Rank the top 15 seasons between Lebron/MJ

[wafflzgod]

Interested to see what you guys think of this

I would personally go
1.) 12 Lebron
2.) 13 Lebron
3.) 91 MJ
4.) 09 Lebron
5.) 90 MJ
6.) 89 MJ
7.) 10 Lebron
8.) 92 MJ
9.) 88 MJ
10.) 16 Lebron
11.) 14 Lebron
12.) 17 Lebron
13.) 93 MJ
14.) 18 Lebron
15.) 11 Lebron

[OhayoKD]

Interested to see what you guys think of this

I would personally go
1.) 12 Lebron
2.) 13 Lebron
3.) 91 MJ
4.) 09 Lebron
5.) 90 MJ
6.) 89 MJ
7.) 10 Lebron
8.) 92 MJ
9.) 88 MJ
10.) 16 Lebron
11.) 14 Lebron
12.) 17 Lebron
13.) 93 MJ
14.) 18 Lebron
15.) 11 Lebron

not sure what exactly your approach is(2009 behind 91, 12, and 13 might signal a preference for title-runs), but I'm curious why you're so low on second cleveland. By all emperical indications those 2015-2017 cavs without Lebron were similar to the bulls before they even drafted Jordan, and with Lebron they were much better than the 88-90 bulls in the regular-season before hitting a completely different level in the playoffs with lebron-specific lineups scaling up both with and without co-stars. To be clear, even the 2015 cavs, missing two starters for basically 3/4ths of the playoffs and missing kyrie/love for virtually half posted a psrs of +10 and were a better playoff team than any of jordan's(and also you know, took the 67-win warriors to 6 going 2-1 up before kerr pulled an adjustment).

I also think it's worth considering that the defense they built that suprising success of was built around lebron and defenders who were negative or nuetral before being traded to cleveland in 2015(speaking to the value of an all-time two-way floor general). In 2016, they were still an elite playoff defense despite kyrie and kevin love being negatives(in case you're wondering, that defense was the main reason why the cavs were consistently bad when lebron was absent in the regular-season).

In terms of empirical impact, Lebron's 2015-2017 regular season is pretty comparable to Steph's 2015-2017:
https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?p=106319069#p106319069
Then in the playoffs, the cavs ramp up their offense and defense to another level posting a +14 mark in 2016 and a +13 mark in 2017 including a win against the warriors who, despite curry missing a bunch of playoff games, were +11 when the Cavs ran into them.

People gawk at 2015 Lebron's scoring effeciency, but he had one of the best playmaking years of his career(some of that is role/function) and after losing 20 pounds, played all-time wing defense leading pippen-esque playoff defenses in 15 and 16 that got better against the best offenses. I think excluding it entirely is pretty harsh. With the big three in the lineup, the cavs went +14 and were on-pace for 70ish wins by record during the regular season. In the playoffs the cavs still graded out as statistically better than 5 of the teams led by players here(88,89,89, 11, 14). Difficult to argue that was because of help imo.

[iggymcfrack]

1. 2009 LeBron
2. 1991 Jordan
3. 1990 Jordan
4. 2016 LeBron
5. 1993 Jordan
6. 1988 Jordan
7. 2012 LeBron
8. 1989 Jordan
9. 2017 LeBron
10. 2013 LeBron
11. 1996 Jordan
12. 2010 LeBron
13. 2018 LeBron
14. 1992 Jordan
15. 1987 Jordan
—-
16. 2020 LeBron
17. 1997 Jordan
18. 2008 LeBron
19. 2014 LeBron
20. 1998 Jordan

[One_and_Done]

I mean, I'm not going to rank every prime season for Lebron, but I'd basically have every year of his prime over any year Jordan had, so that's at least the top 10-12 seasons.

[OhayoKD]

1. 2009 LeBron
2. 1991 Jordan
3. 1990 Jordan
4. 2016 LeBron
5. 1993 Jordan
6. 1988 Jordan
7. 2012 LeBron
8. 1989 Jordan
9. 2017 LeBron
10. 2013 LeBron
11. 1996 Jordan
12. 2010 LeBron
13. 2018 LeBron
14. 1992 Jordan
15. 1987 Jordan
—-
16. 2020 LeBron
17. 1997 Jordan
18. 2008 LeBron
19. 2014 LeBron
20. 1998 Jordan

3 of your top 5 mj years see Jordan leading weaker regular and playoff teams than Lebron leads in a year that doesn't even make your top 20(2015). The 15-17 cavs were bad without lebron, even in games or lineups with kyrie and love.

And then there is the matter of the 73-win beater being below the team that lost to a team on par with the 13 spurs. Why are years like 2016, 2015, and 2017 so low?

There's also the matter of a disparity in league-talent which you seem to care alot about when it comes to pre-90 basketball players.

[Gregoire]

1991 Jordan
1990 Jordan
1989 Jordan
2009 LeBron
2016 LeBron
1992 Jordan
1993 Jordan
1988 Jordan
2010 LeBron
2012 LeBron
2017 LeBron
2013 LeBron
1996 Jordan
2018 LeBron
1987 Jordan
—-
1997 Jordan
2020 LeBron
2008 LeBron
2014 LeBron
1998 Jordan

[Djoker]

Will just copy and paste my reasoning from the Top 12 Primes Project:

Spoiler:

I see only 2009 Lebron as being on the same tier as Jordan's 3-year peak from 1989-1991. But considering this season is sandwiched between 2008 and 2010 which won't even make the list or even come close, I have less confidence in this version of Lebron. Jordan's 1988, 1992 and 1993 are also near flawless (a smidge below the 1989-1991 stretch) and I don't see any Lebron season at that level not even 2012. For instance comparing Lebron's playoff stats in 2012 playoffs vs. Jordan's weaker immortal six playoffs 1992 per 75 possessions:

Lebron 2012: 29.0 ppg, 9.3 rpg (2.2 o), 5.4 apg, 1.8 spg, 0.7 bpg on 57.6 %TS (+ 4.9 rTS) with 3.4 topg
Jordan 1992: 33.4 ppg, 6.0 rpg (1.7 o), 5.6 apg, 1.9 spg, 0.7 bpg on 57.1 %TS (+4.0 rTS) with 3.5 topg

Jordan's weakest of his top 6 seasons still comes out comfortably ahead of 2012 Lebron and MJ also had a better regular season.

