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**NBA Draft Discussion 2025**

Moderators: KingDavid, MettaWorldPanda, Wiltside, IggieCC, BFRESH44, QUIZ, heat4life

Who's the guard pick if all available at 20?

Poll ended at Thu Jun 26, 2025 1:35 pm

Jase Richardson
2
9%
Nolan Traore
4
17%
Walter Clayton Jr
14
61%
Ben Saraf
3
13%
 
Total votes: 23

arusinov
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Re: **NBA Draft Discussion 2025** 

Post#1141 » by arusinov » Sun Jun 8, 2025 6:02 pm

twix2500 wrote:So I wasnt going to analyze too much on the foreign players, because there is too much I do not know about many of the international leagues. Meaning I do not know what the epectations are of players at his age, and not sure how stats may differ because of how they are used. But since many in here really intrigued by Saraf I took a dive.

He is an intriging prospect because his size and the position he plays. Great height and length and shows a lot of potential with crafty ball hanlding skills. However, he looks to be very raw. He is a flashy player. So yes his highlights can look good. But that is also one of his problems, he tries to over do the flashiness and many times he cant finish and gets himself in bad position. He is not a great finisher or shooter, and his lack of shooting makes it tougher for him to finish. He shot 28% from three last year and 22% this season from 3. He shot 48% from twos this season. His free throws did improve from last season to this season from 69% to 78% on 3 fga a game. His passing is incouraging because of his flashiness (tough passes that he make) but it also a concern because of his decision making (tough passes he TRIES to take). His assist to turnover ratio is 4.1 ast to 2.5 turnovers (1.64 translate to fraction). You want your assist to turnover ration to be 3 to 1 or higher (3.0 in fractions form) anything below 2 is considered bad. And these are the major flags with him along with not being an elite athlete to overcome his deficiencies (He is an ok athlete, not bad, but not elite). He is going to have to become a much better all around skilled player. He is going to have to improve on his shooting everywhere on the court. His subpar shooting is going to really look bad vs the big athletes in the NBA.

I noticed a lot he is matched up on a bigger player, and i am not sure if that is the defensive strategy or the matchups the offense is trying to get. A lot of context i do not know yet.






No one in the NBA is going to defend him way out here to allow him the space to beat you off the dribble and screen. They are going to sit back, help off of him and dare him to score.

Image


Now that being said I am not advocating not to draft him, but you will have to look at him like the Heat did Jovic. Saraf will likely not be player ready to play for a year or two. The player that fits his profile ceiling would be SGA type of player (not saying quality but type). It is going to take him TIME to hopefully figure things out. He is likely not a plug and play player. He would be a project. And this is likely why he remains a 2nd round prospect.

And here are the goods so I do not seem like I am just harping on him. He has good size and frame. His best skills seems to be in the fullcourt. He looks like he has a good knack for steals 1.3 steals a game. Shows he has potential to be a good defender. I praise him for what he tries to do, because in order to get good, gotta try and do it. But he does need to learn what he can and can not do and work on what his advantages he truly has like his size and length. I would highly suggest he look at Luka and SGA players who know how to his size and leverage instead of speed. His shooting form doesnt look bad, so there should be a path on him learning how to shoot. But HE HAS to learn how to shoot to make him a threat anywhere else.


Well. It's nice that there's effort to learn about Saraf, even if almost everything here is wrong... including the season's stats:)
I will not claim to be impartial as I'm Israeli fan which follows Saraf for like 2.5 years but let me give you some context.

Let's start with statistics. The one you used is EuroCup only. We can discuss whether efficiency is low because of very high level of competition (probably 3rd best in the world after NBA and EuroLeague) or because kind of "rookie wall" Saraf hit somewhere in winter after playing a lot games for Kiriyat-Ata in Israeli league, Israel U18, Ulm and Israel NT almost with no rest. Anyway actual stats for 53 games in EuroCup and G-BBL are 12.5 pts (45.8 / 30.1 / 76.4 - 54.1 ts%), 2.7 rbs, 4.3 ast (2.7 to). 54.1 ts% for lead guard in good European pro-league is pretty good efficiency for kid which started season as 18 y/o. But it's just first of many thing. Saraf's achievements both in Israel U18 and in Ulm are crazily under-appreciated. So. Why Saraf is not "project" but rather probably the most NBA ready player outside high lottery?

