Marvin Martian wrote:This. Lavine actually has the numbers to show that he is an elite scorer. Fox just has the reputation of being an elite scorer. He will be an albatross once he is extended.
2019 forward, he's been at 24.6 ppg on 60.1% TS, but he's been pretty inconsistent from year to year. TS+ has warbled: 103, 101, 111, 107, 104, 100, 111. It ebbs and flows with his specific 3P% and whether or not he's drawing fouls in a given season, and he's played more than 63 games just twice in that span. He had a peak year in 2021, but he's mostly like a +2 O-EPM guy, not far off from De'Aaron Fox in that respect. Generally under 1 PlayVal and ScoreVal, Passer Rating around 5, Box Creation around 8.
Fox is generally a net 0 ScoreVal guy, PlayVal 1.5 - 2.0. Box Creation around 11, Passer Rating around 7. Bit of a down year this year overall: PlayVal 0.8, ScoreVal -0.1 Passer Rating 6.4, Box Creation 9.8. 15.8 Drives/36. Lavine this year: 9.1 Box Creation, 4.9 Passer Rating, PlayVal 0.3, ScoreVal 0.7, 9.6 Drives/36.
Just food for thought.
"Elite" is probably a little aggressive for him in terms of scoring. There are 14 guys in the league posting 23+ PTS75 with 1,000+ MP and A ScoreVal of 0.7 or higher. He's ranked 14th among those. The top 8 are all 1.0+ ScoreVal and most of them are better creators as well. He has the lowest Passer Rating among them aside from Normal Powell, as well as the lowest PTS75. 4th-worst PlayVal. Lowest BPM by far, too.
Some things to consider, anyway. There are reasons Lavine's reputation is what it is despite some fairly impressive efficiency numbers. And obviously the playmaking stuff isn't scoring, but it does paint the picture of why his impact isn't really there to the same extent.