Is 2009 LeBron statistically the best season ever?

[CodeBreaker]

Kobe was better in 09 after showing Bron how to beat Orlando when it matters. Basketball is played on the court and you have to win, not on stats sheet.

[PistolPeteJR]

Kobe was better in 09 after showing Bron how to beat Orlando when it matters. Basketball is played on the court and you have to win, not on stats sheet.

If you mean the 2009 LAKERS were better than the 2009 CAVALIERS, you would be right.

[Joao Saraiva]

Kobe was better in 09 after showing Bron how to beat Orlando when it matters. Basketball is played on the court and you have to win, not on stats sheet.

Wow. Is this myth going on? I mean, I can accept it is on facebook or something, but don't we write/read about basketball everyday?

LeBron played better than Kobe vs Orlando. The Cavs lost? Yes. There was a mismatch all over the floor.

Cle usually ran two bigs - big Z, Wallace, Varejao and Hickson. None of them could stop prime Dwight Howard - Wallace was the best one but he wasn't prime Wallace anymore. He had a lot less height and he ended up having foul trouble, injuries and played 14 minutes per game....

Orlando played Lewis at the PF spot - this created a very difficult mismatch as Cle's bigs were not following him on the perimeter. His 3 PT shot was definitely a big factor in that series.

Orlando had a lot of success running Turkoglu and Pietrus on the wings... because one of them had to be defended by Delonte. There was a huuuge height difference. Pietrus had the series of a lifetime.

In the finals it was diferent. Lakers got away being much more physical on Dwight than big Z, Varejao or Hickson could. Odom was a a fundamental defender in that series, and Ariza to. They were bigger than Cavs' defenders, and also a lot more mobile. That's ideal when going against a guy like Lewis or a big guard like Pietrus or wing like Turkoglu.


I mean, I can accept LeBron had a subpar game 6 vs Orlando. He also had historic performances in G1 and G5. Fantastic G2. He was definitely not the problem and not why Cleveland lost the series.

[PistolPeteJR]

Kobe was better in 09 after showing Bron how to beat Orlando when it matters. Basketball is played on the court and you have to win, not on stats sheet.

Wow. Is this myth going on? I mean, I can accept it is on facebook or something, but don't we write/read about basketball everyday?

LeBron played better than Kobe vs Orlando. The Cavs lost? Yes. There was a mismatch all over the floor.

Cle usually ran two bigs - big Z, Wallace, Varejao and Hickson. None of them could stop prime Dwight Howard - Wallace was the best one but he wasn't prime Wallace anymore. He had a lot less height and he ended up having foul trouble, injuries and played 14 minutes per game....

Orlando played Lewis at the PF spot - this created a very difficult mismatch as Cle's bigs were not following him on the perimeter. His 3 PT shot was definitely a big factor in that series.

Orlando had a lot of success running Turkoglu and Pietrus on the wings... because one of them had to be defended by Delonte. There was a huuuge height difference. Pietrus had the series of a lifetime.

In the finals it was diferent. Lakers got away being much more physical on Dwight than big Z, Varejao or Hickson could. Odom was a a fundamental defender in that series, and Ariza to. They were bigger than Cavs' defenders, and also a lot more mobile. That's ideal when going against a guy like Lewis or a big guard like Pietrus or wing like Turkoglu.


I mean, I can accept LeBron had a subpar game 6 vs Orlando. He also had historic performances in G1 and G5. Fantastic G2. He was definitely not the problem and not why Cleveland lost the series.

Add in that Wallace got hurt during the season and was never the same as pre-injury, even that year.

[OhayoKD]

Spoiler:

I think there are arguments to be had for Russell, Kareem(and by extension 77 Walton) on a "corp" or "era-relative impact" lens, but with what you seem to be looking at(box-score playing a factor, post-merger years), yeah. Do not think there is much of a "statistical"counter-case. If we look at the seasons you've picked:

Other’s candidates include 88-91 MJ . 67 Wilt , Curry 16 etc

2016 Curry? No, not really. For those tempted to toss 1-year rapm or rapm derivatives as positive evidence they're similar...