First thing to say here: he leads Ulm in both points (should be said that they have very well balanced between their top players) and assists, and he is the team's best ISO scorer and goto-guy when clock is running down. German league is somewhat weaker (but not that much) than French league and certainly weaker than Spanish ACB. But specifically this season Ulm is different story that "generally" German league team. They looked rather good in EuroCup finishing on 50% 9W/9L , they finished 2nd in German BBL regular season just 1 win behind Bayern which is above average EuroLeague team, they also this month swept 3:0 in QF Alba Berlin (which technically was EuroLeague team, but the dead worst one to say the truth) and now lead in SF - 2:1. Being the leader of good pro-team is very important and extremely rare for 18 y/o , for example in Killian Hayes' season in Ulm (which had similar to Saraf stats, with somewhat more efficient scoring) they were not good at all team - also played in EuroCup but was horrible worst team there - 1W/9L, and at best average team in German league (10W/10L when he played there).

Speaking about Euro U18 where Saraf got MVP award. Usually MVP in such tournaments is the best player of winning team. It was not the case here. Israel lost in 2xOT to Serbia in semifinal, Saraf still got MVP award because he clearly was the best player in the field which included Traore, Essengue, Kasparas Jakucionis, Hugo Gonzales and others. It was probably the best performance of any player in any "age-category" Euro championship like ... ever. Saraf averaged 28.1 pts(45 / 36 / 76 split ) , 5.0 rbs, 5.1 ast and 4 stl. No one scored 28+ ppg since 1998. No one scored more than Saraf since 1980s.

Generally Saraf is natural "big time" performer. He also leads right now Ulm in G-BBL playoffs with 14.5 pts (49.1 / 33.3 / 93.5 split - 63.4 ts% ) / 3.7 rbs / 4.3 ast (3.0 to) through 6 games (5W/1L).

Also I think that complains about Saraf's defense are really overblown. Saraf has tendency to overhelp and gamble at times which should be fixed, but he's really not "routinely gets blown by" as some analysts (which probably never seen one full Saraf's game) claim. He stays before his guy pretty well, frequently frustrating opponents and in addition to steals making impact with deflections and getting other team attack to get stuck. He was very good defender against kids his age in Euro U18 (I remind you - he averaged 4 steals per game), and he is not bad defender on rather high pro-level,
I don't see reason why he wouldn't became above average defender in NBA. Speaking about why he is frequently guarding wings and not point-of-attack and his coach occasionally subbing him out for defensive possession. Several reasons. First, his coach doesn't care about Saraf's chances in draft, he has games to win, and he for example has on bench guy which was selected last season to G-league all-defense team (but can't do much on offense), also Saraf is the best PG of the team - and if he's not playing because of fouls problem, the team's attack will get stuck, and also - while Saraf is the PG of Ulm, he's not necessarily smallest among Ulm's players on court so wouldn't 6'2" shooter be more logical choice to guard 6'2" opponent PG than 6'5" Saraf?
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Re: **NBA Draft Discussion 2025** 

Post#1142 » by greg4012 » Sun Jun 8, 2025 6:04 pm

twix2500 wrote:
greg4012 wrote:
twix2500 wrote:
You are not providing context because you are comparing players whos games and even positions were different. On here Saraf is on people radar specifically because of his passing. His passing is not good. Its not even in the okay range, its well below bad.

When you grading a player passing as a true point guard to provide better context because many do not understand the assist to turnover ratio.

Bad 2 >
Ok 2<3
Good 3<


Objectively wrong. Unless no young PG prospect is ever good. Is it your contention that there hasn't been a "Good" young passing guard prospect enter the draft in years? Or that Luka, Harden, Trae, Lamelo were not "Good" passing PG prospects?

You should never be assessing 18-19 year old guard prospects as if their stats are what will translate apples to apples. It's identifying traits and applying projection of scalability and progress to the NBA game in conjunction with the sort of development typical for players in early 20s.

I def appreciate your point about looking at a prospect thru the lens of what are the skillsets they provide. Saraf is actually a pretty high rate scorer tho. Shooting needs to continue on his current progression for any real NBA viability. His C&S numbers are promising, his pull-up 3 ball needs to catch up.


Anything below 2 is bad. The range from bad to good is 2 to 3. The closer you get to 2 the more of a concern your passing becomes, the closer you get to 3 the less concer of you passing becomes. Saraf is WELL below 2. Two is the point of concern, not 3.

twix2500 wrote:So I wasnt going to analyze too much on the foreign players, because there is too much I do not know about many of the international leagues. Meaning I do not know what the epectations are of players at his age, and not sure how stats may differ because of how they are used. But since many in here really intrigued by Saraf I took a dive.

