixate-on are scoring-related), the fact they had yet to acquire or have lost something may well just be outweighed by their pre-existing advantages(88,92/93 hakeem, 2015 Lebron, 69 Russell, and 05 Duncan come to mind)

Kareem can be less resilient offensively than he was in 74 and still be better than numerous goat-tier peaks because he can make defenses 4-points better/league-best and Shaq, Jordan, Magic, Bird have never come close(2001 is the only postseason of any of these guys where you can argue they anchored a good defense).

Ranking player is a comparative exercise. If you can't find positive comparisons for players with "goat-tier" peaks against "not-peak" years for another player, the most likely explanation is that those "goat-tier peaks" aren't really "goat-tier". And on that note...
70sFan wrote:
homecourtloss wrote:Bill Russell:

GOAT-level: 4 (1962-65)
All-time: 3 (1960, 1961, 1966)
MVP: 3 (1959, 1967, 1968)
Weak MVP: 2 (1958, 1969)
0

RK wrote:Bill Russell: 1958-59, 67

This is not a novel point, but I have not seen it addressed once: Unless you are not valuing era-relativity highly, putting 69 Russell at "weak mvp" makes negative sense. Even using RK's +5 assessment(derived by using noisy playoff d-rating and ignoring the larger sample of regular-season d-rating or the Celtic's overall shift in 70(which would place Russ at +7), Being worth 5-points of SRS in 1969 =/ Weak MVP.

If anyone feels differently, I would invite them to list 5 examples of players they think have ever, at any point, been worth more on their own, than the gap between average and the highest-srs mark in the league.

Unless your standard of good is "ability to help accumulate regular season-wins or point-differential", Russell is an easy "all-time" that year and any scaling should be applied accordingly
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Re: Updating my top 50 

Post#158 » by trex_8063 » Tue Jun 20, 2023 1:19 am

AEnigma wrote:
trex_8063 wrote:
I questioned positing peak-Malone not just one, but TWO tiers away from even the 3rd-best season of Hakeem. That seems high on Hakeem or low on Malone; or both.

It is neither. Again I will pull Kobe. 1992 is arguably not even a top three Jordan season, so how could that possibly be two tiers higher than Kobe’s best season????

When a player is better, that self-relative ranking hardly matters. And as a scale of accomplishment and performance, frankly 1992 Jordan is a hell of a lot closer to peak Kobe in the postseason than any Malone season is to 1995 Hakeem.

I do not need to cite only those two either. Is it conceivable that 2020 Lebron, which might not even be one of his five best years (although I do see it as one of his five best postseasons), is two tiers ahead of peak Barkley? Is it not likely that 1980 Kareem, which might not be a top three Kareem season, could be two tiers ahead of 1990 Ewing?



I hear what you're saying, I guess I just don't agree. All in the eye of the beholder, as it were.

I acknowledge I'm probably not as high on Hakeem as most people tend to be here. Personally, I think he gets more mileage out of the "carried a bunch of scrubs to a title" narrative than is strictly deserved.

There's no question his offensive game was remarkably resilient in the playoffs, and he had the ability to even scale volume UP slightly in his best seasons.
otoh, his offensive starting point (what he's maintaining and/or scaling up slightly from [in the playoffs]) is decidedly lower than any number of other stars we might spotlight (including Karl Malone).

Yes, he is ALSO a dominant defensive force.......although if I'm being honest about my own opinion, I don't think he was as dominant defensively as Tim Duncan, I don't think he was any MORE dominant that David Robinson, and I actually don't think he was too far ahead of Patrick Ewing.


And fwiw, I personally would not separate any of the other examples you've cited by two tiers, either.
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Re: Updating my top 50 

Post#159 » by OhayoKD » Tue Jun 20, 2023 6:10 am

trex_8063 wrote:
AEnigma wrote:
trex_8063 wrote:
I questioned positing peak-Malone not just one, but TWO tiers away from even the 3rd-best season of Hakeem. That seems high on Hakeem or low on Malone; or both.

It is neither. Again I will pull Kobe. 1992 is arguably not even a top three Jordan season, so how could that possibly be two tiers higher than Kobe’s best season????

