RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #10 (Magic Johnson)

[OhayoKD]

Wanted to make sure to get a voting post in even if it might not be quite as in-depth as I had planned.

Vote: Steph Curry
I still have him as the GOAT PG. Offense-only, it's really hard to tell between him and Magic. Magic led better regular season offenses, and they led pretty similar offenses in the playoffs, but Steph did it in a tougher era and probably with slightly worse teammates on average. The post Durant years have probably all had worse league adjusted talent on offense than what Magic played with and the peak offenses even before Durant came on board were better than the peak Lakers' offenses all-around.

Ultimately, the differentiator is their defense. With years of data and observation, I feel that Curry is at absolute worst a league average defender, and probably a little above average. Meanwhile, Magic is almost universally regarded as a poor defender with the range being from a little below average to downright being a liability. This is extremely notable since usually legendary offensive players who win titles get a little bit of the benefit of the doubt with their defensive reputation with Kobe being a prime example as he was winning all-defense awards in years where he was actually one of the worst defensive guards in the entire NBA.

Alternate: Magic Johnson

Nomination: David Robinson
Absolute beast on both ends. Ranks 6th all-time in PER with 2 of the players ahead of him (Joker and AD) being guys who haven't hit their decline phase yet. 5th all-time in BPM and 2nd all-time in WS/48. Absolutely legendary defender who joined a below average defense as a rookie that would rank last in the league the year he was injured and led them to ranks of 3rd, 1st, 1st, 10th, 9th, 5th, and 3rd in the interim. Had 5 relatively prime years in the databall era (age 31-35) and over that period, he had an on/off of +6.1 in the regular season and +27.4 in the playoffs over that period. I think he was a better player than Bill Russell and I'll die on that hill.

Mhh, I think that basing your decision for curry over magic on defense is a bit meh, defining curry as "at absolute worst a league average defender" is a bit too much, he's someone who has had years where he was below average and season where he was average or slightly above average (starting pg defender), but also because he's mostly always been in a great defensive system with great defenders aroudn him, I mean he's still always kind of a liability. And magic was a bad defender but for 6'8, like, bad for a big wing, not for a pg. Like, I think that magic's defense at 6'8" was still better than a respectable average size defender, not of an elite one but I'd say, significantly better than curry's. It's the usual thing, people tend to judge compared to what a player could do. not compared to like an average player.

What’s the evidence that Curry was a below average defender? Some factual information on this: When teams tried to hunt him in the playoffs, it generally worked quite badly for them offensively. Relatedly, out of all Warriors players that got significant minutes in those four finals against the Cavaliers, the Cavaliers’ FG% was the lowest when Steph Curry was the closest defender. The Warriors have had really great defenses in general, including in the playoffs—which is actually quite difficult to do in the NBA these days if you have a bad defender, because teams will just exploit that person every time down court (offenses these days are kind of only as good as their lowest common denominator). Complex measures like EPM and RAPTOR tend to have Steph as, on average, a slightly above average defender. Indeed, EPM lists percentiles, and in the last decade (excluding 2019-2020), Steph averaged being just below the 70th percentile as a defender, and only one season was below the 50th percentile (2020-2021). He even had a season above the 90th percentile (2021-2022)! In the last decade in regular season + playoffs, the Warriors offense gets better with Steph on the floor, even if you control for whether Draymond is on (if Draymond is off, the defensive rating is 3.7 better if Steph is on, and if Draymond is on, then it is 0.9 better if Steph is on too).

I don’t think anyone would say Steph is an incredible defender, but I think the evidence suggests that he’s an above-average one, and I think it’d be hard to really make a good case that he’s below average.

Also not sure where Bird(very clearly not on Steph's level offensively by literally any evidence besides "1980 turnaround") is being assumed as a much better defender:

Spoiler:

3rd, trying to argue Bird anything close to a liability in his defensive role, just doesn't track with me. He was the secondary rim-protector in the starting line-ups, and their team results are suggestive of him doing well.

Are they?

Unless you have Bird's defense peaking at 80-82, this seems to me like a team whose defensive results don't really have much to do with what larry's doing.

And no. He was a tertiary who could be caught giving up wide open shots at the rim from basically nothing:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?t=3661&v=Nm2efjx9Xus&feature=youtu.be
For all the crazy "defensive iq" he apparently has, he could be baited into big f-ck-ups a fair bit and was often making questionable reads or ball-watching. Combine that with bad lateral agility and you can get some pretty horrific defensive performances:

This game was actually a pretty good example of why tossing box-aggregates is a quesitonable way of comparing different types of players. Bird had a whopping 14 defensive rebounds. Exactly 2 of them were uncontested. Pair this with Bird not being the guy deterring players at the rim and this basically means the vast majority of his boards were virtually worthless.

Nope. But they are better from 3 or at the rim or are a better relative to position. Shaq can foul out frontlines, Reggie can chuck 3's at higher volume on crazy effeciency and Dirk was a center who could shoot from everywhere.

And here again, Bird runs into a problem. He doesn't protect the rim or even have the size/strength to be played at center or PF without strong rim-help. But he also doesn't have the ball-handling or slashing of a small-forward. So you need unique teammates who can handle the ball and help him a bunch defensively. And this could prove very problematic in his time with the right opponent. The Pistons guards were just torching him over and over. And he couldn't get vertical seperation from their undersized rim-deterrents. And he couldn't exploit illegal d by driving and forcing them to pick between a double or single coverage. So the end result is, with a team thats pretty good without him(45-win 86-88, 45-win 89), the Celtics are outscored by a team with half their SRS in 87 and are decisvely thumped by a team with lesser srs in 88 as their offense plummets by 13 points.

Bird really shouldn't be considered here for anyone whose criteria doesn't center strongly on MVP voting

[HeartBreakKid]

Vote: Magic Johnson
Alternate Vote: Larry Bird


I haven't had either Bird or Magic in my top ten for a few years now. During this time though I've usually had Bird over Magic. I'll have to say Bird's scoring resilience is a bit of a problem for me. Lack of easy buckets is something that a lot of people overlook, as usually all time great players are great athletes and thus getting easy buckets is almost a given. Bird's post season scoring does take quite a hit. Magic is always incredibly efficient, and he can put a lot of pressure on offenses with his playmaking that is at least equivalent to Bird's off ball play.

It is plausible that Bird's defense makes him edge out Magic. Bird was a plus on defense for enough of his career to see that he is a good defender. Magic struggled a lot, and I used to think that as a forward his defense was decent, but on further evaluation it seems like he was pretty bleh even as a front court player.

I am not sure about Bird deserving my alternative vote. Some people have brought up good points in regards to Curry. I'll focus more on Bird's evaluation when he is a more serious candidate.

I ultimately will favor Magic over Curry because I just think Magic is super consistent which is the most important thing for me. Even though I favor peak, I do not care much about "single season" peak. Consistency amongst several seasons is a big sign of "goodness" because of sample size, which is why while Bird's 86 season is pretty great all the other surrounding seasons are not so much (in the playoffs).

Curry is up and down, not as much as Bird but they do have different circumstances. Curry benefits from the databall era, but it is difficult for me to imagine Magic not topping a lot of data ball stats (some of that due to lack of top tier competition). Curry is a better defender than Magic, but his defense doesn't move the needle. I think Magic's playmaking is likely a bit more valuable than Curry's shooting, and while Curry is a better overall scorer the gap between them closes in the post season. Magic can also give you some versatility by playing forward and crashing the boards which is a better bonus than Curry's defense.

I'm not voting for Mikan any time soon. I don't think he was that impressive playing in a segregated league. While that isn't his fault and he was likely the best player in the world regardless, I just don't see the value in him being the best player before the NBA became a major league and saying it's equal to someone like Larry Bird or something who was "only" 1A-1B in the 80s.


I nominate Oscar Robertson

[OhayoKD]

Vote: Magic Johnson]
Alternate Vote: Larry Bird
I am not sure about Bird deserving my alternative vote. Some people have brought up good points in regards to Curry. I'll focus more on Bird's evaluation when he is a more serious candidate.

To make you even less sure
https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?p=107842206#p107842206

[f4p]

Please note that, in the 2016-2017 season, the Spurs had an *incredible* -10.4 rDRTG in minutes where Kawhi was off the court (which was actually substantially better than their rDRTG in minutes Kawhi was on the court). While losing Kawhi was certainly a blow, I don’t think there’s a particularly good argument that missing Kawhi really made them notably worse defensively. Nor is there really a great argument that they weren’t still a good team without Kawhi—they had a +6.9 net rating with Kawhi off the court that year (and it was actually +7.98 if we take out low leverage situations, according to pbpstats).

and the toronto raptors were a good team without kawhi who would do things like get swept by the 2018 cavs when it was the playoffs. the best evidence that kawhi was pretty valuable in that series is:

with kawhi - 2017 wcf spurs:
+40 points per 48 minutes

without kawhi - 2017 wcf spurs:
-25 points per 48 minutes (which is over 3.5 games so it was consistent)

it literally went from the spurs waxing the warriors with kawhi to a 2001 lakers/spurs-level bludgeoning once kawhi was off. and it literally flipped to a totally uncompetitive series the second kawhi was off. clearly the spurs lost heart after the injury so trying to say we should act like the warriors actually destroyed a great defense when they were very much not destroying that defense with kawhi playing just makes no sense.