He is an intriging prospect because his size and the position he plays. Great height and length and shows a lot of potential with crafty ball hanlding skills. However, he looks to be very raw. He is a flashy player. So yes his highlights can look good. But that is also one of his problems, he tries to over do the flashiness and many times he cant finish and gets himself in bad position. He is not a great finisher or shooter, and his lack of shooting makes it tougher for him to finish. He shot 28% from three last year and 22% this season from 3. He shot 48% from twos this season. His free throws did improve from last season to this season from 69% to 78% on 3 fga a game. His passing is incouraging because of his flashiness (tough passes that he make) but it also a concern because of his decision making (tough passes he TRIES to take). His assist to turnover ratio is 4.1 ast to 2.5 turnovers (1.64 translate to fraction). You want your assist to turnover ration to be 3 to 1 or higher (3.0 in fractions form) anything below 2 is considered bad. And these are the major flags with him along with not being an elite athlete to overcome his deficiencies (He is an ok athlete, not bad, but not elite). He is going to have to become a much better all around skilled player. He is going to have to improve on his shooting everywhere on the court. His subpar shooting is going to really look bad vs the big athletes in the NBA.


Please keep repeating the same thing as if that gives it more merit. I see you've gone from admitting to not knowing anything about assessing international prospects to an authority as to how to gauge their statistical outputs and impact in very short order.
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Re: **NBA Draft Discussion 2025** 

Post#1143 » by twix2500 » Sun Jun 8, 2025 6:04 pm

greg4012 wrote:
twix2500 wrote:Lets compare players who roles and profile to Ben Saraf are similar coming to the NBA.

Ben Saraf 6'5 ht,
12.8 pts, 48% 2p%, 22% 3p%, 2.2 rbs, 1.3 stls, 4.6 ast to 2.5 to (1.64)

Shai Gilgous-Alexander 6'4.5 ht
14.4 pts, 50% 2p%, 40% 3p%, 4.1 rbs, 1.6 stls, 5.1 ast to 2.7 to (1.84)

Lonzo Ball 6'6 ht
14.6 pts, 73% 2p%, 41% 3p%, 6.0 rbs, 1.8 stls, 7.6 ast to 2.5 to (3.04)

Lamelo Ball 6'6 ht
17.0 pts, 45% 2p%, 25% 3p%, 7.6 rbs, 1.6 stls, 6.8 ast to 2.5 to (2.72)

Assist to Turnover Ratio grading.
2 > Bad
2< Ok <3
3< Good


Yup Lonzo Ball (a player 8 drafted ago) is virtually the only 18-19 year old first round guard prospect on record meeting your threshold to be a "good" passing prospect. And everything about Lonzo Ball's analytic profile was top tier. He was pretty much 1 of 1 in that regard.

Seems like a very flawed lens unless you truly believe there havent been any good passing prospects since then. And then, it's still flawed bc that's simply not true.

You mentioned previously the difficulty of assessing international prospects due to not having good gauge on context of league's/competition. Thats definitely an important qualifier. For instance, Lamelo played in the Australian NBL prior to the draft. THat league is FAR inferior to the German leage and Eurocup competition in which Saraf played this past season. Here's a good way to contextualize that with a player Heat fans should be familiar with:

After Miami drafted James Ennis in the 2nd round of the 2013 NBA draft, they sent him overseas to play in the Australian NBL for a season. In that season, he came in 3rd in NBL MVP voting while putting up 21.5 ppg, 7 rpg, 2 apg, and 2.3 stocks per game. After flaming out of the NBA a few seasons later, Ennis went to a Russian pro league that is lower tier than the German league and averaged 13 ppg.

In raw stat comparison, it's pretty important to account for minutes per game. In these euro leagues, it's typical for players to be part of a deeper rotation and thus not usually push 30+ mpg. Saraf averages under 24 mpg for Ratiopharm. His per 36 numbers are actually very similar to Lamelo Ball's season in the NBL playing against far worse competition. Check out the per 36 stat comparison for pre-draft seasons of Saraf, Lamelo, and Luka (for elite tier context--Luka played in even better comp than Saraf, and WAY better than Lamelo).

https://www.tankathon.com/players/compare?players=ben-saraf--lamelo-ball--luka-doncic


Its not MY threshold its all coaches threshold. These player roles were the same as Saraf. You are trying to compare scorers like James Harden who was a scorer to ball distributors. He wasnt drafted because of his passing.

You are working to hard to try to find an excuse for Saraf. There is a reason he is mostly looked at as a 2nd rounder.
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Re: **NBA Draft Discussion 2025** 

Post#1144 » by twix2500 » Sun Jun 8, 2025 6:09 pm

I think you are bothered by the term "GOOD". Do you want me to say Elite? Regardless, Saraf is well below in the bad range.
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Re: **NBA Draft Discussion 2025** 

Post#1145 » by greg4012 » Sun Jun 8, 2025 6:12 pm

twix2500 wrote:
greg4012 wrote:
twix2500 wrote:Lets compare players who roles and profile to Ben Saraf are similar coming to the NBA.