Generally when comparing their best seasons we see something in the neighbourgood of 5 PPG more, same efficiency, comparable creation and lower turnovers for Jordan. You'd have to value Lebron's defense at least an entire tier or even two of ahead of Jordan's to see their peaks as comparable and I don't see that at all. Lebron will do comparatively better than Bird or Duncan in a comparison against Jordan simply because of more quality seasons bringing up the rear but in terms of peak or near peak quality he can't match MJ. To be frank I don't think anyone can. Kareem gives Jordan the best run for his money in my book.

Top 10 Jordan Seasons:

1991
1990
1989
1988
1992
1993
1996
1997
1987
1998

Top 10 Lebron Seasons:

2009
2012
2016
2013
2017
2018
2020
2010
2014
2015

Top 15 Combined Seasons:

1991 Jordan
1990 Jordan
1989 Jordan
2009 Lebron
1988 Jordan
1992 Jordan
1993 Jordan
2012 Lebron
2016 Lebron
2013 Lebron
1996 Jordan
2017 Lebron
2018 Lebron
2020 Lebron
1997 Jordan

[rk2023]

I’d probably give 8 to Bron, 7 to MJ in this context

[falcolombardi]

Have not thought about this in months and i dont even remember what i voted last time we did this like a year ago.

Gun to my head i probably would go with somethingh like this

1-2009 lebron
2-2016 lebron
3-2017 lebron
4-2013 lebron
5-2012 lebron
6-1990 jordan
7-1989 jordan
8-1988 jordan
9-1991 jordan
10-2018 lebron
10-2010 lebron
11-1992 jordan
12-1993 jordan
13-1996 jordan
14-2014 lebron
15- 2015 lebron/1987 jordan/1997 jordan

[iggymcfrack]

1. 2009 LeBron
2. 1991 Jordan
3. 1990 Jordan
4. 2016 LeBron
5. 1993 Jordan
6. 1988 Jordan
7. 2012 LeBron
8. 1989 Jordan
9. 2017 LeBron
10. 2013 LeBron
11. 1996 Jordan
12. 2010 LeBron
13. 2018 LeBron
14. 1992 Jordan
15. 1987 Jordan
—-
16. 2020 LeBron
17. 1997 Jordan
18. 2008 LeBron
19. 2014 LeBron
20. 1998 Jordan

3 of your top 5 mj years see Jordan leading weaker regular and playoff teams than Lebron leads in a year that doesn't even make your top 20(2015). The 15-17 cavs were bad without lebron, even in games or lineups with kyrie and love.

And then there is the matter of the 73-win beater being below the team that lost to a team on par with the 13 spurs. Why are years like 2016, 2015, and 2017 so low?

There's also the matter of a disparity in league-talent which you seem to care alot about when it comes to pre-90 basketball players.

I'm not particularly impressed with 2015. LeBron had the worst regular season BPM he'd have any season from 2005-2022 and a worse playoff BPM than he'd have any year during that span except 2011. His on/off for the playoffs was +0.8. He really struggled with efficiency that year as even in the regular season he had a TS% of .577 which was well below par, and then in the playoffs that dropped to a dismal .487, the worst of his career.

Also, you're blaming Jordan for the team not performing well in 1990, but the playoff on/off data we have for that season has him at +32.6, a higher number than LeBron would have any playoffs of his career other than a first round exit in 2021. Jordan's regular season BPM was higher than all but 3 LeBron seasons and his postseason BPM beats every LeBron season except 2009. If I'm going to give LeBron credit for doing everything he possibly could with an overmatched team in 2009 and give that year credit as the best of all-time despite a conference finals loss, I think it's only fair to do the same for Jordan in 1990 when he's putting up insane numbers and the team's just **** the bed every time he takes a rest against the Pistons.

[OhayoKD]

but the playoff on/off data we have for that season has him at +32.6, a higher number than LeBron would have any playoffs of his career other than a first round exit in 2021.

Lebron matches MJ's 1990 on/off in 2017 which you have ranked 9th on a much better team(+13 rolling-srs in the playoffs[/b]) after putting up "crazy numbers" vs the greatest team ever(and also arguably the best playoff defense of the era).

We also don't have to restrict ourselves to the tiniest samples:

Jordan joins a 27-win team and then despite marginal increase in his own box(yes including bpm), that team skyrockets by 4 points of srs(it is rolling so arguably undersells) over half a season. Using a much tinier off-sample to pretend Jordan had no help is pretty silly.

BPM also doesn't account for is that Jordan was a secondary ball-handler facing less defensive attention who played with better defensive support than Lebron did in cleveland. Once kyrie and love go out, it's hard to argue Lebron had better offensive support either:

Spoiler:

Let's start with 2015. To set the table, the lebron-less cavs with kyrie and love are a bad defense and average offense if you go by net-rating(-1.73 overall, 30ish wins). This is also true in 2016(-1.7), 2017(-2.81) which adds up to -1.99 for all 3-seasons. Without any of the 3, the cavs are -14.62.

With Lebron and no kyrie or love, the Cavs are +6.79. With all 3 they're +10.76(PBPstats). with both and without both Lebron looks historically valuable.

But maybe this is just a matter of wonky lineups/rotations? Well, we can then look at WOWY, only including games where the Cavaliers knew they'd be playing without Lebron. In 2015 they were 3-10 without Lebron. Extending our sample the Cavs out to 2017 and the Cavs were 4-23. In games without Lebron and with Kyrie and Love, the cavs were 4-11, a 21-win pace.

With Lebron, the 2015 Cavs went 50-19(59-win). Without they went 3-10 going at a 19-win pace. With all three of Love, Kyrie, and Lebron, the Cavs were 42-5(73-win) improving from 4-11 with just kyrie and love 21-win(note that's a 3-year sample, not just 2015).

