What's the strongest data-driven argument for Michael Jordan as GOAT?

[70sFan]

Oh I've seen the kinds of things cited. What I don't get is how one can logically take it all together and get the results you get. On second thought that's not entirely true. Actually I do get what's going on. Certain criteria are being selectively cited when convenient and then ignored when not. I don't think asking is going to change anything

So you are not interested in any type of creative discussion, nothing changed since last few years.

What would be radical is for those in charge of the process to actually uphold its integrity rather than being witting tools of those making a mockery of it.

I think you should focus more on the topic instead of trying to sound smart. You have already made a fool of yourself in the last cinematography talk, there is no need to go deeper to the mud.

[twyzted]

Try this bullshyt on casuals. Im a laker stan, i remember how many games were lost to injuries. I dont know if you just didnt know or if your tried to slip this crap in, lol

Ingram, Lonzo Ball and Rondo missed 30+ games. Bron missed 27. Even Kuzma missed 12

No actually Lebron missed 17 with injury and when he returned they were 26-25.
Then they had Kuzma, ingram and Lebron for 1 game.
Lebron missed 1 game.
Then kuzma, ingram and Lbj played 4 games (1-3), 29-29 before Lebron activated playoff mode.
They proceed to go 1-4 before Ingram gets injured.
Things didnt get any better from there.
Lebron missed 3 games in the next 13 games.
Before Deactivating playoff mode and skiping the last 6 games.

The bolded part lets me know how you feel off top, lol. You're one of those people obsessed with (hating) him.

Anyway, we also omitted the early season fight against Houston that got Ingram and Rondo suspended. The team was never able to get any chemistry because of games missed but if you want to, and im sure you do, want to put this all on Brons back, cool.

They got suspended at the begining of the season.
They didnt get chemistry because Lebron wanted to trade them for AD. here ingram talks about the rumours effect on the young guys.
Lebron stated that he had activated Playoff mode.

But hey im not the one who shows up in every Jordan thread repeating:
Bulls won 55 in 94.
Jordan didnt do anything without Pippen and phil.

But then the same is used logic is used, you pull all of the excuses out.
Lebron got injured.
They had no chemistry.

[WarriorGM]

Oh I've seen the kinds of things cited. What I don't get is how one can logically take it all together and get the results you get. On second thought that's not entirely true. Actually I do get what's going on. Certain criteria are being selectively cited when convenient and then ignored when not. I don't think asking is going to change anything

So you are not interested in any type of creative discussion, nothing changed since last few years.

Discussing the many ways the LeBron board incessantly contradicts itself would be amusing.

Are you self-aware enough to identify any of it?

What would be radical is for those in charge of the process to actually uphold its integrity rather than being witting tools of those making a mockery of it.

I think you should focus more on the topic instead of trying to sound smart. You have already made a fool of yourself in the last cinematography talk, there is no need to go deeper to the mud.

Yes I've been making a complete fool of myself saying Curry was the best player in the league that past few years even when everyone else was saying he was going to be exposed while the LeBron board was picking KD and Chris Paul ahead of him and claiming LeBron is the greatest. Sure whatever you say. Tell me the next time you get anything right.

[OdomFan]

The bulls won 57 games in 1993.

MJ retired.

The bulls then won 55 games in 1994.

Maybe you should hush with team accomplishments. He obviously had a superior team that most stars.

Yea, Im not gonna hush, but ill point out that its pretty sad how you can't understand that MJ wasn't handed that "superior team" as you put it. He helped built that chemistry as the leader by doing exactly what I pointed out above.

Also it says a lot that you can't understand the importance of one other simple fact. The 1994 Bulls still had Phil Jackson coaching them with that same exact team Triangle offense system, and defensive play that won them the 1st three peat, yet some how people like yourself out there continue to act like it's so surprising that the team didn't fall apart when Michael retired.

Again that is the difference between Michael and Lebron. Lebron WAS the system, and Michael accepted a great one and allowed it to grow. Allowed Phil Jackson to actually do his job and in turn that is how Phil became a legendary coach that my Lakers were honored to bring over years later to help Shaq and Kobe win a three peat of their own.

Lebron never had any such coach. Instead his coaches all had him do it all, and then without him they were left scratching their heads on what to do next. This is what you call greatest ever? any where close to it? I disagree.