[OhayoKD]

Please note that, in the 2016-2017 season, the Spurs had an *incredible* -10.4 rDRTG in minutes where Kawhi was off the court (which was actually substantially better than their rDRTG in minutes Kawhi was on the court). While losing Kawhi was certainly a blow, I don’t think there’s a particularly good argument that missing Kawhi really made them notably worse defensively. Nor is there really a great argument that they weren’t still a good team without Kawhi—they had a +6.9 net rating with Kawhi off the court that year (and it was actually +7.98 if we take out low leverage situations, according to pbpstats).

and the toronto raptors were a good team without kawhi who would do things like get swept by the 2018 cavs when it was the playoffs. the best evidence that kawhi was pretty valuable in that series is:

with kawhi - 2017 wcf spurs:
+40 points per 48 minutes

without kawhi - 2017 wcf spurs:
-25 points per 48 minutes (which is over 3.5 games so it was consistent)

it literally went from the spurs waxing the warriors with kawhi to a 2001 lakers/spurs-level bludgeoning once kawhi was off. and it literally flipped to a totally uncompetitive series the second kawhi was off. clearly the spurs lost heart after the injury so trying to say we should act like the warriors actually destroyed a great defense when they were very much not destroying that defense with kawhi playing just makes no sense.

this is basically the process for Santerre's PSRS which was apparently too small-sample and noisy for use when it was inconvenient for the whole cieling raising thing...

That said, not sure why you're trying to scale the 2019 raptors of the 2018 raptors when their roster was more similar in 2020...(you kno when they were utterly unaffected by kawhi leaving defensively?)

Kawhi's the opposite of a playoff riser unless you cherrypick

[lessthanjake]

Please note that, in the 2016-2017 season, the Spurs had an *incredible* -10.4 rDRTG in minutes where Kawhi was off the court (which was actually substantially better than their rDRTG in minutes Kawhi was on the court). While losing Kawhi was certainly a blow, I don’t think there’s a particularly good argument that missing Kawhi really made them notably worse defensively. Nor is there really a great argument that they weren’t still a good team without Kawhi—they had a +6.9 net rating with Kawhi off the court that year (and it was actually +7.98 if we take out low leverage situations, according to pbpstats).

and the toronto raptors were a good team without kawhi who would do things like get swept by the 2018 cavs when it was the playoffs. the best evidence that kawhi was pretty valuable in that series is:

with kawhi - 2017 wcf spurs:
+40 points per 48 minutes

without kawhi - 2017 wcf spurs:
-25 points per 48 minutes (which is over 3.5 games so it was consistent)

it literally went from the spurs waxing the warriors with kawhi to a 2001 lakers/spurs-level bludgeoning once kawhi was off. and it literally flipped to a totally uncompetitive series the second kawhi was off. clearly the spurs lost heart after the injury so trying to say we should act like the warriors actually destroyed a great defense when they were very much not destroying that defense with kawhi playing just makes no sense.

I mean, that “with Kawhi” sample there is in a grand total of less than 24 minutes on the court. So I don’t see how we’d ever draw any conclusion from it about the Spurs team in general. 24 minutes is obviously noise. And of course the Spurs got destroyed by the Warriors. That’s exactly what we’re discussing the impressiveness of! The fact is that, aside from getting destroyed by Steph’s Warriors in the playoffs, the Spurs were really good that year without Kawhi. And they were really good the year before without Kawhi too—indicating that it was no fluke. Losing Kawhi obviously hurt the Spurs and made them less strong, but I think the evidence pretty strongly suggests they were at least a 4+ SRS team without Kawhi, such that they’d qualify for the analysis I did.

[One_and_Done]

Ok I'm switching to D.Rob for nomination.

[letskissbro]

Ceiling raising is when you have the best shooters ever at PG, SG, and SF and still fail to lead a better offense than the heliocentric dude playing spread PnR.

[OhayoKD]

Ceiling raising is when you have the best shooters ever at PG, SG, and SF and still fail to lead a better offense than the heliocentric dude playing spread PnR.

Magic 5-rings -> Floor-raiser
Kobe 5-rings -> Floor-Raiser
Steph 4-rings -> Ceiling-Raiser
Bird 3-rings -> Super Duper Ceiling-Raiser

[lessthanjake]

Overview of CORP-style Analysis/Methodology

So I did some analysis that I think encompasses to at least some degree how I think about career value in a quasi-CORP style way, and I’ll use Curry and Magic as examples. The method (which I’ll describe below) is certainly a bit back-of-the-napkin, but I think it provides an intuitive way of thinking about career value and is indicative of why I think Steph Curry’s career has been so valuable.

Basically, what I did is I took the SRS of Curry and Magic’s teams each season of their prime, just in games that they played. Then, I took the championship odds implied from that SRS, based on the percentages found at the end of the “Discussion” section of this post: https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?p=32836033#p32836033. Obviously the SRS for these players’ teams aren’t going to be whole numbers, so I took a prorated version each time that assumed the chances go linearly up between each whole number (i.e. if there was an SRS of 4.5, I assumed the championship chances were 50% of the way between the 4 SRS and 5 SRS values). [That’s likely not exactly right, since the odds are very likely not exactly linear between each whole number, but I don’t think it’d change the data very much]. Then, for each player, I totaled the championship odds for all their seasons.

The idea here is that I think most superstar players’ teams would have virtually zero chance of winning a title without them. Indeed, for Steph, even in the Durant years, they had a roughly -1.74 SRS in games without Curry (or +0.43 if you added those playoff games without Steph to the mix)—which implies a vanishingly low chance of a title. And the Lakers’ SRS in games Magic missed was not very good either (don’t have the exact number on hand, but I don’t think it was good overall). And so, if we assume that the players’ teams had essentially no chance of a title without them (maybe not a perfect assumption with the amount of talent these two have had at certain times, but not unreasonable IMO given how their teams did without them), then the championship chances implied from the team’s SRS when they played is a pretty good indicator of the amount by which they actually increased their team’s chances of a title in a given year.

Of course, this method essentially assumes that the playoffs are a random walk based on RS SRS, which may not really be right, but I think that’s a fair bit more right than people want to admit—at least when it comes to teams led by guys like these (I’d say teams without a superstar but with high SRS tend to have lower chances than their SRS might suggest). Of course, I’m sure people will respond to this and just say fine but Curry dips in the playoffs so this overestimates him, but I’d remind people that Steph’s playoff impact numbers are actually *really* good, and that Magic Johnson had some really serious playoff underperformances (the 1983 and 1984 Finals being examples where he underperformed, including at very key moments), so I think we need to keep playoff performance in perspective.

Anyways, I think there’s room to disagree with the assumptions underlying this analysis, but I wanted to provide it, because I think it encapsulates an alternative way of thinking about CORP analysis that I tend to favor (which is to look at how much a player increased their actual team’s chances to win a title, rather than thinking about how they’d increase a hypothetical random team’s chances).

Data/Results

To start with, here’s the SRS in games they played:

Warriors’s RS SRS in games Curry played

2012-2013: 1.38
2013-2014: 5.55
2014-2015: 10.51
2015-2016: 10.92
2016-2017: 11.68
2017-2018: 10.03
2018-2019: 8.40
2020-2021: 2.97
2021-2022: 7.36
2022-2023: 3.06

Lakers RS SRS in games Magic played

1979-1980: 5.64
1980-1981: 4.92
1981-1982: 4.94
1982-1983: 5.56
1983-1984: 3.85
1984-1985: 6.99
1985-1986: 7.13
1986-1987: 8.43
1987-1988: 6.23
1988-1989: 6.87
1989-1990: 7.37
1990-1991: 6.77

And now here’s the implied championship chances each year based on those:

Warriors Title Chances based on SRS with Steph

2012-2013: 0.5%
2013-2014: 19.6%
2014-2015: 77.3%
2015-2016: 81.4%
2016-2017: 85.7%
2017-2018: 72.4%
2018-2019: 56.5%
2020-2021: 3.6%
2021-2022: 41.5%
2022-2023: 4.1%
Total Implied Increase in Expected Titles by Steph: 4.426

Lakers Title Chances based on SRS with Magic

1979-1980: 20.1%
1980-1981: 15.8%
1981-1982: 15.9%
1982-1983: 19.7%
1983-1984: 9.0%
1984-1985: 35.2%
1985-1986: 37.5%
1986-1987: 56.8%
1987-1988: 25.3%
1988-1989: 33.6%
1989-1990: 41.6%
1990-1991: 32.3%
Total Implied Increase in Expected Titles by Magic: 3.428

Both of these players look incredible by this measure. I don’t think there’s almost any players in history that would look better than either of them. But Steph is ahead here by about 1 expected title increase, so it’s analysis that goes in his favor here.

Not sure we should latch on too much to the exact values to be honest, but I think this analysis goes to the point I’ve been trying to make—which is that Steph made the Warriors *so good* for several years that the value he was bringing to the table in those years in a CORP-style analysis (at least doing CORP analysis based on what players actually did on their actual teams) was IMO quite enormous, such that it’s actually difficult for other players to reach his value, even if they had more prime years leading good teams.

EDIT: I’ll note I imagine the f4p-style take on this would be that it’s a bad thing to have underperformed the odds and a good thing to have overperformed it, and therefore that somehow Magic looks better here. That’s a take one could have, I suppose, but I think it just puts a lot of weight on randomness (for instance, if Durant doesn’t get injured in 2019, then Curry very likely overperforms the expectations rather than underperforming it) as opposed to how good a player actually was, and I think would really just give Magic a lot of credit for the Western Conference being a cakewalk in the vast majority of that era (which we’d certainly expect to make a team do better than expected just based on SRS, but is not something I think is something we should tally in favor of a player).

