Can you make the case that Duncan is top-7 all time?

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Re: Can you make the case that Duncan is top-7 all time? 

Post#61 » by tsherkin » Wed Mar 19, 2025 2:46 pm

Quattro wrote:A better question would be "can you make the case that he ISN'T?"


There aren't a ton of guys you can argue against him. To argue him outside, you'd have to lean hard towards Olajuwon, Moses or Shaq among the older guys... which is challenging, because Tim just kept winning. Otherwise, you'd have to make some case for Steph, Joker or Giannis. Jokic doesn't have the rings, but it'll depend heavily on your specific criteria, right? He certainly has the MVPs and A ring, which is enough to at least have the discussion advanced without it getting laughed away. Steph has a couple of MVPs and 4 titles, which is fairly similar to Duncan's accolade set. He certainly wasn't a Duncan-level defender, but was far better on offense and was at the tip of the spear for a revolution in league-wide offensive style.

Of that set, I think Steph, and then Jokic, have the best arguments. But they are certainly no clear-cut guarantees.

I don't think you can make a real case that there is "0 argument" for Duncan to be outside of the top-7 (as another poster suggested), personally, but it would be a tough sell at the moment, that's for certain.
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Re: Can you make the case that Duncan is top-7 all time? 

Post#62 » by scrabbarista » Wed Mar 19, 2025 2:47 pm

He's fourth.

I won't make the case now. Need coffee.
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Re: Can you make the case that Duncan is top-7 all time? 

Post#63 » by scrabbarista » Wed Mar 19, 2025 2:49 pm

cupcakesnake wrote:I have Duncan at #4 all-time and I think you can reasonably argue him higher than that.

Very iron-clad resume of accomplishment with tons of statistical evidence of massive impact that stacks up against anyone.

He's not the greatest offensive player ever, but he was pretty incredible with his resilient post-scoring game + all the intangibles he brought as a screener, cutter, and passer. Then on defense, he's in the GOAT discussion there. He's sort of the inverse of Kareem in this way.


Took the words right out of my mouth!
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Re: Can you make the case that Duncan is top-7 all time? 

Post#64 » by HMFFL » Wed Mar 19, 2025 2:54 pm

It's disappointing to me how Magic's career ended. His final season at 31 years of age he ended second in MVP. The two prior seasons he won MVP. He was only getting started. I can remember turning off the television as the media had their way with him. I later worked with Magic at Turner studios before he left to go to ESPN and then on to better things.
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Re: Can you make the case that Duncan is top-7 all time? 

Post#65 » by tsherkin » Wed Mar 19, 2025 2:54 pm

scrabbarista wrote:
cupcakesnake wrote:I have Duncan at #4 all-time and I think you can reasonably argue him higher than that.

Very iron-clad resume of accomplishment with tons of statistical evidence of massive impact that stacks up against anyone.

He's not the greatest offensive player ever, but he was pretty incredible with his resilient post-scoring game + all the intangibles he brought as a screener, cutter, and passer. Then on defense, he's in the GOAT discussion there. He's sort of the inverse of Kareem in this way.


Took the words right out of my mouth!



I think it's pretty hard to author a respectful argument for Duncan that high.

Up there, you're dealing with the absolute beasts of yesteryear, so unless you just piss on their accomplishments and write them off for their era, there's a bit of a cap. Kareem, Russell. Wilt's set of unmatchable achievements. Jordan. Then you still have to go through Lebron, which isn't a clear-cut thing either. And that doesn't even really address Mikan. He does get crapped on and forgotten a lot for it being so early on in the NBA, but if you do consider cross-era comparison, then you have to account for him.
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Re: Can you make the case that Duncan is top-7 all time? 

Post#66 » by NYPiston » Wed Mar 19, 2025 2:59 pm

I don't think there's much of an argument for Duncan not being top 7.
You've got MJ, Lebron, Kareem, Wilt and Magic as a clear top 5 or maybe some put Russell in there but I don't see enough offense to put him at the top of the mountain then you have Duncan (who I'd place over Russell tbh) and Bird? Shaq? Hakeem? I think Duncan is clearly over those 2nd tier guys based on longevity of excellence alone.

At this rate, in about 3-4 years if he keeps on this trajectory, I think it might be time to have a serious conversation about Jokic being top 5 especially if the Nuggets win another championship or two.
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Re: Can you make the case that Duncan is top-7 all time? 

