Captain Ballmer wrote:TrueLAfan wrote:^^This. We just went from about 50-50 on making a major deal to about 90-10 against it. The new CBA constrains us/teams like us significantly.
I think the Eric Gordon release kinda foreshadowed this. He's a guy that only would have provided a (possible) plus for a year or two, at an above market average price that ballooned into a massive financial hit because of the luxury tax apron(s).
We're not out of the trade market yet, but the likelihood is smaller. OTOH, I think the chances of something I've suspected might happen have increased. I think the other thing we've done--the release of commentary that we may not be willing to pay full max extension money to PG and Kawhi (which I think is a total team leak) will end up with at least one if not both of them renegotiating their deals after this season to a deal that includes 2024/5. I could see a request to being--look, we can't give you the max with the injury issues. We just can't. Maybe you'll find someone who will back up the money truck for you--maybe you won't. But we can offer 4 years/$156 million--with salary drops each year. $45 million, $41 million, $38 million, $35 million, with a player option/$10 million buyout in the fourth year. It's kinda similar to what CP3 did in Phoenix, and that helped that team build substantially. The thing is, those dropping salary deals make the final years of the deal a much easier pay pill to swallow, or trade off. The way the cap is rising, an MLE salary will be nearer $20 million than $15 million in a couple of years. If we don't do a deal now, I think one or both of PG13 and Kawhi will be offered deals like that.
But otoh, at best 3rd option guys like FVV getting 43 million per year fully guaranteed. Doubt they will accept to take back seat like Kyrie does with their "clean" public image.
Yes and no. I think I might start a thread here (or on the General Board) about paying players who play and the new pay scaling factors. Fred VanVleet has a lousy midrange game, but he consistently plays 80% of his team’s games and plays 35+ minutes. He’s a good defender, very good perimeter shooter, plays well without the ball, and doesn’t make mistakes as a very good passing guard. He can run your offense fine, thanks—and scores pretty well on top of that. You do that for 65 games a year and put up 19-6.5-4 as a starter, you’re going to get big coin at 29. He’s not my favorite player or type of player, but he’s an Ime Udoka type player.
But I think the new TV contract is going to keep pumping up salaries for a while, and I do see the point that there will start to be more separation between MLE players (13-15 million a year) and max players. I think there will start to 3-4 levels between those groups:
This is starting to play out. Jerami Grant is a very good player. Max player? No. Injury risk? Yup. Young/In Prime? Yup. He’s getting $30 million a year. Chris Paul—Max player who is old and is an injury risk. Also a $30 million guy. Khris Middleton? Borderline max guy who is younger but actually a greater injury concern. Also around $30 million. Players have always been paid on ability and potential; more and more, they will be getting paid on how much they’re actually playing. That’s what I think management will tell Paul George and Kawhi Leonard, anyway.