[lessthanjake]

The bulls won 57 games in 1993.

MJ retired.

The bulls then won 55 games in 1994.

Maybe you should hush with team accomplishments. He obviously had a superior team that most stars.

The lakers won 35 games in 2018 srs of -1.44.

added Lebron.

won 37 games srs of -1.33.

Wasnt enough having 2x#2 picks on the team needed more help.

Try this bullshyt on casuals. Im a laker stan, i remember how many games were lost to injuries. I dont know if you just didnt know or if your tried to slip this crap in, lol

Ingram, Lonzo Ball and Rondo missed 30+ games. Bron missed 27. Even Kuzma missed 12

They had people miss games the prior year too, though. Lonzo had missed 30 games the previous year. Ingram had missed 23 games. KCP missed a handful of games in 2017-2018 and didn’t miss any in 2018-2019. In general, the 2017-2018 Lakers just had tons of players who missed a lot of time—not a steady roster at all. Furthermore, the 2018-2019 Lakers actually had a negative net rating with all their starters on the floor (LeBron, Ingram, Kuzma, Ball, McGee), so this isn’t some team that was great when healthy.

The reality is that the 2018-2019 season was one where the typical back-of-the-napkin inferences people use to determine a player’s impact on a team suggest that LeBron had very little impact. The team was essentially no better at all than the year before LeBron joined. But then, there’s other instances in LeBron’s career where such inferences indicate he had a lot of impact—such as teams collapsing after he’s left. I think there’s a tendency for some people to use this sort of analysis to the extent it helps their argument and then to ignore instances when it doesn’t. But the fact that it sometimes makes a player look really good and sometimes makes the exact same player look not good at all actually suggests that the analytical method itself is probably not very good. There’s just so much randomness in analysis like this, especially since there’s just a million other factors that go into how well a team does year to year beyond just one player.

[70sFan]

Yes I've been making a complete fool of myself saying Curry was the best player in the league that past few years even when everyone else was saying he was going to be exposed while the LeBron board was picking KD and Chris Paul ahead of him and claiming LeBron is the greatest. Sure whatever you say.

The "Curry got exposed" thread was created on this board, not on PC Board.

People picked KD and Paul because of longevity, not because they thought Curry was worse than them. Curry already gets consideration for top 10 during this project. It was in 2020, when Curry's prime lasted a total of 7 seasons if you're being generous.

You don't understand CORP evaluation models, that's fine, but it doesn't mean that you can pretend that you are smarter than others.

By the way, for all this talk of Curry being the greatest, you've been quiet about this season for some reason. I wonder why...

[The4thHorseman]

No actually Lebron missed 17 with injury and when he returned they were 26-25.
Then they had Kuzma, ingram and Lebron for 1 game.
Lebron missed 1 game.
Then kuzma, ingram and Lbj played 4 games (1-3), 29-29 before Lebron activated playoff mode.
They proceed to go 1-4 before Ingram gets injured.
Things didnt get any better from there.
Lebron missed 3 games in the next 13 games.
Before Deactivating playoff mode and skiping the last 6 games.

The bolded part lets me know how you feel off top, lol. You're one of those people obsessed with (hating) him.

Anyway, we also omitted the early season fight against Houston that got Ingram and Rondo suspended. The team was never able to get any chemistry because of games missed but if you want to, and im sure you do, want to put this all on Brons back, cool.

They got suspended at the begining of the season.
They didnt get chemistry because Lebron wanted to trade them for AD. here ingram talks about the rumours effect on the young guys.
Lebron stated that he had activated Playoff mode.

But hey im not the one who shows up in every Jordan thread repeating:
Bulls won 55 in 94.
Jordan didnt do anything without Pippen and phil.

But then the same is used logic is used, you pull all of the excuses out.
Lebron got injured.
They had no chemistry.

Where's the quote in your link that specifies LeBron was the one who wanted to trade for Davis? You're basically insinuating that LA had to be talked into pursuing a trade for AD.

