2024-25 NBA DPOY and All-Defense discussion

[cupcakesnake]

Wembanyama is actually greatly overrated defensively. Sure if you drive right into him you will get blocked but put him into any sort of action and he gets cooked which is the primary reason behind the Spurs' disappointing defense this season.

His overall rim protection numbers are just pretty good (the block numbers suggest block chasing which is confirmed by the eye test) and he can only play drop so he gets cooked by any higher tier guards. His IQ and effort are very low.

Holmgren is essentially way better at every aspect of defense other than pure shotblocking (blockchasing) and rebounding.

No. You're taking it too far.
The Spurs defend like a top 10 defense with Wemby on the floor, and like a bottom 5 defense with him off the floor. Calling him and part of "the primary reason behind the Spurs' disappointing defense this season" is ridiculous. The Spurs aren't even that disapointing on defense, unless you're talking about your personal expectations. They're average. What did you expect them to be?

Wemby still makes mistakes, but neither his IQ or effort are low. I watch him and think his motor and focus level are obviously high.

I also strongly disagree that Wemby has less defensive versatility than Chet. Wemby is way more disruptive in perimeter situations than Chet. His hustle and deflection stats blow Chet's out of the water.

We're talking about two of the best young defensive players in the NBA. Any take that either of them are bad isn't analysis that I can take seriously.

[Rust_Cohle]

I'd say, historically with this award, the great defensive player on the great defensive team gets a little more love than the great defender lifting the bad defensive team.

Gobert is a good example. When he first started being a DPOY-level guy, Utah was a really strong defense with guys like Favors, George Hill, Joe INgles, RIcky Rubio, Dante Exum, Thabo Sefolosha, Jae Crowder, Royce O'Neale all spending multiple season there. Gobert's on/off numbers were good, but not amazing when Favors could come in and anchor the 2nd unit well enough. Later on, they tried to go for all-offense around Gobert. His on/off went through the roof, but Utah's offense was more average than great, and Gobert didn't win the award when Utah wasn't a top 5 defense. He lost to Marcus Smart one year, because Boston was just so good on defense, and Smart wasn't even unanimously their best defender.

So... Wemby is getting this award regardless, but I think if Chet hadn't gotten hurt, and had kept doing his thing, it would have been really hard to win this award over Chet. OKC is putting hp some historic numbers, and voters tend to like to award that kind of thing, even if it's dumb to credit just 1 good player. I mean... iHart will probably be on some DPOY ballot this year, and Jdub probably should too.

Disagree, wemby is such a unique situation the NBA hasn’t had before. In normal circumstance sure, but a far worse spurs team from last season had wemby barely missing out on DPOY. Considering wemby is hitting insane defensive numbers especially with blocks and getting all kind of block highlights where he doesn’t have to leave his feet which is just absurd he will clean house on this award for years to come. OKC is beyond stacked with amazing defenders, Chet is also more of a role player and even when healthy was barely doing 25 minutes a game. This award was always going to be wembys to lose regardless of Chet.

Even when Chet was healthy wemby was way ahead for DPOY and rightly so:

https://amp.dimers.com/nba-defensive-player-odds-ac-11-12-2024

I agree it will always be Wemby's to lose, but a DPOY-level season by a guy on an all-time great defensive team (OKC is boasting a -8.8 rDtrg despite missing Chet almost the entire season) is the exact kind of thing that might have made Wemby lose it.

We'll never know. Chet didn't even hit a dozen games before his injury. Citing DPOY odds 10 games into the year means next to nothing. Chet might not have even kept up the same pace. I just find it an easy scenario to envision where the media was deciding to make Chet the poster boy of a historic defense. We're talking about imagination here, and it's fine if you say you don't want to imagine it. I think it's quite plausible and have plenty of historical precedent to back it up. Wemby is the best defensive player in the NBA to me, but he's not at a point where he's statistically head and shoulders above everyone. You're a Spurs fan so you may not want to hear it.