And then we have you cherrypicking scoring...

I'm not particularly impressed with 2015. LeBron had the worst regular season BPM he'd have any season from 2005-2022 and a worse playoff BPM than he'd have any year during that span except 2011. His on/off for the playoffs was +0.8. He really struggled with efficiency that year as even in the regular season he had a TS% of .577 which was well below par, and then in the playoffs that dropped to a dismal .487, the worst of his career.

It is also an all-time year in terms of impact(adjusted or raw), an all-time playmaking year(goatish in the playoffs) by box or sophisticated box, and Lebron is still the better defender, the better creator(higher passer-rating and box-creation), and the much better floor-general on a team that was better than 3 of apex MJ's in the rs and the playoffs:

Spoiler:

Playoff Offensive Rating: +4.2 (63rd), Playoff Defensive Rating: -5.4 (44th)
Playoff SRS: +9.98 (65th), Total SRS Increase through Playoffs: +3.72 (26th)
Average Playoff Opponent Offense: +2.85 (32nd), Average Playoff Opponent Defense: -2.37 (41st)
...
Keeping in mind Lebron averaged 11 more minutes in the regular season and 14 more minutes in the playoffs
2015 Cavs, Lebron no Mosgov Defensive Rating: 107, net: +8, 1685 min
2015 Cavs, Mosgov no Lebron Defensive Rating: 109, net: +2, 340 min
2015 Cavs, Lebron lineups(2494 min) vs No Lebron Lineups(1492 min), 4-point defensive improvement
2015 Cavs, Mosgov lineups(1149 min) vs No Mosgov Lineups(2807 min), 5-point defensive improvement

If you're determined, a case for the two being comparable per-possession is there(just pretend he didn't play in Denver), but Lebron clearly is more impactful over the course of a game even restricting our evaluation to mosgov's secret "dpoy" season(and ignoring that the nugget's defense actually improved by a point without him)


I see no such "per-possession" case for Steph, even taking the numbers at face value. Steph-lineups are <2 points better defensively and that shifts to <1 point when we compare Steph/Dray to Dray/No Steph(Steph being nuetral or a marginal positive is also consistent for his prime, regardless of approach). And while we can argue about how to divy up credit for the defense of the 15 Cavs, Lebron being a positive is pretty indisputable, with Lebron lineups without any of the three teammates you mentioned(1005 min) still performing a point better defensively than Lebron-less ones(1161 min).

...

Prime or not prime, Lebron was still the Cavs primary paint deterrent, still the Cavs most involved help defender, and still the guy directing his teammates on both ends of the floor. That last bit might not show up in the box-score, but it's a big reason why role players suddenly "peak" when they play with Lebron(Shumpert and Mozgov were both defensive negatives on the Knicks and Nuggets respectively). The Cavs would not be a good defense if they swapped Lebron and Steph, and Curry would be a flat negative if he were to swap Klay and Dray for Kyrie and Love.

That -5.4 comes on a team that was bad defensively without him with players who were negatives or neutral before they arrived. And on top of anchoring that defense he also posted as ast% of 45 to a tov% of 11. But you know, subjectively weighted box-score says Lebron wasnt impressive

That 8 point efficiency drop comes with a big playmaking spike(on excellent turnover economy) and Lebron's volume jumping by 5 points. And you know, they're still a good offense with kyrie/love missing nearly half or all of the playoffs, after being the best regular-season offense with lebron on the floor, but yeah alright, the true-shooting wasn't high enough

LeBron credit for doing everything he possibly could with an overmatched team in 2009 and give that year credit as the best of all-time despite a conference finals loss, I think it's only fair to do the same for Jordan in 1990 when he's putting up insane numbers and the team's just **** the bed every time he takes a rest against the Pistons.

But Jordan didn't do everything vs Detroit. He didn't anchor the -5 defense that kept them competitive. He didn't run the offense or the defense. He wasn't the primary ball-handler allowing him to face less defensive attention, and he wasn't creating as efficiently or at the volume Lebron was.

This is a false equivalency and realistically, when we consider things that don't show up in the box-score, second cleveland Lebron was closer to "doing everything" than MJ was...

[homecourtloss]

but the playoff on/off data we have for that season has him at +32.6, a higher number than LeBron would have any playoffs of his career other than a first round exit in 2021.

Lebron matches MJ's 1990 on/off in 2017 which you have ranked 9th on a much better team(+13 rolling-srs in the playoffs[/b]) after putting up "crazy numbers" vs the greatest team ever(and also arguably the best playoff defense of the era).

We also don't have to restrict ourselves to the tiniest samples:

Jordan joins a 27-win team and then despite marginal increase in his own box(yes including bpm), that team skyrockets by 4 points of srs(it is rolling so arguably undersells) over half a season. Using a much tinier off-sample to pretend Jordan had no help is pretty silly.

BPM also doesn't account for is that Jordan was a secondary ball-handler facing less defensive attention who played with better defensive support than Lebron did in cleveland. Once kyrie and love go out, it's hard to argue Lebron had better offensive support either:

Spoiler:

Let's start with 2015. To set the table, the lebron-less cavs with kyrie and love are a bad defense and average offense if you go by net-rating(-1.73 overall, 30ish wins). This is also true in 2016(-1.7), 2017(-2.81) which adds up to -1.99 for all 3-seasons. Without any of the 3, the cavs are -14.62.

With Lebron and no kyrie or love, the Cavs are +6.79. With all 3 they're +10.76(PBPstats). with both and without both Lebron looks historically valuable.

But maybe this is just a matter of wonky lineups/rotations? Well, we can then look at WOWY, only including games where the Cavaliers knew they'd be playing without Lebron. In 2015 they were 3-10 without Lebron. Extending our sample the Cavs out to 2017 and the Cavs were 4-23. In games without Lebron and with Kyrie and Love, the cavs were 4-11, a 21-win pace.