[AEnigma]

Please note that, in the 2016-2017 season, the Spurs had an *incredible* -10.4 rDRTG in minutes where Kawhi was off the court (which was actually substantially better than their rDRTG in minutes Kawhi was on the court). While losing Kawhi was certainly a blow, I don’t think there’s a particularly good argument that missing Kawhi really made them notably worse defensively. Nor is there really a great argument that they weren’t still a good team without Kawhi—they had a +6.9 net rating with Kawhi off the court that year (and it was actually +7.98 if we take out low leverage situations, according to pbpstats).

and the toronto raptors were a good team without kawhi who would do things like get swept by the 2018 cavs when it was the playoffs. the best evidence that kawhi was pretty valuable in that series is:

with kawhi - 2017 wcf spurs:
+40 points per 48 minutes

without kawhi - 2017 wcf spurs:
-25 points per 48 minutes (which is over 3.5 games so it was consistent)

it literally went from the spurs waxing the warriors with kawhi to a 2001 lakers/spurs-level bludgeoning once kawhi was off. and it literally flipped to a totally uncompetitive series the second kawhi was off. clearly the spurs lost heart after the injury so trying to say we should act like the warriors actually destroyed a great defense when they were very much not destroying that defense with kawhi playing just makes no sense.

Hey, if he wants to portray the Durant Warriors as a +13 team without Steph because of how they slaughtered those 3 SRS Spurs in 2018, I say we let him.

I guess this is what happens when motivated reasoning goes too far. In one thread, you can be the guy busy exalting the necessity of having an MVP level player to be taken seriously in the postseason, and in another, we can be talking about how a team that was -10 without Kawhi across three postseasons was actually some super roster comfortably above the Mark Aguirre and Walter Davis and George Gervin and Clyde Drexler dregs of the 1980s western conference. The Steph-less Warriors are a paltry +0.5 SRS, but also, we must be very impressed by a Spurs team they thrashed by 10 points a game.

[lessthanjake]

Please note that, in the 2016-2017 season, the Spurs had an *incredible* -10.4 rDRTG in minutes where Kawhi was off the court (which was actually substantially better than their rDRTG in minutes Kawhi was on the court). While losing Kawhi was certainly a blow, I don’t think there’s a particularly good argument that missing Kawhi really made them notably worse defensively. Nor is there really a great argument that they weren’t still a good team without Kawhi—they had a +6.9 net rating with Kawhi off the court that year (and it was actually +7.98 if we take out low leverage situations, according to pbpstats).

and the toronto raptors were a good team without kawhi who would do things like get swept by the 2018 cavs when it was the playoffs. the best evidence that kawhi was pretty valuable in that series is:

with kawhi - 2017 wcf spurs:
+40 points per 48 minutes

without kawhi - 2017 wcf spurs:
-25 points per 48 minutes (which is over 3.5 games so it was consistent)

it literally went from the spurs waxing the warriors with kawhi to a 2001 lakers/spurs-level bludgeoning once kawhi was off. and it literally flipped to a totally uncompetitive series the second kawhi was off. clearly the spurs lost heart after the injury so trying to say we should act like the warriors actually destroyed a great defense when they were very much not destroying that defense with kawhi playing just makes no sense.

Hey, if he wants to portray the Durant Warriors as a +13 team without Steph because of how they slaughtered those 3 SRS Spurs in 2018, I say we let him.

I guess this is what happens when motivated reasoning goes too far. In one thread, you can be the guy busy exalting the necessity of having an MVP level player to be taken seriously in the postseason, and in another, we can be talking about how a team that was -10 without Kawhi across three postseasons was actually some super roster comfortably above the Mark Aguirre and Walter Davis and George Gervin and Clyde Drexler dregs of the 1980s western conference. The Steph-less Warriors are a paltry +0.5 SRS, but also, we must be very impressed by a Spurs team they thrashed by 10 points a game.

I’m not a huge fan of the tone of this post, and I think you’re looking for inconsistency to try to mock where there really is none. I don’t think anyone thinks the 2016-2017 Spurs had a good chance of winning a title without Kawhi (in large part because, yes, that meant they no longer had an MVP-level player). But that’s not mutually exclusive with the Kawhi-less Spurs being a “good” team by the criteria I set forth (i.e. a 4+ SRS team). So I don’t see any inconsistency whatsoever. A team can be good and not have all that good a chance to actually win the title. Indeed, there’s several of those teams each season!

[ijspeelman]

I've been trying to watch a lot of Magic Johnson film to inform my decision for my internal Steph v Magic debate.

I talked a bit about his defense earlier and mainly want to comment more on that. I still feel Magic leaves a lot to be desired for any one-on-one defense. He's slow footed against guards on the perimeter and that also translates over to the post against big men.

Spoiler:

Watch on YouTube

Watch on YouTube

Watch on YouTube

Watch on YouTube

But, I think I downplayed his help defense a bit. He still does not possess enough jump for me to love him here, but he definitely brings some positive value. I love his work in the passing lanes and I think he is a fairly smart rotator to help at the rim or in the lane.

Spoiler:

Watch on YouTube

Watch on YouTube

Watch on YouTube

Watch on YouTube

Watch on YouTube

Watch on YouTube

He does have some hiccups as you'll see in the below play where he leaves his man free under the rim on an un-needed rotation? Basket doesn't go in though.

Spoiler:

Watch on YouTube

[LukaTheGOAT]

Ben also has a metric called PlayVal that attempts to measure the overall value of the shots created in one's era, because as mentioned, not all creation is equal.

Magic Johnson had a 3-year Ps PlayVal above 1.5, 10x.

Bird peaked at 1.5 PlayVal one time in a 3-year stretch. Steph peaked at a 1.3 PlayVal.

Magic looks like an obvious outlier.

Not relevant to this thread per-se, but how do James/Paul/Nash grade out at this threshold?

As of Feb. 29, 2021

Here are the players with the most stretches above +1.5, and their regular seasons above +2 listed earlier:

3-year playoff stretches above +1.5 PlayVal

Magic 10x (7 regular seasons above +2)
Stockton 8x (5x)
LeBron 7x (3x)
Nash 5x (7x)
Paul 3x (7x)
That’s playmaking royalty. But then there are new names that we didn’t see in the regular season list: Jordan (three qualifying playoff stretches over +1.5), Westbrook (3x), Iverson (2x), Wall (2x), Kevin Johnson (2x), Jokic (2x) and even Isiah Thomas.

[LukaTheGOAT]

PlayVal: Playmaking value, an estimate of a player’s points per 100 impact from playmaking only.

Are you aware of exactly what PlayVal actually is? Like, what goes into the measure, what the formula is made to approximate, etc?

I’m generally pretty low on almost all the Backpicks-created box stats, to be honest. They seem pretty dubious to me, since they’re basically just Ben Taylor fitting a formula to fit his own hand-counted subjective assessments from some film (and likely peeking at the output while he did so, to make sure that output of the formula actually had people on top that he thought should be on top). But I’m not aware of the specifics of what PlayVal actually even is.

It is a proprietary stat, so not much. This version of PlayVal mentioned in the episode is a bit outdated, but might give you a bit more insight https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/23-top-playmakers-in-nba-history/id1428290303?i=1000446004187

[Doctor MJ]

Please note that, in the 2016-2017 season, the Spurs had an *incredible* -10.4 rDRTG in minutes where Kawhi was off the court (which was actually substantially better than their rDRTG in minutes Kawhi was on the court). While losing Kawhi was certainly a blow, I don’t think there’s a particularly good argument that missing Kawhi really made them notably worse defensively. Nor is there really a great argument that they weren’t still a good team without Kawhi—they had a +6.9 net rating with Kawhi off the court that year (and it was actually +7.98 if we take out low leverage situations, according to pbpstats).

and the toronto raptors were a good team without kawhi who would do things like get swept by the 2018 cavs when it was the playoffs. the best evidence that kawhi was pretty valuable in that series is:

with kawhi - 2017 wcf spurs:
+40 points per 48 minutes

without kawhi - 2017 wcf spurs:
-25 points per 48 minutes (which is over 3.5 games so it was consistent)

it literally went from the spurs waxing the warriors with kawhi to a 2001 lakers/spurs-level bludgeoning once kawhi was off. and it literally flipped to a totally uncompetitive series the second kawhi was off. clearly the spurs lost heart after the injury so trying to say we should act like the warriors actually destroyed a great defense when they were very much not destroying that defense with kawhi playing just makes no sense.

Hey, if he wants to portray the Durant Warriors as a +13 team without Steph because of how they slaughtered those 3 SRS Spurs in 2018, I say we let him.

I guess this is what happens when motivated reasoning goes too far. In one thread, you can be the guy busy exalting the necessity of having an MVP level player to be taken seriously in the postseason, and in another, we can be talking about how a team that was -10 without Kawhi across three postseasons was actually some super roster comfortably above the Mark Aguirre and Walter Davis and George Gervin and Clyde Drexler dregs of the 1980s western conference. The Steph-less Warriors are a paltry +0.5 SRS, but also, we must be very impressed by a Spurs team they thrashed by 10 points a game.

Guys, let's tread carefully. Easy to get on each other's nerves more and more with a project like this. Please refrain from the little jabs gents.

Doc

[Doctor MJ]

I’m generally pretty low on almost all the Backpicks-created box stats, to be honest. They seem pretty dubious to me, since they’re basically just Ben Taylor fitting a formula to fit his own hand-counted subjective assessments from some film (and likely peeking at the output while he did so, to make sure that output of the formula actually had people on top that he thought should be on top). But I’m not aware of the specifics of what PlayVal actually even is.

