PushDaRock wrote:Development isn't linear but you just don't see 2 years of actual regression in the first 4 years of a career typically speaking.
It's well and good to note that development isn't linear; this is even more true now that most in the draft are 19. It's several years before they'd normally have hit the league in decades past. So there's something to the idea of having a little more patience. 30 years ago, Scottie would have just finished like his 2nd year in the league, and everything about his career would have been different, because after 3 or 4 years in college, players tend to be more known quantities. Off-dribble shooting is not typically something we see a ton of development in once a player hits the league... but that doesn't make it impossible, just unlikely. Seeing a ton of improvement when a guy is pretty consistently rough from ATB and is generally quite weak from the corners, in reasonable volume, gets less and less likely as time goes on. If he was taking 1 3PA/g, then it might be a little different, but he's been bombing in volume and even last year, wasn't even at league average efficiency at his best to date. So you take his weak J, non-elite FT shooting, non-elite draw rate, average finishing by the basket, unremarkable volume around the rim, non-elite short game and non-elite athleticism, and the look of his upper bound starts to be lower and lower.
But where's the middle space, right? He isn't gonna be a hyper-efficient 25+ ppg guy. Okay, cool. Those aren't that common anyway.
In the league in 24-25, there were 44 guys who scored 20+ and player 40+ games. If you make that 19+ ppg, you get 52 players. And among those, Barnes was dead-last in efficiency, a full 1.3% worse than even LaMelo Ball. That's... brutally bad. 32 of them matched or exceeded league-average efficiency, to give some context.
But let's be generous. Hand injuries, eye injuries. Scottie was banged up this year. Played 5 more games than he did last year, but let's look at his efficiency from all his seasons, actually. Barnes was at 56.6% TS last year, which would be only -1.0% rTS this season. That would still rank him 38th of 52 among guys at his volume playing 40+ games and posting 19+ ppg. And that's the best we've seen from Scottie. And remember, he was at 52.4% TS in 2023 as well, so this isn't just a random drop due to injuries. He played 77 games that season, and shot 13.2 FGA/g. And played 34.8 mpg, compared to 32.8 this year, so it wasn't even logging heavy minutes (and that's with Scottie ramping up minutes over the last couple months).
I think that rather tidily illustrates the problem with Scottie as a scorer, and projections of him at the moment. He's very, very bad at it, and improving from the hole where he finds himself to a degree which will be useful to us in volume is exceedingly unlikely. Like, guys who improve a bunch usually have some sort of basis upon which to found their improving game. Athleticism, shooting ability, slashing ability, isolation scoring, something, right? So there's usually some possession mud to clean up, some thing tactically to alter and then they can start playing a little better. They don't typically turn into superstars, but I think that's pretty clearly off the table at this point, and we're mostly agreed that we're looking for something a lot more modest out of him.
And there's hope for that. There isn't going to be a lot of reason to ram shots to him next year with BI here. He's immediately a better scorer, and should be our focus point for volume. Barrett's been as good as Scottie ever has in terms of scoring, given or take, and at least can be leveraged for corner shooting and off-ball slashing. We have some things to work through with our youth, like Gradey and Ochai. Poeltl is good for some low-volume stuff. Quickley, for sure. No clue who we're going to draft or what Masai might do, but even in advance of that, we have options.
We don't NEED to ram scoring possessions through Scottie anymore, so hopefully now that we're pivoting to the idea of trying to win, we don't force it needlessly. And that should help tailor his possession distribution in a more optimal way, which might help him look a little better. A theme over his first four seasons is < 50% of his 2pts being assisted. He blows donkeys from 3, and I think that experiment should mostly end, but there are piles of ways we can reduce his volume and increase the passing support going into his shots, which should help a lot while accenting his D and passing as his inefficiency becomes less of an issue.
Scottie's probably going to be with us for a long time, and there are a bunch of ways in which that could go very well for us.