With Lebron, the 2015 Cavs went 50-19(59-win). Without they went 3-10 going at a 19-win pace. With all three of Love, Kyrie, and Lebron, the Cavs were 42-5(73-win) improving from 4-11 with just kyrie and love 21-win(note that's a 3-year sample, not just 2015).

And then we have you cherrypicking scoring...

I'm not particularly impressed with 2015. LeBron had the worst regular season BPM he'd have any season from 2005-2022 and a worse playoff BPM than he'd have any year during that span except 2011. His on/off for the playoffs was +0.8. He really struggled with efficiency that year as even in the regular season he had a TS% of .577 which was well below par, and then in the playoffs that dropped to a dismal .487, the worst of his career.

It is also an all-time year in terms of impact(adjusted or raw), an all-time playmaking year(goatish in the playoffs) by box or sophisticated box, and Lebron is still the better defender, the better creator(higher passer-rating and box-creation), and the much better floor-general on a team that was better than 3 of apex MJ's in the rs and the playoffs:

Spoiler:

Playoff Offensive Rating: +4.2 (63rd), Playoff Defensive Rating: -5.4 (44th)
Playoff SRS: +9.98 (65th), Total SRS Increase through Playoffs: +3.72 (26th)
Average Playoff Opponent Offense: +2.85 (32nd), Average Playoff Opponent Defense: -2.37 (41st)
...
Keeping in mind Lebron averaged 11 more minutes in the regular season and 14 more minutes in the playoffs
2015 Cavs, Lebron no Mosgov Defensive Rating: 107, net: +8, 1685 min
2015 Cavs, Mosgov no Lebron Defensive Rating: 109, net: +2, 340 min
2015 Cavs, Lebron lineups(2494 min) vs No Lebron Lineups(1492 min), 4-point defensive improvement
2015 Cavs, Mosgov lineups(1149 min) vs No Mosgov Lineups(2807 min), 5-point defensive improvement

If you're determined, a case for the two being comparable per-possession is there(just pretend he didn't play in Denver), but Lebron clearly is more impactful over the course of a game even restricting our evaluation to mosgov's secret "dpoy" season(and ignoring that the nugget's defense actually improved by a point without him)


I see no such "per-possession" case for Steph, even taking the numbers at face value. Steph-lineups are <2 points better defensively and that shifts to <1 point when we compare Steph/Dray to Dray/No Steph(Steph being nuetral or a marginal positive is also consistent for his prime, regardless of approach). And while we can argue about how to divy up credit for the defense of the 15 Cavs, Lebron being a positive is pretty indisputable, with Lebron lineups without any of the three teammates you mentioned(1005 min) still performing a point better defensively than Lebron-less ones(1161 min).

...

Prime or not prime, Lebron was still the Cavs primary paint deterrent, still the Cavs most involved help defender, and still the guy directing his teammates on both ends of the floor. That last bit might not show up in the box-score, but it's a big reason why role players suddenly "peak" when they play with Lebron(Shumpert and Mozgov were both defensive negatives on the Knicks and Nuggets respectively). The Cavs would not be a good defense if they swapped Lebron and Steph, and Curry would be a flat negative if he were to swap Klay and Dray for Kyrie and Love.

That -5.4 comes on a team that was bad defensively without him with players who were negatives or neutral before they arrived. And on top of anchoring that defense he also posted as ast% of 45 to a tov% of 11. But you know, subjectively weighted box-score says Lebron wasnt impressive

That 8 point efficiency drop comes with a big playmaking spike(on excellent turnover economy) and Lebron's volume jumping by 5 points. And you know, they're still a good offense with kyrie/love missing nearly half or all of the playoffs, after being the best regular-season offense with lebron on the floor, but yeah alright, the true-shooting wasn't high enough

LeBron credit for doing everything he possibly could with an overmatched team in 2009 and give that year credit as the best of all-time despite a conference finals loss, I think it's only fair to do the same for Jordan in 1990 when he's putting up insane numbers and the team's just **** the bed every time he takes a rest against the Pistons.

But Jordan didn't do everything vs Detroit. He didn't anchor the -5 defense that kept them competitive. He didn't run the offense or the defense. He wasn't the primary ball-handler allowing him to face less defensive attention, and he wasn't creating as efficiently or at the volume Lebron was.

This is a false equivalency and realistically, when we consider things that don't show up in the box-score, second cleveland Lebron was closer to "doing everything" than MJ was...

Just want to add that as for the other poster’s comment about the “32.6 on/off” higher than any number, LeBron would ever have, NBA.com counting exact possessions has LeBron’s 2017 playoffs on-off at +32.2 WITH an on court of +13 EVEN THOUGH he played 5 games against the best team ever (27.8% of his games, 28.5% of all his minutes).

That’s better than a +32.6 estimate along with a +7.55 on court.

Actually, +38.3 ON-OFF vs.the best team ever (i.e., Lebron vs. the 2017 Warriors) is incredibly impressive especially considering with the other two best players were at:

LeBron: +38.3 ON-OFF
Kyrie: -10.4 ON-OFF
KLove: -19.2 ON-OFF

JR Smith: -2.5 ON-OFF
TT: -16.7 ON-OFF

[OhayoKD]

but the playoff on/off data we have for that season has him at +32.6, a higher number than LeBron would have any playoffs of his career other than a first round exit in 2021.

Lebron matches MJ's 1990 on/off in 2017 which you have ranked 9th on a much better team(+13 rolling-srs in the playoffs[/b]) after putting up "crazy numbers" vs the greatest team ever(and also arguably the best playoff defense of the era).

We also don't have to restrict ourselves to the tiniest samples:

Jordan joins a 27-win team and then despite marginal increase in his own box(yes including bpm), that team skyrockets by 4 points of srs(it is rolling so arguably undersells) over half a season. Using a much tinier off-sample to pretend Jordan had no help is pretty silly.

