Kawhi v.s Jordan v.s Shaq (peak only)

Moderators: Clyde Frazier, Doctor MJ, trex_8063, penbeast0, PaulieWal

Whose peak would be best today?

Kawhi
4
7%
Shaq
5
9%
Jordan
47
84%
 
Total votes: 56

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Re: Kawhi v.s Jordan v.s Shaq (peak only) 

Post#21 » by CobraCommander » Fri Nov 3, 2023 5:49 pm

70sFan wrote:Jordan
Shaq
Kawhi

in that order

In that exact order -

Peak Jordan would be MVP for the entire peak regardless of who is in the league

Shaq and Kawhi _ minus Jordan against today’s players MIGHT be MVP a few years...

But would peak Shaq get every MVP available if peak Jokic is his competition and it’s completely objective (not even sure we have seen peak Jokic btw)

Same with Kawhi...not sure peak Kawhi would be a prohibitive favorite for mvp this year if he was completely healthy and played 82 games...he would be in the running and definitely top 3 player but is he absolutely better than Jokic and Giannis ?
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Re: Kawhi v.s Jordan v.s Shaq (peak only) 

Post#22 » by McBubbles » Sat Nov 4, 2023 12:58 am

Hot take, I don't even think Composite Kawhi with 2014-15 defence, 2019 scoring and 2021 playmaking combined is the better than peak Jordan. His offense would still be clearly worse than peak Jordan's, not enough to overcome the improvement on defense imo.
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Re: Kawhi v.s Jordan v.s Shaq (peak only) 

Post#23 » by Heej » Sat Nov 4, 2023 3:08 am

Peak Kawhi would have an infinitely easier time guarding Jordan than Jordan would Kawhi imo. MJ couldn't even handle Magic in the post. Kawhi would put him in the torture chamber. Let alone how bad MJ was at defending movement shooters. People think it's Jordan and it's not even close but healthy Kawhi was always a problem. That comparison is a good bit closer than people are comfortable admitting
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Re: Kawhi v.s Jordan v.s Shaq (peak only) 

Post#24 » by ShaqAttac » Sat Nov 4, 2023 3:15 am

McBubbles wrote:Hot take, I don't even think Composite Kawhi with 2014-15 defence, 2019 scoring and 2021 playmaking combined is the better than peak Jordan. His offense would still be clearly worse than peak Jordan's, not enough to overcome the improvement on defense imo.

this is cap
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Re: Kawhi v.s Jordan v.s Shaq (peak only) 

Post#25 » by trex_8063 » Sat Nov 4, 2023 3:29 am

One_and_Done wrote:But you could as easily use 2019.


'19 Kawhi mailed it in on defense all thru the regular season, had a rather pedestrian +5.3 on/off in said rs (5th on the team, and the Raptors actually had a better win% without him), and he missed 22 games.


What penbeast0 said REALLY speaks to '19, imo:

penbeast0 wrote:If Kawhi put together health, offensive peak, and defensive peak, he would be in this conversation but I don't think he has ever managed that all.
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Re: Kawhi v.s Jordan v.s Shaq (peak only) 

Post#26 » by Cavsfansince84 » Sat Nov 4, 2023 3:49 am

Heej wrote:Peak Kawhi would have an infinitely easier time guarding Jordan than Jordan would Kawhi imo. MJ couldn't even handle Magic in the post. Kawhi would put him in the torture chamber. Let alone how bad MJ was at defending movement shooters. People think it's Jordan and it's not even close but healthy Kawhi was always a problem. That comparison is a good bit closer than people are comfortable admitting


I generally agree in terms of I don't think 2017 was that far behind either guy here. It's just that we didn't see enough out of him. If he had somehow beaten the Warriors that year or even pushed them to 6/7 games it would stand up as a great achievement in terms of peak seasons. As it is its harder to get a clear idea of how to compare him to other atg's who won titles or came close in peak seasons.
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Re: Kawhi v.s Jordan v.s Shaq (peak only) 

Post#27 » by O_6 » Sat Nov 4, 2023 6:28 am

MJ would essentially be full frontal light Kawhi 100% of the time with Morant rim aggression and much higher finishing. GOAT for a reason.