Hmm. What's given you the impression is creating statistics to be released to others specifically for the purpose of convincing others to his pet beliefs?

fwiw, I think the stat-as-drunken-man's-lamppost is always a danger for a stat-maker, but when you're talking about someone who is primarily using this stuff to inform his analysis rather than to make an argument, he'd be really screwing himself over if he was falling prey to this.

[f4p]

so for all the people picking steph, i just want to go back to playoff resiliency again. i looked at the last project's Top 33 (just stopped at pippen due to time and less interest in the players below him) plus newer guys like jokic, giannis, embiid and then put in tatum, butler. i would've put in doncic but i only did ages 22-35 and doncic only had one season (though he would have led the list below).

all the data is from ages 22 to 35 and it looks at the BBRef stats PER, WS48, BPM, and TS% and compares each year to the regular season. the resilience at the end is just an average of the normalized increase/decrease for each value. +1 is a top 95% value and -1 is a bottom 6.5% value (couldn't use 5% because the lower values were so low that they were making the average season as slightly "resilient"). for playoff runs shorter than 10 games, the final value was multiplied by "Games/10" so a 5 game, 1 round playoffs would get weighed at 50%. the 2nd table is all 416 playoff runs for these guys. the 1st table is their career average (each playoff run weighed equally to essentially average your resiliency from year to year).

Code: Select all

Rank   Player Name             Career Avg       
1      Kawhi Leonard           0.4561           
2      Hakeem Olajuwon         0.3315           
3      George Mikan            0.3246           
4      Lebron James            0.2747           
5      Bill Russell            0.2548           
6      Walt Frazier            0.2318           
7      Jerry West              0.2142           
8      Michael Jordan          0.2081           
9      Tim Duncan              0.166             
10     Magic Johnson           0.0968           
11     Scottie Pippen          0.0963           
12     Oscar Robertson         0.0865           
13     Kobe Bryant             0.0856           
14     Charles Barkley         0.0779           
15     Kareem Abdul-Jabbar     0.0554           
16     Dirk Nowitzki           0.0534           
17     Jayson Tatum            0.0247           
18     Nikola Jokic            0.0205           
19     Shaquille O'neal        0.0179           
20     Moses Malone            0.0093           
21     Dwyane Wade             -0.0021           
22     Chris Paul              -0.0156           
23     Julius Erving           -0.0231           
24     Jimmy Butler            -0.0341           
25     Wilt Chamberlain        -0.0851           
26     Kevin Garnett           -0.1115           
27     Larry Bird              -0.1327           
28     Kevin Durant            -0.1435           
29     Patrick Ewing           -0.1446           
30     David Robinson          -0.1552           
31     Steve Nash              -0.1582           
32     Stephen Curry           -0.1613           
33     Bob Pettit              -0.1624           
34     John Stockton           -0.182           
35     Giannis Antetokounmpo   -0.1975           
36     James Harden            -0.1982           
37     Karl Malone             -0.2959           
38     Joel Embiid             -0.533           


