[Charania]: Green Extends In Houston [3$106M]

[Mr Peanut]

There's no market for Zach LaVine says league that signed Jalen Green to a 3 year $106m deal

3/106 is MUUUUUCH different than 3/138, no?

Opinions will probably vary, but I for one think Zach LaVine is much better than Green. Even then, there's virtually no market for him.

Green's best TS% is 54.7% and that was his rookie year. Everyone thought Zach sucked last year and he had a TS% of 57.8%. The three years prior to that he was over 60%

77% of the contract. Is Green better than 77% of the player Zach is?

Jalen Green is only 22 and projects to become a much better player than what he currently is, while Zach LaVine is 29 and won't improve (and likely will decline from here).

Zach LaVine's health is also a big question mark.

I'm not even a Jalen Green fan but his contract and future outlook is far more desirable than LaVine's.

[Scoot McGroot]

That deal is kind of rough for Houston in that it can't be extended.

It can be extended if he opts into that 3rd year.

It can be extended regardless, believe this current year counts towards the two years requirement so he can be extend two years from today

Yeah, I’ve come to believe that, too, but trying to double check.

[JMAC3]

This deal feels like the Rockets don't really believe in Jalen that much, but also are scared to walk away. The most likely outcome in my opinion is he doesn't live up to it and the Rockets end up happy it was only 3 years instead of 5. However, if he does live up to it then the contract is fine and you can always resign him albeit for more but if he is "HIM" it won't really be a big deal.

[K_chile22]

It can be extended if he opts into that 3rd year.

It can be extended regardless, believe this current year counts towards the two years requirement so he can be extend two years from today

Yeah, I’ve come to believe that, too, but trying to double check.

Yeah, my understanding is the extension is seen as signing a four year contract with a player option in this context, which makes this deal better but still not ideal imo. Could be extended to a max in two years which would still only be a 25% max if he ends up playing well which is interesting (not that I would bet on him playing well enough for that scenario)

[Scoot McGroot]

It can be extended regardless, believe this current year counts towards the two years requirement so he can be extend two years from today

Yeah, I’ve come to believe that, too, but trying to double check.

Yeah, my understanding is the extension is seen as signing a four year contract with a player option in this context, which makes this deal better but still not ideal imo. Could be extended to a max in two years which would still only be a 25% max if he ends up playing well which is interesting (not that I would bet on him playing well enough for that scenario)

Even if he extends in 2 years, he would still be playing out the 2nd year of this deal to "opt out of the 3rd year" and add more years on, as he has to play out the last year of his rookie deal, then has 2 gtd years before the option on the 3rd year of the new deal (or 4th year total). It's a bit clunky in that if he wants to extend, he can only add a couple years, and he'll have to wait another year for that extension to add on, but yeah. It's kind of designed for him to hit free agency, in my opinion, and he and Klutch will probably try and negotiate a max 1+1 to get him to 30% max?

[Texas Chuck]

For context, this is ~20% of cap over next 3 years.



Yuck...

He's a 10% player honestly. His potential is a max player but his output is MLE.

Keep your ridiculously dumb bait posts to yourself

If you are baited by someone having a different opinion on your team's players than you, that is 100% a you issue, not a them issue. In no way is this post intentionally trying to bait you or Rocket fans. If you have nothing to contribute to the thread, please keep these kinds of posts to yourself in the future.

We are trying to discuss the deal, not hype up team X players because a poster gets upset otherwise. People are allowed to both like and dislike this contract.

[gswhoops]

Keep your ridiculously dumb bait posts to yourself

He's produced identical numbers to Jordan Poole the last few years and will be making same salary.


I also see Poole as worth half the salary he's making right now, that's about what I peg Green based on what he's shown (consistently average play of volume scoring but well below average efficiency).

This deal has to be mostly based on potential for improvement.

Jalen is a better defender than Poole ever was and is disciplined under Udoka. Most importantly, he's impacting a team that's actually winning.

Poole was a pretty integral part of the Warriors team that won a title in '22. Obviously the current Wizards suck but it's not like Poole has never contributed to a winning team.

[jbk1234]

He's produced identical numbers to Jordan Poole the last few years and will be making same salary.


I also see Poole as worth half the salary he's making right now, that's about what I peg Green based on what he's shown (consistently average play of volume scoring but well below average efficiency).

This deal has to be mostly based on potential for improvement.

Jalen is a better defender than Poole ever was and is disciplined under Udoka. Most importantly, he's impacting a team that's actually winning.

Poole was a pretty integral part of the Warriors team that won a title in '22. Obviously the current Wizards suck but it's not like Poole has never contributed to a winning team.

I wouldn't have given Green that extension, but I'd rather have him on that extension than Poole on his deal.