You guys underrate Shaq. If he wanted to be lighter to dominate he would.
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Re: Kawhi v.s Jordan v.s Shaq (peak only) 

Post#28 » by 70sFan » Sat Nov 4, 2023 6:57 am

Heej wrote:Peak Kawhi would have an infinitely easier time guarding Jordan than Jordan would Kawhi imo. MJ couldn't even handle Magic in the post. Kawhi would put him in the torture chamber. Let alone how bad MJ was at defending movement shooters. People think it's Jordan and it's not even close but healthy Kawhi was always a problem. That comparison is a good bit closer than people are comfortable admitting

You say that like Magic wasn't among the best post players in the league history...
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Re: Kawhi v.s Jordan v.s Shaq (peak only) 

Post#29 » by 1993Playoffs » Sat Nov 4, 2023 7:03 am

I don’t have Kawhi in the conversation with either.

MJ is clearly better offensively , Kawhi misses too many games in his peak anyway
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Re: Kawhi v.s Jordan v.s Shaq (peak only) 

Post#30 » by OhayoKD » Sat Nov 4, 2023 7:04 am

O_6 wrote:MJ would essentially be full frontal light Kawhi 100% of the time with Morant rim aggression and much higher finishing. GOAT for a reason.

You guys underrate Shaq. If he wanted to be lighter to dominate he would.

Better? Sure.

"Full frontal light?" No. For one, there's a pretty substantial defensive disparity:

Well no. Because for one, his defense is not nearly as good
Spoiler:
(if you want to check, 20 possessions are finished through 19:42 amd 40 are finished through 49:52)

Note it was very hard to make out players(besides pippen whose got a nasty case of roblox head), so i could be misattributing here and there though I used jersey numbers, names, commentator[url][/url]s, and head/body shapes the best i could. I also counted "splits" for both parties(which is why the numbers don't add up to 40)


Distribution went

Pippen/Grant
14 each

Purdue
6 or 7

Cartwright
4

Armstrong/Jordan
1 each

FWIW, Grant seemed more significantly more effective than Pippen but otoh, Pippen was trusted to deal with laimbeer far more than anyone else

All that aside, what's notable here is that it's the non-bigs who are checking rim threats the most. Not the centres. With one of the two deterring attempts, sometimes on an island, the rest of the team was enabled to try and force turnovers with suffocating pressure.

Fwiw, in this game, Pippen and Grant, the two defenders protecting the paint more than anyone, ended with 0 blocks. As did the centers who protected the paint more than anyone else. Jordan and Livingston ended with 2. And now BPM, unless I am misuderstanding the writeup, is giving bonus points to those 2 blocks on the assumption they're especially valuable. Here's what it's saying is an extra valuable play:
https://youtu.be/iZlw-GzD9AA?t=200

As we can see here, Jordan is not the rim defender. He stops the shot largely thanks to a bigger attacker occupying Aguire and thus distracting him from Jordan.


He probably wouldn't be considered GOAT if people weren't using blocks and steals to assess defense. Or if people weren't conflating goals/assists, sorry points/assists/rebounds with offensive goodness.
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Re: Kawhi v.s Jordan v.s Shaq (peak only) 

Post#31 » by O_6 » Sat Nov 4, 2023 7:11 am

Nah, MJ’s quickness makes up for Kawhi’s strength advantage by a lot. Kawhi is the best perimeter defender I’ve seen, the way he gets so low in his stance with his length/strength makes him look different from even his teammate PG who is more fluid. MJ’s offensive game is just insane though.
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Re: Kawhi v.s Jordan v.s Shaq (peak only) 

Post#32 » by OhayoKD » Sat Nov 4, 2023 7:34 am

O_6 wrote:Nah, MJ’s quickness makes up for Kawhi’s strength advantage by a lot.