[NZB2323]

Try this bullshyt on casuals. Im a laker stan, i remember how many games were lost to injuries. I dont know if you just didnt know or if your tried to slip this crap in, lol

Ingram, Lonzo Ball and Rondo missed 30+ games. Bron missed 27. Even Kuzma missed 12

No actually Lebron missed 17 with injury and when he returned they were 26-25.
Then they had Kuzma, ingram and Lebron for 1 game.
Lebron missed 1 game.
Then kuzma, ingram and Lbj played 4 games (1-3), 29-29 before Lebron activated playoff mode.
They proceed to go 1-4 before Ingram gets injured.
Things didnt get any better from there.
Lebron missed 3 games in the next 13 games.
Before Deactivating playoff mode and skiping the last 6 games.

The bolded part lets me know how you feel off top, lol. You're one of those people obsessed with (hating) him.

Anyway, we also omitted the early season fight against Houston that got Ingram and Rondo suspended. The team was never able to get any chemistry because of games missed but if you want to, and im sure you do, want to put this all on Brons back, cool.

It’s called adding context.

People don’t add context to 1994, how the Bulls added Kukoc, Longley, and Kerr, were the deepest team in the league, and won a bunch of close games during the season.

People don’t add context to 1993, how the Bulls were like the 2001 Lakers or 2018 Warriors…they were burnt out from their championship runs and didn’t try hard during the regular season. They won 67 games in 92 and 57 in 93.

People talk about how “The Bulls team without Jordan,” almost beat the Knicks…but they needed a game winning shot from a guy who wasn’t on the team in 1993 to force a game 7…that they lost by 10 points. In 1992 when the Knicks forced a game 7 the Bulls won by 29.

Same thing with the “Jordan never won without Pippen,” comment. Yeah, Jordan didn’t win a playoff series his first 2 years in the league. Lebron didn’t make the playoffs his first 2 years in the league.

Then the “it’s better to make the finals than lose in the first round.” Comment. Isn’t it better to lose in the first round than miss the playoffs? Wasn’t it easier to make the Finals in the East from 2003-2018 than it was from 1985-1998?

Then RAPM is used…which says a 40 year old John Stockton is the GOAT.

[WarriorGM]

Yes I've been making a complete fool of myself saying Curry was the best player in the league that past few years even when everyone else was saying he was going to be exposed while the LeBron board was picking KD and Chris Paul ahead of him and claiming LeBron is the greatest. Sure whatever you say.

The "Curry got exposed" thread was created on this board, not on PC Board.

People picked KD and Paul because of longevity, not because they thought Curry was worse than them. Curry already gets consideration for top 10 during this project. It was in 2020, when Curry's prime lasted a total of 7 seasons if you're being generous.

You don't understand CORP evaluation models, that's fine, but it doesn't mean that you can pretend that you are smarter than others.

CORP evaluation models? Is that what it is? Looks like BS. Even for something completely backward looking and thus easier to model it still doesn't make sense.

By the way, for all this talk of Curry being the greatest, you've been quiet about this season for some reason. I wonder why...

They won the previous year; I expected some complacency. The Poole incident didn't inspire confidence. Kerr's insistence on playing three guards didn't either. Depending on Wiseman to plug the big role was a prayer. Not much to get too excited about. Should I have been louder?

[dj20001]

Every time the 6/6 finals argument is used, a kitten dies. Think about the kittens fellas.

Then think about why it’s better to lose in rounds 1-3 than it is to lose in the finals.

Now we know you have a Jordan bias, because only people with a Jordan bias would use that argument. Just focus on other arguments, because using that argument over and over only shows that bias.

There is no bigger stage than the NBA finals so it does mean something. Now Lebron has performed amazingly in some of those losses so you can’t just use how many losses, but some of the losses are inexcusable. Obviously Dallas matters, the biggest stage, the heavily favored team and just an awful performance. That matters.

Let’s go through the list:

2007: took an insane performance from LeBron to get to the finals, his team was overmatched in the finals

2011: I will give you this one of course, they lost to Dallas as a favorite.

2014: This one kind of a wash, they lost as a slight underdog.

2015: lost his 2nd and 3rd best players to injury, still took the Warriors to 6

2017-18: completely overmatched, KD Warriors

Jordan has won as a favorite every time, and lost as an underdog every time. LeBron has often won as an underdog, in many of those runs through the east, and a few times lost as a favorite.