BPM also doesn't account for is that Jordan was a secondary ball-handler facing less defensive attention who played with better defensive support than Lebron did in cleveland. Once kyrie and love go out, it's hard to argue Lebron had better offensive support either:

Spoiler:

Let's start with 2015. To set the table, the lebron-less cavs with kyrie and love are a bad defense and average offense if you go by net-rating(-1.73 overall, 30ish wins). This is also true in 2016(-1.7), 2017(-2.81) which adds up to -1.99 for all 3-seasons. Without any of the 3, the cavs are -14.62.



With Lebron and no kyrie or love, the Cavs are +6.79. With all 3 they're +10.76(PBPstats). with both and without both Lebron looks historically valuable.

But maybe this is just a matter of wonky lineups/rotations? Well, we can then look at WOWY, only including games where the Cavaliers knew they'd be playing without Lebron. In 2015 they were 3-10 without Lebron. Extending our sample the Cavs out to 2017 and the Cavs were 4-23. In games without Lebron and with Kyrie and Love, the cavs were 4-11, a 21-win pace.

With Lebron, the 2015 Cavs went 50-19(59-win). Without they went 3-10 going at a 19-win pace. With all three of Love, Kyrie, and Lebron, the Cavs were 42-5(73-win) improving from 4-11 with just kyrie and love 21-win(note that's a 3-year sample, not just 2015).

And then we have you cherrypicking scoring...

I'm not particularly impressed with 2015. LeBron had the worst regular season BPM he'd have any season from 2005-2022 and a worse playoff BPM than he'd have any year during that span except 2011. His on/off for the playoffs was +0.8. He really struggled with efficiency that year as even in the regular season he had a TS% of .577 which was well below par, and then in the playoffs that dropped to a dismal .487, the worst of his career.

It is also an all-time year in terms of impact(adjusted or raw), an all-time playmaking year(goatish in the playoffs) by box or sophisticated box, and Lebron is still the better defender, the better creator(higher passer-rating and box-creation), and the much better floor-general on a team that was better than 3 of apex MJ's in the rs and the playoffs:

Spoiler:

Playoff Offensive Rating: +4.2 (63rd), Playoff Defensive Rating: -5.4 (44th)
Playoff SRS: +9.98 (65th), Total SRS Increase through Playoffs: +3.72 (26th)
Average Playoff Opponent Offense: +2.85 (32nd), Average Playoff Opponent Defense: -2.37 (41st)
...
Keeping in mind Lebron averaged 11 more minutes in the regular season and 14 more minutes in the playoffs
2015 Cavs, Lebron no Mosgov Defensive Rating: 107, net: +8, 1685 min
2015 Cavs, Mosgov no Lebron Defensive Rating: 109, net: +2, 340 min
2015 Cavs, Lebron lineups(2494 min) vs No Lebron Lineups(1492 min), 4-point defensive improvement
2015 Cavs, Mosgov lineups(1149 min) vs No Mosgov Lineups(2807 min), 5-point defensive improvement

If you're determined, a case for the two being comparable per-possession is there(just pretend he didn't play in Denver), but Lebron clearly is more impactful over the course of a game even restricting our evaluation to mosgov's secret "dpoy" season(and ignoring that the nugget's defense actually improved by a point without him)


I see no such "per-possession" case for Steph, even taking the numbers at face value. Steph-lineups are <2 points better defensively and that shifts to <1 point when we compare Steph/Dray to Dray/No Steph(Steph being nuetral or a marginal positive is also consistent for his prime, regardless of approach). And while we can argue about how to divy up credit for the defense of the 15 Cavs, Lebron being a positive is pretty indisputable, with Lebron lineups without any of the three teammates you mentioned(1005 min) still performing a point better defensively than Lebron-less ones(1161 min).

...

Prime or not prime, Lebron was still the Cavs primary paint deterrent, still the Cavs most involved help defender, and still the guy directing his teammates on both ends of the floor. That last bit might not show up in the box-score, but it's a big reason why role players suddenly "peak" when they play with Lebron(Shumpert and Mozgov were both defensive negatives on the Knicks and Nuggets respectively). The Cavs would not be a good defense if they swapped Lebron and Steph, and Curry would be a flat negative if he were to swap Klay and Dray for Kyrie and Love.

That -5.4 comes on a team that was bad defensively without him with players who were negatives or neutral before they arrived. And on top of anchoring that defense he also posted as ast% of 45 to a tov% of 11. But you know, subjectively weighted box-score says Lebron wasnt impressive

That 8 point efficiency drop comes with a big playmaking spike(on excellent turnover economy) and Lebron's volume jumping by 5 points. And you know, they're still a good offense with kyrie/love missing nearly half or all of the playoffs, after being the best regular-season offense with lebron on the floor, but yeah alright, the true-shooting wasn't high enough

LeBron credit for doing everything he possibly could with an overmatched team in 2009 and give that year credit as the best of all-time despite a conference finals loss, I think it's only fair to do the same for Jordan in 1990 when he's putting up insane numbers and the team's just **** the bed every time he takes a rest against the Pistons.

But Jordan didn't do everything vs Detroit. He didn't anchor the -5 defense that kept them competitive. He didn't run the offense or the defense. He wasn't the primary ball-handler allowing him to face less defensive attention, and he wasn't creating as efficiently or at the volume Lebron was.

This is a false equivalency and realistically, when we consider things that don't show up in the box-score, second cleveland Lebron was closer to "doing everything" than MJ was...

Just want to add that as for the other poster’s comment about the “32.6 on/off” higher than any number, LeBron would ever have, NBA.com counting exact possessions has LeBron’s 2017 playoffs on-off at +32.2 WITH an on court of +13 EVEN THOUGH he played 5 games against the best team ever (27.8% of his games, 28.5% of all his minutes).

That’s better than a +32.6 estimate along with a +7.55 on court.

And, rather importantly, that small on/off sample lines up with larger stuff, with the delta expanding when we minimize rotations as a factor and give Cleveland some time to adjust:



In fairness that is not the largest sample(8 games) but it is corroborated by a 13 game sample in 2015, and extended stuff(as well as lineup-data) from the three-years in question. And that is the regular-season before Cleveland jumps to a +13 psrs in the playoffs(following a +14 in 2016).