Ben Saraf 6'5 ht,
12.8 pts, 48% 2p%, 22% 3p%, 2.2 rbs, 1.3 stls, 4.6 ast to 2.5 to (1.64)

Shai Gilgous-Alexander 6'4.5 ht
14.4 pts, 50% 2p%, 40% 3p%, 4.1 rbs, 1.6 stls, 5.1 ast to 2.7 to (1.84)

Lonzo Ball 6'6 ht
14.6 pts, 73% 2p%, 41% 3p%, 6.0 rbs, 1.8 stls, 7.6 ast to 2.5 to (3.04)

Lamelo Ball 6'6 ht
17.0 pts, 45% 2p%, 25% 3p%, 7.6 rbs, 1.6 stls, 6.8 ast to 2.5 to (2.72)

Assist to Turnover Ratio grading.
2 > Bad
2< Ok <3
3< Good


Yup Lonzo Ball (a player 8 drafted ago) is virtually the only 18-19 year old first round guard prospect on record meeting your threshold to be a "good" passing prospect. And everything about Lonzo Ball's analytic profile was top tier. He was pretty much 1 of 1 in that regard.

Seems like a very flawed lens unless you truly believe there havent been any good passing prospects since then. And then, it's still flawed bc that's simply not true.

You mentioned previously the difficulty of assessing international prospects due to not having good gauge on context of league's/competition. Thats definitely an important qualifier. For instance, Lamelo played in the Australian NBL prior to the draft. THat league is FAR inferior to the German leage and Eurocup competition in which Saraf played this past season. Here's a good way to contextualize that with a player Heat fans should be familiar with:

After Miami drafted James Ennis in the 2nd round of the 2013 NBA draft, they sent him overseas to play in the Australian NBL for a season. In that season, he came in 3rd in NBL MVP voting while putting up 21.5 ppg, 7 rpg, 2 apg, and 2.3 stocks per game. After flaming out of the NBA a few seasons later, Ennis went to a Russian pro league that is lower tier than the German league and averaged 13 ppg.

In raw stat comparison, it's pretty important to account for minutes per game. In these euro leagues, it's typical for players to be part of a deeper rotation and thus not usually push 30+ mpg. Saraf averages under 24 mpg for Ratiopharm. His per 36 numbers are actually very similar to Lamelo Ball's season in the NBL playing against far worse competition. Check out the per 36 stat comparison for pre-draft seasons of Saraf, Lamelo, and Luka (for elite tier context--Luka played in even better comp than Saraf, and WAY better than Lamelo).

https://www.tankathon.com/players/compare?players=ben-saraf--lamelo-ball--luka-doncic


Its not MY threshold its all coaches threshold. These player roles were the same as Saraf. You are trying to compare scorers to ball distributors like James Harden who was a scorer. He wasnt drafted because of his passing.

You are working to hard to try to find an excuse for Saraf. There is a reason he is mostly looked at as a 2nd rounder.


I believe Saraf will be a top 20 player from this draft, at minimum. I don't really care what he is mostly looked at as from the lens of media draft coverage.

If Saraf scores at a commensurate or higher rate than the players I'm contextualizing his passing with (while playing tougher competition than most), then what puts him squarely in the bucket of distributor rather than the scorer bucket others get the benefit of??
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Re: **NBA Draft Discussion 2025** 

Post#1146 » by greg4012 » Sun Jun 8, 2025 6:13 pm

twix2500 wrote:I think you are bothered by the term "GOOD". Do you want me to say Elite? Regardless, Saraf is well below in the bad range.


I'm not bothered. I do take issue with you trying to turn a bball discussion into a projection of me being bothered. That's the classic distract and deflect tactic. Not a fan.

I just don't think your statistical assessment is "GOOD"
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Re: **NBA Draft Discussion 2025** 

Post#1147 » by arusinov » Sun Jun 8, 2025 6:13 pm

twix2500 wrote:
greg4012 wrote:
twix2500 wrote:Lets compare players who roles and profile to Ben Saraf are similar coming to the NBA.

Ben Saraf 6'5 ht,
12.8 pts, 48% 2p%, 22% 3p%, 2.2 rbs, 1.3 stls, 4.6 ast to 2.5 to (1.64)

Shai Gilgous-Alexander 6'4.5 ht
14.4 pts, 50% 2p%, 40% 3p%, 4.1 rbs, 1.6 stls, 5.1 ast to 2.7 to (1.84)

Lonzo Ball 6'6 ht
14.6 pts, 73% 2p%, 41% 3p%, 6.0 rbs, 1.8 stls, 7.6 ast to 2.5 to (3.04)

Lamelo Ball 6'6 ht
17.0 pts, 45% 2p%, 25% 3p%, 7.6 rbs, 1.6 stls, 6.8 ast to 2.5 to (2.72)

Assist to Turnover Ratio grading.
2 > Bad
2< Ok <3
3< Good


Yup Lonzo Ball (a player 8 drafted ago) is virtually the only 18-19 year old first round guard prospect on record meeting your threshold to be a "good" passing prospect. And everything about Lonzo Ball's analytic profile was top tier. He was pretty much 1 of 1 in that regard.