When a player is better, that self-relative ranking hardly matters. And as a scale of accomplishment and performance, frankly 1992 Jordan is a hell of a lot closer to peak Kobe in the postseason than any Malone season is to 1995 Hakeem.

I do not need to cite only those two either. Is it conceivable that 2020 Lebron, which might not even be one of his five best years (although I do see it as one of his five best postseasons), is two tiers ahead of peak Barkley? Is it not likely that 1980 Kareem, which might not be a top three Kareem season, could be two tiers ahead of 1990 Ewing?



I hear what you're saying, I guess I just don't agree. All in the eye of the beholder, as it were.

I acknowledge I'm probably not as high on Hakeem as most people tend to be here. Personally, I think he gets more mileage out of the "carried a bunch of scrubs to a title" narrative than is strictly deserved.

There's no question his offensive game was remarkably resilient in the playoffs, and he had the ability to even scale volume UP slightly in his best seasons.
otoh, his offensive starting point (what he's maintaining and/or scaling up slightly from [in the playoffs]) is decidedly lower than any number of other stars we might spotlight (including Karl Malone).

Yes, he is ALSO a dominant defensive force.......although if I'm being honest about my own opinion, I don't think he was as dominant defensively as Tim Duncan, I don't think he was any MORE dominant that David Robinson, and I actually don't think he was too far ahead of Patrick Ewing.


And fwiw, I personally would not separate any of the other examples you've cited by two tiers, either.

Hmm...
Hakeem is one of a handful of players(post-russell, we're talking Lebron, Kareem, Robinson) to post 25+-win lift multiple times. Worth noting that this is around where RAPM tends to distribute superstar impact to role players. His peak signals(>10gm/szn filter) are arguably era-best.

Of course, a common knock on Hakeem is his consistency as an RS performer, but even over longer periods, he looks quite good. IIRC, if you use 10-year samples...

Hakeem takes 33-win teams to 48 wins
Jordan takes 38-win teams to 53.5 wins
Magic takes 44-win teams to 59 wins

Keeping in mind that it's harder to lift better teams, Hakeem comes marginally behind Jordan, and slightly more behind Magic, but he's right up there with both.

Ben has his own(presumably more sophisticated) approach which likes Hakeem even better; "Prime WOWY" ranks Olajuwon 10th. Magic and Jordan rank 12th and 20th, respectively. Keep in mind the samples here are much, much smaller, but at least there aren't extraneous distortions to worry about as we may with something like WOWYR

Some other things to consider
-> The Rockets were unaffected by long absences of "all-star" help like sampson and thorpe(87 and 93 respectively),
-> Hakeem faced, by far, the worst off-court situation of the 3(management starts beef for no reason, coke starts taking out rotation pieces as early as 1986)
-> Hakeem is one of two guys to post a positive record as an srs underdog(the other is Lebron),
-> the 1994-1995 Rockets jumped to 65-win bball in the playoffs
-> By PSRS(sansterre), the 1986 Lakers(who the Rockets, 5-5 without Hakeem, beat in 5) were better than any team anyone else mentioned here has triumphed over with the exception of Rookie Magic on the 1980 Lakers

If anything, I think Hakeem does not get nearly enough milage from what he was doing before 1994. I don't see much separating Regular-Season Hakeem from folks we wouldn't dare compare Ewing or Robinson to beyond box-aggregates which consistently are much lower on paint-protectors than impact-on-winning is. Hakeem's also the best playoff-riser of anyone here as reflected both in his "production" as well as the performances of a team that was almost always unremarkable or outright bad without him.

As things were, he looks arguably era-best from a purely basketball perspective. He might have been the clear best if he wasn't drafted to a test-run for KG's Timberwolves
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Re: Updating my top 50 

Post#160 » by 70sFan » Tue Jun 20, 2023 7:31 am

OhayoKD wrote:If you're following the evidence, then you shouldn't worry about overrating who you're evaluating. The Lakers went 8-1(+10 and +17) against non-kareem opposition in round 2 and the finals of the playoffs. Taking away "inflation" with san's standard deviation,the 72 Lakers and the 71 and 72 Bucks still score higher than the 2000 Lakers. Kareem outscored the first team I just listed and led the two other teams, notably doing the first bit with oscar banged up, and having the lakers playing like a champion in games oscar missed entirely. Can you construct good positive arguments against 72 for all of the non-kareem "peaks" you currently have a tier higher? Can you construct one from surrounding years from those peaks?