Code: Select all

Rank   Player Name             Season    Age   PER     TS%     WS/48    BPM     Resilience
1      George Mikan            1953-54   29    4.6     7.7     0.133            1.3491   
2      Tim Duncan              2005-06   29    7.3     10.2    0.065    3.6     1.2829   
3      Jerry West              1960-61   22    5.3     8.5     0.09             1.2777   
4      Kareem Abdul-Jabbar     1969-70   22    6.9     5.6     0.099            1.2741   
5      Hakeem Olajuwon         1996-97   34    4.9     7       0.075    5.7     1.2296   
6      Hakeem Olajuwon         1986-87   24    4.7     10.5    0.062    4       1.1957   
7      Dirk Nowitzki           2008-09   30    5.3     7.1     0.067    3.5     1.0901   
8      Jimmy Butler            2021-22   32    6.3     1.2     0.063    5.5     1.0544   
9      Lebron James            2008-09   24    5.7     2.7     0.081    4.3     1.0482   
10     Kawhi Leonard           2016-17   25    3.9     6.2     0.05     4.8     1.0369   
11     Lebron James            2019-20   35    4.7     7       0.065    2.3     0.9788   
12     Hakeem Olajuwon         1987-88   25    15.6    8.6     0.203    10.1    0.9464   
13     Kawhi Leonard           2020-21   29    4.6     5.7     0.039    3.4     0.9338   
14     Kareem Abdul-Jabbar     1976-77   29    4.6     3.8     0.049    2.8     0.8582   
15     Scottie Pippen          1989-90   24    2.4     4.1     0.062    3.6     0.8555   
16     Julius Erving           1975-76   25    3.3     4.1     0.059    3       0.8493   
17     Bill Russell            1964-65   30    1.4     6.8     0.052            0.8415   
18     Bill Russell            1965-66   31    2.9     6.6     0.026            0.8314   
19     Dirk Nowitzki           2009-10   31    5.4     6.5     0.097    6.5     0.8056   
20     George Mikan            1948-49   24            4.3                      0.8001   
21     Charles Barkley         1993-94   30    5       1.2     0.023    3.6     0.7728   
22     Lebron James            2017-18   33    3.6     -0.2    0.048    4       0.7544   
23     Michael Jordan          1994-95   31    2.7     6.4     -0.017   3.8     0.7539   
24     Lebron James            2016-17   32    3.1     3       0.054    2.2     0.7401   
25     Stephen Curry           2016-17   28    2.5     3.5     0.043    2.8     0.7399   
26     Bill Russell            1961-62   27    3.2     3       0.04             0.7373   
27     Kareem Abdul-Jabbar     1973-74   26    3.9     1.9     0.047    2.4     0.7334   
28     Larry Bird              1983-84   27    2.1     5.5     0.021    2.7     0.7257   
29     Kobe Bryant             2009-10   31    2.8     2.2     0.03     2.9     0.6826   
30     Dwyane Wade             2015-16   34    2       1.5     0.043    3       0.6639   
31     Bill Russell            1962-63   28    2.3     4.4     0.012            0.65     
32     Nikola Jokic            2018-19   23    3.3     0.7     0.037    2.5     0.6474   
33     Julius Erving           1976-77   26    2       2.4     0.027    2.9     0.6462   
34     Oscar Robertson         1972-73   34    3.8     6.1     0.088            0.6455   
35     Larry Bird              1980-81   24    1.9     0.4     0.038    3.4     0.6353   
36     Kobe Bryant             2008-09   30    2.4     0.3     0.032    3.2     0.6259   
37     Tim Duncan              1998-99   22    1.9     3.2     0.03     2.1     0.6253   
38     Julius Erving           1978-79   28    2       3       0.038    2.8     0.6194   
39     Kareem Abdul-Jabbar     1983-84   36    2.7     -1.6    0.043    3.3     0.6106   
40     Kawhi Leonard           2018-19   27    2.1     1.3     0.025    2.9     0.6088   
41     Chris Paul              2010-11   25    5.2     9.2     0.01     3.4     0.6012   
42     Michael Jordan          1997-98   34    2.9     1.2     0.027    2.1     0.5951   
43     Walt Frazier            1973-74   28    2.6     2.9     0.021    1.6     0.5912   
44     Bill Russell            1960-61   26    3.9     0.3     0.02             0.5896   
45     Jerry West              1968-69   30    2.9     -1.5    0.058            0.5818   
46     James Harden            2020-21   31    -0.6    5.5     0.055    1.9     0.5791   
47     Tim Duncan              2002-03   26    1.5     1.3     0.031    2.6     0.5787   
48     Kevin Durant            2018-19   30    2.6     3       0.002    2.1     0.5772   
49     Stephen Curry           2021-22   33    3       0.5     0.03     1.9     0.5712   
50     Bill Russell            1959-60   25    1.9     0.8     0.038            0.5561   
51     Jerry West              1967-68   29    1.9     0.6     0.037            0.5438   
52     Hakeem Olajuwon         1985-86   23    1.4     0.6     0.045    1.9     0.5427   
53     Lebron James            2015-16   31    2.5     -0.3    0.032    2       0.534     
54     Kobe Bryant             2000-01   22    0.5     0.3     0.064    1.7     0.5294   
55     Magic Johnson           1985-86   26    1.6     -1.1    0.041    2.6     0.529     
56     Dirk Nowitzki           2003-04   25    5       0       0.097    5.7     0.5288   
57     Tim Duncan              2001-02   25    4.8     -2.6    -0.01    3.8     0.5083   
58     Scottie Pippen          1988-89   23    -0.5    2       0.024    2.7     0.502     
59     Bob Pettit              1962-63   30    1.1     1.8     0.022            0.4983   
60     Charles Barkley         1985-86   22    1.4     1.2     0.013    2.1     0.4927   
61     Kobe Bryant             2011-12   33    2.5     -0.2    0.011    2.1     0.4894   
62     Jerry West              1962-63   24    1.2     2.5     0.008            0.487     
63     Moses Malone            1982-83   27    0.6     0.9     0.012    2.7     0.4829   
64     Luka Doncic             2021-22   22    3.5     0.6     0.005    1.1     0.4812   
65     Walt Frazier            1974-75   29    7.4     13.5    0.09     5.3     0.471     
66     Lebron James            2013-14   29    1.7     1.9     0.005    1.5     0.4704   
67     Jimmy Butler            2018-19   29    0.9     -0.7    0.022    2.5     0.456     
68     Walt Frazier            1970-71   25    0.7     1.6     0.019            0.4555   
69     Shaquille O'neal        1995-96   23    1       0.5     -0.015   3.1     0.4429   
70     Shaquille O'neal        1997-98   25    2.2     1.7     -0.024   2       0.4427   
71     Hakeem Olajuwon         1993-94   31    2.4     0.3     -0.002   1.7     0.4426   
72     Chris Paul              2015-16   30    7       0       0.069    6.1     0.4396   
73     Dwyane Wade             2009-10   28    1.4     8.8     0.005    4.3     0.4325   
74     Kevin Durant            2011-12   23    1.3     2.2     0.001    1.1     0.427     
75     Michael Jordan          1990-91   27    0.4     -0.5    0.012    2.6     0.4211   
76     Kareem Abdul-Jabbar     1979-80   32    2.6     -2.8    0.026    1.7     0.4206   
77     Tim Duncan              2013-14   37    -0.2    3.3     0.04     -0.2    0.4156   
78     Kawhi Leonard           2015-16   24    2.6     -1.9    -0.006   2.4     0.4123   
79     Magic Johnson           1981-82   22    -0.4    2.4     0.024    1       0.4117   
80     John Stockton           1986-87   24    -0.8    14.5    0.026    0.8     0.3948   
81     Kevin Durant            2016-17   28    -0.1    3.2     0.002    1       0.3947   
82     Larry Bird              1985-86   29    -1.7    3.5     0.019    1.2     0.3907   
83     Scottie Pippen          1990-91   25    1.4     0.3     0.018    0.7     0.3866   
84     Moses Malone            1988-89   33    2.9     2.6     0.03     3.8     0.3788   
85     Wilt Chamberlain        1964-65   28    -1.5    3.9     0.003            0.373     
86     Tim Duncan              2011-12   35    0.4     -0.2    0.01     1.7     0.3687   
87     Dwyane Wade             2004-05   23    1.2     0       0.003    1.3     0.3672   
88     Walt Frazier            1972-73   27    0       2.5     -0.007           0.3647   
89     Chris Paul              2007-08   22    2.4     -1.1    0.005    0.9     0.3632   
90     Kevin Durant            2010-11   22    0.5     -0.7    0.028    1       0.3585   
91     Michael Jordan          1989-90   26    0.5     -1.4    -0.001   2.5     0.3555   
92     Jerry West              1961-62   23    -0.7    2       0.008            0.353     
93     Scottie Pippen          1999-00   34    1.1     -1.1    0.003    1.7     0.3515   
94     Dwyane Wade             2005-06   24    -0.7    1.6     0.001    1.6     0.3505   
95     Charles Barkley         1998-99   35    5.9     3.3     0.023    3.4     0.3479   
96     Tim Duncan              2000-01   24    1.6     -0.5    -0.027   2.2     0.3478   
97     Shaquille O'neal        1996-97   24    1.9     -0.4    0.018    0.7     0.3468   
98     Kevin Garnett           2000-01   24    1       3.8     0.079    4.1     0.3437   
99     Jimmy Butler            2019-20   30    0.2     3.1     -0.012   0.5     0.3367   
100    Karl Malone             1993-94   30    1.7     -1.9    0.016    0.9     0.3341   
101    Steve Nash              2009-10   35    0.8     1.9     -0.003   0.3     0.3337   
102    Magic Johnson           1987-88   28    -0.2    1.9     -0.001   0.9     0.3329   
103    Walt Frazier            1971-72   26    -0.1    1       0.004            0.3301   
104    Dwyane Wade             2010-11   29    0.7     -1.1    -0.002   1.8     0.3273   
105    Oscar Robertson         1970-71   32    1.5     -3      0.027            0.3258   
106    Kevin Durant            2020-21   32    0.5     -3.6    0.008    2.8     0.3245   
107    Kawhi Leonard           2019-20   28    0.9     0.4     0.002    0.5     0.3138   
108    Dirk Nowitzki           2010-11   32    1.8     -0.3    -0.003   0.4     0.3109   
109    Oscar Robertson         1973-74   35    0.9     0.1     -0.007   0.9     0.306     
110    Kareem Abdul-Jabbar     1978-79   31    1       2.4     0.003    0.4     0.3049   
111    Chris Paul              2014-15   29    -0.3    3.1     -0.022   0.7     0.3015   
112    Chris Paul              2012-13   27    2.8     3.9     -0.02    0.9     0.2897   
113    Kobe Bryant             2007-08   29    0.8     0.1     -0.03    1.6     0.2866   
114    Charles Barkley         1994-95   31    1.4     0.8     -0.008   -0.1    0.2852   
115    Giannis Antetokounmpo   2017-18   23    -0.7    2.2     0.032    0.9     0.2843   
116    Wilt Chamberlain        1963-64   27    -0.3    0.6     -0.002           0.2798   
117    Karl Malone             1991-92   28    -0.4    1.9     -0.017   0.8     0.2763   
118    Shaquille O'neal        2003-04   31    0.4     -1.3    0.01     0.7     0.2685   
119    Shaquille O'neal        2002-03   30    1.1     -3.2    -0.01    1.9     0.2606   
120    John Stockton           1990-91   28    -1.6    4       -0.009   0.4     0.2597   
121    Jerry West              1965-66   27    0.1     0.8     -0.019           0.2537   
122    Patrick Ewing           1992-93   30    0.8     -1.1    -0.015   1.1     0.2536   
123    Moses Malone            1979-80   24    0.8     1.7     -0.024   1.5     0.2443   
124    Kawhi Leonard           2022-23   31    6       4.7     0.033    7.7     0.244     
125    Magic Johnson           1986-87   27    -0.8    0.5     0.002    0.5     0.2421   
126    Hakeem Olajuwon         1992-93   30    -0.6    -0.9    -0.013   1.6     0.2354   
127    Michael Jordan          1992-93   29    0.4     -1.1    0        0.4     0.2302   
128    David Robinson          1990-91   25    -1.3    14.5    -0.03    0       0.2288   
129    Dirk Nowitzki           2005-06   27    -1.3    0.7     -0.012   1.1     0.2286   
130    Jayson Tatum            2020-21   22    2.8     0.1     -0.023   2.6     0.2283   
131    Dwyane Wade             2003-04   22    0.1     -0.3    0.001    0.1     0.2271   
132    Magic Johnson           1983-84   24    0.2     -2.7    0.007    1       0.2243   
133    Dirk Nowitzki           2007-08   29    1.7     0.3     -0.027   3       0.2149   
134    Bob Pettit              1959-60   27    -0.4    0.5     -0.019           0.2109   
135    George Mikan            1951-52   27    1       1.8     -0.062           0.2029   
136    Tim Duncan              2008-09   32    2.9     0.5     -0.02    1.3     0.1997   
137    Wilt Chamberlain        1959-60   23    -1.1    0.5     -0.004           0.1993   
138    Chris Paul              2016-17   31    1.6     -2.2    -0.018   1.7     0.1979   
139    Michael Jordan          1985-86   22    2.6     5.1     0.001    2.2     0.1953   
