E-Balla wrote:I'm finna do an RAPM projection. RAPM loves KAT offensively, loves our top 7 actually. I'm going to base the minutes off our rotation and do games played by the average over the last 2 seasons for each player.
RAPM projection has us as a 44.8 win team. The optimistic projection (using KAT's pre Gobert RAPM value and Mikal's Phoenix RAPM projection) has us at 51.6.
Ignoring injuries and using a:
Mitch (30)/KAT(18)
KAT(18)/OG(22)/Precious(8)
OG(14)/Hart(10)/Mikal(24)
Mikal(12)/McBride(18)/Hart(20)
Brunson(36)/CamPayne(12)
Breakdown we're a 51.4 win team at full strength on the modest projection and a 61.3 win team on the positive projection (note: the positive projection assumes we're going to get the best version of every player in our rotation by taking their career high in 5 year RAPM - the most notable flub is gaining more wins from CamPayne than Deuce).
Wide window but at a theoretical full strength we look competitive with every team but Boston and OKC. Our RAPM projection hasn't increased meaningfully, neither did our modest full strength projections but our positive full strength projection has gone from 57.7 wins to 61.3 which is a significant gap.
EDIT: More on the full strength modest and positive gap - the difference is the modest projection is based mostly off Mikal's more recent Brooklyn play with no non Brooklyn prior. We gain 5.1 just off Mikal alone, most of the rest of it is CamPayne and KAT. OG, Hart, Brunson, and Mitch are about the same on both projections.
I got us as a 46 win team probably, close to a 60 win team at full strength, but I'm not sure if we'll ever see a fully healthy squad.