I agree with you there actually, but the way wemby has been playing defense on the eye test where nobody wants to shoot within 5 feet of him sometimes, I feel like Chet would’ve needed to average 6 blocks to make it a convo. Chet was never even close when checking the January betting odds before his injury for DPOY. I agree OKC have an insane defense, but I think that actually hurts Chet’s chances whereas wemby plays with 90% traffic cones that makes him stand out even more defensively

[cupcakesnake]

Disagree, wemby is such a unique situation the NBA hasn’t had before. In normal circumstance sure, but a far worse spurs team from last season had wemby barely missing out on DPOY. Considering wemby is hitting insane defensive numbers especially with blocks and getting all kind of block highlights where he doesn’t have to leave his feet which is just absurd he will clean house on this award for years to come. OKC is beyond stacked with amazing defenders, Chet is also more of a role player and even when healthy was barely doing 25 minutes a game. This award was always going to be wembys to lose regardless of Chet.

Even when Chet was healthy wemby was way ahead for DPOY and rightly so:

https://amp.dimers.com/nba-defensive-player-odds-ac-11-12-2024

I agree it will always be Wemby's to lose, but a DPOY-level season by a guy on an all-time great defensive team (OKC is boasting a -8.8 rDtrg despite missing Chet almost the entire season) is the exact kind of thing that might have made Wemby lose it.

We'll never know. Chet didn't even hit a dozen games before his injury. Citing DPOY odds 10 games into the year means next to nothing. Chet might not have even kept up the same pace. I just find it an easy scenario to envision where the media was deciding to make Chet the poster boy of a historic defense. We're talking about imagination here, and it's fine if you say you don't want to imagine it. I think it's quite plausible and have plenty of historical precedent to back it up. Wemby is the best defensive player in the NBA to me, but he's not at a point where he's statistically head and shoulders above everyone. You're a Spurs fan so you may not want to hear it.

I agree with you there actually, but the way wemby has been playing defense on the eye test where nobody wants to shoot within 5 feet of him sometimes, I feel like Chet would’ve needed to average 6 blocks to make it a convo. Chet was never even close when checking the January betting odds before his injury for DPOY. I agree OKC have an insane defense, but I think that actually hurts Chet’s chances whereas wemby plays with 90% traffic cones that makes him stand out even more defensively

This circles back to my original response to you. Being a great defender on a mediocre defense- while it definitely boosts any defensive metrics involving on/off numbers- does correlate with winning DPOY as much as being the best defender on the best defensive team does. Wemby probably could have been the exception to this, but all I'm saying is that it's really easy to imagine a scenario where Chet's DPOY case was strong enough to win.

The Vegas odds thing is nothing. No one is making DPOY cases 10 games in. Vegas is making a helpful educational guess for their betting lines early in the season. All you're saying by pointing to these odds, is that Wemby entered the season the favorite for this award. We all know that. There's a good reason for that. I agree with you when you say this award is Wemby's to lose every year. However, I think the gap between Wemby and the field (Chet, Mobley, Gobert, Bam, Draymond, JJJ... basically the elite defenders) is smaller than you think it is, in terms of defensive impact and ability. I do agree Wemby is the best defender in the NBA. No one can replicate his physical advantages.

Your concept of the gap between Wemby and Chet is pretty overstated if you're saying Chet would need to average Chet blocks. Chet is an insanely good defensive player. Even when Chet struggled on offense in the playoffs last year, we was an exceptional defensive anchor on a strong defensive playoff team. Then he came out to start the season and in the minutes OKC had Chet on the floor, they had a whopping 98 defensive rating(!?!?!), like it was the year 2004 or something. It probably wouldn't have sustained, but Chet was absolutely balling on defense to start the year.

[MoneyTalks41890]

I mean… Chet averaging 6 blocks not off the table

[Castle Black]

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[Rust_Cohle]

I agree it will always be Wemby's to lose, but a DPOY-level season by a guy on an all-time great defensive team (OKC is boasting a -8.8 rDtrg despite missing Chet almost the entire season) is the exact kind of thing that might have made Wemby lose it.