140    John Stockton           1985-86   23    0.2     7.8     0.008    -0.6    0.19     
141    Jimmy Butler            2014-15   25    -0.5    -2.1    -0.011   1.2     0.1796   
142    Steve Nash              2004-05   30    1.4     -0.2    -0.039   0       0.1781   
143    Kawhi Leonard           2013-14   22    -0.7    0.4     -0.002   -0.4    0.1756   
144    Kevin Garnett           1998-99   22    1.7     -0.5    -0.011   2.8     0.1727   
145    Nikola Jokic            2019-20   24    -0.1    0.9     -0.03    0       0.1718   
146    Charles Barkley         1995-96   32    2.7     -2.3    0.006    2.3     0.1712   
147    James Harden            2019-20   30    -1.6    1       -0.001   -0.2    0.1712   
148    David Robinson          2000-01   35    0.8     -2.1    -0.039   1.3     0.1709   
149    Julius Erving           1973-74   23    -1.7    0.8     0.014    -0.7    0.1671   
150    John Stockton           1996-97   34    0.6     -2.9    -0.025   1.2     0.1653   
151    Tim Duncan              2006-07   30    1.3     -2.3    -0.016   -0.1    0.1568   
152    Walt Frazier            1968-69   23    1.1     -3.5    -0.009           0.156     
153    John Stockton           1988-89   26    3       -2.3    -0.006   3.7     0.1498   
154    Hakeem Olajuwon         1990-91   28    -1.1    8       0.001    0.8     0.1486   
155    Oscar Robertson         1961-62   23    -0.6    3.2     -0.004           0.1483   
156    George Mikan            1949-50   25            -0.6                     0.147     
157    Kevin Durant            2017-18   29    -0.9    -3.4    0.022    0.3     0.1467   
158    Hakeem Olajuwon         1994-95   32    0.7     -0.3    -0.038   0       0.1465   
159    Kareem Abdul-Jabbar     1982-83   35    -0.8    -1.1    -0.033   1.1     0.1364   
160    Jerry West              1963-64   25    0.9     0.2     -0.022           0.1319   
161    Dirk Nowitzki           2001-02   23    0.7     -2.2    -0.029   0.9     0.1309   
162    David Robinson          1998-99   33    -1.6    -0.1    -0.018   0.4     0.1287   
163    Joel Embiid             2019-20   25    0.8     1       -0.027   1.5     0.1272   
164    Julius Erving           1977-78   27    -0.5    -2.2    -0.008   0.2     0.1204   
165    Dirk Nowitzki           2000-01   22    -0.5    -2.8    -0.018   0.9     0.1191   
166    Patrick Ewing           1996-97   34    -0.3    -0.1    -0.035   0.1     0.1108   
167    Chris Paul              2020-21   35    -0.7    -1.5    -0.023   0.4     0.1089   
168    Bill Russell            1967-68   33    -0.3    -0.3    -0.042           0.102     
169    Oscar Robertson         1962-63   24    0.1     -1.4    -0.035           0.1008   
170    Shaquille O'neal        2007-08   35    1.8     -10.3   0.024    2.8     0.1       
171    Kevin Garnett           2011-12   35    0.1     -0.9    -0.029   -0.4    0.0978   
172    Kareem Abdul-Jabbar     1984-85   37    -0.8    -2.6    -0.01    0.3     0.095     
173    Scottie Pippen          1991-92   26    -1.4    -1.1    -0.024   0.5     0.095     
174    George Mikan            1955-56   31    0.4     -1.3    0.016            0.0896   
175    Shaquille O'neal        2000-01   28    -1.5    -1      0.015    -1.2    0.0867   
176    Michael Jordan          1988-89   25    -1.2    -1.2    -0.022   0.2     0.0866   
177    Jimmy Butler            2012-13   23    -0.8    0.1     -0.053   0.5     0.0866   
178    Hakeem Olajuwon         1988-89   26    -1.1    -0.3    -0.015   1.4     0.0862   
179    Jerry West              1972-73   34    -0.5    -2.1    -0.022           0.0792   
180    Lebron James            2006-07   22    -0.6    -3.6    -0.006   0       0.0618   
181    Charles Barkley         1988-89   25    -2.7    3.8     -0.037   0.9     0.0578   
182    Patrick Ewing           1995-96   33    -2.8    0.6     -0.039   0.8     0.0561   
183    Giannis Antetokounmpo   2019-20   25    -0.6    -0.3    -0.041   -0.3    0.056     
184    Julius Erving           1972-73   22    -2.8    2.4     -0.034           0.0512   
185    Dirk Nowitzki           2011-12   33    0.8     -0.4    -0.036   -0.5    0.0484   
186    Lebron James            2011-12   27    -0.4    -2.9    -0.014   -0.4    0.0479   
187    Giannis Antetokounmpo   2020-21   26    -1.6    -3.4    -0.02    0.9     0.0453   
188    Jayson Tatum            2022-23   24    -1.1    -2.2    -0.017   -0.2    0.0452   
189    Scottie Pippen          1997-98   32    -0.9    -3.3    -0.027   0.6     0.0424   
190    Oscar Robertson         1966-67   28    -2.6    3.4     -0.051           0.04     
191    Michael Jordan          1991-92   28    -0.5    -0.8    -0.058   0.2     0.0378   
192    Michael Jordan          1995-96   32    -2.7    -1.8    -0.011   0.2     0.0288   
193    Wilt Chamberlain        1960-61   24    -1.1    -2.7    -0.001           0.0269   
194    John Stockton           1987-88   25    -0.7    -2.7    -0.037   0.3     0.0263   
195    Magic Johnson           1984-85   25    -0.9    -3.8    -0.01    -0.1    0.0252   
196    Moses Malone            1978-79   23    5       -10.3   -0.034   1.7     0.0243   
197    Karl Malone             1999-00   36    -1.3    0.2     -0.055   -0.2    0.0181   
198    David Robinson          1999-00   34    1       -10.5   -0.018   2.6     0.0147   
199    Steve Nash              1997-98   23    0.9     -4.5    -0.056   1       0.0129   
200    Patrick Ewing           1994-95   32    -3      0.4     -0.006   -1.2    0.0128   
201    David Robinson          1989-90   24    -1.9    -1.6    -0.022   -0.3    0.0106   
202    Bob Pettit              1956-57   24    -3.2    1       -0.038           0.0028   
203    Kevin Garnett           2001-02   25    1.7     -2.2    -0.073   -0.5    0.0015   
204    Hakeem Olajuwon         1984-85   22    -1.4    -7.4    -0.008   1.7     0.0014   
205    Jerry West              1966-67   28    -4.6    0       -0.2             0         
206    Patrick Ewing           1987-88   25    -1.2    -3.2    -0.034   0.2     -0.0044   
207    Shaquille O'neal        2001-02   29    -1.4    -2.1    -0.026   -0.5    -0.007   
208    Stephen Curry           2012-13   24    -0.8    -3.1    -0.019   -0.7    -0.0085   
209    Patrick Ewing           1989-90   27    -0.4    -2      -0.05    -0.3    -0.0088   
210    Michael Jordan          1996-97   33    -0.7    -4.3    -0.048   1       -0.0109   
211    Charles Barkley         1990-91   27    -2.1    -0.5    -0.041   -0.4    -0.0136   
212    Michael Jordan          1986-87   23    -1.7    -3.3    -0.082   1.9     -0.0157   
213    Scottie Pippen          1998-99   33    1.9     -8.2    -0.035   0.2     -0.0173   
214    Wilt Chamberlain        1971-72   35    -0.7    -4.8    -0.014           -0.025   
215    John Stockton           1992-93   30    -2.7    -2.4    -0.032   0.1     -0.0259   
216    Kevin Garnett           2009-10   33    -1.8    -3.9    -0.023   0.3     -0.0261   
217    Jimmy Butler            2013-14   24    -2.1    -1.5    -0.035   -0.8    -0.0301   
218    Shaquille O'neal        1994-95   22    -2.5    0.7     -0.05    -0.6    -0.0307   
219    Moses Malone            1987-88   32    -2.9    -1.4    -0.038   -0.3    -0.0341   
220    Moses Malone            1986-87   31    -4.5    0.6     -0.073   0.4     -0.0355   
221    Chris Paul              2019-20   34    -2.4    -0.6    -0.052   -0.3    -0.039   
222    Jerry West              1964-65   26    1.7     -3.8    -0.072           -0.0392   
223    Oscar Robertson         1963-64   25    -2.9    -0.8    -0.033           -0.0423   
224    Lebron James            2009-10   25    -2.5    0.3     -0.057   -0.3    -0.043   
225    Larry Bird              1989-90   33    -1.2    -0.7    -0.051   -1.6    -0.043   
226    Nikola Jokic            2022-23   27    -0.3    -7      -0.003   -0.2    -0.0432   
227    Scottie Pippen          1995-96   30    -1.6    -7.8    -0.014   1.5     -0.0476   
228    Chris Paul              2013-14   28    -2.3    0.3     -0.075   0.2     -0.049   
229    James Harden            2014-15   25    -1.9    1.5     -0.063   -1.2    -0.0493   
230    Stephen Curry           2018-19   30    -1.8    -2.1    -0.014   -1.4    -0.0509   
231    Moses Malone            1981-82   26    -2.5    -8.7    -0.035   1.4     -0.0534   
232    Kobe Bryant             2006-07   28    -2      -1.9    -0.078   0.2     -0.0584   
233    Julius Erving           1981-82   31    -3.4    -1.2    -0.044   0.3     -0.061   
234    Bill Russell            1968-69   34    0.1     -1.9    -0.077           -0.0662   
235    Chris Paul              2018-19   33    -2.1    -0.3    -0.04    -1.4    -0.0713   
236    John Stockton           1997-98   35    -1.8    -5.9    -0.027   0.8     -0.0713   
237    Julius Erving           1984-85   34    -3.1    -2.9    -0.027   0.1     -0.0732   
238    Walt Frazier            1967-68   22    -1.8    -3.2    -0.062           -0.0736   
239    Kawhi Leonard           2014-15   23    -2.1    0.4     -0.061   -1.5    -0.0761   
240    Wilt Chamberlain        1961-62   25    -2.4    -2.8    -0.026           -0.0776   
241    Shaquille O'neal        1999-00   27    -0.1    -2.2    -0.059   -1.2    -0.0827   
242    Larry Bird              1979-80   23    -2.2    -2.7    -0.046   -0.2    -0.0855   
243    Karl Malone             1988-89   25    -2.3    -1.8    -0.093   -1.8    -0.0878   
244    Oscar Robertson         1965-66   27    -0.9    -3.3    -0.074           -0.0885   
245    Julius Erving           1979-80   29    -2.9    -1.5    -0.035   -0.7    -0.0892   
246    Bill Russell            1958-59   24    -1.9    -3.9    -0.024           -0.0901   
247    James Harden            2015-16   26    -3.5    -4.3    -0.098   2.2     -0.0938   
248    Charles Barkley         1992-93   29    -1      -4.4    -0.027   -0.9    -0.094   
249    Steve Nash              2001-02   27    -2      -1.7    -0.057   -0.8    -0.0955   
250    David Robinson          1992-93   27    -2.6    -4      -0.025   -0.3    -0.108   
251    Kevin Garnett           2002-03   26    -1.4    -1.4    -0.084   -1.4    -0.1145   
252    Dwyane Wade             2016-17   35    -3      -3.6    -0.027   -1.5    -0.1163   
253    Karl Malone             1994-95   31    -0.5    -4      -0.096   -0.9    -0.1185   
254    Lebron James            2014-15   30    -0.6    -9      -0.026   0.8     -0.119   
255    Scottie Pippen          1993-94   28    -0.4    -2.3    -0.045   -2.1    -0.1203   
256    Bill Russell            1963-64   29    -0.4    -5.5    -0.039           -0.1246   
257    Charles Barkley         1997-98   34    -5.4    -0.6    -0.063   -1.8    -0.1248   
258    Nikola Jokic            2021-22   26    0.3     -1.8    -0.094   -3      -0.1283   
259    Bill Russell            1957-58   23    -1.2    -4.5    -0.044           -0.1301   
260    Bill Russell            1956-57   22    -2.2    -5.2    -0.014           -0.1311   
261    Moses Malone            1983-84   28    -4.8    -1.5    -0.065   -0.9    -0.1317   
262    James Harden            2011-12   22    -0.2    -5.5    -0.046   -0.8    -0.1381   
263    George Mikan            1950-51   26            -3.2                     -0.1397   
264    Hakeem Olajuwon         1997-98   35    -2      -8.2    -0.082   1.1     -0.1399   
265    Kevin Garnett           1999-00   23    -3.1    -10.4   -0.07    1.1     -0.1483   
266    Shaquille O'neal        2006-07   34    -1.8    -3.8    -0.111   -1.7    -0.1509   
267    Scottie Pippen          1992-93   27    -2.3    -0.6    -0.049   -2      -0.1516   
268    Joel Embiid             2020-21   26    -4.1    -0.5    -0.069   0       -0.1523   
269    Moses Malone            1980-81   25    -2.7    -4.8    -0.028   -0.4    -0.1532   
270    Kobe Bryant             2001-02   23    -2.7    -3.3    -0.051   -0.3    -0.1563   
271    Steve Nash              2005-06   31    -2      -1.7    -0.059   -1.3    -0.1563   
272    Magic Johnson           1989-90   30    -1.6    -2.4    -0.048   -2.1    -0.166   
273    Patrick Ewing           1991-92   29    -2.9    -6.1    -0.031   0.3     -0.1686   
274    Kareem Abdul-Jabbar     1980-81   33    -3.1    -9.9    -0.071   -2.2    -0.1699   
275    Scottie Pippen          1994-95   29    -3.7    -1      -0.038   -1.6    -0.1729   
276    Wilt Chamberlain        1965-66   29    -2.3    -4.7    -0.082           -0.1746   
277    George Mikan            1952-53   28    -2.3    -2.6    -0.059           -0.1766   
278    Bob Pettit              1958-59   26    -5.3    -1.5    -0.058           -0.1805   
