"If Ayton had any value he would be gone already." Some of us might agree with this statement, but I don't think this is actually true from the perspective of Portland's management and coaching staff. While I am not sure they still see Ayton as a long-term piece, we have no indications that they don't like him.
And I think it would take at least a 1st (or equivalent young prospect) to get Portland to move on Ayton now. Again, most here will agree that a 1st is overvaluing Ayton, but I feel generally confident that the Blazers management isn't among that bunch. And I think Portland ownership appreciates that he raises this team's floor ("we want to be bad, but not unwatchably bad.").
I certainly think he is available if the Blazers are incentivized, but the team still values his talent (and he does have raw talent), and cap space a year or two sooner is likely not going to be sufficient incentive at this juncture.
This is well stated, there is no incentive for POR to trade Ayton right now UNLESS a young player or pick was coming back and POR does not have financial pressure to incentivize them to trade him. Now next year when he is an expiring contract and not part of their plans (provided Clingan has shown he is ready), you could see him dealt for expiring\short term contracts and something like a 2nd or pick swap, but if he is being dealt this year it will be because a team offered something of value that made it worthwhile.
Not to mention, in terms of value, it's not Brown that Toronto is really giving up, it's Poetl.
Poetl is about 3yrs older than Ayton
Poetl's contract is for 3yrs (age 32 when hitting FA) vs. Ayton\2yrs (age 28 when hitting FA)
Ayton is the better player, on the court irrespective of salary
Ayton: 16 & 11 LY, career 16 & 10
Poetl: 11 & 8 LY, career 8 & 6
But this is a thread about a hypothetical where Ayton does in fact get traded, so what good is it to repeat over and over again that Portland won't trade him? What is it from the teams involved that you would want that would bridge gap of your perceived value of Ayton? Do you think Toronto owes a first here?
Pick compensation (future protected 1st) or a young player back that POR likes (Dick\Walter\Mogbo, not sure who they would prefer, both Dick\Walter had some rumored interest from POR).
Maybe they have interest in repatriating their own 25' pick?