Seems like a very flawed lens unless you truly believe there havent been any good passing prospects since then. And then, it's still flawed bc that's simply not true.

You mentioned previously the difficulty of assessing international prospects due to not having good gauge on context of league's/competition. Thats definitely an important qualifier. For instance, Lamelo played in the Australian NBL prior to the draft. THat league is FAR inferior to the German leage and Eurocup competition in which Saraf played this past season. Here's a good way to contextualize that with a player Heat fans should be familiar with:

After Miami drafted James Ennis in the 2nd round of the 2013 NBA draft, they sent him overseas to play in the Australian NBL for a season. In that season, he came in 3rd in NBL MVP voting while putting up 21.5 ppg, 7 rpg, 2 apg, and 2.3 stocks per game. After flaming out of the NBA a few seasons later, Ennis went to a Russian pro league that is lower tier than the German league and averaged 13 ppg.

In raw stat comparison, it's pretty important to account for minutes per game. In these euro leagues, it's typical for players to be part of a deeper rotation and thus not usually push 30+ mpg. Saraf averages under 24 mpg for Ratiopharm. His per 36 numbers are actually very similar to Lamelo Ball's season in the NBL playing against far worse competition. Check out the per 36 stat comparison for pre-draft seasons of Saraf, Lamelo, and Luka (for elite tier context--Luka played in even better comp than Saraf, and WAY better than Lamelo).

https://www.tankathon.com/players/compare?players=ben-saraf--lamelo-ball--luka-doncic


Its not MY threshold its all coaches threshold. These player roles were the same as Saraf. You are trying to compare scorers to ball distributors like James Harden who was a scorer. He wasnt drafted because of his passing.

You are working to hard to try to find an excuse for Saraf. There is a reason he is mostly looked at as a 2nd rounder.


Saraf is leading scorer of good European pro-team and their goto ISO scorer. He also scored 28 ppg in Euro U18 which no one did for 25+ years (actually Saraf is great scorer against kids his age). People have no idea what they are talking about when they think that "he is mostly looked at as a 2nd rounder" - majority of players which will be selected in 1st round would not even be in rotation of this season Ulm. And Saraf is their top-3 and arguably best player.
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Re: **NBA Draft Discussion 2025** 

Post#1148 » by twix2500 » Sun Jun 8, 2025 6:16 pm

greg4012 wrote:
twix2500 wrote:
greg4012 wrote:
Objectively wrong. Unless no young PG prospect is ever good. Is it your contention that there hasn't been a "Good" young passing guard prospect enter the draft in years? Or that Luka, Harden, Trae, Lamelo were not "Good" passing PG prospects?

You should never be assessing 18-19 year old guard prospects as if their stats are what will translate apples to apples. It's identifying traits and applying projection of scalability and progress to the NBA game in conjunction with the sort of development typical for players in early 20s.

I def appreciate your point about looking at a prospect thru the lens of what are the skillsets they provide. Saraf is actually a pretty high rate scorer tho. Shooting needs to continue on his current progression for any real NBA viability. His C&S numbers are promising, his pull-up 3 ball needs to catch up.


Anything below 2 is bad. The range from bad to good is 2 to 3. The closer you get to 2 the more of a concern your passing becomes, the closer you get to 3 the less concer of you passing becomes. Saraf is WELL below 2. Two is the point of concern, not 3.

twix2500 wrote:So I wasnt going to analyze too much on the foreign players, because there is too much I do not know about many of the international leagues. Meaning I do not know what the epectations are of players at his age, and not sure how stats may differ because of how they are used. But since many in here really intrigued by Saraf I took a dive.

He is an intriging prospect because his size and the position he plays. Great height and length and shows a lot of potential with crafty ball hanlding skills. However, he looks to be very raw. He is a flashy player. So yes his highlights can look good. But that is also one of his problems, he tries to over do the flashiness and many times he cant finish and gets himself in bad position. He is not a great finisher or shooter, and his lack of shooting makes it tougher for him to finish. He shot 28% from three last year and 22% this season from 3. He shot 48% from twos this season. His free throws did improve from last season to this season from 69% to 78% on 3 fga a game. His passing is incouraging because of his flashiness (tough passes that he make) but it also a concern because of his decision making (tough passes he TRIES to take). His assist to turnover ratio is 4.1 ast to 2.5 turnovers (1.64 translate to fraction). You want your assist to turnover ration to be 3 to 1 or higher (3.0 in fractions form) anything below 2 is considered bad. And these are the major flags with him along with not being an elite athlete to overcome his deficiencies (He is an ok athlete, not bad, but not elite). He is going to have to become a much better all around skilled player. He is going to have to improve on his shooting everywhere on the court. His subpar shooting is going to really look bad vs the big athletes in the NBA.