(disclaimer: getting the best, the second best, or the third best season isn't significant inofitself. At a certain treshold, adjusted stuff starts misattributing value, if you want to distingush between single-season, you need to get into the weeds. What's note-worthy is how frequently a player scores near or at the top, and how you look over extended samples. RAPM is great for establishing a baseline of value, not deciding if 2004 kg is more valuable than 2016 draymond)

As far as baseline goes(cheema's been used a bunch, so why don't we use the scaled-apm set Ben likes)

James is, arguably, the king of overall plus-minus stats. 2018 is the 25th season of league-wide plus-minus data, which covers nearly 40 percent of the shot-clock era and touches 12 of the top-20 players on this list. None have achieved LeBron’s heights: He holds four of the top-five scaled APM seasons on record, and six of the top eight. Since 2007, 10 of his 11 years land in the 99th percentile.

Even 15-17 regular-season Lebron grades out as a direct rival for 15-17 Steph by raw or adjusted data(1-year is directly comparable to), even with something relatively bearish on Lebron like shotcharts:
https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?p=106319069#p106319069

Getting into the "weeds" of 2009...

Like Nash, LeBron was supercharging dependent talent — finishers who disproportionately benefited from shots served to them on a silver platter. So with his talents in South Beach, Cleveland crumbled in 2011. While most teams fall off after losing a superstar, none imploded like the Lebron-less Cavs; in 21 games with a similar group of players, they played at an anemic 18-win pace (-8.9 SRS) before injuries ravaged their lineup. LeBron’s not worth 40 wins on a typical club, but no player in history has correlated more strongly with such massive, worst-to-first impact.

FWIW over a small sample(7 gms/szn) the 08-10 cavs played like a 19-win team) in games without Lebron. Perhaps more impressively, during 09/10, in 1785 minutes without Mo-Willams(best offensive teammate) and Ben Wallace(best defensive teammate), the cavs were +14. For a smaller-sample, in 630 minutes without either in 09, they were +10.

Over a much smaller sample(a bit under 700 minuites) 15/16 Steph holds up surprisingly well but not that well with his lineups scoring at +8.55 without Dray and +9 in 389 minutes without dray or klay. Note that these are much shorter stretches. Curry's minutes are significantly more tied to his best teammates than LeBron's are. Very small sample, but for comphrensiveness, in less than 300 minutes in 2016, Steph lineups score at +3.38 without Dray and(tiny 169 minute sample) -0.69 without Draymond or Klay.

And then we get into volume

(Lebron)


(Steph)

All considered I'd say there's an the evidence consistently supports 2009 Lebron being more valuable per-possession in the regular season. He's probably more valuable in 2010 too. And probably a peer in in his second Cleveland stint while coasting. And we know the postseason is not a winning case for Steph:


(Check where Steph's best teammate is)

Jordan's argument is probably weaker(though he benefits from uncertainty). He's drafted onto a better team(27-win without) and does not lead a better regular-season team until 1992 despite great fit by the back-half of 90.

Frankly, while one could point to conventional box-score as a marginal rs advantage, I think we should apply some context here.

Steph(and Jordan) created(volume) and scored at a nigh unprecedented level. Lebron also did that, but was also a strong secondary paint-protector, a mj-esque man defender(refer to the colts quote before), who was communicating and orchestrating on both-ends, was a more effecient creator(feel free to reference ben's passer-rating), handled the ball significantly more(making the turnover economy very impressive), and was facing substantially more defensive attention.

Then by box he(2009) blows right by both in the postseason(bpm/aupm/pipm/raptor). All considered, I think the "stats" are very clearly in Lebron's favor. And who knows how in his favor they'd be with a more reasonable(imo) set of weightings(BBR BPM puts jordan and steph within range of hakeem and dikembe respectively).

There are a great deal of explanations offered for this. My favorite? He played(much) better basketball.

Was just thinking of that season and it’s really crazy how a 22-23 year old nearly won 70 games with a non elite cast. And then in the playoffs he played
even better he had like a 37 PER in the POs I think

Yes. Career highest in WS, VORP, BPM and PER

The cast wasn't elite, but it was constructed well for what their goal was. An oversized front court that helped make them a top 3 defense and a laad of shooters to spread the floor. Ilgaulskas, Verajao, Hickson and Wallace all stuffed the paint while Mo Williams averaged 18/4/3 on 47/44/91 shooting. Szczerbiak, Gibson, West, Pavlovic were all right at 40% shooting from behind the arc as well.