That finals streak is an argument in Lebron’s favor, anyone saying anything otherwise is being silly or biased.

Its just dumb to bring up comp altogether bc the argument works in favor for and against, every single player being discussed in one season or another.

What excuse should we make for the teams/players who lost to LBJ in the Finals when he had the better team?

[70sFan]

CORP evaluation models? Is that what it is? Looks like BS. Even for something completely backward looking and thus easier to model it still doesn't make sense.

"I don't know that something exists and I don't understand it, so I call it BS to make my life easier"

They won the previous year; I expected some complacency. The Poole incident didn't inspire confidence. Kerr's insistence on playing three guards didn't either. Depending on Wiseman to plug the big role was a prayer. Not much to get too excited about. Should I have been louder?

So now you want to contextualize the situation? I thought it's not allowed in discussion with you.

[WarriorGM]

CORP evaluation models? Is that what it is? Looks like BS. Even for something completely backward looking and thus easier to model it still doesn't make sense.

"I don't know that something exists and I don't understand it, so I call it BS to make my life easier"

Oh I understand a model giving an advantage to someone who entered the league directly from high school instead of going through college is a biased model that reeks of BS among other deficiencies it has.

Maybe you should explain why you think it isn't BS.

They won the previous year; I expected some complacency. The Poole incident didn't inspire confidence. Kerr's insistence on playing three guards didn't either. Depending on Wiseman to plug the big role was a prayer. Not much to get too excited about. Should I have been louder?

So now you want to contextualize the situation? I thought it's not allowed in discussion with you.

I don't think it is my issue if you don't know how to have a conversation with me. I suggest you fix things on your end.

[KembaWalker]

still wondering what greatness has to do with a bunch of twisted up on/off data

wake me up when someone has a statue built commemorating their WOWY score


maybe they should start hanging spreadsheet printouts from the rafters instead of jerseys

[KrAzY3]

Jordan has won as a favorite every time, and lost as an underdog every time.

Jordan won on the road twice in the NBA Finals...

[70sFan]

Oh I understand a model giving an advantage to someone who entered the league directly from high school instead of going through college is a biased model that reeks of BS among other deficiencies it has.

Players coming straight from HS usually don't get any additional value from their first seasons because they are not good enough to contribute at all in their career value.

I don't think it is my issue if you don't know how to have a conversation with me. I suggest you fix things on your end.

Are you sure the problem is with me? Have you ever considered that you may not be right in everything you say here?

[Hitachi77]

Jordan has won as a favorite every time, and lost as an underdog every time.

Jordan won on the road twice in the NBA Finals...

https://www.actionnetwork.com/nba/betting-odds-history-1990s-chicago-bulls-dynasty-michael-jordan

The Bulls were favorites in both those series.

I made a mistake, Jordan has lost as a favorite, against Orlando in the 1995 ECF. Using the logic here, had he won that series, and lost in the finals against the Rockets, his legacy would be worse because he would be 6/7 in the finals.

[gmoney411]

So now lebrons argument seems to be boiling down to - numbers are similar, and he played a lot longer. And even though he admittedly has achieved far less accolades it’s because the league is harder. Despite him playing with more talent than any other goat candidate and losing to some sub par teams along the way.

Uh, no. The argument is that

-> The numbers(those which track the improvement of teams) favor Lebron(peak/prime/average, ect) and suggest your assessment of help is wildly off when we track what his teams do without him

-> lebron beat multiple better playoff opponents for titles than jordan has beat at any round

-> Jordan being more "accomplished" is a matter of cherrypicking what counts as an "accomplishment" or not'

-> Lebron is a bigger, more versatile, and smarter player which historically correlates to having a bigger influence on winning

-> Lebron is a better defender and attacker in ways not captured by box-data which is why he the numbers go from "similar" to "better" if you use "impact" as opposed to the box-score(which only really tracks the end of a possession)

I listed out all "winning" data a few pages back, but these may be more in line with what you're looking for:
https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?p=104977078#p104977078
https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?p=104925727#p104925727
https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=6&t=2275063&start=260

covers skill-set, resume, competition/achievement, clutch, leadership, ect ect. Last link also has an inkling of "impact", but the winning data can be found in the middle of post #704(page 36)

I think it's without question that LeBron is the better all around player and the better floor raiser. I think the real argument for Jordan begins when you get to player optimization when team building. I think it's easier to find a Robin to Jordan's Batman. Jordan's peak skills are better than LeBron's and Jordan didn't really have any offensive or defensive flaws that you could advantage of. LeBron's skills sometimes border on diminishing returns because you don't need a player to be good at every aspect of the game in the way that LeBron is.