Post#67 » by HMFFL » Wed Mar 19, 2025 3:30 pm

NYPiston wrote:I don't think there's much of an argument for Duncan not being top 7.
You've got MJ, Lebron, Kareem, Wilt and Magic as a clear top 5 or maybe some put Russell in there but I don't see enough offense to put him at the top of the mountain then you have Duncan (who I'd place over Russell tbh) and Bird? Shaq? Hakeem? I think Duncan is clearly over those 2nd tier guys based on longevity of excellence alone.

At this rate, in about 3-4 years if he keeps on this trajectory, I think it might be time to have a serious conversation about Jokic being top 5 especially if the Nuggets win another championship or two.
Your top 5's not a "clear" top 5. Maybe from your perspective, but not to others, and the thread is proof of that.

You seem to not value defensive at all, because Jokic has never made an all defensive team, but he can be top 5 all-time?
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Re: Can you make the case that Duncan is top-7 all time? 

Post#68 » by Iwasawitness » Wed Mar 19, 2025 3:31 pm

boomershadow wrote:I'm surprised more people don't make the argument he is above LeBron


Because there’s no radio argument for it.
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Re: Can you make the case that Duncan is top-7 all time? 

Post#69 » by kwajo » Wed Mar 19, 2025 3:55 pm

Easy argument from me, as someone who watched his entire career and cheered the first championship from thousands of kilometres away. Duncan's peak, longevity, commitment to winning, and professionalism all seal it for me.

Still can't believe he never won a DPOY, what a travesty.
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Re: Can you make the case that Duncan is top-7 all time? 

Post#70 » by cupcakesnake » Wed Mar 19, 2025 4:02 pm

tsherkin wrote:
scrabbarista wrote:
cupcakesnake wrote:I have Duncan at #4 all-time and I think you can reasonably argue him higher than that.

Very iron-clad resume of accomplishment with tons of statistical evidence of massive impact that stacks up against anyone.

He's not the greatest offensive player ever, but he was pretty incredible with his resilient post-scoring game + all the intangibles he brought as a screener, cutter, and passer. Then on defense, he's in the GOAT discussion there. He's sort of the inverse of Kareem in this way.


Took the words right out of my mouth!



I think it's pretty hard to author a respectful argument for Duncan that high.

Up there, you're dealing with the absolute beasts of yesteryear, so unless you just piss on their accomplishments and write them off for their era, there's a bit of a cap. Kareem, Russell. Wilt's set of unmatchable achievements. Jordan. Then you still have to go through Lebron, which isn't a clear-cut thing either. And that doesn't even really address Mikan. He does get crapped on and forgotten a lot for it being so early on in the NBA, but if you do consider cross-era comparison, then you have to account for him.


I don't think it's disrespectful to have Bill Russell at #5 (I think he's a guy you can argue all the way up to #1). I have Wilt at #7, but I flip flop with him at 6. I have Mikan at #14, but acknowledge that it's pretty difficult to compare him in any argument where you want to incorporate some level of "relative to era" thinking.

I think Duncan's case against any of these guys (including Jordan and Kareem) isn't that complicated. If Duncan is your GOAT, you probably think he's the best defender ever (or at least right there with Hakeem and Russell). You probably correlate San Antonio's massive success to Duncan's basketball abilities and the intangibles he brings as a leader. The portability he brought by being able to put perimeter playmakers around and run the offense through them, despite Duncan's post-up hub work being the main offense of 2 championships. I think you have to really like the resiliency of his scoring game, and be awed by the consistency over his 19-year career (look at his per 100 numbers at age 36 and age 24... it's just ridiculous). In terms of longevity titans, his defense ages way better than Kareem's. If he's possibly a top 5-ish peak guy, and a top 3 longevity guy...we're getting into pretty clear GOAT candidacy there, no? Punish MJ for the retirmentes, add a pinch of Lebron hater-ade and we can really get cooking!

I don't have Duncan as my GOAT, so I'm not here authoring a long "respectful" argument, but I don't think it's hard to picture. We've both seen it done, no?

I think if you're a little lower on Duncan, you think he's a top-10 all-time defender rather than a GOAT candidate. You probably don't care about his offense much, and might be more inclined to giving Manu Ginobili the lion's share of credit in a handful of those playoff runs. Maybe someone is low on Duncan's peak (though the PC board fairly recently voted 2003 Duncan as the 6th best peak ever).
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Re: Can you make the case that Duncan is top-7 all time? 

Post#71 » by tsherkin » Wed Mar 19, 2025 4:06 pm

cupcakesnake wrote:I don't think it's disrespectful to have Bill Russell at #5 (I think he's a guy you can argue all the way up to #1). I have Wilt at #7, but I flip flop with him at 6. I have Mikan at #14, but acknowledge that it's pretty difficult to compare him in any argument where you want to incorporate some level of "relative to era" thinking.