Lebron is just a better player. Being able to anchor and organize your team on both sides of the court, while also efficiently having everything run through you on offense, outweighs scoring better.

When Lebron is matching or bettering in Jordan's box, it ceases being a question(2009). But Lebron does not need to put up the same slashlines to offer more value to his teams.

[Djoker]

The 2017 (and 2018) Cavs emphasized offense at the expense of defense.

In the 2017 Finals, Lebron put up gaudy offensive numbers in an extremely fast-paced series full of blowouts. And he played horrific defense. It was breakdown after breakdown for Lebron. I don't know how even fans of Lebron can watch and defend it. At times he played with no zero effort on the defensive end which is inexcusable.

Watch on YouTube

You can't even complain that the clips are cherrypicked. It's 23 minutes long!

We can worship boxscores all we want but being +13 ON court and getting pulverized in the Finals is not a good look. It either means a) the Cavs were pretenders who faced weak competition before the finals or b) they were legit contenders and still got pasted. Yes the Warriors were a GOAT-level team. But so were the Cavs considering how they were pasting those not-weak East teams by insane margins. Right?

And before someone says that the Cavs were only -7 with Lebron on the court vs. the Warriors, that's misleading. There were -22 in Game 1, -11 in Game 2, +7 in Game 3, +32 in Game 7, and -13 in Game 5. In the four losses excluding Game 4, they were -39 with Lebron ON the court and three of them were blowout losses (-46 with Lebron ON). Game 3 was the one game they lost and were positive with Lebron on the court but Lebron was terrible down the stretch and got completely outplayed by KD to go down 0-3. He was -10 in the 4th quarter. The Cavs' one blowout win came in Game 4 after the series was basically over.

KD probably outplayed Lebron in this entire series when you consider his far superior clutch play and defense. And still here we are taking this Lebron season over Jordan's best seasons.

[rk2023]

The 2017 (and 2018) Cavs emphasized offense at the expense of defense.

In the 2017 Finals, Lebron put up gaudy offensive numbers in an extremely fast-paced series full of blowouts. And he played horrific defense. It was breakdown after breakdown for Lebron. I don't know how even fans of Lebron can watch and defend it. At times he played with no zero effort on the defensive end which is inexcusable.

Watch on YouTube

You can't even complain that the clips are cherrypicked. It's 23 minutes long!

We can worship boxscores all we want but being +13 ON court and getting pulverized in the Finals is not a good look. It either means a) the Cavs were pretenders who faced weak competition before the finals or b) they were legit contenders and still got pasted. Yes the Warriors were a GOAT-level team. But so were the Cavs considering how they were pasting those not-weak East teams by insane margins. Right?

And before someone says that the Cavs were only -7 with Lebron on the court vs. the Warriors, that's misleading. There were -22 in Game 1, -11 in Game 2, +7 in Game 3, +32 in Game 7, and -13 in Game 5. In the four losses excluding Game 4, they were -39 with Lebron ON the court and three of them were blowout losses (-46 with Lebron ON). Game 3 was the one game they lost and were positive with Lebron on the court but Lebron was terrible down the stretch and got completely outplayed by KD to go down 0-3. He was -10 in the 4th quarter. The Cavs' one blowout win came in Game 4 after the series was basically over.

KD probably outplayed Lebron in this entire series when you consider his far superior clutch play and defense. And still here we are taking this Lebron season over Jordan's best seasons.

For transparency, II'm not defending James' 2017 / 18 defense by any means of the imagination. But you do realize NTJ (the poster whom you linked) is known for cherry-picking samples and being disingenuous as a poster? I see some breakdowns/errors undoubtedly, but from glancing over - one would be grasping at straws to consider a lot of these clips serving as James' defense hurting the team. Just look at how much open court the Warriors have possession after possession. You mentioned this being a personnel thing, which seems much more the elephant in the room here.

As for Durant, "probably outplaying" is a convenient way to frame him having the comfortable #2 player of the modern generation and clear best defender since Duncan/KG along his side - where both of Curry and Green very arguably served the foundation of the team and even gave KD the luxury of having the 99.99th %ile of situation to maximize him / miss 20 games en route to conserving for the finals - as well as the fact that a Green/Iggy/Durant middle and back line is a much more prominent defensive tandem than what KD had to square off against.

[homecourtloss]

The 2017 (and 2018) Cavs emphasized offense at the expense of defense.

In the 2017 Finals, Lebron put up gaudy offensive numbers in an extremely fast-paced series full of blowouts. And he played horrific defense. It was breakdown after breakdown for Lebron. I don't know how even fans of Lebron can watch and defend it. At times he played with no zero effort on the defensive end which is inexcusable.

Watch on YouTube

You can't even complain that the clips are cherrypicked. It's 23 minutes long!

We can worship boxscores all we want but being +13 ON court and getting pulverized in the Finals is not a good look. It either means a) the Cavs were pretenders who faced weak competition before the finals or b) they were legit contenders and still got pasted. Yes the Warriors were a GOAT-level team. But so were the Cavs considering how they were pasting those not-weak East teams by insane margins. Right?

And before someone says that the Cavs were only -7 with Lebron on the court vs. the Warriors, that's misleading. There were -22 in Game 1, -11 in Game 2, +7 in Game 3, +32 in Game 7, and -13 in Game 5. In the four losses excluding Game 4, they were -39 with Lebron ON the court and three of them were blowout losses (-46 with Lebron ON). Game 3 was the one game they lost and were positive with Lebron on the court but Lebron was terrible down the stretch and got completely outplayed by KD to go down 0-3. He was -10 in the 4th quarter. The Cavs' one blowout win came in Game 4 after the series was basically over.

KD probably outplayed Lebron in this entire series when you consider his far superior clutch play and defense. And still here we are taking this Lebron season over Jordan's best seasons.

+13.0 ON, +32.2 on-off for the playoffs, +38.3 on-off in the finals is more impressive than leading a team that had perfect health to a +2.87 SRS and then an estimated +7.55 on court rating.

