twix2500 wrote:So I wasnt going to analyze too much on the foreign players, because there is too much I do not know about many of the international leagues. Meaning I do not know what the epectations are of players at his age, and not sure how stats may differ because of how they are used. But since many in here really intrigued by Saraf I took a dive.
He is an intriging prospect because his size and the position he plays. Great height and length and shows a lot of potential with crafty ball hanlding skills. However, he looks to be very raw. He is a flashy player. So yes his highlights can look good. But that is also one of his problems, he tries to over do the flashiness and many times he cant finish and gets himself in bad position. He is not a great finisher or shooter, and his lack of shooting makes it tougher for him to finish. He shot 28% from three last year and 22% this season from 3. He shot 48% from twos this season. His free throws did improve from last season to this season from 69% to 78% on 3 fga a game. His passing is incouraging because of his flashiness (tough passes that he make) but it also a concern because of his decision making (tough passes he TRIES to take). His assist to turnover ratio is 4.1 ast to 2.5 turnovers (1.64 translate to fraction). You want your assist to turnover ration to be 3 to 1 or higher (3.0 in fractions form) anything below 2 is considered bad. And these are the major flags with him along with not being an elite athlete to overcome his deficiencies (He is an ok athlete, not bad, but not elite). He is going to have to become a much better all around skilled player. He is going to have to improve on his shooting everywhere on the court. His subpar shooting is going to really look bad vs the big athletes in the NBA.
I noticed a lot he is matched up on a bigger player, and i am not sure if that is the defensive strategy or the matchups the offense is trying to get. A lot of context i do not know yet.
No one in the NBA is going to defend him way out here to allow him the space to beat you off the dribble and screen. They are going to sit back, help off of him and dare him to score.
Now that being said I am not advocating not to draft him, but you will have to look at him like the Heat did Jovic. Saraf will likely not be player ready to play for a year or two. The player that fits his profile ceiling would be SGA type of player (not saying quality but type). It is going to take him TIME to hopefully figure things out. He is likely not a plug and play player. He would be a project. And this is likely why he remains a 2nd round prospect.
And here are the goods so I do not seem like I am just harping on him. He has good size and frame. His best skills seems to be in the fullcourt. He looks like he has a good knack for steals 1.3 steals a game. Shows he has potential to be a good defender. I praise him for what he tries to do, because in order to get good, gotta try and do it. But he does need to learn what he can and can not do and work on what his advantages he truly has like his size and length. I would highly suggest he look at Luka and SGA players who know how to his size and leverage instead of speed. His shooting form doesnt look bad, so there should be a path on him learning how to shoot. But HE HAS to learn how to shoot to make him a threat anywhere else.
Well. It's nice that there's effort to learn about Saraf, even if almost everything here is wrong... including the season's stats:)
I will not claim to be impartial as I'm Israeli fan which follows Saraf for like 2.5 years but let me give you some context.
Let's start with statistics. The one you used is EuroCup only. We can discuss whether efficiency is low because of very high level of competition (probably 3rd best in the world after NBA and EuroLeague) or because kind of "rookie wall" Saraf hit somewhere in winter after playing a lot games for Kiriyat-Ata in Israeli league, Israel U18, Ulm and Israel NT almost with no rest. Anyway actual stats for 53 games in EuroCup and G-BBL are 12.5 pts (45.8 / 30.1 / 76.4 - 54.1 ts%), 2.7 rbs, 4.3 ast (2.7 to). 54.1 ts% for lead guard in good European pro-league is pretty good efficiency for kid which started season as 18 y/o. But it's just first of many thing. Saraf's achievements both in Israel U18 and in Ulm are crazily under-appreciated. So. Why Saraf is not "project" but rather probably the most NBA ready player outside high lottery?
First thing to say here: he leads Ulm in both points (should be said that they have very well balanced between their top players) and assists, and he is the team's best ISO scorer and goto-guy when clock is running down. German league is somewhat weaker (but not that much) than French league and certainly weaker than Spanish ACB. But specifically this season Ulm is different story that "generally" German league team. They looked rather good in EuroCup finishing on 50% 9W/9L , they finished 2nd in German BBL regular season just 1 win behind Bayern which is above average EuroLeague team, they also this month swept 3:0 in QF Alba Berlin (which technically was EuroLeague team, but the dead worst one to say the truth) and now lead in SF - 2:1. Being the leader of good pro-team is very important and extremely rare for 18 y/o , for example in Killian Hayes' season in Ulm (which had similar to Saraf stats, with somewhat more efficient scoring) they were not good at all team - also played in EuroCup but was horrible worst team there - 1W/9L, and at best average team in German league (10W/10L when he played there).
Speaking about Euro U18 where Saraf got MVP award. Usually MVP in such tournaments is the best player of winning team. It was not the case here. Israel lost in 2xOT to Serbia in semifinal, Saraf still got MVP award because he clearly was the best player in the field which included Traore, Essengue, Kasparas Jakucionis, Hugo Gonzales and others. It was probably the best performance of any player in any "age-category" Euro championship like ... ever. Saraf averaged 28.1 pts(45 / 36 / 76 split ) , 5.0 rbs, 5.1 ast and 4 stl. No one scored 28+ ppg since 1998. No one scored more than Saraf since 1980s.
Generally Saraf is natural "big time" performer. He also leads right now Ulm in G-BBL playoffs with 14.5 pts (49.1 / 33.3 / 93.5 split - 63.4 ts% ) / 3.7 rbs / 4.3 ast (3.0 to) through 6 games (5W/1L).
Also I think that complains about Saraf's defense are really overblown. Saraf has tendency to overhelp and gamble at times which should be fixed, but he's really not "routinely gets blown by" as some analysts (which probably never seen one full Saraf's game) claim. He stays before his guy pretty well, frequently frustrating opponents and in addition to steals making impact with deflections and getting other team attack to get stuck. He was very good defender against kids his age in Euro U18 (I remind you - he averaged 4 steals per game), and he is not bad defender on rather high pro-level,
I don't see reason why he wouldn't became above average defender in NBA. Speaking about why he is frequently guarding wings and not point-of-attack and his coach occasionally subbing him out for defensive possession. Several reasons. First, his coach doesn't care about Saraf's chances in draft, he has games to win, and he for example has on bench guy which was selected last season to G-league all-defense team (but can't do much on offense), also Saraf is the best PG of the team - and if he's not playing because of fouls problem, the team's attack will get stuck, and also - while Saraf is the PG of Ulm, he's not necessarily smallest among Ulm's players on court so wouldn't 6'2" shooter be more logical choice to guard 6'2" opponent PG than 6'5" Saraf?