Please keep repeating the same thing as if that gives it more merit. I see you've gone from admitting to not knowing anything about assessing international prospects to an authority as to how to gauge their statistical outputs and impact in very short order.


I am trying to explain to you how assist to turnovers ratio is graded. I am not trying to give anything i say merit. Because its not MY grade. This is been an establish measure before me. I did not create it. You are trying to give merit to what you see in a isolated HIGHLIGHT. Rather you like it or not, is not something I care about. I thought you had a misunderstanding, but I see you just do not like it personally. That is fine.
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Re: **NBA Draft Discussion 2025** 

Post#1149 » by twix2500 » Sun Jun 8, 2025 6:17 pm

arusinov wrote:
twix2500 wrote:
greg4012 wrote:
Yup Lonzo Ball (a player 8 drafted ago) is virtually the only 18-19 year old first round guard prospect on record meeting your threshold to be a "good" passing prospect. And everything about Lonzo Ball's analytic profile was top tier. He was pretty much 1 of 1 in that regard.

Seems like a very flawed lens unless you truly believe there havent been any good passing prospects since then. And then, it's still flawed bc that's simply not true.

You mentioned previously the difficulty of assessing international prospects due to not having good gauge on context of league's/competition. Thats definitely an important qualifier. For instance, Lamelo played in the Australian NBL prior to the draft. THat league is FAR inferior to the German leage and Eurocup competition in which Saraf played this past season. Here's a good way to contextualize that with a player Heat fans should be familiar with:

After Miami drafted James Ennis in the 2nd round of the 2013 NBA draft, they sent him overseas to play in the Australian NBL for a season. In that season, he came in 3rd in NBL MVP voting while putting up 21.5 ppg, 7 rpg, 2 apg, and 2.3 stocks per game. After flaming out of the NBA a few seasons later, Ennis went to a Russian pro league that is lower tier than the German league and averaged 13 ppg.

In raw stat comparison, it's pretty important to account for minutes per game. In these euro leagues, it's typical for players to be part of a deeper rotation and thus not usually push 30+ mpg. Saraf averages under 24 mpg for Ratiopharm. His per 36 numbers are actually very similar to Lamelo Ball's season in the NBL playing against far worse competition. Check out the per 36 stat comparison for pre-draft seasons of Saraf, Lamelo, and Luka (for elite tier context--Luka played in even better comp than Saraf, and WAY better than Lamelo).

https://www.tankathon.com/players/compare?players=ben-saraf--lamelo-ball--luka-doncic


Its not MY threshold its all coaches threshold. These player roles were the same as Saraf. You are trying to compare scorers to ball distributors like James Harden who was a scorer? He wasnt drafted because of his passing.

You are working to hard to try to find an excuse for Saraf. There is a reason he is mostly looked at as a 2nd rounder.


Saraf is leading scorer of good European pro-team and their goto ISO scorer. He also scored 28 ppg in Euro U18 which no one did for 25+ years (actually Saraf is great scorer against kids his age). People have no idea what they are talking about when they think that "he is mostly looked at as a 2nd rounder" - majority of players which will be selected in 1st round would not even be in rotation of this season Ulm. And Saraf is their top-3 and arguably best player.


Ok for the SARAF fans. Why is he considered a 2nd rounder? What is the problem with his game?
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Re: **NBA Draft Discussion 2025** 

Post#1150 » by greg4012 » Sun Jun 8, 2025 6:20 pm

twix2500 wrote:
greg4012 wrote:
twix2500 wrote:
Anything below 2 is bad. The range from bad to good is 2 to 3. The closer you get to 2 the more of a concern your passing becomes, the closer you get to 3 the less concer of you passing becomes. Saraf is WELL below 2. Two is the point of concern, not 3.



Please keep repeating the same thing as if that gives it more merit. I see you've gone from admitting to not knowing anything about assessing international prospects to an authority as to how to gauge their statistical outputs and impact in very short order.


I am trying to explain to you how assist to turnovers ratio is graded. I am not trying to give anything i say merit. Because its not MY grade. This is been an establish measure before me. I did not create it. You are trying to give merit to what you see in a isolated HIGHLIGHT. Rather you like it or not, is not something I care about. I thought you had a misunderstanding, but I see you just do not like it personally. That is fine.