We'll never know. Chet didn't even hit a dozen games before his injury. Citing DPOY odds 10 games into the year means next to nothing. Chet might not have even kept up the same pace. I just find it an easy scenario to envision where the media was deciding to make Chet the poster boy of a historic defense. We're talking about imagination here, and it's fine if you say you don't want to imagine it. I think it's quite plausible and have plenty of historical precedent to back it up. Wemby is the best defensive player in the NBA to me, but he's not at a point where he's statistically head and shoulders above everyone. You're a Spurs fan so you may not want to hear it.

I agree with you there actually, but the way wemby has been playing defense on the eye test where nobody wants to shoot within 5 feet of him sometimes, I feel like Chet would’ve needed to average 6 blocks to make it a convo. Chet was never even close when checking the January betting odds before his injury for DPOY. I agree OKC have an insane defense, but I think that actually hurts Chet’s chances whereas wemby plays with 90% traffic cones that makes him stand out even more defensively

This circles back to my original response to you. Being a great defender on a mediocre defense- while it definitely boosts any defensive metrics involving on/off numbers- does correlate with winning DPOY as much as being the best defender on the best defensive team does. Wemby probably could have been the exception to this, but all I'm saying is that it's really easy to imagine a scenario where Chet's DPOY case was strong enough to win.

The Vegas odds thing is nothing. No one is making DPOY cases 10 games in. Vegas is making a helpful educational guess for their betting lines early in the season. All you're saying by pointing to these odds, is that Wemby entered the season the favorite for this award. We all know that. There's a good reason for that. I agree with you when you say this award is Wemby's to lose every year. However, I think the gap between Wemby and the field (Chet, Mobley, Gobert, Bam, Draymond, JJJ... basically the elite defenders) is smaller than you think it is, in terms of defensive impact and ability. I do agree Wemby is the best defender in the NBA. No one can replicate his physical advantages.

Your concept of the gap between Wemby and Chet is pretty overstated if you're saying Chet would need to average Chet blocks. Chet is an insanely good defensive player. Even when Chet struggled on offense in the playoffs last year, we was an exceptional defensive anchor on a strong defensive playoff team. Then he came out to start the season and in the minutes OKC had Chet on the floor, they had a whopping 98 defensive rating(!?!?!), like it was the year 2004 or something. It probably wouldn't have sustained, but Chet was absolutely balling on defense to start the year.

Sure Chet was great to start the gear defensively, but enough to unseat wemby as DPOY? No way, even 10 games Chet isn’t remotely close for DPOY.

Players like Anthony Davis had a much much better chance than Chet. He doesn’t play enough minutes on top of being injury prone.

And for the record you could absolutely convince me Chet is in fact a top 2-3 defensive player in the league, but on the eyes of the voters I feel like he will end up getting shifted with votes getting split amongst other thunder defenders. Not doubting his actual defensive ability.

[Rust_Cohle]

I mean… Chet averaging 6 blocks not off the table

He’d need to double his current blocks, not happening

[kazyv]

I don't like this idea of awarding a player on a failed team with average to below average defense. Even less so a DPOY, since defense is much more of a coordinated team effort than offense. Quite frankly, if they can't figure it out with the DPOY, maybe he simply isn't that great. Wins are the most accurate/direct way of measuring defensive impact. Then come team defense metrics. Wemby fails both of those bars, that should be cleared before you even enter the convo

[Rust_Cohle]

I don't like this idea of awarding a player on a failed team with average to below average defense. Even less so a DPOY, since defense is much more of a coordinated team effort than offense. Quite frankly, if they can't figure it out with the DPOY, maybe he simply isn't that great. Wins are the most accurate/direct way of measuring defensive impact. Then come team defense metrics. Wemby fails both of those bars, that should be cleared before you even enter the convo

That’s quite silly considering how much worse Wemby’s teammates are defensively compared to virtually anyone else in the top 3-4 for DPOY potential.

Defensively we haven’t really seen anything like wemby ever:

https://www.theringer.com/2025/01/23/nba/victor-wembanyana-san-antonio-spurs-stats-height-all-star

They’re 8th best in the NBA defensively when he’s on the floor, and ranked 29th when he’s off the floor. Nobody other team has a bigger drop off defensively than when wemby sits for the Spurs. Hence why he’ll be running away with DPOY.

[jayu70]

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[Whateva]

Here we go again with the stocks, they should not be a reference when it comes to being a good defender
Dennis Rodman an example of that, was low in stocks but a hell of a defender.