LeBron was +38.3 on-off vs. the best team ever. In a different thread, you seem to be impressed with massive on-off numbers but they seem to be handwaved away here for some reason.

LeBron: +38.3 ON-OFF [+206.2 on-off in game 3]

Game 3
45:37 with LeBron: +7
2:23 without LeBron: -12

Too bad these guys couldn’t do much:
Kyrie: -10.4 ON-OFF
KLove: -19.2 ON-OFF

JR Smith: -2.5 ON-OFF
TT: -16.7 ON-OFF

As for Kevin Durant, it must be nice to have one of the generation’s best defenders along with one of the generation’s best wing defenders along with one of the generation’s (or any generation’s) greatest impact players along side of him. Meanwhile, LeBron had to be both the best offensive player and the best defensive player on his team.

[Djoker]

The 2017 (and 2018) Cavs emphasized offense at the expense of defense.

In the 2017 Finals, Lebron put up gaudy offensive numbers in an extremely fast-paced series full of blowouts. And he played horrific defense. It was breakdown after breakdown for Lebron. I don't know how even fans of Lebron can watch and defend it. At times he played with no zero effort on the defensive end which is inexcusable.

Watch on YouTube

You can't even complain that the clips are cherrypicked. It's 23 minutes long!

We can worship boxscores all we want but being +13 ON court and getting pulverized in the Finals is not a good look. It either means a) the Cavs were pretenders who faced weak competition before the finals or b) they were legit contenders and still got pasted. Yes the Warriors were a GOAT-level team. But so were the Cavs considering how they were pasting those not-weak East teams by insane margins. Right?

And before someone says that the Cavs were only -7 with Lebron on the court vs. the Warriors, that's misleading. There were -22 in Game 1, -11 in Game 2, +7 in Game 3, +32 in Game 7, and -13 in Game 5. In the four losses excluding Game 4, they were -39 with Lebron ON the court and three of them were blowout losses (-46 with Lebron ON). Game 3 was the one game they lost and were positive with Lebron on the court but Lebron was terrible down the stretch and got completely outplayed by KD to go down 0-3. He was -10 in the 4th quarter. The Cavs' one blowout win came in Game 4 after the series was basically over.

KD probably outplayed Lebron in this entire series when you consider his far superior clutch play and defense. And still here we are taking this Lebron season over Jordan's best seasons.

+13.0 ON, +32.2 on-off for the playoffs, +38.3 on-off in the finals is more impressive than leading a team that had perfect health to a +2.87 SRS and then an estimated +7.55 on court rating.

LeBron was +38.3 on-off vs. the best team ever. In a different thread, you seem to be impressed with massive on-off numbers but they seem to be handwaved away here for some reason.

LeBron: +38.3 ON-OFF [+206.2 on-off in game 3]
45:37 with LeBron: +7
2:23 without LeBron: -12

Too bad these guys couldn’t do much:
Kyrie: -10.4 ON-OFF
KLove: -19.2 ON-OFF

JR Smith: -2.5 ON-OFF
TT: -16.7 ON-OFF

As for Kevin Durant, it must be nice to have one of the generation’s best defenders along with one of the generation’s best wing defenders along with one of the generation’s (or any generation’s) greatest impact players along side of him. Meanwhile, LeBron had to be both the best offensive player and the best defensive player on his team.

+38.3 ON-OFF in the Finals isn't at all impressive when it's disproportionately boosted by one blowout win that came after down 0-3. In the other four games (all losses), the Cavs were -10.9/48 minutes with Lebron ON court. Getting absolutely smacked...

You seem to imply that Lebron had terrible teammates facing a far superior team. The betting odds going into the 2017 Finals weren't that bad for the Cavs. They were +250 which is an implied probability of 28.6% of winning the series. Most analysts favored the Warriors but had the series being close and going 6 or 7 games. Getting pulverized in 5 games is either a big underachievement or the Cavs were overrated to begin with because they were beating weak teams in the Eastern Conference in which case the massive +13 ON court in the playoffs is moot.

[homecourtloss]

The 2017 (and 2018) Cavs emphasized offense at the expense of defense.

In the 2017 Finals, Lebron put up gaudy offensive numbers in an extremely fast-paced series full of blowouts. And he played horrific defense. It was breakdown after breakdown for Lebron. I don't know how even fans of Lebron can watch and defend it. At times he played with no zero effort on the defensive end which is inexcusable.

We can worship boxscores all we want but being +13 ON court and getting pulverized in the Finals is not a good look. It either means a) the Cavs were pretenders who faced weak competition before the finals or b) they were legit contenders and still got pasted. Yes the Warriors were a GOAT-level team. But so were the Cavs considering how they were pasting those not-weak East teams by insane margins. Right?

And before someone says that the Cavs were only -7 with Lebron on the court vs. the Warriors, that's misleading. There were -22 in Game 1, -11 in Game 2, +7 in Game 3, +32 in Game 7, and -13 in Game 5. In the four losses excluding Game 4, they were -39 with Lebron ON the court and three of them were blowout losses (-46 with Lebron ON). Game 3 was the one game they lost and were positive with Lebron on the court but Lebron was terrible down the stretch and got completely outplayed by KD to go down 0-3. He was -10 in the 4th quarter. The Cavs' one blowout win came in Game 4 after the series was basically over.

KD probably outplayed Lebron in this entire series when you consider his far superior clutch play and defense. And still here we are taking this Lebron season over Jordan's best seasons.

+13.0 ON, +32.2 on-off for the playoffs, +38.3 on-off in the finals is more impressive than leading a team that had perfect health to a +2.87 SRS and then an estimated +7.55 on court rating.

LeBron was +38.3 on-off vs. the best team ever. In a different thread, you seem to be impressed with massive on-off numbers but they seem to be handwaved away here for some reason.

