Interesting article. Good break down of lottery pick trades and the post-trade results. Article begins noting Dame led the league in offensive estimated BPM of 8.1 per 100.
What Does History Say Portland Should Do With the No. 3 Pick?
Should the Trail Blazers take Scoot Henderson or Brandon Miller, or trade their pick to maximize Damian Lillard’s prime? To better sort through the 2023 NBA draft’s most interesting dilemma, we examine every deal this century in which a team exchanged a top pick for immediate veteran help.
Tier A: Led to a Championship
Lakers trade no. 4 pick in 2019 (De’Andre Hunter) for Anthony Davis
Cavaliers trade no. 1 pick in 2014 (Andrew Wiggins) for Kevin Love
Celtics trade no. 5 pick in 2007 (Jeff Green) for Ray Allen
Here’s the good news for Portland: These three precedents show that it’s possible to convert a top pick into a chance at a title-winning roster upgrade. Both the Lakers and Celtics won championships the very next season after making these trades, while the Cavaliers reached the Finals in Year 1 and won it all in Year 2.
It’s not as if any of these championship teams were much better positioned before making these trades than Portland is now. The Lakers didn’t make the playoffs in 2019, the Cavaliers in 2014, or the Celtics in 2007. (Naturally—that’s how they landed high lottery picks in the first place.)
But here’s the bad news for Portland: Those championship turnarounds required not just one, but two star additions. The 2019-20 Lakers didn’t just need Davis, but also a healthy LeBron James, who’d played a career-low number of games the previous season. The 2014-15 Cavaliers benefited from LeBron’s return to Cleveland, in addition to Love. And the 2007-08 Celtics brought in Allen and Kevin Garnett together.
And unfortunately for the Trail Blazers, they don’t have the means to acquire two stars this summer. The best they’re likely to do in free agency is re-sign Jerami Grant, who already played for the team that missed the playoffs last season. Anfernee Simons is another possible trade chip, but he’d probably be included in any swap of the no. 3 pick, the same way that Brandon Ingram and Lonzo Ball were also part of the Davis trade, or Anthony Bennett was also part of the Love trade. Shaedon Sharpe is reportedly “off limits” in trade talks this summer.
So, can Portland parlay a pick trade into a Finals run? It’s possible. But because they’d be hard-pressed to follow both steps their potential predecessors took, it’s mighty unlikely.
I disagree Portland can't add 2 stars. To do it they need to unlock their draft picks and let go of Sharpe but Sharpe and 3 can't be in the same deal.
Tier B: No Championship, but No Regrets Either
Pelicans trade no. 6 pick in 2013 (Nerlens Noel) for Jrue Holiday
Rockets trade no. 8 pick in 2006 (Rudy Gay) for Shane Battier
Wizards trade no. 5 pick in 2004 (Devin Harris) for Antawn Jamison
Clippers trade no. 2 pick in 2001 (Tyson Chandler) for Elton Brand
Tier C: Could’ve Been Worse
Timberwolves trade no. 7 pick in 2017 (Lauri Markkanen) for Jimmy Butler
Bobcats trade no. 8 pick in 2007 (Brandan Wright) for Jason Richardson
Tier D: Outright Disaster
Wizards trade no. 5 pick in 2009 (Ricky Rubio) for Randy Foye and Mike Miller
Suns trade no. 7 pick in 2004 (Luol Deng) for, essentially, the cap space used to sign Quentin Richardson
Knicks trade no. 7 pick in 2002 (Nene) for Antonio McDyess
Hawks trade no. 3 pick in 2001 (Pau Gasol) for Shareef Abdur-Rahim
https://www.theringer.com/nba-draft/2023/6/20/23766680/portland-trail-blazers-2023-draft-dilemma-3-pick-trade-damian-lillard-scoot-henderson-brandon-miller