Is that why the Bulls were defensively average when oakley left(with Jordan surrounded by defensive specialists), negative to start 90 and then elite when his teammates gained primacy before being(defensively) unaffected by his depature?
Kawhi is the best perimeter defender I’ve seen, the way he gets so low in his stance with his length/strength makes him look different from even his teammate PG who is more fluid.

Meh, man defense is overrated. Communication, help, and paint-protection are all more important, hence why the cold data has nuevo Pippen as or more valuable(even at 30):
https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?p=103591642#p103591642
For jordan, the big difference is, besides being a better defender, Kawhi is also
-> a better paint presence(albeit not at the top-end for wings)
-> gambles and to rack up steals(jordan was in the 20th quartile in error-rate by ben's tracking for his prime, kawhi's steals/team d-rating correlation is significantly stronger)
-> better in the post
-> makes more plays on the perimiter
-> better rebounder(similar to the effect evident in the tracking i posted above, smalls totals benefit from bigger players boxing out)

Kawhi is more or less the bigger, stronger, and more fundamentally sound pinnacle of Jordan's defensive archetype.

MJ’s offensive game is just insane though.

A fair bit less insane than his conventional box would suggest(cue arch-angel comparisons). Decision-making and playmaking(the quality of what you're creating also matters) are not at the top-tier, and he doesn't offer the perks of an on-court coach that players like Magic, Nash, and Lebron do(you might note those three have a massively disproportionate proportion of goat-level rs and playoff offenses). So...not too dissimilar from Clippers Kawhi. And, for the sake of this question, his finishing, passing, ball-handling and shooting are all lesser outliers relative to the league now than they were in the 80's/90's.

You bring up Ja Morant, but Ja Morant was not finishing or driving better than a near 40 year old Lebron last year because height and power are at a premium.

And there's the other bit where the amount of foreign talent doubled 6 years out from Jordan's retiremen. Now we are 30 years away.

So no, he's not full-frontal kawhi. Not even on offense.
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Re: Kawhi v.s Jordan v.s Shaq (peak only) 

Post#33 » by penbeast0 » Sat Nov 4, 2023 12:13 pm

I am glad you are here and willing to take, and much more importantly, back up your unconventional stands. It adds a lot to the discussion even when we disagree.
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Re: Kawhi v.s Jordan v.s Shaq (peak only) 

Post#34 » by tsherkin » Sat Nov 4, 2023 1:42 pm

Heej wrote: MJ couldn't even handle Magic in the post.


Magic, the dude who was 4" taller than him AND one of the best post scorers in the league? And arguably the greatest playmaker in league history? THAT Magic? You make it sound like guarding him was a trivial thing. Old Magic (like circa when MJ guarded him in the Finals) even had a three and primarily centered his game around the post... but he'd been smashing people there since his rookie season.

This is not a sensible criticism.

Kawhi is a very good scorer and he'd give MJ fits but he also isnt the same position, so he likely WOULDN'T guard him, rendering this an even more odd remark...
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Re: Kawhi v.s Jordan v.s Shaq (peak only) 

Post#35 » by MacGill » Sat Nov 4, 2023 2:31 pm

tsherkin wrote:
Heej wrote: MJ couldn't even handle Magic in the post.


Magic, the dude who was 4" taller than him AND one of the best post scorers in the league? And arguably the greatest playmaker in league history? THAT Magic? You make it sound like guarding him was a trivial thing. Old Magic (like circa when MJ guarded him in the Finals) even had a three and primarily centered his game around the post... but he'd been smashing people there since his rookie season.

This is not a sensible criticism.

Kawhi is a very good scorer and he'd give MJ fits but he also isnt the same position, so he likely WOULDN'T guard him, rendering this an even more odd remark...


This is the point to understand and something that seems to get lost in these discussions. Peak threads don't necessarily mean 1v1, it means add peak player to said team and all player/coaching strategies follow.