279    Michael Jordan          1987-88   24    -3.3    -0.5    -0.074   -0.8    -0.1808   
280    Dirk Nowitzki           2002-03   24    -2.4    1.2     -0.077   -2.2    -0.1811   
281    Joel Embiid             2018-19   24    -4.3    -3.4    -0.045   0.2     -0.183   
282    Giannis Antetokounmpo   2016-17   22    -4.2    -3.6    -0.072   -0.7    -0.1874   
283    Tim Duncan              2004-05   28    -2.1    -1.4    -0.054   -2.1    -0.1887   
284    Wilt Chamberlain        1968-69   32    -3.6    -4.6    -0.015           -0.1903   
285    James Harden            2021-22   32    -4.1    0.1     -0.04    -2.1    -0.1908   
286    David Robinson          1995-96   30    -0.3    -2      -0.076   -2.2    -0.1924   
287    Magic Johnson           1982-83   23    -2.4    -4.8    -0.051   -0.3    -0.1931   
288    Chris Paul              2017-18   32    -1.6    -3.9    -0.072   -0.5    -0.1947   
289    Jerry West              1969-70   31    -3.5    -2.2    -0.05            -0.1984   
290    Scottie Pippen          1996-97   31    -3.2    -2.8    -0.058   -0.6    -0.1989   
291    Jayson Tatum            2021-22   23    -4.2    -1.6    -0.059   -0.5    -0.1993   
292    James Harden            2012-13   23    -2.1    -5.2    -0.106   -0.3    -0.2012   
293    Hakeem Olajuwon         1989-90   27    -3.6    -6.3    -0.092   -1.9    -0.2015   
294    Tim Duncan              2003-04   27    -3      2.6     -0.066   -3.3    -0.2024   
295    Magic Johnson           1990-91   31    -2.4    -2.5    -0.058   -1.4    -0.2044   
296    Dwyane Wade             2008-09   27    -4.1    -0.9    -0.037   -3.3    -0.2049   
297    Larry Bird              1991-92   35    -4.6    -3.3    -0.09    -3.3    -0.2127   
298    Karl Malone             1987-88   24    -2.3    -3.1    -0.058   -1.4    -0.22     
299    Lebron James            2010-11   26    -3.6    -3.1    -0.046   -1      -0.221   
300    Charles Barkley         1986-87   23    -4.9    -1.1    -0.06    -4.1    -0.2225   
301    Kobe Bryant             2003-04   25    -2.7    -4.5    -0.065   -0.3    -0.2325   
302    Magic Johnson           1988-89   29    -3.5    -1.6    -0.067   -1.2    -0.2336   
303    Bob Pettit              1960-61   28    -2.9    -1.7    -0.078           -0.2374   
304    Oscar Robertson         1964-65   26    -5.9    -3.3    -0.112           -0.2409   
305    Tim Duncan              2012-13   36    -3.1    -3.1    -0.03    -2.4    -0.2465   
306    Moses Malone            1984-85   29    -4.5    -6.8    -0.033   0.6     -0.2487   
307    Stephen Curry           2014-15   26    -3.5    -3.1    -0.06    -1.1    -0.2591   
308    Karl Malone             1986-87   23    -4.6    -5.4    -0.064   -3.1    -0.2609   
309    Julius Erving           1985-86   35    -3.3    -2.9    -0.046   -2      -0.2646   
310    Wilt Chamberlain        1967-68   31    -2      -4.6    -0.064           -0.265   
311    Scottie Pippen          2000-01   35    -5.5    -5.2    -0.178   -4      -0.272   
312    Patrick Ewing           1993-94   31    -2.3    -5.6    -0.061   -0.8    -0.2729   
313    Charles Barkley         1996-97   33    -2.5    -2.4    -0.06    -2.4    -0.2742   
314    Larry Bird              1982-83   26    -3.8    -8.3    -0.091   -0.1    -0.2773   
315    Kareem Abdul-Jabbar     1981-82   34    -3.3    -5.8    -0.048   -0.6    -0.2774   
316    Bob Pettit              1964-65   32    -7.3    -4.8    -0.096           -0.2785   
317    Kobe Bryant             2010-11   32    -3.3    -1.2    -0.079   -1.8    -0.2806   
318    Bob Pettit              1957-58   25    -3.7    -2      -0.075           -0.2875   
319    Shaquille O'neal        1998-99   26    -1.8    -6.9    -0.079   -1.1    -0.2878   
320    Shaquille O'neal        2005-06   33    -4.5    -1.5    -0.061   -1.7    -0.2907   
321    Kareem Abdul-Jabbar     1977-78   30    -7.3    -6.3    -0.127   -5.6    -0.2978   
322    Tim Duncan              2007-08   31    -2.5    -5.8    -0.078   -0.3    -0.3006   
323    Kevin Garnett           2007-08   31    -2.3    -4.6    -0.066   -1.6    -0.3034   
324    Wilt Chamberlain        1966-67   30    -1.2    -9.1    -0.032           -0.3075   
325    Steve Nash              2007-08   33    -4.3    -10.3   -0.078   -1.8    -0.3127   
326    Dwyane Wade             2013-14   32    -3.5    -2.8    -0.063   -2      -0.3141   
327    Steve Nash              2006-07   32    -1.9    -7.7    -0.06    -0.7    -0.3163   
328    Karl Malone             1990-91   27    -3.4    -6      -0.071   -0.7    -0.3189   
329    Hakeem Olajuwon         1995-96   33    -5.5    -1.4    -0.087   -1.8    -0.324   
330    Jimmy Butler            2017-18   28    -6.8    -3.3    -0.1     -3.2    -0.3242   
331    Lebron James            2007-08   23    -4.8    -4.3    -0.055   -0.8    -0.3245   
332    Oscar Robertson         1971-72   33    -2.5    -7.8    -0.033           -0.3298   
333    Kevin Durant            2012-13   24    -2.3    -7.3    -0.081   0       -0.3304   
334    Joel Embiid             2017-18   23    -4.8    -5.4    -0.059   -1.5    -0.3328   
335    Stephen Curry           2013-14   25    -5.3    -1.1    -0.094   -3      -0.3364   
336    Karl Malone             1997-98   34    -3.7    -6.3    -0.075   -0.2    -0.3561   
337    Lebron James            2012-13   28    -3.5    -5.5    -0.062   -1.3    -0.357   
338    Patrick Ewing           1988-89   26    -3      -7.1    -0.043   -2.3    -0.3624   
339    Karl Malone             1995-96   32    -2.4    -7.7    -0.062   -1      -0.3626   
340    Julius Erving           1983-84   33    -7.7    -3.1    -0.109   -3.8    -0.3714   
341    Moses Malone            1990-91   35    -4.1    -16.9   -0.052   -1.4    -0.3719   
342    Wilt Chamberlain        1969-70   33    -4.5    -2.6    -0.081           -0.3819   
343    Steve Nash              2003-04   29    -5      -13     -0.07    -2.5    -0.385   
344    Kareem Abdul-Jabbar     1970-71   23    -3.7    -5.8    -0.055           -0.3874   
345    Stephen Curry           2022-23   34    -3.7    -6.8    -0.061   -1      -0.3875   
346    Dwyane Wade             2011-12   30    -4.3    -3.3    -0.062   -2.6    -0.4016   
347    Steve Nash              2002-03   28    -4.5    -1.1    -0.093   -2.4    -0.4045   
348    James Harden            2016-17   27    -4.4    -3      -0.088   -1.7    -0.406   
349    Tim Duncan              2010-11   34    -6.4    -3.7    -0.118   -3.3    -0.4182   
350    James Harden            2022-23   33    -3.1    -6.9    -0.077   -1.3    -0.4247   
351    James Harden            2013-14   24    -5.2    -9.9    -0.11    -1.4    -0.4254   
352    Larry Bird              1990-91   34    -3.9    -4      -0.062   -3      -0.4327   
353    Steve Nash              2000-01   26    -4.5    -5      -0.087   -1.1    -0.4364   
354    Kobe Bryant             2002-03   24    -4      -1.9    -0.079   -3.4    -0.4365   
355    John Stockton           1991-92   29    -3.4    -4.2    -0.093   -2.1    -0.4402   
356    Walt Frazier            1969-70   24    -4.6    -4.4    -0.073           -0.4402   
357    Karl Malone             2000-01   37    -5      -8.8    -0.169   -2.7    -0.4494   
358    Giannis Antetokounmpo   2022-23   28    -10.2   -8      -0.23    -6.5    -0.4503   
359    Bill Russell            1966-67   32    -3.3    -6.4    -0.088           -0.4538   
360    Charles Barkley         1989-90   26    -2.1    -7.2    -0.093   -1.8    -0.4637   
361    Patrick Ewing           1990-91   28    -13.4   -8.9    -0.204   -5.6    -0.4643   
362    Larry Bird              1981-82   25    -4.7    -8.3    -0.051   -1.2    -0.4685   
363    Jimmy Butler            2016-17   27    -5.7    -5.8    -0.12    -4      -0.4714   
364    Wilt Chamberlain        1970-71   34    -1.2    -7.9    -0.097           -0.4782   
365    Bob Pettit              1955-56   23    -5.9    -2      -0.128           -0.4798   
366    John Stockton           1994-95   32    -3.8    -10.5   -0.146   -4.7    -0.485   
367    John Stockton           1993-94   31    -2.6    -8.5    -0.07    -2.3    -0.5014   
368    Julius Erving           1974-75   24    -6.1    -5.8    -0.154   -5.9    -0.506   
369    Kobe Bryant             2005-06   27    -8.1    2.8     -0.137   -5.2    -0.5077   
370    Karl Malone             1989-90   26    -7.5    -12.1   -0.138   -2.9    -0.5258   
371    John Stockton           1999-00   37    -4      -4.3    -0.09    -3.1    -0.5258   
372    David Robinson          1997-98   32    -3.7    -8.5    -0.086   -2.2    -0.5265   
373    Larry Bird              1986-87   30    -4.6    -3.5    -0.091   -3.1    -0.5283   
374    James Harden            2018-19   29    -5.4    -4.9    -0.065   -2.9    -0.5303   
375    Giannis Antetokounmpo   2018-19   24    -4.4    -7.4    -0.073   -2      -0.5329   
376    Kevin Garnett           2010-11   34    -3.3    -9.6    -0.081   -2.3    -0.5377   
377    Nikola Jokic            2020-21   25    -1.7    -5.6    -0.12    -3.1    -0.5451   
378    David Robinson          1993-94   28    -8.7    -10.6   -0.191   -5.7    -0.5479   
379    Dwyane Wade             2012-13   31    -5.3    -7.3    -0.084   -1.3    -0.5533   
380    John Stockton           1989-90   27    -5.9    -12.5   -0.132   -5.4    -0.5689   
381    Jimmy Butler            2022-23   33    -3.6    -8.2    -0.088   -2.2    -0.5758   
382    Stephen Curry           2017-18   29    -5.9    -8.5    -0.085   -0.6    -0.5779   
383    Larry Bird              1984-85   28    -5.6    -4.9    -0.083   -2.8    -0.5793   
384    Julius Erving           1980-81   30    -4.5    -4.5    -0.114   -2.7    -0.5912   
385    Giannis Antetokounmpo   2021-22   27    -5.3    -8.1    -0.103   -0.8    -0.5973   
386    Kevin Garnett           2003-04   27    -4.4    -3.4    -0.109   -3.7    -0.6008   
387    Kevin Durant            2022-23   34    -4.8    -7.8    -0.08    -2.5    -0.6138   
388    Karl Malone             1992-93   29    -9.6    -8.4    -0.153   -6.1    -0.6316   
389    Tim Duncan              2009-10   33    -5      -3.3    -0.124   -3.3    -0.6373   
390    John Stockton           1998-99   36    -3.8    -8.4    -0.101   -2.5    -0.6439   
391    John Stockton           1995-96   33    -4.9    -9.8    -0.058   -2.9    -0.6534   
392    Dirk Nowitzki           2006-07   28    -6.7    -9.6    -0.15    -5.2    -0.6661   
393    James Harden            2017-18   28    -4.9    -7.1    -0.126   -1.8    -0.6693   
394    Karl Malone             1998-99   35    -4.4    -8.5    -0.117   -2.2    -0.696   
395    Bob Pettit              1963-64   31    -5.3    -5.2    -0.129           -0.71     
396    Larry Bird              1987-88   31    -7.6    -7      -0.092   -2.1    -0.7164   
397    David Robinson          1994-95   29    -6.5    -6.6    -0.097   -3.1    -0.731   
398    Patrick Ewing           1997-98   35    -12.6   -14.5   -0.201   -8.2    -0.7426   
399    Kevin Durant            2021-22   33    -12     -10.8   -0.224   -10.1   -0.7548   
400    Dwyane Wade             2006-07   25    -13.7   -10.4   -0.279   -8.8    -0.8033   
401    Julius Erving           1982-83   32    -7.1    -7      -0.104   -3.6    -0.8207   
402    Shaquille O'neal        2004-05   32    -8.9    -2.9    -0.122   -4.2    -0.8482   
403    Dirk Nowitzki           2004-05   26    -6      -7.3    -0.144   -3.6    -0.8855   
404    Jerry West              1971-72   33    -4.3    -10.1   -0.138           -0.8998   
405    Kevin Durant            2013-14   25    -7.2    -6.5    -0.15    -3.8    -0.94     
406    Karl Malone             1996-97   33    -6.7    -9.9    -0.141   -4.3    -1.0398   
407    Dirk Nowitzki           2013-14   35    -9.7    -12.3   -0.188   -6.3    -1.0506   
408    Jimmy Butler            2020-21   31    -16.8   -21.3   -0.319   -9.1    -1.0524   
409    Kareem Abdul-Jabbar     1972-73   25    -10.8   -13.3   -0.242           -1.0699   
410    Chris Paul              2011-12   26    -7      -5.6    -0.175   -5.5    -1.0739   
411    Chris Paul              2008-09   23    -13.9   -9.4    -0.327   -9.5    -1.0762   
412    Stephen Curry           2015-16   27    -9.2    -6.6    -0.166   -4.9    -1.143   
413    Kevin Durant            2015-16   27    -7.9    -9.2    -0.14    -5.9    -1.1686   
414    Joel Embiid             2021-22   27    -12.1   -2.6    -0.135   -9.1    -1.3246   
415    Joel Embiid             2022-23   28    -11.1   -9.4    -0.169   -7.3    -1.3324   
416    Kareem Abdul-Jabbar     1971-72   24    -7.5    -14.1   -0.193           -1.4556   