Important piece of context though. Ben Wallace got injured and missed 29 games. Moreover, for the 53 games he played he was only at 23 minutes per-game. So that -5 defense largely accomplished without Lebron's best defensive teammate. The next year they would hit -3.5 with no Wallace and as you can see above, over pretty substantial samples, the cavs being really good was not contingent on Lebron sharing the floor with his best teammates. It was pretty excellent fit(though that's not really different for the Jordan, Steph, or Wilt "candidates" the op lists).[/quote]

[ardee]

It may well be, primarily because of the Playoffs. For the RS 2013 LeBron has a hell of a case. Equal in PER and WS/48 but significantly better efficiency.

Also think 2023 Jokic should at least be mentioned. A hair away from averaging a triple-double while almost shooting 60/40/80 splits (he DID have 70% TS).... His box-score advanced stats are on par with 2009 LeBron's and his On/Off was actually higher.

[OhayoKD]

It may well be, primarily because of the Playoffs. For the RS 2013 LeBron has a hell of a case. Equal in PER and WS/48 but significantly better efficiency.

Also think 2023 Jokic should at least be mentioned. A hair away from averaging a triple-double while almost shooting 60/40/80 splits (he DID have 70% TS).... His box-score advanced stats are on par with 2009 LeBron's and his On/Off was actually higher.

Per is ommitting alot, like the fact Lebron was taking out way more defenders per-possession, Lebron having much bigger defensive impact, ect. 2009 is also the best turnover economy season ever.

On/off is also not the end-all be-all of impact. Over actual games Lebron's cavs consistently looked much much much worse over full-games and over RAPM early cleveland cooks Miami

Edit: I just realized I accidently bumped this trying to copy and paste something.

Sorry mods

[ShotCreator]

in my opinion yes. Colts18 has had this argument laid out in its favor for a decade, if you’re interested. As a Laker fan, before I got into basketball on a micro level - I didn’t even think he was the best player that season. How times and views change

I already made a thread before on Shaq's case for the GOAT peak, now here is LeBron 2009's case for the GOAT peak. I'll highlight his stats, defense, team success, playoffs, clutch, 4th quarter, and teammates to show why he has a case for the GOAT peak.


Stats:
28-8-7, .591 TS%, 9.3 RAPM (1st)

31.7 PER (4th all-time), .318 WS/48 (6th all-time)

LeBron led his team in points, assists, rebounds, blocks, and steals becoming only the 4th player in history to accomplish that feat.

Team Success:
66-16 (.805)
+8.68 SRS (8.83 when LeBron played, 6th in the 3 point era)
112.4 Offensive Rating
102.4 Defensive Rating
+10.0 efficiency differential (4th in NBA history)

On court: +15.0
Off court: -6.2 off court (equivalent to this year’s Suns)
Net: +21.2 plus/minus

Top 10 total on court plus/minus since 1997:
1. 09 James +871
2. 97 Jordan +818
3. 97 Pippen +807
4. 08 Pierce +784
5. 03 Nowitzki +778
6. 97 Hornacek +775
7. 97 Malone +768
8. 07 Duncan +746
9. 08 Garnett +737
10. 00 Shaq +706


Best plus/minus since 2008:
1. 09 James +21.83
2. 09 Paul +19.65
3. 12 Griffin +18.65
4. 11 Pierce +17.75
5. 10 Durant 16.80
6. 09 Odom +16.63
7. 10 James +16.61

From 08-10, LeBron missed 14 games. Here are the results:
With: .737 win% +5.81 MOV
Without: 1-13 (.071 win%) (-7.68 MOV)
Difference: .666 win%, +13.67 MOV

Defense:

On court: 100.6 D rating (-7.7 relative to league average)
Off court: 108.8 D rating (+0.5 rel to LA)
Difference: -8.2 (According to BasketballValue.com, that difference is the 2nd highest in the league behind Pryzbilla)

The Cavs went from #1 D in the league with LeBron on the court to the equivalent of 18th when he left.

6.5 Defensive win shares (#2 in the league, only SF with more in a season are Pippen and Havlicek)

10.4 opponent counterpart PER according to 82games (equivalent to this year Alonzo Gee and Francisco Garcia)
82games also has opponent SF scoring 12.8 pts/36 and .525 TS% vs LeBron while opposing PF scored 13.3 pts/36 and .484 TS% when LeBron played PF.

Top 5 in on court defensive rating in 2009 (min. 2000 MP):
1. West: 99.2
2. LeBron 100.6
3. Odom 101.4
4. Turkoglu 101.4
5. Howard 101.8

LeBron is also 3rd in FG%, 4th in 3P%, and 3rd in eFG%.