I think I can, but you're giving me solid arguments for reconsidering 1972 case for GOAT-level peak. This one, along with 2016 and 2017 James, are the ones that gave me the most trouble to choose. These cutoffs are always a bit arbitrary and the change wouldn't make any difference in the final ranking, for what it's worth.


Kareem obviously still has a big defensive advantage against people like peak shaq and such, and obviously has a big offensive advantage over someone like peak wilt. How does Kareem being limited offensively relative to himself matter for how he compares to a Shaq, a Wilt, a Jordan, or a Lebron?

Internal-scaling inofitself establishes nothing about how a player compares to everyone else. We currently have no real way to derive an upper-limit to player goodness or an upper-limit to what the gaps between great players can be situationally let alone what the gaps are across a variety of situations. 72 Kareem<74 Kareem does not establish anything about 72 Kareem and 2000 Shaq. Just like 2016 Lebron<2013 Lebron does not establish anything about 2016 Lebron and 1989 MJ.

If you're not establishing comparisons between different players directly, what good does looking at internal-scaling achieve? In most cases players have certain advantages and certain disadvantages in terms of skill-set. Player A protects the rim, player b protects the rim less but helps more. Player A scores and creates worse but player b puts opposing defenses in foul-trouble. Player A scores more and creates as much, Player B creates more efficiently and is a handful of players who can act as an on-court coach.

In any of these cases, player A can maintain an overall advantage over player b even if they've regressed from being an outright match for player b in a specific skill or attribute or set of attributes/skills. If a player still looks as or more valuable when they have yet to acquire certain skills, or have lost another skill(worth noting the skills people tend to fixate-on are scoring-related), the fact they had yet to acquire or have lost something may well just be outweighed by their pre-existing advantages(88,92/93 hakeem, 2015 Lebron, 69 Russell, and 05 Duncan come to mind)

Kareem can be less resilient offensively than he was in 74 and still be better than numerous goat-tier peaks because he can make defenses 4-points better/league-best and Shaq, Jordan, Magic, Bird have never come close(2001 is the only postseason of any of these guys where you can argue they anchored a good defense).

Why do you think that I don't do comparisons across different players? I responded to DQuinn1575's post which clearly was about the comparison of younger vs older Kareem. It doesn't mean I don't do comparisons between different players directly, it's impossible to create such list without it.


This is not a novel point, but I have not seen it addressed once: Unless you are not valuing era-relativity highly, putting 69 Russell at "weak mvp" makes negative sense. Even using RK's +5 assessment(derived by using noisy playoff d-rating and ignoring the larger sample of regular-season d-rating or the Celtic's overall shift in 70(which would place Russ at +7), Being worth 5-points of SRS in 1969 =/ Weak MVP.

It's another tough season to rate, but when I evaluate given year, I always look at the combination of impact, skillset and RS+PS performance. In Russell's case, it was clear that he had an immense impact on his team. The thing is that impact can be situational, in some cases players show impact signals that underrate their value (see 2011 James for example), sometimes it's the opposite.

I think that Russell's defensive pressence was enormous. I have got quite a lot of footage from 1968/69 season in recent years and he looks as good as ever on defensive end there (if you'd like to, we can create a new thread where I will upload videos). At the same time though, I also see how his offensive game deteriorated even from 1967. At this point he was a legit negative on offense, though to be fair he doesn't look nearly as bad when he didn't have to face Wilt on the other end (he looks quite decent against Reed and the Knicks). With that in mind, I struggle to put him higher than MVP tier, because of that weakness. Maybe I should put him at the MVP level, but anything beyond that is tough to sell for me, considering the games I have seen.

If anyone feels differently, I would invite them to list 5 examples of players they think have ever, at any point, been worth more on their own, than the gap between average and the highest-srs mark in the league.

I mean, you can find such examples. 1982 Moses Malone for example - the Rockets went from -0.4 SRS to -11.1 SRS with his absence (and they got a solid replacement in Caldwell Jones, unlike Russell). I think you are against putting Moses anywhere near all-time tier, right?

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