MJ was a generous 6'6 in shoes, a 2 guard versus a much taller and ultra crafty Magic. Would the game plan simply be to leave your best player, and largest O anchor to match up with him? Would someone really bank on 6'8 LBJ guarding peak 7'1 Shaq all game long? Of course not.

Every pro player can score on every pro player, but obviously there can only be one winner. Many in the league right now could perform better statiscally if given the green light. The fact that Kawhi could score on MJ is meaningless because the team is what matters. And in peak play, meaning per position and overall contribution to the team, you're not selecting the player who can perhaps cause fits to another player based on a hypothetical mismatch. Take Shaq & Hakeem. I've reviewed the full series with video years back but you'll see how much Hakeem doesn't actually guard Shaq on Defense in the post. Cause it wouldn't be a great coaching strategy, not to be confused with he couldn't guard him. And if this is your strategy, then you take Shaq 10 out of 10 times here. But per position, and contributing to both O & D with all facuets of the game in mind peak MJ edges out Shaq here, and I am a huge Shaq fan. Kawhi brought my Raps a chip and is no slouch but he isn't in the same tier as 2 of the ATG and most consensus top 10's.
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Re: Kawhi v.s Jordan v.s Shaq (peak only) 

Post#36 » by Djoker » Sat Nov 4, 2023 3:09 pm

OhayoKD wrote:
A fair bit less insane than his conventional box would suggest(cue arch-angel comparisons). Decision-making and playmaking(the quality of what you're creating also matters) are not at the top-tier, and he doesn't offer the perks of an on-court coach that players like Magic, Nash, and Lebron do(you might note those three have a massively disproportionate proportion of goat-level rs and playoff offenses). So...not too dissimilar from Clippers Kawhi. And, for the sake of this question, his finishing, passing, ball-handling and shooting are all lesser outliers relative to the league now than they were in the 80's/90's.

You bring up Ja Morant, but Ja Morant was not finishing or driving better than a near 40 year old Lebron last year because height and power are at a premium.

And there's the other bit where the amount of foreign talent doubled 6 years out from Jordan's retiremen. Now we are 30 years away.

So no, he's not full-frontal kawhi. Not even on offense.


You do realize that peak MJ has higher Box Creation and lower cTOV% in the playoffs than peak Lebron let alone peak Kawhi? And we are talking 1-year, 3-year, 6-year stretches that MJ's playmaking numbers look better than both. Hard to argue with more open shots created for teammates and fewer turnovers.

1-year Peak -- 1991 Jordan: 15.4 Box OC, 5.9% cTOV
3-year Peak -- 1989-1991 Jordan: 13.8 Box OC, 7.3% cTOV
6-year peak -- 1988-1993 Jordan: 12.4 Box OC, 7.2% cTOV

By the way Kawhi's best single year number is 9.5 Box OC... Not even close!

As for better offenses by whoever, you are quite frankly just making stuff up. The 1991/1992/1996/1997 Bulls have better rORtg in the regular season than any Lebron-led or Kawhi-led team. And 1992/1996/1997 are also ahead of any Magic-led team. The postseason data is way more noisy with small samples but Jordan's teams are still GOAT-level offensively in the postseason.
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Re: Kawhi v.s Jordan v.s Shaq (peak only) 

Post#37 » by OhayoKD » Sat Nov 4, 2023 5:59 pm

Djoker wrote:
OhayoKD wrote:
A fair bit less insane than his conventional box would suggest(cue arch-angel comparisons). Decision-making and playmaking(the quality of what you're creating also matters) are not at the top-tier, and he doesn't offer the perks of an on-court coach that players like Magic, Nash, and Lebron do(you might note those three have a massively disproportionate proportion of goat-level rs and playoff offenses). So...not too dissimilar from Clippers Kawhi. And, for the sake of this question, his finishing, passing, ball-handling and shooting are all lesser outliers relative to the league now than they were in the 80's/90's.

You bring up Ja Morant, but Ja Morant was not finishing or driving better than a near 40 year old Lebron last year because height and power are at a premium.

