drsd wrote:Black and Blue wrote:The Orlando Magic are projected to be over the first apron NOW. With this current playoff play-in roster. Once the extension for Paolo and others kicks in, they will be even MORE in trouble.
I agree with the tone of you post, notably on my answer to the second half below. But the accounting of the Banchero max is not a problem in the medium term. The finances of the team from the 2028.29 season are fine.
Why? Two reasons. i) Suggs has a declining contract that makes it easy to swallow F-Wagner's and Banchero's max-deals. Indeed, the reason the Magic is over the apron next year is because Suggs is so WILDLY overpaid in 2025.25. But that was done so that when the team gets "interesting", Suggs will be on a normal deal for his contract line.
and ii) we cannot underestimate what 10% annual increases to the salary cap will do to players' salaries. F-Wagner and Banchero are maxed to the "old" CBA salary lines. The max'es that are coming will be ridiculous.
Let me go back to 2028.29 as an example. The cap will be 51M more than the 2025.26 cap
The 2028.29 apron will be 65M more than the 2025.26
Orlando needs to "eat" a bad contact year for 2025.26 to ensure max flexibility in the primer years of the two forward. Which leads to ...
I'm not saying this to be a jerk. I just really like you guys and don't want you to be confused or disappointed with where this team goes this offseason. It's either going to be some meh roster moves to switch out our role players, or a wow move that shakes up the foundation of the team but costs one of the big three. The money forces this unless the team goes deep into the tax to signal win now. If THAT happens, then wow I would be surprised because it would suggest this is an ownership group that is willing to spend money to contend in a title window (aka it ain't happening).
And-1
The Magic is not gonna trade for Garland or Young. And it is ridiculous to think that Orlando would bring in Antetokounmpo. It is mathematically impossible for a team to carry three max players in the new CBA. Full stop.
This off season will be only about trades. And trades that lower the salary line by 2-3M in that.
For example, Anfernee Simons at 27M means a trade that must include, for example, Anthony, Howard and Bitadze, or Caldwell-Pope and Howard.
Salaries gotta end with the Magic taking a shade less salary than sending out.
This is the MAX type of trade the Magic can do this offseason.
As an aside, this is another reason the Magic really don't want the #16. That pick will cost about 1M more in salary than a league min contract.
$3,685,300-rookie vs ~$2,500,000-LLE vet (depends on year's of service).
p.s. Jett Howard's $5,529,506 salary is painful this coming season. Dude's gotta go if only for bean-counting.