[Hitachi77]

There is no bigger stage than the NBA finals so it does mean something. Now Lebron has performed amazingly in some of those losses so you can’t just use how many losses, but some of the losses are inexcusable. Obviously Dallas matters, the biggest stage, the heavily favored team and just an awful performance. That matters.

Let’s go through the list:

2007: took an insane performance from LeBron to get to the finals, his team was overmatched in the finals

2011: I will give you this one of course, they lost to Dallas as a favorite.

2014: This one kind of a wash, they lost as a slight underdog.

2015: lost his 2nd and 3rd best players to injury, still took the Warriors to 6

2017-18: completely overmatched, KD Warriors

Jordan has won as a favorite every time, and lost as an underdog every time. LeBron has often won as an underdog, in many of those runs through the east, and a few times lost as a favorite.

That finals streak is an argument in Lebron’s favor, anyone saying anything otherwise is being silly or biased.

Its just dumb to bring up comp altogether bc the argument works in favor for and against, every single player being discussed in one season or another.

What excuse should we make for the teams/players who lost to LBJ in the Finals when he had the better team?

I mean, you would have to go through each individual case, like the above. The Pacers with Paul George did quite well against the LBJ Heat, and it’s not a knock on George that they ended up losing to a much better team.

[KrAzY3]

Jordan has won as a favorite every time, and lost as an underdog every time.

Jordan won on the road twice in the NBA Finals...

https://www.actionnetwork.com/nba/betting-odds-history-1990s-chicago-bulls-dynasty-michael-jordan

The Bulls were favorites in both those series.

I made a mistake, Jordan has lost as a favorite, against Orlando in the 1995 ECF. Using the logic here, had he won that series, and lost in the finals against the Rockets, his legacy would be worse because he would be 6/7 in the finals.

You are really jumping around to try to skew things.

The Bulls were a lower seed than the Magic, he never lost with home court, he did win multiple times without home court, but now you are going Vegas betting odds?

The Miami Heat were the favorites to win in 2011, they lost to a team that was +2000! Even as they entered the Finals, the Heat were -180. LeBron losing in series he was favored in happened multiple times though. For instance he lost as a -625 favorite against the Magic, since you seem to want to bring the Magic up... but sure, we are going to focus on that -185 instead. The Bulls team that lost to the Magic was a 47 win team, the LeBron team that lost to the Magic was a 66 win team.

Part of what you are trying to skirt is the fact that betting odds would still lean to Jordan even under adverse circumstances purely because he was Michael Jordan. So they expected Jordan to win in a way they never really expected LeBron to. And they of course were right. So to hold that against Jordan is like saying Jordan only won because he was so great. Well, yeah...

[twyzted]

The bolded part lets me know how you feel off top, lol. You're one of those people obsessed with (hating) him.

Anyway, we also omitted the early season fight against Houston that got Ingram and Rondo suspended. The team was never able to get any chemistry because of games missed but if you want to, and im sure you do, want to put this all on Brons back, cool.

They got suspended at the begining of the season.
They didnt get chemistry because Lebron wanted to trade them for AD. here ingram talks about the rumours effect on the young guys.
Lebron stated that he had activated Playoff mode.

But hey im not the one who shows up in every Jordan thread repeating:
Bulls won 55 in 94.
Jordan didnt do anything without Pippen and phil.

But then the same is used logic is used, you pull all of the excuses out.
Lebron got injured.
They had no chemistry.

Where's the quote in your link that specifies LeBron was the one who wanted to trade for Davis? You're basically insinuating that LA had to be talked into pursuing a trade for AD.

Im sure Pelinka thought of it all by himself.
Pelinka convinced a klutch player to signal to other teams that he wouldnt resign if traded to other team then the Lakers.
Do you really think Lebron didnt have a say?