And there's the other bit where the amount of foreign talent doubled 6 years out from Jordan's retiremen. Now we are 30 years away.

So no, he's not full-frontal kawhi. Not even on offense.


You do realize that peak MJ has higher Box Creation and

And his regular-season box-creation/passer-rating(wierd how you always leave effiecny out) peaked in 1989 when he went and averaged a 30-point triple double as a psuedo-helio. And yet
jordan archangel, 13-11, +2 net, with a team that won 27 before he got there

Similar slashline to 2010 Lebron who in a similar situation went
lebron archangel, 11-0 +8 net with starters(- mo williams) that won at an 18-win pace(15 by record) without Lebron but with Mo-Williams


Please note this is a much larger sample than many of the on/off marks you like throwing.

Of course what you left out here is that similar advanced scoring numbers actually has Lebron's scoring peaking higher by a larger margin:
Spoiler:
991 certainly seems like an outlier for MJ on the playmaking front. If 1991 MJ isn't consider an outlier on the playmaking front, than neither should Lebron's 09 run as a scorer.

I'm also not certain how Play-Val is calculated over multi-year stretches, but the gap becomes really apparent when you look at 3-year stretches.

Lebron, Magic, and Nash are tied for #1 at +2.5 over 3-year PS PlayVal Peaks. They are the best of the best.

Jordan best 3-year PlaVal stretch is +1.9.

Per ScoreVal (Scoring value, an estimate of a player’s points per 100 impact from scoring only.), Lebron's best scoring run is in 14, where he is a +3.7. 09 Lebron is a +3.5. Both of these runs are better than any Jordan run by ScoreVal. I don't think you would argue Lebron is a better scorer than MJ, so I think you see where I am going with this.

The gap between them as scorers is actually smaller than the gap between them as playmakers, if we go by the ScoreVal/PlayVal Metrics.


Lebron has a a +.8 lead in Single-Year PS ScoreVal peaks.

Jordan only has a +.01 lead in Single-Year PS PlayVal peaks.


Lebron has a +.6 lead in 3-year PS PlayVal peaks.

Jordan has a +.4 lead in 3-year PS ScoreVal peaks.


Even if we were to compare basketball messi with basketball ronaldo using g/a for some reason...Lebron still looks better.
 

And of course goals/assists, sorry points/assists is a stupid way to compare a player who does far more outside of box-metrics offensively than Jordan does:
Djoker wrote:Many teams with heliocentric pieces show bigger declines when those players sit because those teams heavily rely on that one player for everything

When Lebron goes arch-angel(taking up even more up his plate), he takes weaker help to much higher heights.

When Jordan goes arch-angel, he takes better help to much lower heights.

Simply put, Jordan is alot worse at the point than Lebron is, because he's a much worse playmaker

Box-creation correlates better with offense than assists, but it this is still tied heavily to assists which...
https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?p=108172390#p108172390
("control f for "and that is all")
Can go up in spite of actual creation going down when playing in systems that produce easier passer-reads.

But hey, don't take my word for it, we can just check the results:
Spoiler:
Curry:
2015 +4 (RS) +4.1(PS)
2016 +7.9(RS)+5.7(PS)
2017 +6.8(RS)+11.6 (PS)
2018 + 5.0(RS)+6.5(PS)
2019 + 5.5(RS)+5.4 (PS)
average: 5.85 (RS) 6.6(PS)
combined average: +6.2