I think it becomes challenging to ignore certain elements of the dominance Russell exerted over his league compared to Duncan, who won less, and with less dominance (no repeat titles, didn't get the same separation from MVP voting, etc).

But the era issue is a big divide with a lot of people, for sure. It is the main reason I'm mostly against cross-era comparisons.

I don't have Duncan as my GOAT, so I'm not here authoring a long "respectful" argument, but I don't think it's hard to picture. We've both seen it done, no?


I haven't seen an argument for Duncan that high which I found compelling or appropriate in its treatment of the other players involved yet, no.

I have Duncan solidly at #7, though. He was a brilliantly-effective player who kept grinding out wins, and adapted well across his career.
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Re: Can you make the case that Duncan is top-7 all time? 

Post#72 » by bisme37 » Wed Mar 19, 2025 4:11 pm

Timmy has the best career +/- for any player with over 500 games played.

Spoiler:
(You'll never guess who is #2...)


https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/best-career-plus-minus-per-game-with-100-games-played-nba-with-over-500-gp
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Re: Can you make the case that Duncan is top-7 all time? 

Post#73 » by 70sFan » Wed Mar 19, 2025 4:11 pm

dhsilv2 wrote:
druggas wrote:
dhsilv2 wrote:

Sure but not a top 8 player!

Maybe on your list.


Not on any sane person's list. As we all know he's not a great offensive player, a very good one of course, but we can all agree he wasn't an elite offensive unit. You know he's a top 50 or so offensive guy. And I'm sure everyone who follows the NBA would agree.

Wilt in top 8 is very easy to defend.
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Re: Can you make the case that Duncan is top-7 all time? 

Post#74 » by cupcakesnake » Wed Mar 19, 2025 4:11 pm

zimpy27 wrote:
cupcakesnake wrote:I have Duncan at #4 all-time and I think you can reasonably argue him higher than that.

Very iron-clad resume of accomplishment with tons of statistical evidence of massive impact that stacks up against anyone.

He's not the greatest offensive player ever, but he was pretty incredible with his resilient post-scoring game + all the intangibles he brought as a screener, cutter, and passer. Then on defense, he's in the GOAT discussion there. He's sort of the inverse of Kareem in this way.



What does Jokic need to do to surpass him in your view?

If Jokic won 2 more championships while putting up another 3 seasons like he's had recently (giving him 8 seasons at 30+ PER), would that do it?


He'll always be disadvantaged against a guy like Duncan, only because Duncan was immediately put on a contender and got to contend basically every year of his career.

I don't really think Jokic can "surpass" Duncan. I think he can get to a point where it's reasonable to make a Jokic>Duncan case. Duncan was too successful and impactful for anyone but the GOATs to be definitely ahead of him. Most people are pretty comfortable with MJ, Lebron, and Kareem over MJ. I think there are plenty of Duncan arguments against Wilt, Russell, Hakeem, Shaq. I think it gets awfully hard to argue for Magic/Bird (short careers), KG (Duncan with less team success), or the old school guys (West, Mikan, Big O).

So to me, Jokic has to be regarded highly in that top 10. More firmly in people's top 7s or 8s rather than a cuspy top 10 guy.

Doing what you said (3x championships, all-time greatest offensive prime that lasted almost a decade) will give Jokic a resume that stacks up against anyone, Duncan included.
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Re: Can you make the case that Duncan is top-7 all time? 

Post#75 » by dhsilv2 » Wed Mar 19, 2025 4:12 pm

70sFan wrote:
dhsilv2 wrote:
druggas wrote:Maybe on your list.


Not on any sane person's list. As we all know he's not a great offensive player, a very good one of course, but we can all agree he wasn't an elite offensive unit. You know he's a top 50 or so offensive guy. And I'm sure everyone who follows the NBA would agree.

Wilt in top 8 is very easy to defend.


One can do it...but saying he's a mortal lock? Nah...
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Re: Can you make the case that Duncan is top-7 all time? 

Post#76 » by 70sFan » Wed Mar 19, 2025 4:14 pm

makubesu wrote:The only case is recency bias. I’ve never once seen someone break down his game head-2-head against Hakeem and said “in this aspect, Duncan was better”

Duncan was a better playmaker, better passer, better rebounder, better P&R player, better at drawing fouls, had stronger base in the post, better transition player.

You can still pick Hakeem without any problems, but it's silly to suggest that Duncan did nothing better than him.
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Re: Can you make the case that Duncan is top-7 all time? 

Post#77 » by dhsilv2 » Wed Mar 19, 2025 4:14 pm

cupcakesnake wrote:
zimpy27 wrote:
cupcakesnake wrote:I have Duncan at #4 all-time and I think you can reasonably argue him higher than that.

