ItsDanger wrote:ForeverTFC wrote:
The author is interpreting the results incorrectly and your generalization is just wrong.
Majority of his trade ups that have worked have been for 1-2 spots and in the early lottery. HE throws in 3 trade ups that worked outside this range but this is just noise. As he showcased, trading up/down later in the draft actually shows little/no correlation; picking an arbitrary 20th pick line to say trading down from there is better is simply noise.
The data simply shows that trade ups in the lottery have been successful but that the team trading up is usually going up 1-2 spots and needs a lottery pick of their own to give up. Any larger gap or any later in the draft, it's a complete crapshoot and random.
And to your characterization of what the Raptors have done: the Raptors have not had a lottery pick in the recent past outside Scottie and Gradey. They tried to trade up during the Gradey draft for Cason and had a deal in place w/ Orlando but were beaten to it one spot above the Orlando pick by OKC who had an earlier pick to give up (number 12) to the Mavs. They also tried to trade up for SGA but did not have a lottery pick to give up which the study shows to be necessary when trading up in the lottery in the draft.
It's just an article for reference, I didn't sign off on anything. And my "generalization" re:pricing is accurate, there are several transaction types available, of which, they do not participate in, while other teams often do. Your own picks, whether lottery or not, is only one piece.
But you were referencing the article to support the case for movement the transactions around draft day.
Which doesnt really seem to have any data to support and seems to only satisfy the desire to just see things happen