Lebron
2013 +6.4 (RS) +7.2 (PS)
2014 +4.2 (RS) +10.6 (PS)
2015 +5.5(RS) +5.5 (PS)
2016 +4.5(RS) +12.5 (PS)
2017 +4.8 (RS) +13.7 (PS)
Average +5.1(RS) +9.9 (PS)
combined average: +7.5

jordan* (i had to use his first 5 championship seasons)
1991 +6.7(RS) +11.7 (PS)
1992 +7.3(RS) +6.5 (PS)
1993 +4.9 (RS) +9.8 (PS)
1996 +7.6 (RS) +8.6 (PS)
1997 +7.7(RS) +6.5(PS)
average +6.85 (RS) +8.6(PS)
combined average:+7.7

nash

2005 suns. +8.4(RS) +17 (PS)
2006 suns +5.3(RS) +9.5 (PS)
2007 suns +7.4(RS)+7.6 (PS)
2008 suns. +5.8(RS) + 3.1 (PS)
2010 suns +7.7(RS) +13.4 (PS)
Average +6.9(RS) + 10.1 (PS)
combined average: +8.5

shaq

1998 +6.9(RS), +10.1(PS)
1999 +5.4(RS), +4.7(PS)
2000 +3.2(RS), +9.3(PS)
2001 +5.4 (RS) +13.6(PS)
2002 +4.9(RS), +6.4 (PS)
Average +5.2(RS) +8.8(PS)
combined average: +7

bird

1984 +3.3 (RS) +6.4 (PS)
1985 +4.9 (RS) +3.9 (PS)
1986 +4.6 (RS) + 8.3 (PS)
1987 +5.2 (RS) + 8.7 (PS)
1988 +7.4 (RS) +4.2 (PS)
average +5.1(RS) +6.3(PS)
combined average: +5.7

magic

1986 +6.1(RS) +6.7
1987 +7.6 (RS) +10.7
1988 +5.1(RS) +8.3
1989 +6 (RS) +9.3
1990 +5.9(RS) +8.4
Average +6.1(RS), + 8.7 (PS)
combined average: +7.4

Keep in mind Jordan-less offenses were better than Lebron-less ones.

Yet, just like Magic and Nash, these players Jordan allegedly created as many shots for(On better cTOV!) led much better offenses with Magic and Lebron doing it in a variety of contexts.


It's almost like a player having lower cTOV when they face less defensive attention and handle the ball way less(thereby doing less to breakdown defenses before the end of a possession) doesn't actually mean you have better "turnover economy".

IOW:
O_6 wrote:
MJ’s offensive game is just insane though.

A fair bit less insane than his conventional box would suggest(cue arch-angel comparisons). Decision-making and playmaking(the quality of what you're creating also matters) are not at the top-tier, and he doesn't offer the perks of an on-court coach that players like Magic, Nash, and Lebron do

Jordan could not and did not "do everything lebron can do", as Mo-Williams, as well as the cold-hard numbers, can attest.

Not even in the 90's. Not even in a much weaker league where nearly all of his strengths were bigger outliers.
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Re: Kawhi v.s Jordan v.s Shaq (peak only) 

Post#38 » by tihsad » Sat Nov 4, 2023 10:37 pm

Greatly enjoyed Kawhi's peak and prime when he was able to regularly play, but this rings dimly of "peak Kobe v. Jordan v. Shaq" circa 2010. Or the incoming, lesser, soft reboot "peak Doncic v. Jordan v. Shaq." Please stop.
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Re: Kawhi v.s Jordan v.s Shaq (peak only) 

Post#39 » by OhayoKD » Sat Nov 4, 2023 10:41 pm

tihsad wrote:Greatly enjoyed Kawhi's peak and prime when he was able to regularly play, but this rings dimly of "peak Kobe v. Jordan v. Shaq" circa 2010. Or the incoming, lesser, soft reboot "peak Doncic v. Jordan v. Shaq." Please stop.

Why?
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Re: Kawhi v.s Jordan v.s Shaq (peak only) 

Post#40 » by tihsad » Sat Nov 4, 2023 11:12 pm

OhayoKD wrote:
tihsad wrote:Greatly enjoyed Kawhi's peak and prime when he was able to regularly play, but this rings dimly of "peak Kobe v. Jordan v. Shaq" circa 2010. Or the incoming, lesser, soft reboot "peak Doncic v. Jordan v. Shaq." Please stop.

Why?


You most certainly don't have to, and if you consider it a reasonable debate follow through with it. I just don't see this one no matter the degree of mental gymnastics.
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