Very iron-clad resume of accomplishment with tons of statistical evidence of massive impact that stacks up against anyone.

He's not the greatest offensive player ever, but he was pretty incredible with his resilient post-scoring game + all the intangibles he brought as a screener, cutter, and passer. Then on defense, he's in the GOAT discussion there. He's sort of the inverse of Kareem in this way.



What does Jokic need to do to surpass him in your view?

If Jokic won 2 more championships while putting up another 3 seasons like he's had recently (giving him 8 seasons at 30+ PER), would that do it?


He'll always be disadvantaged against a guy like Duncan, only because Duncan was immediately put on a contender and got to contend basically every year of his career.

I don't really think Jokic can "surpass" Duncan. I think he can get to a point where it's reasonable to make a Jokic>Duncan case. Duncan was too successful and impactful for anyone but the GOATs to be definitely ahead of him. Most people are pretty comfortable with MJ, Lebron, and Kareem over MJ. I think there are plenty of Duncan arguments against Wilt, Russell, Hakeem, Shaq. I think it gets awfully hard to argue for Magic/Bird (short careers), KG (Duncan with less team success), or the old school guys (West, Mikan, Big O).

So to me, Jokic has to be regarded highly in that top 10. More firmly in people's top 7s or 8s rather than a cuspy top 10 guy.

Doing what you said (3x championships, all-time greatest offensive prime that lasted almost a decade) will give Jokic a resume that stacks up against anyone, Duncan included.


Actually pretty easy to make a case for KG over Duncan. It's actually hard to argue Duncan over KG without just going back to the very weak "team success" argument. It's one I actually do make in their case, but it feels like a bad argument even when I'm doing it.
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Re: Can you make the case that Duncan is top-7 all time? 

Post#78 » by 70sFan » Wed Mar 19, 2025 4:15 pm

dhsilv2 wrote:
70sFan wrote:
dhsilv2 wrote:
Not on any sane person's list. As we all know he's not a great offensive player, a very good one of course, but we can all agree he wasn't an elite offensive unit. You know he's a top 50 or so offensive guy. And I'm sure everyone who follows the NBA would agree.

Wilt in top 8 is very easy to defend.


One can do it...but saying he's a mortal lock? Nah...

There is no lock top 8, because the list keeps changing year after year. That being said, Wilt is very clearly in my top 9 and I struggle to put him any lower than that.
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Re: Can you make the case that Duncan is top-7 all time? 

Post#79 » by tsherkin » Wed Mar 19, 2025 4:15 pm

dhsilv2 wrote:Actually pretty easy to make a case for KG over Duncan. It's actually hard to argue Duncan over KG without just going back to the very weak "team success" argument. It's one I actually do make in their case, but it feels like a bad argument even when I'm doing it.


Most arguments for KG over Duncan appear to be heavily oriented towards RAPM, and little else, from what I've seen.
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Re: Can you make the case that Duncan is top-7 all time? 

Post#80 » by 70sFan » Wed Mar 19, 2025 4:16 pm

dhsilv2 wrote:
cupcakesnake wrote:
zimpy27 wrote:

What does Jokic need to do to surpass him in your view?

If Jokic won 2 more championships while putting up another 3 seasons like he's had recently (giving him 8 seasons at 30+ PER), would that do it?


He'll always be disadvantaged against a guy like Duncan, only because Duncan was immediately put on a contender and got to contend basically every year of his career.

I don't really think Jokic can "surpass" Duncan. I think he can get to a point where it's reasonable to make a Jokic>Duncan case. Duncan was too successful and impactful for anyone but the GOATs to be definitely ahead of him. Most people are pretty comfortable with MJ, Lebron, and Kareem over MJ. I think there are plenty of Duncan arguments against Wilt, Russell, Hakeem, Shaq. I think it gets awfully hard to argue for Magic/Bird (short careers), KG (Duncan with less team success), or the old school guys (West, Mikan, Big O).

So to me, Jokic has to be regarded highly in that top 10. More firmly in people's top 7s or 8s rather than a cuspy top 10 guy.

Doing what you said (3x championships, all-time greatest offensive prime that lasted almost a decade) will give Jokic a resume that stacks up against anyone, Duncan included.


Actually pretty easy to make a case for KG over Duncan. It's actually hard to argue Duncan over KG without just going back to the very weak "team success" argument. It's one I actually do make in their case, but it feels like a bad argument even when I'm doing it.

No, that's not true. You can make plenty of arguments for Duncan over Garnett without mentioning team success.

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