ignoring the gargantuan outlier that is joel embiid, and also karl malone, steph finds himself lumped in way down at the bottom. i feel like he's way more james harden than people want to admit. and to the thrust of some of my earlier points, here is how it looks at his 2015-2019 peak in the 4 seasons where there was actually some threat (warriors down in series/playing competitive series):

Code: Select all

2014-15   -0.2591
2015-16   -1.143
2017-18   -0.5779
2018-19   -0.0509

that's an average of -0.508. in other words, when it wasn't easy, at his peak he basically showed the same resilience as massive outlier joel embiid. and he somehow got 2 titles and a another finals where game 7 was tied with a minute to go. either he's so far an away the best regular season player ever that he can fall off this much and still be amazing, or the guy just really fell off the in the playoffs for almost all of his peak.

[lessthanjake]

either he's so far an away the best regular season player ever that he can fall off this much and still be amazing, or the guy just really fell off the in the playoffs for almost all of his peak.

Considering that his impact profile in the playoffs remains very elite, perhaps it’s actually the former. Or maybe the box stats you’re referencing here don’t tell the whole story with Steph (they definitely don’t) and teams game plan to try to limit Steph more in the playoffs (they do) such that his box-score impact gets lessened a little by the gameplanning but his non-box-score impact gets heightened. Either way, I don’t think “This guy’s box score stats go down a bit in the playoffs but he still has massive playoff impact and had immense playoff success” is as much a negative as you think it is.

[HeartBreakKid]

either he's so far an away the best regular season player ever that he can fall off this much and still be amazing, or the guy just really fell off the in the playoffs for almost all of his peak.

Considering that his impact profile in the playoffs remains very elite, perhaps it’s actually the former. Or maybe the box stats you’re referencing here don’t tell the whole story with Steph (they definitely don’t) and teams game plan to try to limit Steph more in the playoffs (they do) such that his box-score impact gets lessened a little by the gameplanning but his non-box-score impact gets heightened. Either way, I don’t think “This guy’s box score stats go down a bit in the playoffs but he still has massive playoff impact and had immense playoff success” is as much a negative as you think it is.

Don't teams do the same for every great player? That's essentially what resilience is, no?