IceColdCubano wrote:I am going to wait until the end of the season/post season to make a full assessment on Damien Lillard production this year. He still has those sporadic games that are Lillard esq, but they are farther between when they come than the previous season.
I didn't know how to explain the situation, is he unhappy and that's why his play has dipped or is like most predicted he will ultimately face what all small guards deal with in father time, and wear and tear. So I did some digging out of curiosity.
Milwaukee: 25.1pts(22%drop), 4.3rebs(10%drop), 6.8ast(9%drop), @42.2 FG%(9%drop), @34.3 3P%(8%drop), 28.5 usage(17.5%drop), 35.3 MIN(2%drop)
Portland: 32.2pts, 4.8rebs, 7.3ast, @46.3 FG%, 37.1 3P%, 34.2 usage, 36.3 MIN
I used percentage increases and decreases instead of just doing subtracting the difference because I wanted to see correlation between usage rate drop and minute drop to the percent drop in other areas.
What we see here is that he is only had a 2% minute drop from last season, however the biggest thing is usage here where he is at a 17.5% drop in usage which is tied to production. Assist and Rebounding is almost identical in loss of production at 9-10% which correlates to the system where he is towered by a good center in Brook Lopez & Giannis who are also solid passers, so that is expected the minute difference is not big enough to explain the drop however the players around him does. The difference between point per game and Usage rate are high and a difference of 4.5-5% that difference there can be explained from the efficiency loss both on FG% & 3P% having dropped at 8-9%.
Now lets look at how many shots he is putting up, last season in Portland he put up 1202 total shots divided by 58 games played = He was putting up 20.7 shots per game, or he was putting up a shot for every 1.75 minute on the floor.
So far this season in Milwaukee he has shot 790 total shots divided by 45 games played = He is at 17.5 shots per game or putting up a shot every 2 minutes on the floor.
I looked at the pace of the Portland trailblazers last year vs Milwaukee this year and guess what the percentage margin of 2% difference with Portland playing quicker coincides with why Lillard is putting up less shots per minute on the floor adding the usage rate with the ball complete explains his drop in scoring from a total standpoint.
So far his drop in PPG, Rebounding, Assist, are all correlated to Usage rate, Minute played, shots created per minute on the floor, and team pace, aswell as team mates being bigger and far better at passing/rebounding.
The only thing, that is not explained, is the efficiency of those shots dropped, we can hypotheses perhaps he needs the ball more in order to get more rhythm and get better looks than what he has been getting, as a coach I would look to get him more usage, and see if that improves the overall team aspect, However in Milwaukee Giannis touches that ball a lot so that could be hard to change over night.
That’s simply what it is tbh, nothing more. Hes in an entirely new role and not near as involved as he was in Portland. If he was still in Portland he would be putting up massive numbers, hell if he was here he’d be putting up massive numbers and taking 20 shots a night and we’d be at minimum the 2 seed right now.
As for efficiency that’s all tied in to what you’re saying above as well, ball isn’t in his hands as much as he’s used to and he’s not finding the same rhythm he’s had because of it. This is an entirely new role for him playing so much off ball. But yes I’m sure life, divorce, etc. play into it a little as well