Here is what some of the top SF of 2009 did vs LeBron offensively (their regular season per 36 in parenthesis)

Durant- 16.4 PPG, .518 TS% (23.3 PPG, .577 TS%)
Pierce- 18.1 PPG, .474 TS% (19.7 PPG, .582 TS%)
Johnson- 13.7 PPG, .475 TS% (19.5 PPG, .534 TS%)
Carmelo- 15.8 PPG, .488 TS% (23.8 PPG, .532 TS%)
Butler- 14.2 PPG, .438 TS% (19.4 PPG, .552 TS%)
Gay- 10.9 PPG, .357 TS% (18.3 PPG, .528 TS%)
Average dropoff: -5.8 PPG, -9.3 TS%

What’s amazing is that when faced Cleveland and LeBron was off the court, they dominated:

The 6 SF’s stats when (Per 36):
LeBron on court: 15.1 PPG, .461 TS%, 3.3 Reb, 3.6 AST-3.4 TOV, -9.4 +/-
LeBron off court: 24.6 PPG, .596 TS%, 5.9 Reb, 2.3 AST-1.8 TOV, +0.9 +/-

That is a 9.5 points per 36 and 13.5 TS% difference. In the playoffs, LeBron continued playing elite man defense. Here are how some of his guys did when LeBron was on the court (per 36 minutes):

Tayshaun Prince: 3.9 PPG, .260 TS%
Joe Johnson: 15.3 PPG, .480 TS%
Marvin Williams: 5.8 PPG, .337 TS%
Dropoff from regular season averages: -7.6 PPG, -18.1 TS%

Defensive stats from Hoopsstats.com for his position:
17.3 pts/game allowed (1st in league) (13.2 points per 36 minutes)
41.2 FG% allowed (1st)
15.1 FGA allowed (2nd fewest)
16.6 Efficiency allowed (1st)
1.3 Offensive rebounds allowed (3rd)

+2.8 Defensive RAPM [2nd among qualifying perimeter players (Artest)]

4th Quarter:
LeBron averaged 32 Points, 8.4 Rebounds, 7 Assists, .596 TS% per 36 minutes in the 4th quarter. When LeBron was on the court in the 4th, the Cavs had a 121.2 O Rating, 96.6 D rating (+24.6 Net). He had an absurd 44.1 Assist% in the 4th (equivalent to this year’s John Wall assist%).

In the playoffs he averaged 32-10-8, .574 TS%, 113.8 on court O rating, 98.7 D rating in the 4th quarter. His assist% in the 4th was 48% which is right around NBA Assist leader Greivis Vasquez current assist%.

Highest 4th quarter on court plus/minus from 1997 to 2013:
1. 09 James +265
2. 13 James +242 Pro-rated (Currently at +207)
3. 03 Marbury +220
4. 11 Korver +219
5. 09 Williams +212
6. 02 George +211
7. 04 Garnett +208
8. 11 Bosh +199

The Cavs were +265 (+24.5 per 100 possessions) in the 4th with LeBron on court and -97 (-13.17 per 100) without LeBron in the 4th quarter which gives LeBron a +37.7 plus/minus in the 4th quarter.

Offense:

On court: 115.6 (+7.3 relative to league average)
Off court: 102.6 (-5.7 relative to league average)
Net: +13.0 (2nd highest behind CP3).

The offense went from the equivalent of the 87 Lakers offense to the 2nd worst offense in the league in the minutes LeBron missed. The Cavs had a 39.3 3P% in 2009 which is the 12th best in history with the extended 3 point line.

Clutch:

Clutch stats (per 48): 56-13-13, 4 stl, 2 blk, .693 TS%

In the clutch, LeBron’s on court Offensive rating was 135.1 O rating, 89.5 D rating (+45.5 Net).

In the playoffs LeBron averaged 58-18-8, .696 TS%, 139.6 on court O rating, +30.5 per 48 minutes in the clutch.

Top 10 teams in clutch per 100 possessions since 1997:


2009 Cavaliers: +39.9
2013 Heat: +33.7
2011 Mavericks: +29.5
2007 Mavericks: +29.0
2006 Clippers: +27.1
2010 Cavaliers: +26.4
1998 Lakers: +26.2
1999 Magic: +25.7
2008 Cavaliers: +24.2
2004 Pacers: +23.4

LeBron is up there with Dirk in terms of GOAT clutch players.

