yellowknifer wrote:moderndarwin wrote:It’s been pretty clearly Draymond
He hasn’t gotten a lot of press really, but I wouldn’t be upset. Has he played enough to qualify? He missed a lot.
I lean towards Mobley myself. He is pretty rare. Guys with his length can’t usually move like he does. He’s kind of ideal in today’s NBA.
I was wondering if we'd start seeing Dray arguments, and I like seeing them, but if the season ended right now I think I'd say Mobley without too much debate. I don't want to talk as if my points below make Mobley inevitable - because I expect I'd have gone with Wemby like everyone else if he hadn't been hurt, and frankly I think Chet may well have taken the award had he been healthy too - but they aren't nothing.
Aside from the stuff I already know about these candidates, I like to start off querying the team's on-court DRtg when they guy is out there. Noteworthy guys from that, minimum 28 MPG & 50 GP:
1. Shai (OKC) 105.2
2. JDub (OKC) 105.8
3. Sengun (HOU) 106.6
4. Mobley (CLE) 107.0
5. Dort (OKC) 107.0
6. JJJ (MEM) 107.5
7. Zubac (LAC) 107.7
9. Gobert (MIN) 108.0
11. Holiday (BOS) 108.5
16. Green (GSW) 109.4
So the immediate thing here is what to do with the OKC guys. Shai's my MVP, but I really don't see him as a defensive anchor, and that's kinda true about the other OKC guys mentioned here. Easier for me to see, say, Dort as a DPOY candidate than Shai in theory, but if I'm going to consider a non-big, I'd really like him to stand out over the rest of his team.
I think we're all skeptical that Sengun is THAT strong of a defender. Teammates like Brooks & Amen are the ones who tend to get that defensive respect, but again I'd like to see those guys clearly separate themselves from a guy like Sengun and they aren't doing that.
Then we get to Mobley, JJJ, Zubac & Gobert. 4 bigs who it's relatively easy to see as DPOY choices (even if Zubac has never really been considered on that level before).
Finally we have Holiday - perimeter defensive legend who tops his team - and Green who I consider the reigning Defensive Player of the Decade.
My next goto statistically is to start looking at other more sophisticated approaches to impact but before I do, here's the thing:
Mobley's doing this as the universally agreed-upon best defensive player of the team with the best record in the league, and while leading the team in overall +/- (2nd in league behind Shai). Am I really going to favor, say, a guy like Zubac if he has slightly better impact metrics on a treadmill team? Probably not. That sort edge for Mobley is less clear against the other candidates, but it doesn't disappear. Basically anything resembling a tie is going to go for Mobley if things continue to play out as they have.
Okay, so, happy to look at other metrics, but if we go by Season Defensive EPM, here's the nba.com leaderboard among guy with that MPG & GP:
1. JDub 2.6
2. Amen 2.5
3. Zubac 2.3
4. Mobley 2.1
5. Green 2.0
(tie) Dyson 2.0
(tie) Barnes 2.0
(tie) Nembhart 2.0
And other guys mentioned earlier
JJJ 1.8
Sengun 1.8
Shai 1.7
Gobert 1.5
Holiday 1.3
Dort 1.2
Right so yeah, this doesn't make me want to side with Zubac over Mobley, though I don't think it unreasonable if others do.
JDub & Amen are the guys here with a bigger edge, so let's revisit defensive on-off now thinking of them along with Mobley. Note that I'm using b-r.com here because they have that laid out nicely.
Mobley -4.7 (tops among core Cav players)
Amen +1.5
JDub +2.2
So both Amen & JDub are on teams whose defenses are apparently doing better when they're on the bench. Of course I don't believe these guys are actual defensive weak spots and a stat like that can get skewed if you're playing more with offensive-oriented players...but when you're talking about the season DPOY, it's pretty weird to me to advocate for a guy in this position.
If EPM were pure RAPM then we could argue that when lineups are adjusted for, the raw on-off is entirely rebutted, but of course EPM is trying to factor in other things, and apparently those other things are favoring these two super-young guys. And this adds to the concern because typically the box score overrates the young because it misses out on BBIQ stuff.
So then when I look at this, I'm inclined to favor not just Mobley over those two, but probably other guys as well.
If we look at the defensive on-off for some of the other guys mentioned:
JJJ -5.7
Zubac -5.0
Gobert -3.6
Holiday -2.8
Green -0.3
Dyson +3.1
So yeah, looking at all of this, I might say right now:
1. Mobley
2. JJJ
3. Zubac