LeBron: +38.3 ON-OFF [+206.2 on-off in game 3]
45:37 with LeBron: +7
2:23 without LeBron: -12

Too bad these guys couldn’t do much:
Kyrie: -10.4 ON-OFF
KLove: -19.2 ON-OFF

JR Smith: -2.5 ON-OFF
TT: -16.7 ON-OFF

As for Kevin Durant, it must be nice to have one of the generation’s best defenders along with one of the generation’s best wing defenders along with one of the generation’s (or any generation’s) greatest impact players along side of him. Meanwhile, LeBron had to be both the best offensive player and the best defensive player on his team.

+38.3 ON-OFF in the Finals isn't at all impressive when it's disproportionately boosted by one blowout win that came after down 0-3. In the other four games (all losses), the Cavs were -10.9/48 minutes with Lebron ON court. Getting absolutely smacked...

You seem to imply that Lebron had terrible teammates facing a far superior team. The betting odds going into the 2017 Finals weren't that bad for the Cavs. They were +250 which is an implied probability of 28.6% of winning the series. Most analysts favored the Warriors but had the series being close and going 6 or 7 games. Getting pulverized in 5 games is either a big underachievement or the Cavs were overrated to begin with because they were beating weak teams in the Eastern Conference in which case the massive +13 ON court in the playoffs is moot.

You ignored game 3 data, of course, and lumped in with the other games. Also, you can’t just hand wave away a 30 point victory against a team that did not lose at all during the playoffs, but should’ve lost twice to LeBron if his teammates could’ve made a basket or gotten a stop in the 2 1/2 minutes he was off the floor in game three.

LeBron didn’t have terrible teammates (they didn’t really play well nor make much impact), but he didn’t have the type of teammates that Kevin Durant did. Kevin Durant wasn’t even the best player on his own team. Steph Curry is multiple tiers ahead of somebody like Kyrie Irving if your contention is that Steph Curry is the second best player on the Warriors compared with the second best player on the Cavaliers, i.e, Kyrie, which I don’t agree with; if that’s not your contention, then you have to concede you had two all-time top players both in their primes AND a player, Draymond, who actually has impact data that’s even greater than Kevin Durant’s and is one of the greatest defenders of his generation AND a teammate in Iggy who one of the greatest wing defenders of his generation (it doesn’t have to do anything other than defend and shoot open threes) AND one of the greatest shooters and off ball movers in NBA history, in Klay Thompson.

LeBron had with him a couple of good, modestly positive impact players who never did much without LeBron.

Kyrie: -10.4 ON-OFF
KLove: -19.2 ON-OFF
JR Smith: -2.5 ON-OFF
TT: -16.7 ON-OFF

. Getting pulverized in 5 games is either a big underachievement or the Cavs were overrated to begin with because they were beating weak teams in the Eastern Conference in which case the massive +13 ON court in the playoffs is moot.

That +13 is AFTER playing 28% of his games and minutes versus the best team ever. Before that he was +18.

Also, LeBron faced “weak teams” and got to +18.6 (or +13 after playing the best team ever) while Jordan faced what to get to +7.55?

-1.06 SRS Bucks vs -.64 Pacers
+4.23 SRS Sixers vs.+3.65 Raptors
+5.41 SRS Pistons vs. +2.25 Celtics
Already lost vs. 11.35 SRS Warriors

If you weight them by number of games played:

Jordan faced an average of +3.42 SRS per game and was +7.55 estimated
LeBron faced an average of +4.45 SRS per game and was +13.0
Or for the East,LeBron faced an average of +1.79 SRS per game and was +18.6 on, +31.4 on-off

[OhayoKD]

The 2017 (and 2018) Cavs emphasized offense at the expense of defense.

In the 2017 Finals, Lebron put up gaudy offensive numbers in an extremely fast-paced series full of blowouts. And he played horrific defense. It was breakdown after breakdown for Lebron. I don't know how even fans of Lebron can watch and defend it. At times he played with no zero effort on thColts18 did some tracking of Jordan's defense during the 92 finals against Clyde Drexler, and Drexler shot better against MJ than he did against everyone else by a decent margin. He shot 41% overall, but against Jordan specifically shot 44% while he shot 38% against everyone else.e defensive end which is inexcusable.

Watch on YouTube

You can't even complain that the clips are cherrypicked. It's 23 minutes long!

one would be grasping at straws to consider a lot of these clips serving as James' defense hurting the team.

One would be grasping at straws to consider the very first clip as an example of James' defense hurting the team. How is Lebron staying with KD and funneling him towards a big bad defense? How is Lebron fighting through a screen from Steph to contest Durant a breakdown?

You cherrypicked 23 minutes from a 5-game series and a bunch of the plays here are a player scoring in-spite of good defense from Lebron. If that's the standard...

Colts18 did some tracking of Jordan's defense during the 92 finals against Clyde Drexler, and Drexler shot better against MJ than he did against everyone else by a decent margin. He shot 41% overall, but against Jordan specifically shot 44% while he shot 38% against everyone else.

we don't even need to "not cherrypick" 23 minutes to argue "Jordan's defense hurt his team"...

The 2017 (and 2018) Cavs emphasized offense at the expense of defense.
Meanwhile, LeBron had to be both the best offensive player and the best defensive player on his team.

Yeah, it was definitely "lebron" that made them proritize defense over offense, not 2 of their 3 best players being negatives defensively...



PS: The weakest rating, by far, came from a 1st-round sweep vs the negative srs Pacers(+3.4 srs eq). Opponent-adjusted they were pretty good vs the Warriors(+9.3 srs eq)

[Djoker]

.

Since you don't like the video, we have the defensive tracking numbers for Lebron in the 2017 Finals.
Cover your eyes!

.

I agree that Durant had a better supporting cast than Lebron. All you said regarding that is true.

However how do we reconcile the fact that Lebron is +18 ON court in the Eastern Conference and then gets pulverized in the Finals when the Cavs' odds going in were those of a slight underdog (+250) that was expected to be competitive and push the series to 6 or 7 games... The Cavs were anything but competitive. They got decimated in 3/5 games with Lebron on the court. And Lebron was terrible on defense and in the clutch.