[zzaj]

He will never make it on an AD team, but Toumani Camara needs to be mentioned here. He's developed into a pretty amazing defender across 4 positions. Currently leads the league in charges taken, I believe...

[Castle Black]

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[shrink]

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“And you know, we should give a DPOY award to the best defender who’s under six foot!””

“And another one who’s defending through injuries!”

“And another one if it’s a kid under 22, because it takes time to be a good defender!”

“And thirty to the best defensive player on every team, because it’s hard to be a good defender if your team sucks!”


Welcome to the “everyone gets a ribbon” generation.

The Defensive Player of the Year goes to a center because THEY BRING THE MOST TO A TEAM’s DEFENSE. Nate Duncan last year said that if they made the All Defense Team non-positional, like All NBA, ten centers would win the awards. Centers often guard their man, and every other attacker that gets past the other four teammates, and is driving to the rim for a high percentage shot.

Sorry Jalen and Jaylen. Life is unfair, but you aren’t the Defensive Player of the Year, and don’t get an award by making extra trophies. Get your pats on the head for All Star Game nominations, which don’t reward defense.

[cupcakesnake]

I don't like this idea of awarding a player on a failed team with average to below average defense. Even less so a DPOY, since defense is much more of a coordinated team effort than offense. Quite frankly, if they can't figure it out with the DPOY, maybe he simply isn't that great. Wins are the most accurate/direct way of measuring defensive impact. Then come team defense metrics. Wemby fails both of those bars, that should be cleared before you even enter the convo

To be fair, the Spurs play like a top 10 defense when Wemby is on the floor. What's he supposed to do about the team playing like a bottom 5 defense when he's off the floor?

In general, the Spurs win the minutes that Wemby is on the floor. They get blown out in non-Wemby minutes. Is this Wemby failing to you?

[cupcakesnake]

Here we go again with the stocks, they should not be a reference when it comes to being a good defender
Dennis Rodman an example of that, was low in stocks but a hell of a defender.

Stocks isn't the sole measurement of a good defender, but throwing it out is even more dumb. It gives us an idea of defensive playmaking. It doesn't help us understand man-to-man defense, and it doesn't help us understand all plays the defender stopped/prevented.

Dennis Rodman had specific strengths and weaknesses. He was an all-time great man-to-man defender across multiple positions. He was an insane rebounder and hustle player. He was not a rim protector or in general much of an off-ball player.

You can be a great defender without being a big stocks guy. No one is saying you can't. Pointing out that someone generates a ton of blocks, steals, and deflections is still a worthwhile thing to do.

[slick_watts]

jalen williams' idea is stupid but he should probably be on an all-defense team. others on the thunder get more recognition but i think jalen williams has been their most consistent and best defensive player with chet holmgren out.

[MoneyTalks41890]

This very much feels like part of an All D campaign.

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[JackTalkThai]

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The Defensive Player of the Year goes to a center because THEY BRING THE MOST TO A TEAM’s DEFENSE. Nate Duncan last year said that if they made the All Defense Team non-positional, like All NBA, ten centers would win the awards. Centers often guard their man, and every other attacker that gets past the other four teammates, and is driving to the rim for a high percentage shot.

Centers are also tasked with being the primary defender of the opposing team’s primary (or secondary) offensive player maybe once every 15-20 games.

Above-average-defense centers are free to roam off-ball as much as they do and rack up (overweighted to the DPOTY award) help-side blocks because the relative ease of their primary defensive assignments allow them to do so.

It’s significantly easier for someone hold an intelligent and involved conversation about the strengths & weaknesses of the advanced analytics revolution in the NBA while simultaneously cooking macaroni & cheese as opposed to attempting to do the same while tasked with cooking Brunoise Consommé.

[cupcakesnake]

This very much feels like part of an All D campaign.

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Rank the OKC defenders!
Might need 2 separate lists in terms of "most valuable/integral" and most skilled defender, you know?

I'd probably put the two bigs and J.Dub at the top of the first list, but have Caruso and Dort more considered on the second list. Shai, Cason... it's a crazy collection.