[gswhoops]

Jalen is a better defender than Poole ever was and is disciplined under Udoka. Most importantly, he's impacting a team that's actually winning.

Poole was a pretty integral part of the Warriors team that won a title in '22. Obviously the current Wizards suck but it's not like Poole has never contributed to a winning team.

I wouldn't have given Green that extension, but I'd rather have him on that extension than Poole on his deal.

With the benefit of hindsight w/r/t how Poole's deal turned out, absolutely.

At the time they were signed, I think that's a different argument.

[ejftw]

At least a decent character guy gets an extension as well. Gonna be interesting to see Jalen outplay this deal and opt out to leave in FA.

[LarsV8]

At least a decent character guy gets an extension as well. Gonna be interesting to see Jalen outplay this deal and opt out to leave in FA.

Free Agency is dead.

[ejftw]

At least a decent character guy gets an extension as well. Gonna be interesting to see Jalen outplay this deal and opt out to leave in FA.

Free Agency is dead.

Just as the valuing of positive character is, I guess.

[HartfordWhalers]

Wholeheartedly disagree that this is a win-win for Houston. Honestly it feels like a lose-lose.

If the last couple months of last season were a fluke then they're commited to paying $35M a year for 3 years for an inefficient iso scorer who doesn't do anything else well. Basically the Jordan Poole contract volume 2, except for more money.

If he does turn out to be that guy, they've only got one more year committed before he hits FA.

I am fully with this take. If you are not ready to commit to 4(+) seasons, then roll it forward a year and do this next summer. But surrendering future control and still paying ahead of knowing if he is a max player or not, all seems like a bad return on the ~6m they are saving per year below a 3 year max as is.

[LarsV8]

At least a decent character guy gets an extension as well. Gonna be interesting to see Jalen outplay this deal and opt out to leave in FA.

Free Agency is dead.

Just as the valuing of positive character is, I guess.

Are you trying to suggest Green is a low character guy?

[ejftw]

Free Agency is dead.

Just as the valuing of positive character is, I guess.

Are you trying to suggest Green is a low character guy?

Nah, he's decent. It's the other scumbag he shares a court with that is

[nate33]

Seems like a pretty terrible deal from Houston's perspective. Green, although physically talented, is not really a very good player yet, so in the short term, this is an overpay. And if Green does put it all together in the next year or two, he becomes an unrestricted free agent in 2 years just as Houston is facing a salary crisis with Sengun, Thompson, Smith, Whitmore and Eason all hitting their second contracts.

I just don't see much upside for Houston on this. I would have waited until next summer. if he turns the corner and become a max-worthy player, then pay him the max then and you'd have him locked up for 5 years. If he hasn't turned the corner, then pay him his fair value or let him walk in free agency if someone else overpays for him. By making this extension now, they effectively have the worst of both worlds. If he fizzles, they're stuck overpaying him for 3 years. If he breaks out, they've only saved a couple of million over the next 2 seasons and then risk losing him as an unrestricted free agent.

[gswhoops]

Wholeheartedly disagree that this is a win-win for Houston. Honestly it feels like a lose-lose.

If the last couple months of last season were a fluke then they're commited to paying $35M a year for 3 years for an inefficient iso scorer who doesn't do anything else well. Basically the Jordan Poole contract volume 2, except for more money.

If he does turn out to be that guy, they've only got one more year committed before he hits FA.

I am fully with this take. If you are not ready to commit to 4(+) seasons, then roll it forward a year and do this next summer. But surrendering future control and still paying ahead of knowing if he is a max player or not, all seems like a bad return on the ~6m they are saving per year below a 3 year max as is.

Seems like a pretty terrible deal from Houston's perspective. Green, although physically talented, is not really a very good player yet, so in the short term, this is an overpay. And if Green does put it all together in the next year or two, he becomes an unrestricted free agent in 2 years just as Houston is facing a salary crisis with Sengun, Thompson, Smith, Whitmore and Eason all hitting their second contracts.

I just don't see much upside for Houston on this. I would have waited until next summer. if he turns the corner and become a max-worthy player, then pay him the max then and you'd have him locked up for 5 years. If he hasn't turned the corner, then pay him his fair value or let him walk in free agency if someone else overpays for him. By making this extension now, they effectively have the worst of both worlds. If he fizzles, they're stuck overpaying him for 3 years. If he breaks out, they've only saved a couple of million over the next 2 seasons and then risk losing him as an unrestricted free agent.

Yeah this is essentially my take away. The more I think about this deal the more I hate it for Houston.

I think this argument gets overused here, but Green really is the prototypical candidate for a team to play "wait and see" with and let him go to RFA rather than extend early. He's shown flashes of being a max player but hasn't put it together consistently. If he can keep up his late-season heroics over the course of an entire season, then they'd happily max him next offseason (and they'd be at no risk of losing him because he'd be a RFA).