I understand that in terms of established NBA players aiming to compete at NBA level or upperclassmen college players being graded for their current season. My point is that it doesn't translate well for assessing and projecting 18-9 year old NBA draft prospects that are either the youngest players in college or the youngest players in professional european leagues.
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Re: **NBA Draft Discussion 2025** 

Post#1151 » by greg4012 » Sun Jun 8, 2025 6:21 pm

twix2500 wrote:
arusinov wrote:
twix2500 wrote:
Its not MY threshold its all coaches threshold. These player roles were the same as Saraf. You are trying to compare scorers to ball distributors like James Harden who was a scorer? He wasnt drafted because of his passing.

You are working to hard to try to find an excuse for Saraf. There is a reason he is mostly looked at as a 2nd rounder.


Saraf is leading scorer of good European pro-team and their goto ISO scorer. He also scored 28 ppg in Euro U18 which no one did for 25+ years (actually Saraf is great scorer against kids his age). People have no idea what they are talking about when they think that "he is mostly looked at as a 2nd rounder" - majority of players which will be selected in 1st round would not even be in rotation of this season Ulm. And Saraf is their top-3 and arguably best player.


Ok for the SARAF fans. Why is he considered a 2nd rounder? What is the problem with his game?


Is he a 2nd rounder if he doesn't go in the 2nd round? Are you basing this solely off of some random draft websites?
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Re: **NBA Draft Discussion 2025** 

Post#1152 » by twix2500 » Sun Jun 8, 2025 6:21 pm

Nevermind I am stepping back. I will let you argue with the teams scouts, and tell them he is as good of a prospect as Luka, Harden, Ricky Rubio, Lonzo Ball, Lamelo Ball etc and he should be top five lotto pick.

I am moving on
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Re: **NBA Draft Discussion 2025** 

Post#1153 » by arusinov » Sun Jun 8, 2025 6:22 pm

twix2500 wrote:
greg4012 wrote:
twix2500 wrote:
Anything below 2 is bad. The range from bad to good is 2 to 3. The closer you get to 2 the more of a concern your passing becomes, the closer you get to 3 the less concer of you passing becomes. Saraf is WELL below 2. Two is the point of concern, not 3.



Please keep repeating the same thing as if that gives it more merit. I see you've gone from admitting to not knowing anything about assessing international prospects to an authority as to how to gauge their statistical outputs and impact in very short order.


I am trying to explain to you how assist to turnovers ratio is graded. I am not trying to give anything i say merit. Because its not MY grade. This is been an establish measure before me. I did not create it. You are trying to give merit to what you see in a isolated HIGHLIGHT. Rather you like it or not, is not something I care about. I thought you had a misunderstanding, but I see you just do not like it personally. That is fine.


You think that Saraf is "distributor" and not efficient scorer. In fact Saraf is efficient for 18 y/o lead guard playing against strong competition, score-first PG (and developed as PG in last couple of years - he was mostly SG before). He is also probably greatest scorer against kids his age in Europe in last 25+ years.
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Re: **NBA Draft Discussion 2025** 

Post#1154 » by greg4012 » Sun Jun 8, 2025 6:23 pm

twix2500 wrote:Nevermind I am stepping back. I will let you argue with the teams scouts, and tell them he is as good of a prospect as Luka, Harden, Ricky Rubio, Lonzo Ball, Lamelo Ball etc and he should be top five lotto pick.

I am moving on


Projection, deflection and distraction. You hit the big 3 in 2 sentences!

https://www.tankathon.com/players/compare?players=ben-saraf--ricky-rubio
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Re: **NBA Draft Discussion 2025** 

Post#1155 » by arusinov » Sun Jun 8, 2025 6:24 pm

twix2500 wrote:Nevermind I am stepping back. I will let you argue with the teams scouts, and tell them he is as good of a prospect as Luka, Harden, Ricky Rubio, Lonzo Ball, Lamelo Ball etc and he should be top five lotto pick.

I am moving on


The problem is that you know nothing about the player, and you didn't even find correct stats for the season. And some of "analysts" are just as lazy.
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Re: **NBA Draft Discussion 2025** 

Post#1156 » by twix2500 » Sun Jun 8, 2025 6:27 pm

arusinov wrote:
twix2500 wrote:Nevermind I am stepping back. I will let you argue with the teams scouts, and tell them he is as good of a prospect as Luka, Harden, Ricky Rubio, Lonzo Ball, Lamelo Ball etc and he should be top five lotto pick.

I am moving on


The problem is that you know nothing about the player, and you didn't even find correct stats for the season. And some of "analysts" are just as lazy.


