cdubbz wrote:5 games today baby!!
Mystics vs Dream is definitely interesting to me because Mystics own the Dream draft pick.
Sky are facing the
Lynx and will most likely lose. Mystics have a better shot at the Paige Bueckers sweepstakes if they had both lottery picks.
The two previous season records for lottery picks are really close between the 2nd, 3rd and 4th best odds RN
LA 24-53 44.2
DAL 31-47 27.6
ATL 31-46 17.4
CHI 31-46 10.4
and the playoffs are
WAS 13-24
CHI 13-24
ATL 12-25
DAL 9-29
LA 7-30
Chicago is also 31-46 but if they miss the playoffs presumably they'd also have a worse 2 year record than WAS/ATL
So ideally for Washington, Dallas passes by one of the two teams above them, so they'd have the second best combined odds
RN the final schedule for both teams is
Dallas: AT IND, AT LV
WAS: VS ATL, VS NY, VS IND
ATL: AT WAS, VS CHI, AT NY
CHI: VS PHX, AT ATL, AT CON
WAS has the tiebreaker vs CHI so if they finish with the same record than Washington will make it there are various situations at play
1. WAS wins out, doesn't matter what the others do, they make the playoffs RESULT: WASHINGTON
2. WAS Goes 2-1, ATL goes 3-0 (beating WAS), CHI goes 2-1 (losing to WAS), everyone is at 15-25; H2H records between one team and the other 2 are as follows, Washington 6-3 total (3-1 Vs CHI, 3-2 Vs ATL), Chicago 3-5 (1-3 Vs CHI, 2-2 Vs ATL), Atlanta 4-5 (2-3 Vs WAS, 2-2 Vs CHI) Washington has the tiebreaker if they all tie at 15-25 RESULT: WASHINGTON
3. WAS Goes 2-1, ATL goes 3-0 (beating WAS), Chicago goes 1-2 or 0-3, Washington and Atlanta tie at 15-25, H2H is tied at 2-2 so we move into the next record which is in conference games, Washington would be 8-12, and Atlanta would be 7-13 therefore WAS has the tiebreaker RESULT: WASHINGTON
4. WAS Goes 2-1, ATL goes 2-1 or worse, CHI goes 3-0, tiebreaker: Washington leads Chicago 3-1, RESULT: WASHINGTON
5. WAS goes 2-1, ATL goes 2-1 or worse, and Chicago goes 2-1, both Chicago and Washington tie at 15-25, Washington has the H2H tiebreaker at 3-1 vs CHI, RESULT: WASHINGTON
6. WAS goes 2-1, ATL goes 2-1 or worse, and Chicago goes 1-2 or 0-3. Washington alone at 15-25 RESULT: WASHINGTON
7. WAS goes 1-2, ATL goes 3-0, Chicago goes 2-1 (losing to Washington). Both Chicago and Washington tie at 15-25, Tiebreaker between them would be tied at a 2-2 record, so it would go to conference record. CHI 6-14 VS ATL 7-13 RESULT: ATLANTA
8. WAS goes 1-2, ATL goes 3-0 and Chicago goes 1-2 or 0-3. Atlanta Alone at 15-25 RESULT: ATLANTA
9. WAS goes 1-2, ATL goes 2-1, and Chicago goes 3-0(beating ATL), Chicago Alone at 15-25 RESULT: CHI
10. WAS goes 1-2 (losing to ATL), ATL goes 2-1(losing to CHI, Beating Washington), and Chicago goes 2-1(beating ATL) everyone tied at 14-26, H2H records between one team and the other 2 are as follows, Washington 5-4 total (3-1 Vs CHI, 2-3 Vs ATL), Chicago 4-5 (1-3 Vs CHI, 3-1 Vs ATL), Atlanta 3-6 (2-3 Vs WAS, 1-3 Vs CHI), I've run the simulations for any other W-L permutations for Chicago, Atlanta and Washington and Washington's tiebreaker wins no matter what even if Atlanta wins both and Washington loses they still have the best H2H RESULT: WASHINGTON
11. WAS goes 1-2, ATL goes 2-1, Chicago goes 1-2 or 0-3, Tied at 14-26 for WAS and ATL, Washington leads H2H 3-1 currently so even with a loss to Atlanta they still would have the tiebreaker at 3-2 RESULT: WASHINGTON
12. WAS goes 1-2, ATL goes 1-2 or 0-3, Chicago goes 2-1, Tied at 14-26 for CHI and WAS, WAS has the tiebreak 3-1 RESULT: WASHINGTON
13. WAS goes 0-3, ATL goes 2-1 or 3-0, Chicago goes 1-2 or 0-3, Atlanta alone at 14-26/15-25 RESULT: ATLANTA
14. WAS goes 0-3 ATL goes 1-2 or 0-3, Chicago goes 2-1 or 3-0, Chicago alone at 14-26/15-25 RESULT: CHICAGO
15. WAS goes 0-3 ATL goes 2-1, Chicago goes 3-0, Chicago alone at 15-25 RESULT: CHICAGO
16. WAS goes 0-3 ATL goes 3-0, Chicago goes 2-1, Chicago alone at 15-25 RESULT: ATLANTA
17. WAS goes 0-3, ATL goes 2-1 (losing to Chicago), Chicago goes 2-1 (beating Atlanta), tied at 14-26, tiebreaker goes to Chicago with the better head to head at 3-1, RESULT: CHICAGO
18. WAS goes 0-3, ATL goes 2-1 (beating Chicago), Chicago goes 2-1 (losing Atlanta), tied at 14-26, tiebreaker is 2-2 so conference record is the next tiebreaker and ATL is 6-14 and CHI is 6-14 also so we need to go one step further to the the third tiebreaker which is vs +.500 opponents so in this case where Indiana counts as they beat WAS to make it to 0.500, ATL (4-18 if they lose to NY, 5-17 if they beat NY) vs CHI (5-17 since they need to beat Connecticut to go 2-1) IF NY BEATS ATL, RESULT: CHICAGO, IF ATL BEATS NY they go to a 4TH TIEBREAKER OMG which is point differential but Atlanta is already winning that by 8 so if they win they'll be 9+ regardless and thus we don't have to worry about a "Atlanta must win by this many points" type discussion, this minutiae has gone far enough RESULT: ATLANTA
16. WAS goes 0-3, ATL and CHI go 1-2 Tiebreaker: WAS, RESULT: WASHINGTON
17. WAS goes 0-3, ATL goes 1-2, Tiebreaker: WAS RESULT: WASHINGTON
18. WAS goes 0-3, ATL goes 0-3, CHI goes 1-2, Tiebreaker: WAS RESULT: WASHINGTON
What I get from this is if Washington wins two games it's clinched because . If go 1-2 and both CHI and ATL lose a game it's clinched
Washington magic number is 3 I think, I went pretty far into this
I'm MAD.