Playoffs:

Averaged 35-9-7, .618 TS%. His 37.4 PER and .399 WS/48 are both the best in playoff history. He had a 128 O rating and 100 D rating in the playoffs. Michael Jordan has never beaten either of those numbers in a single playoff.

First 2 rounds:

In the first 2 rounds, LeBron averaged 33-10-7, .644 TS%, 139 O Rating, 90 D rating while rocking an absurd 6 turnover% and 35 usage%. LeBron controlled the game like no one has in those 2 rounds. LeBron had a 117.2 on Court offensive Rating (+9.4 relative to opponent) and 92.4 D Rating (-16.0 relative to opponent ), which gave him a +24.8 on court plus/minus. The Cavs/LeBron played elite defense in the first 2 round.

LeBron had a 43.6 PER in the first 2 rounds (46.8 PER vs. Hawks). To put that into perspective, from 1993-1998, Michael Jordan’s highest PER in a series was 35.0.

Vs Orlando:
Against the #1 defense in the league, LeBron averaged 39-8-8, .591 TS%. The Cavs had a 112.9 O rating when he was on the court. That is a +11.0 offense relative to Orlando’s regular season D rating. That would be a historic offensive playoff performance.

In 2 of Cleveland’s losses, LeBron’s on court plus/minus was positive. That means the Cavs outscored the Magic in those games, but the Cavs bench gave up the lead when LeBron was sitting.

LeBron was amazing because of his foul drawing prowess in that series. He drew 64 fouls in that series.

09 LeBron vs. Magic: 64 fouls drawn in 6 games
06 Wade vs. Mavs: 63 fouls drawn in 6 games

So he was as good as Wade who had ref help in terms of drawing fouls.

Here are the highest fouls drawn per game in the playoffs (min. 2 series) since 2006:
1. 09 LeBron 10.1
2. 10 Howard 9.7
3. 06 Duncan 9.2
4. 09 Howard 8.9
5. 08 LeBron 8.8


Teammates:

LeBron’s accomplishments are impressive when you factor his mediocre supporting cast. In the Orlando series, LeBron had 3 teammates who averaged 10+ PPG. But they combined for a .505 TS%. In the playoffs LeBron had a 37.4 PER and the 2nd best PER on his team had a 14.5 PER. That’s a 22.9 PER gap which is the highest in NBA history between the #1 and #2 guy. Of course I have to mention how his teammates collapsed when he wasn’t there to bail him out.
 

Biggest SRS dropoff in history:
1. 99 Bulls -15.82 (MJ/Pippen/Rodman)
2. 11 Cavs -15.05 (LeBron)
3. 97 Spurs -13.91 (Drob injured)
4. 91 Nuggets -11.88 (English)
5. 83 Rockets -10.73 (Moses)

If you look at some of LeBron’s highest minutes played guys, they have fallen off without LeBron.

Big Z- Out of the league 1 year later
Mo Williams- Went from 2nd option to 6th man the next year
Delonte West- Out of the league
Varejao- Same player, but injury prone
Ben Wallace- Out of the league
Wally- 2009 was his final year, out of the league
Pavlovic- 10th man after he left Cleveland
Boobie Gibson- Bench player
Joe Smith- Out of the league
Hickson- Became one of the worst players in the league before bouncing back this year

One day people will look back and be amazed that LeBron won 66 games with Mo Williams and Delonte West as his #2 and #3 options

Sometimes the right answer is simple. That was probably, the best season ever played.


Even guys I think have better offensive skill sets can't scale their offensive games up to that kind of volume. No at-will against any opponent anyway.

The defense is probably what seals it as the best season ever though. Nearly 100 games of shut out defense. Turning every wing in the league into an inefficient blackhole. On top of the help D, and transition D.

No gimmicks to the season on any level. Just a pure raw, dominant season in every way.

[1993Playoffs]

It may well be, primarily because of the Playoffs. For the RS 2013 LeBron has a hell of a case. Equal in PER and WS/48 but significantly better efficiency.

Also think 2023 Jokic should at least be mentioned. A hair away from averaging a triple-double while almost shooting 60/40/80 splits (he DID have 70% TS).... His box-score advanced stats are on par with 2009 LeBron's and his On/Off was actually higher.

I fell Jokic is going to max out at the Magic/Bird tier due his defensive shortcomings