Fine, when he gets drafted you argue with the NBA. I did not know this guy had a fanatic fan base. This is like when I got into it with the Duke guy who was trying to tell me Luke Kennard was going to be a star, and got all emotional when I critiqued his game coming out of college.
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Re: **NBA Draft Discussion 2025** 

Post#1157 » by twix2500 » Sun Jun 8, 2025 6:29 pm

What ever happened to that guy that swore I was wrong about Aleksej Pokusevski? This is why I stay out of saying anything about a Euro player. They try to create some loophole narative for a Euro player. I got jumped when I said Mario Hezonja was a low IQ player prospect.
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Re: **NBA Draft Discussion 2025** 

Post#1158 » by arusinov » Sun Jun 8, 2025 7:00 pm

twix2500 wrote:What ever happened to that guy that swore I was wrong about Aleksej Pokusevski? This is why I stay out of saying anything about a Euro player. They try to create some loophole narative for a Euro player. I got jumped when I said Mario Hezonja was a low IQ player prospect.


Are there less similar cases than Pokusevski and Saraf?? You really should work hard to find...

Literally the only similarity is that they are young Europeans. Pokusevski played for Olympiacos 2nd team in Greece 2nd league (even there he wasn't really great), he played like in 2 or 3 games for Olympiacos -main team all in garbage minutes. He also scored 10 ppg in Euro U18 on bad efficiency.

He had zero accomplishments and was selected solely based on potential (7 ft guy with some guard skills and can shoot... a bit).

I never liked Hezonija by the way for simple reason that he couldn't really get into Barcelona rotation. Once again his selection was mostly on potential - he scored efficiently and was clearly good athlete, so the fact that he played 15 min per game scoring less than 6 ppg (with 1.1 ast/1.1 to) was overlooked

I understand that people tend to pile all Europeans together but really there's little similarity between Saraf and Hezonija, while Saraf and Pokusevski are really direct opposite situations.
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Re: **NBA Draft Discussion 2025** 

Post#1159 » by Kobewade11 » Sun Jun 8, 2025 7:00 pm

I’ll be completely honest, I want nothing to do with Saraf and his game is only part of the reason why.
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Re: **NBA Draft Discussion 2025** 

Post#1160 » by twix2500 » Sun Jun 8, 2025 7:21 pm

arusinov wrote:
twix2500 wrote:What ever happened to that guy that swore I was wrong about Aleksej Pokusevski? This is why I stay out of saying anything about a Euro player. They try to create some loophole narative for a Euro player. I got jumped when I said Mario Hezonja was a low IQ player prospect.


Are there less similar cases than Pokusevski and Saraf?? You really should work hard to find...

Literally the only similarity is that they are young Europeans. Pokusevski played for Olympiacos 2nd team in Greece 2nd league (even there he wasn't really great), he played like in 2 or 3 games for Olympiacos -main team all in garbage minutes. He also scored 10 ppg in Euro U18 on bad efficiency.

He had zero accomplishments and was selected solely based on potential (7 ft guy with some guard skills and can shoot... a bit).

I never liked Hezonija by the way for simple reason that he couldn't really get into Barcelona rotation. Once again his selection was mostly on potential - he scored efficiently and was clearly good athlete, so the fact that he played 15 min per game scoring less than 6 ppg (with 1.1 ast/1.1 to) was overlooked

I understand that people tend to pile all Europeans together but really there's little similarity between Saraf and Hezonija, while Saraf and Pokusevski are really direct opposite situations.


No its people come on here and use the same narrative for all European players. I took my time this morning and watched two full games to give my honest critique. I do not care about a highlight. Those who come here and cant call out the negatives about a player as well as their positives are not giving any honest critiques. In Pokusevski, He is one of the few players I didnt think should be drafted at all. And the excuse was oh I dont understand how the Euro league pipeline works etc. Mario Henzonja, I felt he was a first round prospect but the lottery was why too high IMO. I watched his games and the biggest concerned I had was his IQ, and someone would show me a highlight of a tough pass he made in isolation as evidence I was wrong and his IQ is high. Henzonja couldnt make it in the league at all. One of the advantages people say is that European players play against older adults, in which gives you a better idea of his effectiveness. But you coming on here and say well he was a scorer when he played people his age. But the goal is to see how he will play amoung MEN in the NBA, so that is why him playing against adults is a better measuring stick. Its just like I do not care about Americans kids highschool productivity, once they start playing in college.

Sudden you say I am using incorrect stats. Then who is this?

https://www.euroleaguebasketball.net/en/eurocup/players/ben-saraf/011437/

I am okay with foreign players, I just hate when a fan of one of those players hide behind the idea that the league is different and you dont understand it thus you cant critique. At the end of the day, Saraf wants to play in the NBA not the Euroleague, so the critiques need to be how his game translates to the NBA.

And this room doesnt want a project. They want a player that can contribute at a high level next season. And I have a feeling the Heat also are not looking for a project like Jovic that will take years to contribute at a high level. I do not see Saraf from the two games I watched against grown men of lesser nba talent that he is a guy ready to contribute his rookie season in the NBA on a team trying to win. He looks like a player that needs to go to a team that has the time and patience to develop him. He has talent but he is raw.

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